Risk and global change : developing scientific methods for advocacy and awareness raising

Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.

Leaf-cutting ant attack in initial pine plantations and growth of defoliated plants

The objective of this work was to evaluate the natural attack by Acromyrmex crassispinus in initial Pinus taeda plantations without control measures against ants, as well as the effect of defoliation in seedlings of P. taeda. Evaluations of the attack of leaf-cutting ants on P. taeda plantations were done monthly in the first six months, then 9 and 12 months after planting. The percentages of plants that were naturally attacked by ants were registered. The effect of defoliation was evaluated by artificial defoliation, simulating the natural patterns of attack by A. crassispinus on P. taeda seedlings. The natural attack of A. crassispinus was greater during the first months after planting, being more intense in the first 30 days. Artificial defoliation indicated that there were no significant losses in diameter and height in plants with less than 75% defoliation. However, there were significant losses in diameter and height in plants with 100% defoliation, independently of the cut of the apical meristem, and also plant death. The control of leaf-cutting ants in P. taeda plantings, in which A. crassispinus is the most frequent leaf-cutting ant, should be intense only at the beginning of planting, since the most severe attacks occur during this time.

Functional connectivity of reward processing in the brain

Controversial results have been reported concerning the neural mechanisms involved in the processing of rewards and punishments. On the one hand, there is evidence suggesting that monetary gains and losses activate a similar fronto-subcortical network. On the other hand, results of recent studies imply that reward and punishment may engage distinct neural mechanisms. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) we investigated both regional and interregional functional connectivity patterns while participants performed a gambling task featuring unexpectedly high monetary gains and losses. Classical univariate statistical analysis showed that monetary gains and losses activated a similar fronto-striatallimbic network, in which main activation peaks were observed bilaterally in the ventral striatum. Functional connectivity analysis showed similar responses for gain and loss conditions in the insular cortex, the amygdala, and the hippocampus that correlated with the activity observed in the seed region ventral striatum, with the connectivity to the amygdala appearing more pronounced after losses. Larger functional connectivity was found to the medial orbitofrontal cortex for negative outcomes. The fact that different functional patterns were obtained with both analyses suggests that the brain activations observed in the classical univariate approach identifi es the involvement of different functional networks in the current task. These results stress the importance of studying functional connectivity in addition to standard fMRI analysis in reward-related studies.

Role of fat oxidation in the long-term stabilization of body weight in obese women.

Two studies were performed to investigate the association between body fat mass and fat oxidation. The first, a cross-sectional study of 106 obese women maintaining stable body weight, showed that these two variables were significantly correlated (r = 0.56, P less than 0.001) and the regression coefficient indicated that a 10-kg change in fat mass corresponded to a change in fat oxidation of approximately 20 g/d. The second, a prospective study, validated this estimate and quantifies the long-term adaptations in fat oxidation resulting from body fat loss. Twenty-four moderately obese women were studied under controlled dietary conditions at stable weight before and after mean weight and fat losses of 12.7 and 9.8 kg, respectively. The reduction in fat oxidation was identical to that predicted by the above regression. We conclude that changes in fat mass significantly affect fat oxidation and that this process may contribute to the long-term regulation of fat and energy balance in obese individuals.

Nitrogen fluxes from irrigated common‑bean as affected by mulching and mineral fertilization

The objective of this work was to measure the fluxes of N2O‑N and NH3‑N throughout the growing season of irrigated common‑bean (Phaseolus vulgaris), as affected by mulching and mineral fertilization. Fluxes of N2O‑N and NH3‑N were evaluated in areas with or without Congo signal grass mulching (Urochloa ruziziensis) or mineral fertilization. Fluxes of N were also measured in a native Cerrado area, which served as reference. Total N2O‑N and NH3‑N emissions were positively related to the increasing concentrations of moisture, ammonium, and nitrate in the crop system, within 0.5 m soil depth. Carbon content in the substrate and microbial biomass within 0.1 m soil depth were favoured by Congo signal grass and related to higher emissions of N2O‑N, regardless of N fertilization. Emission factors (N losses from the applied mineral nitrogen) for N2O‑N (0.01-0.02%) and NH3‑N (0.3-0.6%) were lower than the default value recognized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Mulch of Congo signal grass benefits N2O‑N emission regardless of N fertilization.

