Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

Regular population monotonic allocation schemes and the core

A subclass of games with population monotonic allocation schemes is studied, namelygames with regular population monotonic allocation schemes (rpmas). We focus on theproperties of these games and we prove the coincidence between the core and both theDavis-Maschler bargaining set and the Mas-Colell bargaining set

Interiority of the optimal population growth rate with endogenous fertility

This paper analyzes the issue of the interiority of the optimal population growth rate in a two-period overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility. Using Cobb-Douglas utility and production functions, we show that the introduction of a cost of raising children allows for the possibility of the existence of an interior global maximum in the planner¿s problem, contrary to the exogenous fertility case

B cell response after MMTV infection: extrafollicular plasmablasts represent the main infected population and can transmit viral infection.

The immune response to mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV) relies on the presentation of an MMTV-encoded superantigen by infected B cells to superantigen-specific T cells. The initial extrafollicular B cell differentiation involved the generation of B cells expressing low levels of B220. These B220low B cells corresponded to plasmablasts that expressed high levels of CD43 and syndecan-1 and were CD62 ligand- and IgD-. Viral DNA was detected nearly exclusively in these B220low B cells by PCR, and retroviral type-A particles were observed in their cytoplasm by electron microscopy. An MMTV transmission to the offspring was also achieved after transfer of B220low CD62 ligand- CD43+ plasmablasts into noninfected females. These data suggest that B220low plasmablasts, representing the bulk of infected B cells, are capable of sustaining viral replication and may be involved in the transmission of MMTV.

Prospective monitoring of a CD4+ CD25high CD45RO+ CD127high T-cell population after first kidney transplantation following thymoglobulin or basiliximab induction

Background: Recent data have suggested that a population of CD4+ CD25high T cells, phenotypically characterized by the expression of CD45RO and CD127, is significantly expanded in stable liver and kidney transplant recipients and represents alloreactive T cells. Induction therapies may have an impact on this alloreactive T cell population. In this study, we prospectively analyzed CD4+ CD25high CD45RO+ CD127high T cells after induction with either thymoglobulin or basiliximab. Patients and methods: A total of twenty-seven kidney transplant recipients were prospectively enrolled; 14 received thymoglobulin induction followed by a 4-day course of steroids with tacrolimus and mycophenolate mofetil («thymo group»), and 13 received basiliximab induction followed by standard triple immunosuppression (tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil and prednisone) («BSX group»). Phenotypical analysis by flow cytometry of the expression of CD25, CD45RO and CD127 on peripheral CD4+ T cells was performed at 0, 3 and 6 months after transplantation. Twenty-four healthy subjects (HS) were studied as controls. Results: There were no differences in baseline characteristics between the groups; at 6 months, patient survival (100%), graft survival (100%), serum creatinine (thymo group versus BSX group: 129 versus 125 micromol/l) and acute rejection (2/14 versus 2/13) were not significantly different. Thymo induction produced a prolonged CD4 T cell depletion. As compared to pre-transplantation values, an expansion of the alloreactive T cell population was observed at 3 months in both thymo (mean: from 6.38% to 14.72%) and BSX (mean: from 8.01% to 18.42%) groups. At 6 months, the alloreactive T cell population remained significantly expanded in the thymo group (16.92 ± 2.87%) whereas it tended to decrease in the BSX group (10.22 ± 1.38%). Conclusion: Overall, our results indicate that the expansion of alloreactive T cells occurs rapidly after transplantation in patients receiving either thymo or BSX induction. Whether differences at later timepoints or whether different IS regimens may modify this alloreactive population remains to be studied.

Tunisian population data on 10 Y-chromosomal loci.

Alleles and haplotypes frequencies for 10 Y-chromosome STR loci (DYS19, DYS385 I/II, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, DYS438 and DYS439), included in the Y-Plex6 and Y-Plex5 kits were determined for a Tunisian population sample of 100 male individuals.

