Risk management and the potential of cattle insurance in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

This study explores the role of livestock insurance to complement existing risk management strategies adopted by smallholder farmers. Using survey data, first, it provides insights into farmers’ risk perception of livestock farming, in terms of likelihood and severity of risk, attitude to risk and their determinants. Second, it examines farmers’ risk management strategies and their determinants. Third, it investigates farmers’ potential engagement with a hypothetical cattle insurance decision and their intensity of participation. Factor analysis is used to analyse risk sources and risk management, multiple regressions are used to identify the determinants; a Heckman model was used to investigate cattle insurance participation and intensity of participation. The findings show different groups of farmers display different risk attitude in their decision-making related to livestock farming. Production risk (especially livestock diseases) was perceived as the most likely and severe source of risk. Disease control was perceived as the best strategy to manage risk overall. Disease control and feed management were important strategies to mitigate the production risks. Disease control and participation on safety net program were found to be important to counter households’ financial risks. With regard to the hypothetical cattle insurance scheme, 94.38% of households were interested to participate in cattle insurance. Of those households that accepted cattle insurance, 77.38% of the households were willing to pay the benchmark annual premium of 4% of the animal value while for the remaining households this was not affordable. The average number of cattle that farmers were willing to insure was 2.71 at this benchmark. Results revealed that income (log income) and education levels influenced positively and significantly farmers’ participation in cattle insurance and the number of cattle to insure. The findings prompt policy makers to consider livestock insurance as a complement to existing risk management strategies to reduce poverty in the long-run.

Urbanization effects on welfare and income diversification strategies of peri-urban farm households in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: An empirical analysis

Urban areas in many developing countries are expanding rapidly by incorporating nearby subsistence farming communities. This has a direct effect on the consumption and production behaviours of the farm households but empirical evidence is sparse. This thesis investigated the effects of rapid urbanization and the associated policies on welfare of subsistence farm households in peri-urban areas using a panel dataset from Tigray, Ethiopia. The study revealed a number of important issues emerging with the rapid urban expansion. Firstly, private asset holdings and consumption expenditure of farm households, that have been incorporated into urban administration, has decreased. Secondly, factors that influence the farm households’ welfare and vulnerability depend on the administration they belong to, urban or rural. Gender and literacy of the household head have significant roles for the urban farm households to fall back into and/or move out of poverty. However, livestock holding and share of farm income are the most important factors for rural households. Thirdly, the study discloses that farming continues to be important source of income and income diversification is the principal strategy. Participation in nonfarm employment is less for farm households in urban than rural areas. Adult labour, size of the local market and past experience in the nonfarm sector improves the likelihood of engaging in skilled nonfarm employment opportunities. But money, given as compensation for the land taken away, is not crucial for the household to engage in better paying nonfarm employments. Production behaviour of the better-off farm households is the same, regardless of the administration they belong to. However, the urban poor participate less in nonfarm employment compared to the rural poor. These findings signify the gradual development of urban-induced poverty in peri-urban areas. In the case of labour poor households, introducing urban safety net programmes could improve asset productivity and provide further protection.

Northern Ireland, America and the emerging church movement: Exploring the significance of Peter Rollins and the Ikon collective

The Emerging Church Movement (ECM) is a primarily Western religious phenomenon, identifiable by its critical ‘deconstruction’ of ‘modern’ religion. While most prominent in North America, especially the United States, some of the most significant contributors to the ECM ‘conversation’ have been the Belfast-based Ikon Collective and one of its founders, philosopher Peter Rollins. Their rootedness in the unique religious, political and social landscape of Northern Ireland in part explains their position on the ‘margins’ of the ECM, and provides many of the resources for their contributions. Ikon’s development of ‘transformance art’ and its ‘leaderless’ structure raise questions about the institutional viability of the wider ECM. Rollins’ ‘Pyrotheology’ project, grounded in his reading of post-modern philosophy, introduces more radical ideas to the ECM conversation. Northern Ireland’s ‘Troubles’ and ‘marginal’ location provides the ground from which Rollins and Ikon have been able to expose the boundaries of the ECM and raise questions about just how far the ECM may go in its efforts to transform Western Christianity.

