Comparing and validating hypothesis test procedures: Graphical and numerical tools

When the behaviour of a specific hypothesis test statistic is studied by aMonte Carlo experiment, the usual way to describe its quality is by givingthe empirical level of the test. As an alternative to this procedure, we usethe empirical distribution of the obtained \emph{p-}values and exploit itsinformation both graphically and numerically.

Taking "Galton's problem" Seriously : Towards a Theory of Policy Diffusion

This article builds on the recent policy diffusion literature and attempts to overcome one of its major problems, namely the lack of a coherent theoretical framework. The literature defines policy diffusion as a process where policy choices are interdependent, and identifies several diffusion mechanisms that specify the link between the policy choices of the various actors. As these mechanisms are grounded in different theories, theoretical accounts of diffusion currently have little internal coherence. In this article we put forward an expected-utility model of policy change that is able to subsume all the diffusion mechanisms. We argue that the expected utility of a policy depends on both its effectiveness and the payoffs it yields, and we show that the various diffusion mechanisms operate by altering these two parameters. Each mechanism affects one of the two parameters, and does so in distinct ways. To account for aggregate patterns of diffusion, we embed our model in a simple threshold model of diffusion. Given the high complexity of the process that results, strong analytical conclusions on aggregate patterns cannot be drawn without more extensive analysis which is beyond the scope of this article. However, preliminary considerations indicate that a wide range of diffusion processes may exist and that convergence is only one possible outcome.

Immigration policy with partisan parties

This paper analyzes the political economy of immigration when the salient electoralissue is the level of immigrants and the relevant immigration policy is the expenditurein immigration control. We consider that immigration affects voters? welfarethrough economic and non economic factors. We model political competition `a laWittman with the ideology of parties endogenously determined at equilibrium. Atequilibrium, parties propose different levels of immigration, located to the left and tothe right of the median voter?s ideal point, and combine skilled and unskilled workersamong their constituencies. Numerical simulations provide the levels of immigrationproposed by the two parties and the composition of parties? constituencies as we varythe efficacy of immigration control and the intensity of immigration aversion.

The policy relevance of wear emissions from road transport, now and in the future : an international workshop report and consensus statement

Road transport emissions are a major contributor to ambient particulate matter concentrations and have been associated with adverse health effects. Therefore, these emissions are targeted through increasingly stringent European emission standards. These policies succeed in reducing exhaust emissions, but do not address "nonexhaust" emissions from brake wear, tire wear, road wear, and suspension in air of road dust. Is this a problem? To what extent do nonexhaust emissions contribute to ambient concentrations of PM10 or PM2.5? In the near future, wear emissions may dominate the remaining traffic-related PM10 emissions in Europe, mostly due to the steep decrease in PM exhaust emissions. This underlines the need to determine the relevance of the wear emissions as a contribution to the existing ambient PM concentrations, and the need to assess the health risks related to wear particles, which has not yet received much attention. During a workshop in 2011, available knowledge was reported and evaluated so as to draw conclusions on the relevance of traffic-related wear emissions for air quality policy development. On the basis of available evidence, which is briefly presented in this paper, it was concluded that nonexhaust emissions and in particular suspension in air of road dust are major contributors to exceedances at street locations of the PM10 air quality standards in various European cities. Furthermore, wear-related PM emissions that contain high concentrations of metals may (despite their limited contribution to the mass of nonexhaust emissions) cause significant health risks for the population, especially those living near intensely trafficked locations. To quantify the existing health risks, targeted research is required on wear emissions, their dispersion in urban areas, population exposure, and its effects on health. Such information will be crucial for environmental policymakers as an input for discussions on the need to develop control strategies.

Is bank debt special for the transmission of monetary policy? Evidence from the stock market

We combine existing balance sheet and stock market data with two new datasets to studywhether, how much, and why bank lending to firms matters for the transmission of monetarypolicy. The first new dataset enables us to quantify the bank dependence of firms precisely,as the ratio of bank debt to total assets. We show that a two standard deviation increase inthe bank dependence of a firm makes its stock price about 25% more responsive to monetarypolicy shocks. We explore the channels through which this effect occurs, and find that thestock prices of bank-dependent firms that borrow from financially weaker banks display astronger sensitivity to monetary policy shocks. This finding is consistent with the banklending channel, a theory according to which the strength of bank balance sheets mattersfor monetary policy transmission. We construct a new database of hedging activities andshow that the stock prices of bank-dependent firms that hedge against interest rate riskdisplay a lower sensitivity to monetary policy shocks. This finding is consistent with aninterest rate pass-through channel that operates via the direct transmission of policy ratesto lending rates associated with the widespread use of floating-rates in bank loans and creditline agreements.

