The impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

The main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A typical tourism demand function, with tourist arrivals as the dependent variable, is used in the analysis. To establish the baseline, the period under analysis is 1989-2007 and the independent variables are destination country GDP per capita and consumer price index, source country GDP, oil prices to proxy transportation costs between source and destination countries. At this preliminary stage the climate variables are used separately to augment the tourism demand function to establish a relationship, if any, among the variables. Various econometric models (single OLS models for each country, pooled regression, GMM estimation and random effects panel models) were considered in an attempt to find the best way to model the data. The best fit for the data (1989-2007) is the random effects panel data model augmented by both climate variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation. Projections of all variables in the model for the 2008-2100 period were done using forecasting techniques. Projections for the climate variables were undertaken by INSMET. The cost of climate change to the tourism sector was estimated under three scenarios: A2, B2 and BAU (the mid-point of the A2 and B2 scenarios). The estimated costs to tourism for the Caribbean subregion under the three scenarios are all very high and ranges from US$43.9 billion under the B2 scenario to US$46.3 billion under the BAU scenario.

The impact of climate change on the macroeconomy in the Caribbean

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A methodological approach proposed by Dell et al. (2008) is used in preference to the traditional Integrated Assessment Models. The evolution of climate variables and of the macroeconomy of each of the nine countries over the period 1970 to 2006 is analyzed and preliminary evidence of a relationship between the macroeconomy and climate change is examined. The preliminary investigation uses correlation, Granger causality and simple regression methods. The preliminary evidence suggests that there is some relationship but that the direction of causation between the macroeconomy and the climate variables is indeterminate. The main analysis involves the use of a panel data (random effects) model which fits the historical data (1971-2007) very well. Projections of economic growth from 2008 to 2099 are done on the basis of four climate scenarios: the International Panel on Climate Change A2, B2, a hybrid A2B2 (the mid-point of A2 and B2), and a ‘baseline’ or ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, which assumes that the growth rate in the period 2008-2099 is the same as the average growth rate over the period 1971-2007. The best average growth rate is under the B2 scenario, followed by the hybrid A2B2 and A2 scenarios, in that order. Although negative growth rates eventually dominate, they are largely positive for a long time. The projections all display long-run secular decline in growth rates notwithstanding short-run upward trends, including some very sharp ones, moving eventually from declining positive rates to negative ones. The costs associated with the various scenarios are all quite high, rising to as high as a present value (2007 base year) of US$14 billion in 2099 (constant 1990 prices) for the B2 scenario and US$21 billion for the BAU scenario. These costs were calculated on the basis of very conservative estimates of the cost of environmental degradation. Mitigation and adaptation costs are likely to be quite high though a small fraction of projected total investment costs.

Review of the economics of climate change (RECC) in the Caribbean project: Phase I climate change profiles in select Caribbean countries

These reports are the result of consultations which were conducted in 2008 in Aruba, Barbados, Netherlands Antilles, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. The objective was to obtain relevant information that would inform a Stern-type report where the economics of climate change would be examined for the Caribbean subregion. These reports will be complimented by future assessments of the costs of the “business as usual”, adaptation and mitigation responses to the potential impacts of climate change. It is anticipated that the information contained in each country report would provide a detailed account of the environmental profile and would, therefore, provide an easy point of reference for policymakers in adapting existing policy or in formulating new ones. ECLAC continues to be available to the CDCC countries to provide technical support in the area of sustainable development.

The impact of climate change on the water sector in the Caribbean

This study econometrically analyses the projected impact of climate change on the water sector of nine Caribbean countries to 2100: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Montserrat, Jamaica, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago. Overall, all countries, with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago, are expected to suffer aggregate losses as result of climate change in the early periods ca. 2020 under one or more scenarios. Over time, some countries experience declining negative impacts, as in the case of Guyana under the B2 scenario. Some countries, such as the Dominican Republic, is projected to suffer increasing losses under the B2 scenario and, for others, the impacts do not follow a defined trend. The A2 scenario offers the best outcome for all countries, except Jamaica (where BAU is most desirable), Montserrat (which performs most poorly under the A2 scenario), and the Netherlands Antilles, which does best under the B2 case. Overall, relative to 2006, the total demand for water in the Caribbean is expected to fall by 2030 by 11.3% to approximately 12,967 million cubic meters. This is due to the expected fall in agricultural water demand by approximately 36% in that period. However, by 2050, total water demand for the Caribbean will again exceed the 2006 level by approximately 4% to 14,896.33 106 m3. By 2100, water demand will increase almost fivefold to approximately 69,233.69 106 m3. Climate change is expected to affect all countries in the Caribbean. In some cases, there will be positive impacts that may continue to increase over time and, in other cases, the impact will be negative and worsen over time. Overall, the agricultural sector is expected to suffer the worst losses over any scenario, whilst growth in the industrial sectors is expected to be significant and contribute the most to increasing water demand over time.

