Sucesso terapêutico no controlo da tuberculose em Portugal : determinantes do resultado do tratamento e a sua capacidade preditiva

RESUMO - Enquadramento/objectivos: Apesar do elevado nível de comprometimento em estratégias eficazes para o controlo da tuberculose, em todo o mundo, esta constitui ainda um sério problema de Saúde Pública, com uma estimativa global de 9,4milhões de casos novos em 2008 e 1,8milhões de mortes/ano. O reduzido conhecimento das barreiras e facilitadores para o sucesso terapêutico constitui um importante obstáculo na procura de soluções eficazes de melhoramento da qualidade dos programas de controlo da tuberculose. Este estudo procura contribuir para a identificação atempada de doentes com perfis preditivos de insucesso terapêutico, através da identificação inicial de potenciais determinantes do resultado, com base num modelo epidemiológico e estatístico. Métodos: Foi desenvolvido um estudo de caso-controlo para a população de casos notificados ao Programa Nacional de Controlo da Tuberculose (n=24491), entre 2000-2007. Os factores preditivos de insucesso terapêutico foram identificados na análise bivariada e multivariada, com um nível de significância de 5%; a regressão logística foi utilizada para estimar a odds ratio de insucesso terapêutico, em comparação com o sucesso terapêutico, para diversos factores identificados na literatura, e para os quais os dados se encontravam disponíveis. Resultados: A dependência alcoólica (OR=2,889), o país de origem (OR=3,910), a situação sem-abrigo (OR=3.919), a co-infecção pelo VIH (OR=5,173), a interrupção (OR=60.615) ou falha terapêutica no tratamento anterior (OR=67.345) e a duração do tratamento inferior a 165 dias (OR=1930,133) foram identificados como factores preditivos de insucesso terapêutico. A duração do tratamento inferior a 165 dias provou ser o mais importante determinante do resultado terapêutico. Conclusões: Os resultados sugerem que um doente imigrante, em situação de sem-abrigo, dependente alcoólico, com tratamentos anteriores para a tuberculose e co-infectado pelo VIH apresenta uma elevada probabilidade de insucesso terapêutico. Assim, deverão ser definidas estratégias específicas, centradas no doente por forma a impedir este resultado. A base de dados (SVIG-TB), provou ser uma ferramenta de qualidade para a investigação sobre diversos aspectos do controlo da tuberculose. ------------------------------- ABSTRACT - Background/Objective: Despite the high commitment in good strategies for tuberculosis control worldwide, this is still a serious Public Health problem, with global estimates of 9,4million new cases in 2008 and 1,8million deaths/year. The poor understanding of the barriers and facilitators to treatment success is a major obstacle to find effective solutions to improve the quality of tuberculosis programs. This study tries to contribute to the timely identification of patients with predictive profiles of unsuccessful treatment outcomes, through the initial identification of characteristics probably affecting treatment outcome, found on the basis of an epidemiological and statistical model. Methods: A case-control study was conducted for the population of cases notified to the National Program for Tuberculosis Control (n=24 491), between 2000-2007. Predictive factors for unsuccessful outcome were assessed in a bivariate and multivariate analysis, using a significance level of 5%; a logistic regression was used to estimate the odds-ratio of unsuccessful, as compared to successful outcome, for several factors identified in the literature and to which data was available. Results: Alcohol abuse (OR=2,889), patient´s foreign origin (OR=3,910), homelessness (OR=3,919), HIV co-infection (OR=5,173), interruption (OR=60,615) or unsuccessful outcome in the previous treatment (OR=67,345) and treatment duration below 165 days (OR=1930,133) were identified as predictive of unsuccessful outcomes. A low treatment duration proved to be the most powerful factor affecting treatment outcome. Conclusions: Results suggest that a foreign-born patient, alcohol abuser, who has had a previous treatment for tuberculosis and is co-infected with HIV is very likely to have an unsuccessful outcome. Therefore, specific, patient-centered strategies should be taken to prevent an unsuccessful outcome. The database (SVIG-TB), has proved to be a quality tool on research of various aspects of tuberculosis control.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in Brazil: report of a national survey (Florianópolis, SC, 1995)

In order to investigate epidemiological aspects of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Brazil, basic informations about cases diagnosed from January 1992 to December 1994 were requested to several medical centers of different Brazilian States. A simple questionnaire included age, sex, alcohol abuse (over 80g/day), associated liver cirrhosis, persistent HBV infection (HBsAg), HCV infection (anti-HCV) and serum levels of alpha fetoprotein. 287 cases, over 16 years old, from 19 medical centers of 8 States (Pará, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul) were analysed. The results showed: (a) Mean age was 56.3 ± 14.4 for men and 54.7 ± 16.8 yr for women and the male/female ratio was 3.4:1. (b) 69.6% were caucasians, 21.8% mullatoes, 4.8% orientals and 3.7% blacks. (c) HBsAg (+) in 77/236 cases (41.6%) without differences between males and females. (d) Anti-HCV (+) in 52/193 cases (26.9%). (e) 7/180 cases were positive both for HBsAg and anti-HCV (3.8%). (f) There was chronic alcoholism in 88/235 cases (37%). (g) HCC was found in cirrhotic livers in 71.2% of 202 cases in which the presence or absence of cirrhosis was reported. (h) Alpha-fetoprotein above 20 ng/ml was found in 124/172 cases (72%) and above 500 ng/ml only in 40 cases (23.2%). These results showed that the HCC in Brazil has an intermediate epidemiological pattern as compared to those from areas of low and high incidence of the tumor. In spite of the high frequency of the association of HCC with the HBV and/or HCV infections, 42% of 180 cases were negative both for HBsAg and anti-HCV, indicating the possible role of other etiological factors. The comparison of data from different States showed some regional differences: higher frequency of associated HBsAg in Pará, Bahia, Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, higher frequency of associated HCV infection in Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and States of the Southern region and low frequency of associated liver cirrhosis in Salvador and Rio de Janeiro (55.5 and 50% respectively). Further investigation will be necessary to study the presence of other possible etiological factors as aflatoxins, suggested by the favourable climatic conditions for food contamination by fungi in the majority Brazilian regions