Salt tolerance and regulation of gas exchange and hormonal homeostasis by auxin-priming in wheat

The objective of this work was to assess the regulatory effects of auxin-priming on gas exchange and hormonal homeostasis in spring wheat subjected to saline conditions. Seeds of MH-97 (salt-intolerant) and Inqlab-91 (salt-tolerant) cultivars were subjected to 11 priming treatments (three hormones x three concentrations + two controls) and evaluated under saline (15 dS m-1) and nonsaline (2.84 dS m-1) conditions. The priming treatments consisted of: 5.71, 8.56, and 11.42 × 10-4 mol L-1 indoleacetic acid; 4.92, 7.38, and 9.84 × 10-4 mol L-1 indolebutyric acid; 4.89, 7.34, and 9.79 × 10-4 mol L-1 tryptophan; and a control with hydroprimed seeds. A negative control with nonprimed seeds was also evaluated. All priming agents diminished the effects of salinity on endogenous abscisic acid concentration in the salt-intolerant cultivar. Grain yield was positively correlated with net CO2 assimilation rate and endogenous indoleacetic acid concentration, and it was negatively correlated with abscisic acid and free polyamine concentrations. In general, the priming treatment with tryptophan at 4.89 × 10-4 mol L-1 was the most effective in minimizing yield losses and reductions in net CO2 assimilation rate, under salt stress conditions. Hormonal homeostasis increases net CO2 assimilation rate and confers tolerance to salinity on spring wheat.

Maintenance requirement and deposition efficiency of lysine in pigs

The objective of this work was to determine the maintenance requirement and the deposition efficiency of lysine in growing pigs. It was used the incomplete changeover experimental design, with replicates over time. Twelve castrated pigs with average body weight (BW) of 52±2 kg were kept in metabolism crates with a controlled temperature of 22ºC. The diets were formulated to supply 30, 50, 60, and 70% of the expected requirements of standardized lysine, and provided at 2.6 times the energy requirements for maintenance. The trial lasted 24 days and was divided into two periods of 12 days: seven days for animal adaptation to the diet and five days for sample collection. The increasing content of lysine in the diet did not affect dry matter intake of the pigs. The amount of nitrogen excreted was 47% of the nitrogen intake, of which 35% was excreted through feces and 65% through urine. The estimated endogenous losses of lysine were 36.4 mg kg-1 BW0.75. The maintenance requirement of lysine for pigs weighing around 50 kg is 40.4 mg kg-1 BW0.75, and the deposition efficiency of lysine is 90%.

Smooth transition or permanent exit? Evidence on job prospects of displaced industrial workers

This article examines the job prospects of displaced industrial workers in Switzerland. Based on a survey of 1,203 workers who were dismissed after their manufacturing plants closed down, we analyse the determinants of re-employment, the sector of re-employment and the change in wages. Two years after displacement, a majority of workers were back in employment: 69% were re-employed, 17% un-employed and 11% retired. Amongst re-employed workers, two thirds found a job in manufacturing and one third in services. Contrary to a common belief, low-end services are not the collecting vessel of redundant industrial workers. Displaced workers aged 55 and older seem particularly vulnerable after a plant closes down: over 30% were long-term unemployed, and those older workers who found a new job suffered disproportionate wage losses. Advanced age-and not low education-appears as the primary handicap after mass redundancy.

Performance Characteristics of an Axial-Flux Solid-Rotor-Core Induction Motor

The integration of electric motors and industrial appliances such as pumps, fans, and compressors is rapidly increasing. For instance, the integration of an electric motor and a centrifugal pump provides cost savings and improved performance characteristics. Material cost savings are achieved when an electric motor is integrated into the shaft of a centrifugal pump, and the motor utilizes the bearings of the pump. This arrangement leads to a smaller configuration that occupies less floor space. The performance characteristics of a pump drive can be improved by using the variable-speed technology. This enables the full speed control of the drive and the absence of a mechanical gearbox and couplers. When using rotational speeds higher than those that can be directly achieved by the network frequency the structure of the rotor has to be mechanically durable. In this thesis the performance characteristics of an axial-flux solid-rotor-core induction motor are determined. The motor studied is a one-rotor-one-stator axial-flux induction motor, and thus, there is only one air-gap between the rotor and the stator. The motor was designed for higher rotational speeds, and therefore a good mechanical strength of the solid-rotor-core rotor is required to withstand the mechanical stresses. The construction of the rotor and the high rotational speeds together produce a feature, which is not typical of traditional induction motors: the dominating loss component of the motor is the rotor eddy current loss. In the case of a typical industrial induction motor instead the dominating loss component is the stator copper loss. In this thesis, several methods to decrease the rotor eddy current losses in the case of axial-flux induction motors are presented. A prototype motor with 45 kW output power at 6000 min-1 was designed and constructed for ascertaining the results obtained from the numerical FEM calculations. In general, this thesis concentrates on the methods for improving the electromagnetic properties of an axial-flux solid-rotor-core induction motor and examines the methods for decreasing the harmonic eddy currents of the rotor. The target is to improve the efficiency of the motor and to reach the efficiency standard of the present-day industrial induction motors equipped with laminated rotors.