Gender differences in the risk of HIV infection among persons reporting abstinence, monogamy, and multiple sexual partners in northern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Monogamy, together with abstinence, partner reduction, and condom use, is widely advocated as a key behavioral strategy to prevent HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the association between the number of sexual partners and the risk of HIV seropositivity among men and women presenting for HIV voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) in northern Tanzania. METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Clients presenting for HIV VCT at a community-based AIDS service organization in Moshi, Tanzania were surveyed between November 2003 and December 2007. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, reasons for testing, sexual behaviors, and symptoms were collected. Men and women were categorized by number of lifetime sexual partners, and rates of seropositivity were reported by category. Factors associated with HIV seropositivity among monogamous males and females were identified by a multivariate logistic regression model. Of 6,549 clients, 3,607 (55%) were female, and the median age was 30 years (IQR 24-40). 939 (25%) females and 293 (10%) males (p<0.0001) were HIV seropositive. Among 1,244 (34%) monogamous females and 423 (14%) monogamous males, the risk of HIV infection was 19% and 4%, respectively (p<0.0001). The risk increased monotonically with additional partners up to 45% (p<0.001) and 15% (p<0.001) for women and men, respectively with 5 or more partners. In multivariate analysis, HIV seropositivity among monogamous women was most strongly associated with age (p<0.0001), lower education (p<0.004), and reporting a partner with other partners (p = 0.015). Only age was a significant risk factor for monogamous men (p = 0.0004). INTERPRETATION: Among women presenting for VCT, the number of partners is strongly associated with rates of seropositivity; however, even women reporting lifetime monogamy have a high risk for HIV infection. Partner reduction should be coupled with efforts to place tools in the hands of sexually active women to reduce their risk of contracting HIV.

Perceived acceptability of home-based couples voluntary HIV counseling and testing in Northern Tanzania.

It is estimated that 5.6% of the Tanzanian population ages 15-49 are infected with HIV, but only 30% of adults have ever had an HIV test. Couples' testing has proven to increase testing coverage and introduce HIV prevention, but barriers include access to testing services and unequal gender dynamics in relationships. Innovative approaches are needed to address barriers to couple's testing and increase uptake of HIV testing. Using qualitative data collection methods, a formative study was conducted to assess the acceptability of a home-based couples counseling and testing (HBCCT) approach. Eligible study participants included married men and women, HIV-infected individuals, health care and home-based care providers, voluntary counseling and testing counselors, and community leaders. A total of 91 individuals participated in focus group discussions (FGDs) and in-depth interviews conducted between September 2009 and January 2010 in rural settings in Northern Tanzania. An HBCCT intervention appears to be broadly acceptable among participants. Benefits of HBCCT were identified in terms of access, confidentiality, and strengthening the relationship. Fears of negative consequences from knowing one's HIV status, including stigma, blame, physical abuse, or divorce, remain a concern and a potential barrier to the successful provision of the intervention. Lessons for implementation highlighted the importance of appointments for home visits, building relationships of confidence and trust between counselors and clients, and assessing and responding to a couple's readiness to undergo HIV testing. HBCCT should addresses HIV stigma, emphasize confidentiality, and improve communication skills for disclosure and decision-making among couples.

Chikungunya and dengue fever among hospitalized febrile patients in northern Tanzania.

Consecutive febrile admissions were enrolled at two hospitals in Moshi, Tanzania. Confirmed acute Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), Dengue virus (DENV), and flavivirus infection were defined as a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) result. Presumptive acute DENV infection was defined as a positive anti-DENV immunoglobulin M (IgM) enzyme-linked immunsorbent assay (ELISA) result, and prior flavivirus exposure was defined as a positive anti-DENV IgG ELISA result. Among 870 participants, PCR testing was performed on 700 (80.5%). Of these, 55 (7.9%) had confirmed acute CHIKV infection, whereas no participants had confirmed acute DENV or flavivirus infection. Anti-DENV IgM serologic testing was performed for 747 (85.9%) participants, and of these 71 (9.5%) had presumptive acute DENV infection. Anti-DENV IgG serologic testing was performed for 751 (86.3%) participants, and of these 80 (10.7%) had prior flavivirus exposure. CHIKV infection was more common among infants and children than adults and adolescents (odds ratio [OR] 1.9, P = 0.026) and among HIV-infected patients with severe immunosuppression (OR 10.5, P = 0.007). CHIKV infection is an important but unrecognized cause of febrile illness in northern Tanzania. DENV or other closely related flaviviruses are likely also circulating.