Nutrient relations during an eucalyptus cycle at different population densities

To synchronize nutrient availability with the requirements of eucalyptus during a cultivation cycle, the nutrient flow of this system must be well understood. Essential, for example, is information about nutrient dynamics in eucalyptus plantations throughout a cultivation cycle, as well as impacts on soil nutrient reserves caused by the accumulation and subsequent export of nutrients via biomass. It is also important to quantify the effect of some management practices, such as tree population density (PD) on these fluxes. Some nutrient relations in an experiment with Eucalyptus grandis, grown at different PDs in Santa Barbara, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, were evaluated for one cultivation cycle. At forest ages of 0.25, 2.5, 4.5, and 6.75 years, evaluations were carried out in the stands at seven different PDs (between 500 and 5,000 trees ha-1) which consisted in chemical analyses of plant tissue sampled from components of the aboveground parts of the tree, from the forest floor and the litterfall. Nutrient contents and allocations of the different biomass components were estimated. In general, there were only small and statistically insignificant effects of PD on the nutrient concentration in trees. With increasing forest age, P, K, Ca and Mg concentrations were reduced in the aboveground components and the forest floor. The magnitud of biochemical nutrient cycling followed the sequence: P > K > N > Mg. At the end of the cycle, the quantities of N, P, Ca and Mg immobilized in the forest floor were higher than in the other components.

From the Apennines to the Alps: colonization genetics of the naturally expanding Italian wolf (Canis lupus) population

Wolves in Italy strongly declined in the past and were confined south of the Alps since the turn of the last century, reduced in the 1970s to approximately 100 individuals surviving in two fragmented subpopulations in the central-southern Apennines. The Italian wolves are presently expanding in the Apennines, and started to recolonize the western Alps in Italy, France and Switzerland about 16 years ago. In this study, we used a population genetic approach to elucidate some aspects of the wolf recolonization process. DNA extracted from 3068 tissue and scat samples collected in the Apennines (the source populations) and in the Alps (the colony), were genotyped at 12 microsatellite loci aiming to assess (i) the strength of the bottleneck and founder effects during the onset of colonization; (ii) the rates of gene flow between source and colony; and (iii) the minimum number of colonizers that are needed to explain the genetic variability observed in the colony. We identified a total of 435 distinct wolf genotypes, which showed that wolves in the Alps: (i) have significantly lower genetic diversity (heterozygosity, allelic richness, number of private alleles) than wolves in the Apennines; (ii) are genetically distinct using pairwise F(ST) values, population assignment test and Bayesian clustering; (iii) are not in genetic equilibrium (significant bottleneck test). Spatial autocorrelations are significant among samples separated up to c. 230 km, roughly correspondent to the apparent gap in permanent wolf presence between the Alps and north Apennines. The estimated number of first-generation migrants indicates that migration has been unidirectional and male-biased, from the Apennines to the Alps, and that wolves in southern Italy did not contribute to the Alpine population. These results suggest that: (i) the Alps were colonized by a few long-range migrating wolves originating in the north Apennine subpopulation; (ii) during the colonization process there has been a moderate bottleneck; and (iii) gene flow between sources and colonies was moderate (corresponding to 1.25-2.50 wolves per generation), despite high potential for dispersal. Bottleneck simulations showed that a total of c. 8-16 effective founders are needed to explain the genetic diversity observed in the Alps. Levels of genetic diversity in the expanding Alpine wolf population, and the permanence of genetic structuring, will depend on the future rates of gene flow among distinct wolf subpopulation fragments.

A donde vamos ahora? : (where are we going now) : a report on the problems of the Spanish surnamed and migrant population in Iowa,1970.

This is an overview of the United States Commission on Civil Rights and the duties of the Iowa State Advisory Committee. It contains a report concerning problems of the Spanish surnamed and migrant population in Iowa.

Environmental sex reversal, Trojan sex genes, and sex ratio adjustment: conditions and population consequences.

Abstract The great diversity of sex determination mechanisms in animals and plants ranges from genetic sex determination (GSD, e.g. mammals, birds, and most dioecious plants) to environmental sex determination (ESD, e.g. many reptiles) and includes a mixture of both, for example when an individual's genetically determined sex is environmentally reversed during ontogeny (ESR, environmental sex reversal, e.g. many fish and amphibia). ESD and ESR can lead to widely varying and unstable population sex ratios. Populations exposed to conditions such as endocrine-active substances or temperature shifts may decline over time due to skewed sex ratios, a scenario that may become increasingly relevant with greater anthropogenic interference on watercourses. Continuous exposure of populations to factors causing ESR could lead to the extinction of genetic sex factors and may render a population dependent on the environmental factors that induce the sex change. However, ESR also presents opportunities for population management, especially if the Y or W chromosome is not, or not severely, degenerated. This seems to be the case in many amphibians and fish. Population growth or decline in such species can potentially be controlled through the introduction of so-called Trojan sex genes carriers, individuals that possess sex chromosomes or genes opposite from what their phenotype predicts. Here, we review the conditions for ESR, its prevalence in natural populations, the resulting physiological and reproductive consequences, and how these may become instrumental for population management.