Impingement jet cooling of end windings in a high-speed electric machine

The rotational speed of high-speed electric machines is over 15 000 rpm. These machines are compact in size when compared to the power rate. As a consequence, the heat fluxes are at a high level and the adequacy of cooling becomes an important design criterion. In the high-speed machines, the air gap between the stator and rotor is a narrow flow channel. The cooling air is produced with a fan and the flow is then directed to the air gap. The flow in the gap does not provide sufficient cooling for the stator end windings, and therefore additional cooling is required. This study investigates the heat transfer and flow fields around the coil end windings when cooling jets are used. As a result, an innovative and new assembly is introduced for the cooling jets, with the benefits of a reduced amount of hot spots, a lower pressure drop, and hence a lower power need for the cooling fan. The gained information can also be applied to improve the cooling of electric machines through geometry modifications. The objective of the research is to determine the locations of the hot spots and to find out induced pressure losses with different jet alternatives. Several possibilities to arrange the extra cooling are considered. In the suggested approach cooling is provided by using a row of air jets. The air jets have three main tasks: to cool the coils effectively by direct impingement jets, to increase and cool down the flow that enters the coil end space through the air gap, and to ensure the correct distribution of the flow by forming an air curtain with additional jets. One important aim of this study is the arrangement of cooling jets in such manner that hot spots can be avoided to wide extent. This enables higher power density in high-speed motors. This cooling system can also be applied to the ordinary electric machines when efficient cooling is needed. The numerical calculations have been performed using a commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics software. Two geometries have been generated: cylindrical for the studied machine and Cartesian for the experimental model. The main parameters include the positions, arrangements and number of jets, the jet diameters, and the jet velocities. The investigated cases have been tested with two widely used turbulence models and using a computational grid of over 500 000 cells. The experimental tests have been made by using a simplified model for the end winding space with cooling jets. In the experiments, an emphasis has been given to flow visualisation. The computational analysis shows good agreement with the experimental results. Modelling of the cooling jet arrangement enables also a better understanding of the complex system of heat transfer at end winding space.

Mass and energy balance of the carbonization of babassu nutshell as affected by temperature

The objective of this work was to evaluate the carbonization yield of babassu nutshell as affected by final temperature, as well as the energy losses involved in the process. Three layers constituting the babassu nut, that is, the epicarp, mesocarp and endocarp, were used together. The material was carbonized, considering the following final temperatures: 450, 550, 650, 750, and 850ºC. The following were evaluated: energy and charcoal yields, pyroligneous liquid, non-condensable gases, and fixed carbon. The use of babassu nutshell can be highly feasible for charcoal production. The yield of charcoal from babassu nutshell carbonization was higher than that reported in the literature for Eucalyptus wood carbonization, considering the final temperature of 450ºC. Charcoal and energy yields decreased more sharply at lower temperatures, with a tendency to stabilize at higher temperatures. The energy yields obtained can be considered satisfactory, with losses between 45 and 52% (based on higher heating value) and between 43 and 49% (based on lower heating value) at temperatures ranging from 450 to 850ºC, respectively. Yields in fixed carbon and pyroligneous liquid are not affected by the final carbonization temperature.

Predicting soil erosion using Rusle and NDVI time series from TM Landsat 5

The objective of this work was to evaluate the seasonal variation of soil cover and rainfall erosivity, and their influences on the revised universal soil loss equation (Rusle), in order to estimate watershed soil losses in a temporal scale. Twenty-two TM Landsat 5 images from 1986 to 2009 were used to estimate soil use and management factor (C factor). A corresponding rainfall erosivity factor (R factor) was considered for each image, and the other factors were obtained using the standard Rusle method. Estimated soil losses were grouped into classes and ranged from 0.13 Mg ha-1 on May 24, 2009 (dry season) to 62.0 Mg ha-1 on March 11, 2007 (rainy season). In these dates, maximum losses in the watershed were 2.2 and 781.5 Mg ha-1 , respectively. Mean annual soil loss in the watershed was 109.5 Mg ha-1 , but the central area, with a loss of nearly 300.0 Mg ha-1 , was characterized as a site of high water-erosion risk. The use of C factor obtained from remote sensing data, associated to corresponding R factor, was fundamental to evaluate the soil erosion estimated by the Rusle in different seasons, unlike of other studies which keep these factors constant throughout time.

