General Practitioner Antimicrobial Stewardship Programme Study (GAPS): protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background There is a strong link between antibiotic consumption and the rate of antibiotic resistance. In Australia, the vast majority of antibiotics are prescribed by general practitioners, and the most common indication is for acute respiratory infections. The aim of this study is to assess if implementing a package of integrated, multifaceted interventions reduces antibiotic prescribing for acute respiratory infections in general practice. Methods/design This is a cluster randomised trial comparing two parallel groups of general practitioners in 28 urban general practices in Queensland, Australia: 14 intervention and 14 control practices. The protocol was peer-reviewed by content experts who were nominated by the funding organization. This study evaluates an integrated, multifaceted evidence-based package of interventions implemented over a six month period. The included interventions, which have previously been demonstrated to be effective at reducing antibiotic prescribing for acute respiratory infections, are: delayed prescribing; patient decision aids; communication training; commitment to a practice prescribing policy for antibiotics; patient information leaflet; and near patient testing with C-reactive protein. In addition, two sub-studies are nested in the main study: (1) point prevalence estimation carriage of bacterial upper respiratory pathogens in practice staff and asymptomatic patients; (2) feasibility of direct measures of antibiotic resistance by nose/throat swabbing. The main outcome data are from Australia’s national health insurance scheme, Medicare, which will be accessed after the completion of the intervention phase. They include the number of antibiotic prescriptions and the number of patient visits per general practitioner for periods before and during the intervention. The incidence of antibiotic prescriptions will be modelled using the numbers of patients as the denominator and seasonal and other factors as explanatory variables. Results will compare the change in prescription rates before and during the intervention in the two groups of practices. Semi-structured interviews will be conducted with the general practitioners and practice staff (practice nurse and/or practice manager) from the intervention practices on conclusion of the intervention phase to assess the feasibility and uptake of the interventions. An economic evaluation will be conducted to estimate the costs of implementing the package, and its cost-effectiveness in terms of cost per unit reduction in prescribing. Discussion The results on the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, acceptability and feasibility of this package of interventions will inform the policy for any national implementation.

Eddy diffusivity: A single dispersion analysis of high resolution drifters in a tidal shallow estuary

In an estuary, mixing and dispersion resulting from turbulence and small scale fluctuation has strong spatio-temporal variability which cannot be resolved in conventional hydrodynamic models while some models employs parameterizations large water bodies. This paper presents small scale diffusivity estimates from high resolution drifters sampled at 10 Hz for periods of about 4 hours to resolve turbulence and shear diffusivity within a tidal shallow estuary (depth < 3 m). Taylor's diffusion theorem forms the basis of a first order estimate for the diffusivity scale. Diffusivity varied between 0.001 – 0.02 m2/s during the flood tide experiment. The diffusivity showed strong dependence (R2 > 0.9) on the horizontal mean velocity within the channel. Enhanced diffusivity caused by shear dispersion resulting from the interaction of large scale flow with the boundary geometries was observed. Turbulence within the shallow channel showed some similarities with the boundary layer flow which include consistency with slope of 5/3 predicted by Kolmogorov's similarity hypothesis within the inertial subrange. The diffusivities scale locally by 4/3 power law following Okubo's scaling and the length scale scales as 3/2 power law of the time scale. The diffusivity scaling herein suggests that the modelling of small scale mixing within tidal shallow estuaries can be approached from classical turbulence scaling upon identifying pertinent parameters.

