Changing climate, changing decisions : understanding climate adaptation decision-making and the way science supports it

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Ambiente, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2015

Energy-aware Workflow Scheduling and Fuzzy Logic Based Capacity Provisioning in Cloud Environment

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2015

A method for analysing operational complexity in supply chains

This paper proposes a method for analysing the operational complexity in supply chains by using an entropic measure based on information theory. The proposed approach estimates the operational complexity at each stage of the supply chain and analyses the changes between stages. In this paper a stage is identified by the exchange of data and/or material. Through analysis the method identifies the stages where the operational complexity is both generated and propagated (exported, imported, generated or absorbed). Central to the method is the identification of a reference point within the supply chain. This is where the operational complexity is at a local minimum along the data transfer stages. Such a point can be thought of as a ‘sink’ for turbulence generated in the supply chain. Where it exists, it has the merit of stabilising the supply chain by attenuating uncertainty. However, the location of the reference point is also a matter of choice. If the preferred location is other than the current one, this is a trigger for management action. The analysis can help decide appropriate remedial action. More generally, the approach can assist logistics management by highlighting problem areas. An industrial application is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the method.

A review of dynamic Bayesian network techniques with applications in healthcare risk modelling

Coping with an ageing population is a major concern for healthcare organisations around the world. The average cost of hospital care is higher than social care for older and terminally ill patients. Moreover, the average cost of social care increases with the age of the patient. Therefore, it is important to make efficient and fair capacity planning which also incorporates patient centred outcomes. Predictive models can provide predictions which their accuracy can be understood and quantified. Predictive modelling can help patients and carers to get the appropriate support services, and allow clinical decision-makers to improve care quality and reduce the cost of inappropriate hospital and Accident and Emergency admissions. The aim of this study is to provide a review of modelling techniques and frameworks for predictive risk modelling of patients in hospital, based on routinely collected data such as the Hospital Episode Statistics database. A number of sub-problems can be considered such as Length-of-Stay and End-of-Life predictive modelling. The methodologies in the literature are mainly focused on addressing the problems using regression methods and Markov models, and the majority lack generalisability. In some cases, the robustness, accuracy and re-usability of predictive risk models have been shown to be improved using Machine Learning methods. Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques can represent complex correlations models and include small probabilities into the solution. The main focus of this study is to provide a review of major time-varying Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques with applications in healthcare predictive risk modelling.

Demand response programs definition supported by clustering and classification techniques

The growing importance and influence of new resources connected to the power systems has caused many changes in their operation. Environmental policies and several well know advantages have been made renewable based energy resources largely disseminated. These resources, including Distributed Generation (DG), are being connected to lower voltage levels where Demand Response (DR) must be considered too. These changes increase the complexity of the system operation due to both new operational constraints and amounts of data to be processed. Virtual Power Players (VPP) are entities able to manage these resources. Addressing these issues, this paper proposes a methodology to support VPP actions when these act as a Curtailment Service Provider (CSP) that provides DR capacity to a DR program declared by the Independent System Operator (ISO) or by the VPP itself. The amount of DR capacity that the CSP can assure is determined using data mining techniques applied to a database which is obtained for a large set of operation scenarios. The paper includes a case study based on 27,000 scenarios considering a diversity of distributed resources in a 33 bus distribution network.

Electrochemical evaluation of total antioxidant capacity of beverages using a purine-biosensor

In this paper, it was evaluated the total antioxidant capacity (TAC) of beverages using an electrochemical biosensor. The biosensor consisted on the purine base (guanine or adenine) electro-immobilization on a glassy carbon electrode surface (GCE). Purine base damage was induced by the hydroxyl radical generated by Fenton-type reaction. Five antioxidants were applied to counteract the deleterious effects of the hydroxyl radical. The antioxidants used were ascorbic acid, gallic acid, caffeic acid, coumaric acid and resveratrol. These antioxidants have the ability to scavenger the hydroxyl radical and protect the guanine and adenine immobilized on the GCE surface. The interaction carried out between the purinebase immobilized and the free radical in the absence and presence of antioxidants was evaluated by means of changes in the guanine and adenine anodic peak obtained by square wave voltammetry (SWV). The results demonstrated that the purine-biosensors are suitable for rapid assessment of TAC in beverages.

DNA-based biosensor for the electrocatalytic determination of antioxidant capacity in beverages

Reactive oxygen species (ROS) are produced as a consequence of normal aerobic metabolism and are able to induce DNA oxidative damage. At the cellular level, the evaluation of the protective effect of antioxidants can be achieved by examining the integrity of the DNA nucleobases using electrochemical techniques. Herein, the use of an adenine-rich oligonucleotide (dA21) adsorbed on carbon paste electrodes for the assessment of the antioxidant capacity is proposed. The method was based on the partial damage of a DNA layer adsorbed on the electrode surface by OH• radicals generated by Fenton reaction and the subsequent electrochemical oxidation of the intact adenine bases to generate an oxidation product that was able to catalyze the oxidation of NADH. The presence of antioxidant compounds scavenged hydroxyl radicals leaving more adenines unoxidized, and thus, increasing the electrocatalytic current of NADHmeasured by differential pulse voltammetry (DPV). Using ascorbic acid (AA) as a model antioxidant species, the detection of as low as 50nMof AA in aqueous solution was possible. The protection efficiency was evaluated for several antioxidant compounds. The biosensor was applied to the determination of the total antioxidant capacity (TAC) in beverages.

