971 resultados para Predictive Mean Squared Efficiency


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The vector competence of Culex quinquefasciatus from five localities in Brazil to Dirofilaria immitis was evaluated experimentally. Females from each locality were fed on an infected dog (~ 6 microfilariae/µl blood). A sample of blood fed mosquitoes were dissected approximately 1 h after blood meal. These results demonstrated that all had ingested microfilariae (mean, 4.8 to 24.6 microfilariae/mosquito). Fifteen days after the infected blood meal, the infection and infective rates were low in all populations of Cx. quinquefasciatus. The mean number of infective larvae detected in the head and proboscis of these mosquitoes was 1-1.5. The vector efficiency, the number of microfilariae ingested/number of infective larvae, was low for all populations of Cx. quinquefasciatus. However, the survival rate for all populations was high (range 50-75%). The survival rate of Aedes aegypti assayed simultaneously for comparison was low (24.7%), while the vector efficiency was much higher than for Cx. quinquefasciatus. These data suggest that the vector competence of all assayed populations of Cx. quinquefasciatus to D. immitis in Brazil is similar and that this species is a secondary vector due to its low susceptibility. Nevertheless, vector capacity may vary between populations due to differences in biting frequency on dogs that has been reported in Brazil.

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Moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with lower coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. However, data on the CAD risk associated with high alcohol consumption are conflicting. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of heavier drinking on 10-year CAD risk in a population with high mean alcohol consumption. In a population-based study of 5,769 adults (aged 35 to 75 years) without cardiovascular disease in Switzerland, 1-week alcohol consumption was categorized as 0, 1 to 6, 7 to 13, 14 to 20, 21 to 27, 28 to 34, and > or =35 drinks/week or as nondrinkers (0 drinks/week), moderate (1 to 13 drinks/week), high (14 to 34 drinks/week), and very high (> or =35 drinks/week). Blood pressure and lipids were measured, and 10-year CAD risk was calculated according to the Framingham risk score. Seventy-three percent (n = 4,214) of the participants consumed alcohol; 16% (n = 909) were high drinkers and 2% (n = 119) very high drinkers. In multivariate analysis, increasing alcohol consumption was associated with higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (from a mean +/- SE of 1.57 +/- 0.01 mmol/L in nondrinkers to 1.88 +/- 0.03 mmol/L in very high drinkers); triglycerides (1.17 +/- 1.01 to 1.32 +/- 1.05 mmol/L), and systolic and diastolic blood pressure (127.4 +/- 0.4 to 132.2 +/- 1.4 mm Hg and 78.7 +/- 0.3 to 81.7 +/- 0.9 mm Hg, respectively) (all p values for trend <0.001). Ten-year CAD risk increased from 4.31 +/- 0.10% to 4.90 +/- 0.37% (p = 0.03) with alcohol use, with a J-shaped relation. Increasing wine consumption was more related to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, whereas beer and spirits were related to increased triglyceride levels. In conclusion, as measured by 10-year CAD risk, the protective effect of alcohol consumption disappears in very high drinkers, because the beneficial increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol is offset by the increases in blood pressure levels.

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The life cycle of Clerada apicicornis was determined under laboratory conditions. Mean development times in days were: egg 27.2, nymph I 12.5, nymph II 12, nymph III 13.4, nymph IV 16.4, nymph V 26. The life expectancy of adults ranged from 117 to 317 days (mean 196 days). Based on a cohort of 29 females of C. apicicornis, a horizontal life table was constructed. The following predictive parameters were obtained: net rate of reproduction (Ro = 48.31), intrinsic rate of population increase (r m = 0.153), generation time (Tc = 28.20 weeks), and finite rate of population increment (lambda = 1.16). The reproductive value (Vx) for each age class of the cohort females was calculated. The following observed parameters were calculated after mortality in each stage: net rate of reproduction (R'o=13.4), intrinsic rate of population increase (r c' =0.09 ), and finite rate of population increment (lambda' =1.1). The generation time (Tc' =27.4) was estimated using the methods of Laughlin and Bengstron. A vertical life table was elaborated and mortality was described for one generation of the cohort.