Lightcurve inversion for asteroid spins and shapes

Knowledge of the physical properties of asteroids is crucial in many branches of solar-system research. Knowledge of the spin states and shapes is needed, e.g., for accurate orbit determination and to study the history and evolution of the asteroids. In my thesis, I present new methods for using photometric lightcurves of asteroids in the determination of their spin states and shapes. The convex inversion method makes use of a general polyhedron shape model and provides us at best with an unambiguous spin solution and a convex shape solution that reproduces the main features of the original shape. Deriving information about the non-convex shape features is, in principle, also possible, but usually requires a priori information about the object. Alternatively, a distribution of non-convex solutions, describing the scale of the non-convexities, is also possible to be obtained. Due to insufficient number of absolute observations and inaccurately defined asteroid phase curves, the $c/b$-ratio, i.e., the flatness of the shape model is often somewhat ill-defined. However, especially in the case of elongated objects, the flatness seems to be quite well constrained, even in the case when only relative lightcurves are available. The results prove that it is, contrary to the earlier misbelief, possible to derive shape information from the lightcurve data if a sufficiently wide range of observing geometries is covered by the observations. Along with the more accurate shape models, also the rotational states, i.e., spin vectors and rotation periods, are defined with improved accuracy. The shape solutions obtained so far reveal a population of irregular objects whose most descriptive shape characteristics, however, can be expressed with only a few parameters. Preliminary statistical analyses for the shapes suggests that there are correlations between shape and other physical properties, such as the size, rotation period and taxonomic type of the asteroids. More shape data of, especially, the smallest and largest asteroids, as well as the fast and slow rotators is called for in order to be able to study the statistics more thoroughly.

Impact of a new mandatory reporting law on reporting and identification of child sexual abuse: A seven year time trend analysis

Child sexual abuse is widespread and difficult to detect. To enhance case identification, many societies have enacted mandatory reporting laws requiring designated professionals, most often police, teachers, doctors and nurses, to report suspected cases to government child welfare agencies. Little research has explored the effects of introducing a reporting law on the number of reports made, and the outcomes of those reports. This study explored the impact of a new legislative mandatory reporting duty for child sexual abuse in the State of Western Australia over seven years. We analysed data about numbers and outcomes of reports by mandated reporters, for periods before the law (2006-08) and after the law (2009-12). Results indicate that the number of reports by mandated reporters of suspected child sexual abuse increased by a factor of 3.7, from an annual mean of 662 in the three year pre-law period to 2448 in the four year post-law period. The increase in the first two post-law years was contextually and statistically significant. Report numbers stabilised in 2010-12, at one report per 210 children. The number of investigated reports increased threefold, from an annual mean of 451 in the pre-law period to 1363 in the post-law period. Significant decline in the proportion of mandated reports that were investigated in the first two post-law years suggested the new level of reporting and investigative need exceeded what was anticipated. However, a subsequent significant increase restored the pre-law proportion, suggesting systemic adaptive capacity. The number of substantiated investigations doubled, from an annual mean of 160 in the pre-law period to 327 in the post-law period, indicating twice as many sexually abused children were being identified.

Long-term effects of physical activity level on changes in healthy body mass index over 12 years in young adult women

Objectives To examine the effects of overall level and timing of physical activity (PA) on changes from a healthy body mass index (BMI) category over 12 years in young adult women. Patients and Methods Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (younger cohort, born 1973-1978) completed surveys between 2000 (age 22-27 years) and 2012 (age 34-39 years). Physical activity was measured in 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2009 and was categorized as very low, low, active, or very active at each survey, and a cumulative PA score for this 9-year period was created. Logistic regression was used to examine relationships between PA accumulated across all surveys (cumulative PA model) and PA at each survey (critical periods PA model), with change in BMI category (from healthy to overweight or healthy to obese) from 2000 to 2012. Results In women with a healthy BMI in 2000, there were clear dose-response relationships between accumulated PA and transition to overweight (P=.03) and obesity (P<.01) between 2000 and 2012. The critical periods analysis indicated that very active levels of PA at the 2006 survey (when the women were 28-33 years old) and active or very active PA at the 2009 survey (age 31-36 years) were most protective against transitioning to overweight and obesity. Conclusion These findings confirm that maintenance of very high PA levels throughout young adulthood will significantly reduce the risk of becoming overweight or obese. There seems to be a critical period for maintaining high levels of activity at the life stage when many women face competing demands of caring for infants and young children.