Electrochemical DNA-sensor for evaluation of total antioxidant capacity of flavours and flavoured waters using superoxide radical damage

In this paper, a biosensor based on a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) was used for the evaluation of the total antioxidant capacity (TAC) of flavours and flavoured waters. This biosensor was constructed by immobilising purine bases, guanine and adenine, on a GCE. Square wave voltammetry (SWV) was selected for the development of this methodology. Damage caused by the reactive oxygen species (ROS), superoxide radical (O2·−), generated by the xanthine/xanthine oxidase (XOD) system on the DNA-biosensor was evaluated. DNA-biosensor encountered with oxidative lesion when it was in contact with the O2·−. There was less oxidative damage when reactive antioxidants were added. The antioxidants used in this work were ascorbic acid, gallic acid, caffeic acid, coumaric acid and resveratrol. These antioxidants are capable of scavenging the superoxide radical and therefore protect the purine bases immobilized on the GCE surface. The results demonstrated that the DNA-based biosensor is suitable for the rapid assess of TAC in beverages.

Electrocatalytic evaluation of DNA damage by superoxide radical for antioxidant capacity assessment

The integrity of DNA purine bases was herein used to evaluate the antioxidant capacity. Unlike other DNA-based antioxidant sensors reported so far, the damaging agent chosen was the O 2 radical enzymatically generated by the xanthine/xanthine oxidase system. An adenine-rich oligonucleotide was adsorbed on carbon paste electrodes and subjected to radical damage in the presence/absence of several antioxidant compounds. As a result, partial damage on DNA was observed. A minor product of the radical oxidation was identified by cyclic voltammetry as a diimine adenine derivative also formed during the electrochemical oxidation of adenine/guanine bases. The protective efficiency of several antioxidant compounds was evaluated after electrochemical oxidation of the remaining unoxidized adenine bases, by measuring the electrocatalytic current of NADH mediated by the adsorbed catalyst species generated. A comparison between O 2 and OH radicals as a source of DNA lesions and the scavenging efficiency of various antioxidant compounds against both of them is discussed. Finally, the antioxidant capacity of beverages was evaluated and compared with the results obtained with an optical method.

Control and comparison of the antioxidant capacity of beers

The purpose of the present work is to determine the antioxidant capacity (AC) of 27 commercial beers. The AC indicates the degree of protection of a certain organism against oxidative damage provoked by reactive oxygen and nitrogen species. Assays were carried out by the following methods: (i) total radical trapping antioxidant parameter (TRAP); (ii) trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity (TEAC); (iii) trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity (DPPH); (iv) ferric-ion reducing antioxidant parameter (FRAP); (v) cupric reducing antioxidant capacity (CUPRAC); (vi) oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC). Ascorbic acid (AA), gallic acid (GA) and trolox (TR) were used as standards. All beers showed antioxidant power, but a wide range of ACs was observed. The effect of several factors upon these differences was studied. Statistical differences were found between ACs of beers of different colours. ORAC method provided always higher experimental ACs, of significant statistical differences to other assays.

On a generalized Laguerre operational matrix of fractional integration

A new operationalmatrix of fractional integration of arbitrary order for generalized Laguerre polynomials is derived.The fractional integration is described in the Riemann-Liouville sense.This operational matrix is applied together with generalized Laguerre tau method for solving general linearmultitermfractional differential equations (FDEs).Themethod has the advantage of obtaining the solution in terms of the generalized Laguerre parameter. In addition, only a small dimension of generalized Laguerre operational matrix is needed to obtain a satisfactory result. Illustrative examples reveal that the proposedmethod is very effective and convenient for linear multiterm FDEs on a semi-infinite interval.

Capacity sharing and stealing in dynamic server-based real-time systems

This paper proposes a dynamic scheduler that supports the coexistence of guaranteed and non-guaranteed bandwidth servers to efficiently handle soft-tasks’ overloads by making additional capacity available from two sources: (i) residual capacity allocated but unused when jobs complete in less than their budgeted execution time; (ii) stealing capacity from inactive non-isolated servers used to schedule best-effort jobs. The effectiveness of the proposed approach in reducing the mean tardiness of periodic jobs is demonstrated through extensive simulations. The achieved results become even more significant when tasks’ computation times have a large variance.

Uniprocessor EDF scheduling with mode change

Consider the problem of scheduling sporadically-arriving tasks with implicit deadlines using Earliest-Deadline-First (EDF) on a single processor. The system may undergo changes in its operational modes and therefore the characteristics of the task set may change at run-time. We consider a well-established previously published mode-change protocol and we show that if every mode utilizes at most 50% of the processing capacity then all deadlines are met. We also show that there exists a task set that misses a deadline although the utilization exceeds 50% by just an arbitrarily small amount. Finally, we present, for a relevant special case, an exact schedulability test for EDF with mode change.