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A Guide for Staff

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BACKGROUND: Hypovitaminosis D is well known in different populations, but may be under diagnosed in certain populations. We aim to determine the first diagnosis considered, the duration and resolution of symptoms, and the predictors of response to treatment in female asylum seekers suffering from hypovitaminosis D. METHODS: Design: A pre- and post-intervention observational study. Setting: A network comprising an academic primary care centre and nurse practitioners. Participants: Consecutive records of 33 female asylum seekers with complaints compatible with osteomalacia and with hypovitaminosis D (serum 25-(OH) vitamin D < 21 nmol/l). Treatment intervention: The patients received either two doses of 300,000 IU intramuscular cholecalciferol as well as 800 IU of cholecalciferol with 1000 mg of calcium orally, or the oral treatment only. Main outcome measures: We recorded the first diagnosis made by the physicians before the correct diagnosis of hypovitaminosis D, the duration of symptoms before diagnosis, the responders and non-responders to treatment, the duration of symptoms after treatment, and the number of medical visits and analgesic drugs prescribed 6 months before and 6 months after diagnosis. Tests: Two-sample t-tests, chi-squared tests, and logistic regression analyses were performed. Analyses were performed using SPSS 10.0. RESULTS: Prior to the discovery of hypovitaminosis D, diagnoses related to somatisation were evoked in 30 patients (90.9%). The mean duration of symptoms before diagnosis was 2.53 years (SD 3.20). Twenty-two patients (66.7%) responded completely to treatment; the remaining patients were considered to be non-responders. After treatment was initiated, the responders' symptoms disappeared completely after 2.84 months. The mean number of emergency medical visits fell from 0.88 (SD 1.08) six months before diagnosis to 0.39 (SD 0.83) after (P = 0.027). The mean number of analgesic drugs that were prescribed also decreased from 1.67 (SD 1.5) to 0.85 (SD 1) (P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Hypovitaminosis D in female asylum seekers may remain undiagnosed, with a prolonged duration of chronic symptoms. The potential pitfall is a diagnosis of somatisation. Treatment leads to a rapid resolution of symptoms, a reduction in the use of medical services, and the prescription of analgesic drugs in this vulnerable population.

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Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

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This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between wage inequality, employment structure, and returns to education in urban areas of Mexico during the past two decades (1987-2008). Applying Melly’s (2005) quantile regression based decomposition, we find that changes in wage inequality have been driven mainly by variations in educational wage premia. Additionally, we find that changes in employment structure, including occupation and firm size, have played a vital role. This evidence seems to suggest that the changes in wage inequality in urban Mexico cannot be interpreted in terms of a skill-biased change, but rather they are the result of an increasing demand for skills during that period.

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Bananal is an important focus of Schistosoma mansoni in the State of São Paulo. Accordingly, programmed active search for human cases, annual coproscopic surveys and treatment of infected cases were started in 1998, aiming at producing a sharp prevalence rate drop by the year 2000. S. mansoni eggs were searched for in two Kato-Katz slides per patient. Cases were followed up according to the routine of the local Family Health Program. In 1998, 130 samples out of 3,860 showed S. mansoni eggs; in 1999, 105 out of 3,550, and in 2000, 64 out of 3,528. Prevalence rates were 3.4%, 2.9%, and 1.8%, and average egg-counts 59, 64, and 79 eggs per gram of feces respectively. Prevalence rates decreased steadily after treatment, but persistently positive cases showed no significant decrease in parasite burdens. Egg count variation depended on sex and age bracket. Persistent residual cases admittedly preclude the eradication of this infection by only searching for and treating carriers. In addition, resistance to therapy and low sensitivity of fecal examinations, can not be ignored. Moderate to heavy worm burdens, frequently associated with hepatomegaly elsewhere, produced no serious cases in Bananal.