Pelon ja toivon välissä : Pätkätyöläisen urakerronta

This study analyzes the forming of the occupational identity of the well-educated fixed-term employees. Fixed-term employment contracts amongst the well-educated labour force are exceptionally common in Finland as compared to other European countries. Two groups of modern fixed-term employees are distinguished. The first comprises well-educated women employed in the public sector whose fixed-term employment often consists of successive periods as temporary substitutes. The other group comprises well-educated, upper white-collar men aged over 40, whose fixed-term employment careers often consist of jobs of project nature or posts that are filled for a fixed period only. Method of the study For the empirical data I interviewed 35 persons (26 women and 9 men) in 33 interviews, one of which was conducted by e-mail and one was a group interview. All the interviews were electronically recorded and coded. All the interviewees have two things in common: fixed-term employment and formal high education. Thirteen (13) of them are researchers, four nurses, four midwives, four journalists, and ten project experts. I used the snowball method to get in touch the interviewees. The first interviewees were those who were recommended by the trade unions and by my personal acquaintances. These interviewees, in turn, recommended other potential interviewees. In addition, announcements on the internet pages of the trade unions were used to reach other interviewees. In analysing process I read the research material several times to find the turning points in the narrative the interviewees told. I also searched for the most meaningful stories told and the meaning the interviewees gave to these stories and to the whole narrative. In addition to that I paid attention to co-production of the narrative with the interviewees and analyzed the narrative as performance to be able to search for the preferred identities the interviewees perform. (Riesman 2001, 698-701). I do not pay much attention to the question of truth of a narrative in the sense of its correspondence with facts; rather I think a working life narrative has two tasks: On the one hand one has to tell the facts and on the other hand, he/she has to describe the meaning of these facts to herself/himself. To emphasize the double nature of the narrative about one’s working life I analyzed the empirical data both by categorizing it according to the cultural models of storytelling (heroic story, comedy, irony and tragedy) and by studying the themes most of the interviewees talked about. Ethics of the study I chose to use narrative within qualitative interviews on the grounds that in my opinion is more ethical and more empowering than the more traditional structured interview methods. During the research process I carefully followed the ethical rules of a qualitative research. The purpose of the interviews and the research was told to the interviewees by giving them a written description of the study. Oral permission to use the interview in this research was obtained from the interviewees. The names and places, which are mentioned in the study, are changed to conceal the actual identity of the interviewees. I shared the analysis with the interviewees by sending each of them the first analysis of their personal interview. This way I asked them to make sure that the identity was hidden well enough and hoped to give interviewees a chance to look at their narratives, to instigate new actions and sustain the present one (Smith 2001, 721). Also I hoped to enjoy a new possibility of joint authorship. Main results As a result of the study I introduce six models of telling a story. The four typical western cultural models that guide the telling are: heroic story, comedy, tragedy and satirical story (Hänninen 1999). In addition to these models I found two ways of telling a career filled with fixed-term employments that differ significantly from traditional career story telling. However, the story models in which the interviewees pour their experience locates the fixed term employers work career in an imagined life trajectory and reveals the meaning they give to it. I analyze the many sided heroic story that Liisa tells as an example of the strength of the fear of failing or losing the job the fixed term employee feels. By this structure it is also possible to show that success is felt to be entirely a matter of chance. Tragedy, the failure in one’s trial to get something, is a model I introduce with the help of Vilppu’s story. This narrative gets its meaning both from the sorrow of the failure in the past and the rise of something new the teller has found. Aino tells her story as a comedy. By introducing her narrative, I suggest that the purpose of the comedy, a stronger social consensus, gets deeper and darker shade by fixed-term employment: one who works as a fixed term employee has to take his/her place in his/her work community by him/herself without the support the community gives to those in permanent position. By studying the satiric model Rauno uses, I argue that using irony both turns the power structures to a carnival and builds free space to the teller of the story and to the listener. Irony also helps in building a consensus, mutual understanding, between the teller and the listener and it shows the distance the teller tells to exist between him and others. Irony, however, demands some kind of success in one’s occupational career but also at least a minor disappointment in the progress of it. Helmi tells her story merely as a detective story. By introducing Helmi’s narrative, I argue that this story model strengthens the trust in fairness of the society the teller and the listener share. The analysis also emphasizes the central position of identity work, which is caused by fixed-term employment. Most of the interviewees talked about getting along in working life. I introduced Sari’s narrative as an example of this. In both of these latter narratives one’s personal character and habits are lifted as permanent parts of the actual professional expertise, which in turn varies according to different situations. By introducing these models, I reveal that the fixed-term employees have different strategies to cope with their job situations and these strategies vary according to their personal motives and situations and the actual purpose of the interview. However, I argue that they feel the space between their hopes and fears narrow and unsecure. In the research report I also introduce pieces of the stories – themes – that the interviewees use to build these survival strategies. They use their personal curriculum vitae or portfolio, their position in work community and their work morals to build their professional identity. Professional identity is flexible and varies in time and place, but even then it offers a tool to fix one’s identity work into something. It offers a viewpoint to society and a tool to measure one’s position in surrounding social nets. As one result of the study I analyze the position the fixed-term employees share on the edge of their job communities. I summarize the hopes and fears the interviewees have concerning employers, trade unions, educational institutions and the whole society. In their opinion, the solidarity between people has been weakened by the short-sighted power of the economy. The impact the fixed-term employment has on one’s professional identity and social capital is a many-sided and versatile process. Fixed-term employment both strengthens and weakens the professional identity, social capital and the building of trust. Fixed-term employment also affects one’s day-to-day life by excluding her/him from the norm and by one’s difficulty in making long-term plans (Jokinen 2005). Regardless of the nature of the job contract, the workers themselves are experts in making the best of their sometimes less than satisfying work life and they also build their professional identity by using creatively their education, work experiences and interpersonal relations. However, a long career of short fixed-term employments may seriously change the perception of employee about his/her role. He/she may start concentrating only in coping in his/her unsatisfactory situation and leaves the active improvement of the lousy working conditions to other people. Keywords: narrative, fixed-tem employment, occupational identity, work, story model, social capital, career  