Leptospirosis among hospitalized febrile patients in northern Tanzania.

We enrolled consecutive febrile admissions to two hospitals in Moshi, Tanzania. Confirmed leptospirosis was defined as a ≥ 4-fold increase in microscopic agglutination test (MAT) titer; probable leptospirosis as reciprocal MAT titer ≥ 800; and exposure to pathogenic leptospires as titer ≥ 100. Among 870 patients enrolled in the study, 453 (52.1%) had paired sera available, and 40 (8.8%) of these met the definition for confirmed leptospirosis. Of 832 patients with ≥ 1 serum sample available, 30 (3.6%) had probable leptospirosis and an additional 277 (33.3%) had evidence of exposure to pathogenic leptospires. Among those with leptospirosis the most common clinical diagnoses were malaria in 31 (44.3%) and pneumonia in 18 (25.7%). Leptospirosis was associated with living in a rural area (odds ratio [OR] 3.4, P < 0.001). Among those with confirmed leptospirosis, the predominant reactive serogroups were Mini and Australis. Leptospirosis is a major yet underdiagnosed cause of febrile illness in northern Tanzania, where it appears to be endemic.

Direct and Indirect Effects of Dissolved Organic Matter Source and Concentration on Denitrification in Northern Florida Rivers

Using a natural gradient of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) source and concentration in rivers of northern Florida, we investigated how terrestrially-derived DOC affects denitrification rates in river sediments. Specifically, we examined if the higher concentrations of DOC in blackwater rivers stimulate denitrification, or whether such terrestrially-derived DOC supports lower denitrification rates because (1) it is less labile than DOC from aquatic primary production; whether (2) terrestrial DOC directly inhibits denitrification via biochemical mechanisms; and/or whether (3) terrestrial DOC indirectly inhibits denitrification via reduced light availability to-and thus DOC exudation by-aquatic primary producers. We differentiated among these mechanisms using laboratory denitrification assays that subjected river sediments to factorial amendments of NO3- and dextrose, humic acid dosing, and cross-incubations of sediments and water from different river sources. DOC from terrestrial sources neither depressed nor stimulated denitrification rates, indicating low lability of this DOC but no direct inhibition; humic acid additions similarly did not affect denitrification rates. However, responses to addition of labile C increased with long-term average DOC concentration, which supports the hypothesis that terrestrial DOC indirectly inhibits denitrification via decreased autochthonous production. Observed and future changes in DOC concentration may therefore reduce the ability of inland waterways to remove reactive nitrogen. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Financing the development of poor communities in the Northern Cape of South Africa - an analytical framework for the study of livestock banks

This paper is part of a major project about the Northern Cape Land Reform and Advocacy (NCLRA) programme being implemented by FARM-Africa* in South Africa. The NCLRA programme had initiated a financial mechanism to help poor communities to get access to finance and training in order to enable them to make better use of their newly-acquired land. One prominent aspect of the programme is the implementation of Livestock Banks, or the use of animals as financial products. The paper provides an analytical framework with which to evaluate the effectiveness of Livestock Banks in the poor communities of the Northern Cape in South Africa. It focuses on the design, implementation and future of Livestock Banks. The paper argues that Livestock Banks need to be reformed and enhanced if they are to continue to play a key role in the goal of creating financial and economic value in Africa, particularly when the primary objective is simultaneously to help reduce poverty. [Note]*FARM-Africa (Food & Agricultural Research Management) is a registered UK charity organisation and a company limited by guarantee in England and Wales no. 01926828.

Prehistoric Pinus woodland dynamics in an upland landscape in northern Scotland: the roles of climate change and human impact

Pollen, microscopic charcoal, palaeohydrological and dendrochronological analyses are applied to a radiocarbon and tephrochronologically dated mid Holocene (ca. 8500–3000 cal B.P.) peat sequence with abundant fossil Pinus (pine) wood. The Pinus populations on peat fluctuated considerably over the period in question. Colonisation by Pinus from ca. 7900–7600 cal B.P. appears to have had no specific environmental trigger; it was probably determined by the rate of migration from particular populations. The second phase, at ca. 5000–4400 cal B.P., was facilitated by anthropogenic interference that reduced competition from other trees. The pollen record shows two Pinus declines. The first at ca. 6200–5500 cal B.P. was caused by a series of rapid and frequent climatic shifts. The second, the so-called pine decline, was very gradual (ca. 4200–3300 cal B.P.) at Loch Farlary and may not have been related to climate change as is often supposed. Low intensity but sustained grazing pressures were more important. Throughout the mid Holocene, the frequency and intensity of burning in these open Pinus–Calluna woods were probably highly sensitive to hydrological (climatic) change. Axe marks on several trees are related to the mid to late Bronze Age, i.e., long after the trees had died.