Welcome to new Heads of the Gender Department

In this issue of Gender Dialogue, we wish to congratulate Ms. Ingrid Charles- Gumbs, St. Kitts and Nevis; Ms. Miriam Roache, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Ms. Lera Pascal, Saint Lucia, on the assumption of the positions of heads of the national machineries in those countries. One of the purposes of this newsletter is networking and we are therefore providing some information on these three new officers, in our ‘Profiles of the new Heads of the national machineries for women’. We have also invited some of the “older hands” to share some of their experiences as head of national machineries and to give some advice. We are grateful to have received contributions from Ms. Anita Zetina (Belize) and Ms. Sheila Roseau (Antigua and Barbuda). We note that Ms. Jeannie Ollivierre, a long serving coordinator of the Women’s Bureau in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, has now retired from the public service and we wish her all the very best. Ms. Bernadette Springer of Saint Lucia is now the Administrator of the Gros Islet Polyclinic and Ms. Rosalyn Hazelle has been promoted to Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Social Development in St. Kitts and Nevis.

Caribbean synthesis review and appraisal report in the context of the 15th anniversay of the adoptaton of the Beijing declaration and platform for action

The report is a summary based on information received by ECLAC from the eight English-speaking Caribbean countries of Barbados, Belize, the Cayman Islands, the Commonwealth of Dominica, Jamaica, Suriname, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Trinidad and Tobago in response to the questionnaire to governments on the Implementation of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action (1995) and the Outcome of the Twenty-Third Special Session of the General Assembly (2000). The report is therefore set in the context of the regional review and appraisals of the fifteenth anniversary of the adoption of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action in 2010. This Executive Summary highlights the achievements and the challenges for the Caribbean subregion in the progress towards implementation of the Beijing Platform of Action.

Caribbean regional report for the five-year review of the Mauritius strategy for the further implementation of the Barbados Programme of Action for the sustainable development of small island developing states (MSI +5)

The small island developing States (SIDS) of the Caribbean referred to in this report comprise Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, The Netherlands Antilles, Trinidad and Tobago and the United States Virgin Islands. As far back as 1994, these countries expressed commitment to implementation of the Barbados Programme of Action (BPoA) for SIDS and have reiterated their support in making progress in achieving the targets set out in the Mauritius Strategy for further implementation of the Barbados Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of SIDS (MSI).

Report of the five year Caribbean regional review meeting of the Mauritius strategy for the further implementation of the Barbados programme of action for the sustainable development of small island developing states (MSI +5)

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, in collaboration with the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and the Government of Grenada, convened the Five-Year Caribbean Regional Review Meeting of the Mauritius Strategy for the Further Implementation of the Barbados Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States (MSI+5) in St. George’s, Grenada, on 16 and 18 March 2010.1 The meeting was attended by representatives of the following member countries: Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cuba, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago.

Report of the seminar on Caribbean development thinking the path covered and the way forward

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, and secretariat of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee (CDCC) convened a Seminar on Caribbean Development Thinking: The Path Covered and the Way Forward, in Port of Spain on 21 October 2009. The meeting was attended by representatives of the following CDCC member countries: Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago. Representatives of the following organizations of the United Nations system also attended: the International Labour Organisation (ILO); Joint United Nations Project on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS); and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The following intergovernmental organizations were represented: the Caribbean Community (CARICOM); the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB); the Caribbean Regional Negotiating Mechanism/Caribbean Community (CRNM/CARICOM); Delegation of the European Commission in Trinidad and Tobago; the Organisation of American States (OAS); and the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS). The University of the West Indies (UWI) also participated. The list of participants appears as annex I to this report.