Investigating the interactions of road users and pedestrians in a dynamic rail level crossing environment

There are 23,500 level crossings in Australia. In these types of environments it is important to understand what human factor issues are present and how road users and pedestrians engage with crossings. A series of on-site observations were performed over a 2-day period at a 3-track active crossing. This was followed by 52 interviews with local business owners and members of the public. Data were captured using a manual-coding scheme for recording and categorising violations. Over 700 separate road user and pedestrian violations were recorded, with representations in multiple categories. Time stamping revealed that the crossing was active for 59% of the time in some morning periods. Further, trains could take up to 4-min to arrive following its first activation. Many pedestrians jaywalked under side rails and around active boom gates. In numerous cases pedestrians put themselves at risk in order to beat or catch the approaching train, ignored signs to stop walking when the lights were flashing. Analysis of interview data identified themes associated with congestion, safety, and violations. This work offers insight into context specific issues associated with active level crossing protection.

A silicon micromachined photonic band gap cell, characteristics and an application

A novel PBG cell based on micromachining of Silicon using wet anisotropic etching has been considered. Since this is based on etching of the Silicon substrate, it is amenable to fabrication with standard Silicon processes and integration with millimeter wave circuits. We characterize this kind of PBG cell by full wave simulations using a time domain code. For the purpose of characterization, the scenario of a 50 ohm microstrip line placed on a Silicon substrate which is anisotropically etched to create patterns with sloping walls is considered. This is shown to produce the well known PBG response of stop bands in certain frequency bands. We look at the variation in the transmission coefficient (S-21) response as the number of periods, length based average fill factor and depth of micromachining are varied. One application of a low pass filter has been proposed and simulated results are given.