Peat, pine stumps and people: interactions behind climate, vegetation change and human activity in wetland archaeology at Loch Farlary, Northern Scotland

First paragraph: In 1993, a peat-cutter, Bruce Field, working on the blanket peat bank he rented from the Sutherland Estate by Loch Farlary, above Golspie in Sutherland (fig 1), reported to Scottish Natural Heritage and Historic Scotland several pieces of pine wood bearing axe marks. Their depth in the peat suggested the cut marks to be prehistoric. This paper summarizes the work undertaken to understand the age and archaeological significance of this find (see also Tipping et al 2001 in press). The pine trees were initially thought to be part of a population that flourished briefly across northern Scotland in the middle of the Holocene period from c 4800 cal BP (Huntley, Daniell & Allen 1997). The subsequent collapse across northernmost Scotland of this population, the pine decline, at around 4200-4000 cal BP is unexplained: climate change has been widely assumed (Dubois & Ferguson 1985; Bridge, Haggart & Lowe 1990; Gear & Huntley 1991) but anthropogenic activity has not been disproved (Birks 1975; Bennett 1995). It was hypothesized that the Farlary find would allow for the first time the direct link between human woodland clearance and the Early Bronze Age pine decline.

FARM-Africa South Africa Northern Cape land reform and advocacy programme 2004-2008: final evaluation

FARM-Africa South Africa has played a crucial and important role in filling the gap that existed after the return of land to communities by government in the Northern Cape. Their support to farmer communities during the post-settlement phase has been critical for making productive use of land. During 2004-2008, FARM-SA has worked in 20 community projects in the Northern Cape, benefiting 745 poor households.

Relating sardine recruitment in the Northern Benguela to satellite-derived sea surface height using a neural network pattern recognition approach

Processes of enrichment, concentration and retention are thought to be important for the successful recruitment of small pelagic fish in upwelling areas, but are difficult to measure. In this study, a novel approach is used to examine the role of spatio-temporal oceanographic variability on recruitment success of the Northern Benguela sardine Sardinops sagax. This approach applies a neural network pattern recognition technique, called a self-organising map (SOM), to a seven-year time series of satellite-derived sea level data. The Northern Benguela is characterised by quasi-perennial upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water and is influenced by intrusions of warm, nutrient-poor Angola Current water from the north. In this paper, these processes are categorised in terms of their influence on recruitment success through the key ocean triad mechanisms of enrichment, concentration and retention. Moderate upwelling is seen as favourable for recruitment, whereas strong upwelling, weak upwelling and Angola Current intrusion appear detrimental to recruitment success. The SOM was used to identify characteristic patterns from sea level difference data and these were interpreted with the aid of sea surface temperature data. We found that the major oceanographic processes of upwelling and Angola Current intrusion dominated these patterns, allowing them to be partitioned into those representing recruitment favourable conditions and those representing adverse conditions for recruitment. A marginally significant relationship was found between the index of sardine recruitment and the frequency of recruitment favourable conditions (r super(2) = 0.61, p = 0.068, n = 6). Because larvae are vulnerable to environmental influences for a period of at least 50 days after spawning, the SOM was then used to identify windows of persistent favourable conditions lasting longer than 50 days, termed recruitment favourable periods (RFPs). The occurrence of RFPs was compared with back-calculated spawning dates for each cohort. Finally, a comparison of RFPs with the time of spawning and the index of recruitment showed that in years where there were 50 or more days of favourable conditions following spawning, good recruitment followed (Mann-Whitney U-test: p = 0.064, n = 6). These results show the value of the SOM technique for describing spatio-temporal variability in oceanographic processes. Variability in these processes appears to be an important factor influencing recruitment in the Northern Benguela sardine, although the available data time series is currently too short to be conclusive. Nonetheless, the analysis of satellite data, using a neural network pattern-recognition approach, provides a useful framework for investigating fisheries recruitment problems.