Evaluation report of the training workshop on the use of the module to analyse growth of international commerce (Magic Plus) and the competitive analysis of nations (TRADECAN 2009) software

The aim of the workshop was to provide a functional overview of the software package, to enable participants to use the software in order to inform more evidence-based trade strategies, and build capacity for researchers and trade negotiators to provide more rigorous, analytical policy research to inform future trade negotiations. Participants came from the ministries of trade of the following CDCC member countries: Dominica, Grenada, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad and Tobago. Representatives of the following regional institutions were represented: the Caribbean Community/Caribbean Regional Negotiating Mechanism (CARICOM/CRNM); the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS); the University of Guyana, University of Suriname and the University of the West Indies (UWI). It was hoped the workshop would be a stepping stone towards more advanced trade analysis training. The list of participants appears as Annex I.

An assessment of social vulnerability and resilience in poverty reduction strategy papers (PRSPS/I-PRSPS) of selected Caribbean SIDS

The study undertakes a review of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs), and Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (I-PRSPs) of four selected Caribbean SIDS from the Eastern Caribbean. The countries had participated in the Poverty Reduction Strategy initiative formulated by the World Bank. The country papers reviewed were the Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. The review assesses and provides a comparative analysis of the general awareness of the notions of vulnerability and the inclusion and use of strategies that address the reduction of vulnerability and the strengthening of resilience by the countries reviewed. It also explores how vulnerability reduction strategies were applied to differing groups, as elaborated through the PRSPs.

Saint Lucia: the Yachting Sector

This study is a measure of the impact of the yachting sector in Saint Lucia specific to the terms of reference as presented by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). This study is part of the project: Development of a Subregional Marinebased Tourism Strategy, co-funded by the Government of the Netherlands, which is aimed at the development of sustainable yachting in the Eastern Caribbean and focuses on the island arc from the British Virgin Islands in the north to Trinidad and Tobago in the south. This study was compiled based on information gathered through interviews, reviewing of existing data and current findings and observations in areas where data was not presented. This study reviews specifically the yachting sector, or pleasure boat industry, which can be defined as a complex set of activities that are required to sustain boating and cruising in Saint Lucia. These activities are emphasized by yachting tourists, who are visitors to the island, staying for more than 24 hours on their vessels. A comp

Implementation of the 2014-2015 programme of work: subprogramme 13: subregional activities in the Caribbean

This report highlights the activities carried out by ECLAC in the Caribbean subregion between 1 January 2014 and 31 March 2015. Subprogramme 13 of the ECLAC programme of work 2014-2015 (“Subregional activities in the Caribbean”) covers the Commission’s work in Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago, as well as Anguilla, Aruba, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Curaçao, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Montserrat, Puerto Rico, Sint Maarten, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the United States Virgin Islands. Subprogramme 12 (“Subregional activities in Central America, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Mexico”) includes activities conducted in the Caribbean member States of Cuba, the Dominican Republic and Haiti. In addition, countries of the Caribbean were included in activities organized under the 12 other substantive subprogrammes of the ECLAC programme of work 2014-2015, namely: (i) linkages with the global economy, integration and regional cooperation; (ii) production and innovation; (iii) macroeconomic policies and growth; (iv) financing for development; (v) social development and equality; (vi) mainstreaming the gender perspective in regional development; (vii) population and development; (viii) sustainable development and human settlements; (ix) natural resources and infrastructure; (x) planning of public administration; (xi) statistics; and (xii) support for regional and subregional integration and cooperation processes and organizations.

An assessment of the economic impact of Climate Change on the Macroeconomy in the Caribbean

Between 2008 and 2011, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) worked on a project to assess the economic impact of climate change in the Caribbean. The overall aim is to prepare the Caribbean region to better respond to climate change, while fostering a regional approach to reducing carbon emissions by 2050. This study updates the report on the impact of climate change on the macroeconomy at the regional level and will focus on 9 countries: Aruba, the Bahamas, Barbados, Curacao, the Dominican Republic, Montserrat, Jamaica, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago.

Análise do líquido cefalorraquidiano, tomografia computadorizada craniana e angiotomografia cerebral de Alouatta guariba - Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire, 1812 (Bugio ruivo)

Pós-graduação em Medicina Veterinária - FMVZ