Expansion and tissue infiltration of an allospecific CD4+CD25+CD45RO+IL-7Ralphahigh cell population in solid organ transplant recipients.

It has been recently shown (Seddiki, N., B. Santner-Nanan, J. Martinson, J. Zaunders, S. Sasson, A. Landay, M. Solomon, W. Selby, S.I. Alexander, R. Nanan, et al. 2006. J. Exp. Med. 203:1693-1700.) that the expression of interleukin (IL) 7 receptor (R) alpha discriminates between two distinct CD4 T cell populations, both characterized by the expression of CD25, i.e. CD4 regulatory T (T reg) cells and activated CD4 T cells. T reg cells express low levels of IL-7Ralpha, whereas activated CD4 T cells are characterized by the expression of IL-7Ralpha(high). We have investigated the distribution of these two CD4 T cell populations in 36 subjects after liver and kidney transplantation and in 45 healthy subjects. According to a previous study (Demirkiran, A., A. Kok, J. Kwekkeboom, H.J. Metselaar, H.W. Tilanus, and L.J. van der Laan. 2005. Transplant. Proc. 37:1194-1196.), we observed that the T reg CD25(+)CD45RO(+)IL-7Ralpha(low) cell population was reduced in transplant recipients (P < 0.00001). Interestingly, the CD4(+)CD25(+)CD45RO(+)IL-7Ralpha(high) cell population was significantly increased in stable transplant recipients compared with healthy subjects (P < 0.00001), and the expansion of this cell population was even greater in patients with documented humoral chronic rejection compared with stable transplant recipients (P < 0.0001). The expanded CD4(+)CD25(+)CD45RO(+)IL-7Ralpha(high) cell population contained allospecific CD4 T cells and secreted effector cytokines such as tumor necrosis factor alpha and interferon gamma, thus potentially contributing to the mechanisms of chronic rejection. More importantly, CD4(+)IL-7Ralpha(+)and CD25(+)IL-7Ralpha(+) cells were part of the T cell population infiltrating the allograft of patients with a documented diagnosis of chronic humoral rejection. These results indicate that the CD4(+)CD25(+)IL-7Ralpha(+) cell population may represent a valuable, sensitive, and specific marker to monitor allospecific CD4 T cell responses both in blood and in tissues after organ transplantation.

Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Clinical and molecular characterization of Diastrophic Dysplasia in the Portuguese population.

SLC26A2-related dysplasias encompass a spectrum of diseases: from lethal achondrogenesis type 1B (ACG1B; MIM #600972) and atelosteogenesis type 2 (AO2; MIM #256050) to classical diastrophic dysplasia (cDTD; MIM #222600) and recessive multiple epiphyseal dysplasia (rMED; MIM #226900). This study aimed at characterizing clinically, radiologically and molecularly 14 patients affected by non-lethal SLC26A2-related dysplasias and at evaluating genotype-phenotype correlation. Phenotypically, eight patients were classified as cDTD, four patients as rMED and two patients had an intermediate phenotype (mild DTD - mDTD, previously 'DTD variant'). The Arg279Trp mutation was present in all patients, either in homozygosity (resulting in rMED) or in compound heterozygosity with the known severe alleles Arg178Ter or Asn425Asp (resulting in DTD) or with the mutation c.727-1G>C (causing mDTD). The 'Finnish mutation', c.-26+2T>C, and the p.Cys653Ser, both frequent mutations in non-Portuguese populations, were not identified in any of the patients of our cohort and are probably very rare in the Portuguese population. A targeted mutation analysis for p.Arg279Trp and p.Arg178Ter in the Portuguese population allows the identification of approximately 90% of the pathogenic alleles.