In vitro protection of umbilical cord blood–derived primitive hematopoietic stem progenitor cell pool by mannose-specific lectins via antioxidant mechanisms

BACKGROUND: Earlier we reported that an oral administration of two mannose-specific dietary lectins, banana lectin (BL) and garlic lectin (GL), led to an enhancement of hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell (HSPC) pool in mice. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Cord blood–derived CD34+ HSPCs were incubated with BL, GL, Dolichos lectin (DL), or artocarpin lectin (AL) for various time periods in a serum- and growth factor–free medium and were subjected to various functional assays. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels were detected by using DCHFDA method. Cell fractionation was carried out using lectin-coupled paramagnetic beads. RESULTS: CD34+ cells incubated with the lectins for 10 days gave rise to a significantly higher number of colonies compared to the controls, indicating that all four lectins possessed the capacity to protect HSPCs in vitro. Comparative analyses showed that the protective ability of BL and GL was better than AL and DL and, therefore, further experiments were carried out with them. The output of long-term culture-initiating cell (LTC-IC) and extended LTC-IC assays indicated that both BL and GL protected primitive stem cells up to 30 days. The cells incubated with BL or GL showed a substantial reduction in the ROS levels, indicating that these lectins protect the HSPCs via antioxidant mechanisms. The mononuclear cell fraction isolated by lectin-coupled beads got enriched for primitive HSPCs, as reflected in the output of phenotypic and functional assays. CONCLUSION: The data show that both BL and GL protect the primitive HSPCs in vitro and may also serve as cost-effective HSPC enrichment tools.

Regulating Food Consumption : Studies of change and variation in Europe

The role of people as buyers and eaters of food has changed significantly. From being protected by a paternalistic welfare state, people appear to be accorded more freedom and responsibility as individuals, where attention is redirected from the state towards market relations. Many have asserted that these changes are accompanied by fragmentation, individualisation, and privatisation, leading to individual uncertainty and lack of confidence. But empirical observations do not always confirm this, distrust is not necessarily growing and while responsibilities may change, the state still plays an active role. This dissertation explores changing relationships between states and markets, on the one hand, and ordinary people in their capacities as consumers and citizens, on the other. Do we see the emergence of new forms of regulation of food consumption? If so, what is the scope and what are the characteristics? Theories of regulation addressing questions about individualisation and self-governance are combined with a conceptualisation of consumption as processes of institutionalisation, involving daily routines, the division of labour between production and consumption, and the institutional field in which consumption is embedded. The analyses focus on the involvement of the state, food producers and scientific, first of all nutritional, expertise in regulating consumption, and on popular responses. Two periods come out as important, first when the ideas of “designing the good life” emerged, giving the state a very particular role in regulating food consumption, and, second, when this “designing” is replaced by ideas of choice and individual responsibility. One might say that “consumer choice” has become a mode of regulation. I use mainly historical studies from Norway to analyse the shifting role of the state in regulating food consumption, complemented with population surveys from six European countries to study how modernisation processes are associated with trust. The studies find that changing regulation is not only a question of societal or state vs individual responsibilities. Degrees of organisation and formalisation are important as well. While increasing organisation may represent discipline and abuses of power (including exploitation of consumer loyalty), organisation can also, to the consumer, provide higher predictability, systems to deal with malfeasance, and efficiency which may provide conditions for acting. The welfare state and the neo-liberal state have very different types of solutions. The welfare state solution is based on (national) egalitarianism, paternalism and discipline (of the market as well as households). Such solutions are still prominent in Norway. Individualisation and self-regulation may represent a regulatory response not only to a declining legitimacy of this kind of interventionism, but also increasing organisational complexity. This is reflected in large-scale re-regulation of markets as well as in relationships with households and consumers. Individualisation of responsibility is to the consumer not a matter of the number of choices that are presented on the shelves, but how choice as a form of consumer based involvement is institutionalised. It is recognition of people as “end-consumers”, as social actors, with systems of empowerment politically as well as via the provisioning system. ‘Consumer choice’ as a regulatory strategy includes not only communicative efforts to make people into “choosing consumers”, but also the provision of institutions which recognise consumer interests and agency. When this is lacking we find distrust as representing powerlessness. Individual responsibility-taking represents agency and is not always a matter of loyal support to shared goals, but involves protest and creativity. More informal (‘communitarian’) innovations may be an indication of that, where self-realisation is intimately combined with responsibility for social problems. But as solutions to counteract existing imbalances of power in the food market the impacts of such initiatives are probably more as part of consumer mobilisation and politicisation than as alternative provisioning.

Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.