Sustainability of the Peruvian anchoveta supply chains from sea to shelf: towards a new strategy for optimal use of resources

The research performed a sustainability assessment of supply chains of the anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) in Peru. The corresponding fisheries lands 6.5 million t per year, of which <2% is rendered into products for direct human consumption (DHC) and 98% reduced into feed ingredients (fishmeal and fish oil, FMFO), for export. Several industries compete for the anchoveta resources, generating local and global impacts. The need for understanding these dynamics, towards sustainability-improving management and policy recommendations, determined the development of a sustainability assessment framework: 1) characterisation and modelling of the systems under study (with Life Cycle Assessment and other tools) including local aquaculture, 2) calculation of sustainability indicators (i.e. energy efficiency, nutritional value, socio-economic performances), and 3) sustainability comparison of supply chains; definition and comparison of alternative exploitation scenarios. Future exploitation scenarios were defined by combining an ecosystem and a material flow models: continuation of the status quo (Scenario 1), shift towards increased proportion of DHC production (Scenario 2), and radical reduction of the anchoveta harvest in order for other fish stocks to recover and be exploited for DHC (Scenario 3). Scenario 2 was identified as the most sustainable. Management and policy recommendations include improving of: controls for compliance with management measures, sanitary conditions for DHC, landing infrastructure for small- and medium-scale (SMS) fisheries; the development of a national refrigerated distribution chain; and the assignation of flexible tolerances for discards from different DHC processes.

Informing the judgments of fingerprint analysts using quality metric and statistical assessment tools

The aim of this research was to evaluate how fingerprint analysts would incorporate information from newly developed tools into their decision making processes. Specifically, we assessed effects using the following: (1) a quality tool to aid in the assessment of the clarity of the friction ridge details, (2) a statistical tool to provide likelihood ratios representing the strength of the corresponding features between compared fingerprints, and (3) consensus information from a group of trained fingerprint experts. The measured variables for the effect on examiner performance were the accuracy and reproducibility of the conclusions against the ground truth (including the impact on error rates) and the analyst accuracy and variation for feature selection and comparison.¦The results showed that participants using the consensus information from other fingerprint experts demonstrated more consistency and accuracy in minutiae selection. They also demonstrated higher accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity in the decisions reported. The quality tool also affected minutiae selection (which, in turn, had limited influence on the reported decisions); the statistical tool did not appear to influence the reported decisions.

Monetary policy and rational asset price bubbles

I examine the impact of alternative monetary policy rules on arational asset price bubble, through the lens of an overlapping generations model with nominal rigidities. A systematic increase in interestrates in response to a growing bubble is shown to enhance the fluctuations in the latter, through its positive effect on bubble growth. Theoptimal monetary policy seeks to strike a balance between stabilization of the bubble and stabilization of aggregate demand. The paper'smain findings call into question the theoretical foundations of the casefor "leaning against the wind" monetary policies.

Department of the Governor's Office of Drug Control Policy, FY 2007

These Facts sheets have been developed to provide a multitude of information about executive branch agencies/departments on a single sheet of paper. The Facts provides general information, contact information, workforce data, leave & benefits information, and affirmative action data. This is the most recent update of information for the fiscal year 2007.

Department of the Governor's Office of Drug Control Policy, FY 2008

These Facts sheets have been developed to provide a multitude of information about executive branch agencies/departments on a single sheet of paper. The Facts provides general information, contact information, workforce data, leave & benefits information, and affirmative action data. This is the most recent update of information for the fiscal year 2007.

Nuclear well logging in soils. Calibration of slim hole nuclear tools gamma-gamma and neutron-thermal neutron.

The calculation of elasticity parameters by sonic and ultra sonic wave propagation in saturated soils using Biot's theory needs the following variables : forpiation density and porosity (p, ø), compressional and shear wave velocities (Vp, Vs), fluid density, viscosity and compressibility (Pfi Ilfi Ki), matrix density and compressibility (p" K), The first four parameters can be determined in situ using logging probes. Because fluid and matrix characteristics are not modified during core extraction, they can be obtained through laboratory measurements. All parameters necessitate precise calibrations in various environments and for specific range of values encountered in soils. The slim diameter of boreholes in shallow geophysics and the high cost of petroleum equipment demand the use of specific probes, which usually only give qualitative results. The measurement 'of density is done with a gamma-gamma probe and the measurement of hydrogen index, in relation to porosity, by a neutron probe. The first step of this work has been carried out in synthetic formations in the laboratory using homogeneous media of known density and porosity. To establish borehole corrections different casings have been used. Finally a comparison between laboratory and in situ data in cored holes of known geometry and casing has been performed.