Polymorphisms in candidate genes and their association with carcass traits and meat quality in Nellore cattle

The objective of this work was to estimate the allele polymorphism frequencies of genes in Nellore cattle and associate them with meat quality and carcass traits. Six hundred males were genotyped for the following polymorphisms: DGAT1 (VNTR with 18 nucleotides at the promoter region); ANK1, a new polymorphism, identified and mapped here at the gene regulatory region NW_001494427.3; TCAP (AY428575.1:g.346G>A); and MYOG (NW_001501985:g.511G>C). In the association study, phenotype data of hot carcass weight, ribeye area, backfat thickness, percentage of intramuscular fat, shear force, myofibrillar fragmentation index, meat color (L*, a*, b*), and cooking losses were used. Allele B from the ANK1 gene was associated with greater redness (a*). Alleles 5R, 6R, and 7R from the DGAT1 VNTR gene were associated with increased intramuscular fat, reduced cooking losses and increased ribeye area, respectively. The single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of the TCAP gene was not polymorphic, and MYOG alleles were not associated with any of the evaluated characteristics. These results indicate that ANK1 and DGAT1 genes can be used in the selection of Nellore cattle for carcass and meat quality.

The genome of the recently domesticated crop plant sugar beet (Beta vulgaris)

Sugar beet (Beta vulgaris ssp. vulgaris) is an important crop of temperate climates which provides nearly 30% of the world's annual sugar production and is a source for bioethanol and animal feed. The species belongs to the order of Caryophylalles, is diploid with 2n = 18 chromosomes, has an estimated genome size of 714-758 megabases and shares an ancient genome triplication with other eudicot plants. Leafy beets have been cultivated since Roman times, but sugar beet is one of the most recently domesticated crops. It arose in the late eighteenth century when lines accumulating sugar in the storage root were selected from crosses made with chard and fodder beet. Here we present a reference genome sequence for sugar beet as the first non-rosid, non-asterid eudicot genome, advancing comparative genomics and phylogenetic reconstructions. The genome sequence comprises 567 megabases, of which 85% could be assigned to chromosomes. The assembly covers a large proportion of the repetitive sequence content that was estimated to be 63%. We predicted 27,421 protein-coding genes supported by transcript data and annotated them on the basis of sequence homology. Phylogenetic analyses provided evidence for the separation of Caryophyllales before the split of asterids and rosids, and revealed lineage-specific gene family expansions and losses. We sequenced spinach (Spinacia oleracea), another Caryophyllales species, and validated features that separate this clade from rosids and asterids. Intraspecific genomic variation was analysed based on the genome sequences of sea beet (Beta vulgaris ssp. maritima; progenitor of all beet crops) and four additional sugar beet accessions. We identified seven million variant positions in the reference genome, and also large regions of low variability, indicating artificial selection. The sugar beet genome sequence enables the identification of genes affecting agronomically relevant traits, supports molecular breeding and maximizes the plant's potential in energy biotechnology.

Distributed Energy Production in the North-West Region of Russia

The energy system of Russia is the world's fourth largest measured by installed power. The largest are that of the the United States of America, China and Japan. After 1990, the electricity consumption decreased as a result of the Russian industry crisis. The vivid economic growth during the latest few years explains the new increase in the demand for energy resources within the State. In 2005 the consumption of electricity achieved the maximum level of 1990 and continues to growth. In the 1980's, the renewal of power facilities was already very slow and practically stopped in the 1990's. At present, the energy system can be very much characterized as outdated, inefficient and uneconomic because of the old equipment, non-effective structure and large losses in the transmission lines. The aim of Russia's energy reform, which was started in 2001, is to achieve a market based energy policy by 2011. This would thus remove the significantly state-controlled monopoly in Russia's energy policy. The reform will stimulateto decrease losses, improve the energy system and employ energy-saving technologies. The Russian energy system today is still based on the use of fossil fuels, and it almost totally ignores the efficient use of renewable sources such as wind, solar, small hydro and biomass, despite of their significant resources in Russia. The main target of this project is to consider opportunities to apply renewable energy production in the North-West Federal Region of Russia to partly solve the above mentioned problems in the energy system.