Measurement of the pair production of b-jets in proton-proton collisions at root out s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

In hadronischen Kollisionen entstehen bei einem Großteil der Ereignisse mit einem hohen Impulsübertrag Paare aus hochenergetischen Jets. Deren Produktion und Eigenschaften können mit hoher Genauigkeit durch die Störungstheorie in der Quantenchromodynamik (QCD) vorhergesagt werden. Die Produktion von \textit{bottom}-Quarks in solchen Kollisionen kann als Maßstab genutzt werden, um die Vorhersagen der QCD zu testen, da diese Quarks die Dynamik des Produktionsprozesses bei Skalen wieder spiegelt, in der eine Störungsrechnung ohne Einschränkungen möglich ist. Auf Grund der hohen Masse von Teilchen, die ein \textit{bottom}-Quark enthalten, erhält der gemessene, hadronische Zustand den größten Teil der Information von dem Produktionsprozess der Quarks. Weil sie eine große Produktionsrate besitzen, spielen sie und ihre Zerfallsprodukte eine wichtige Rolle als Untergrund in vielen Analysen, insbesondere in Suchen nach neuer Physik. In ihrer herausragenden Stellung in der dritten Quark-Generation könnten sich vermehrt Zeichen im Vergleich zu den leichteren Quarks für neue Phänomene zeigen. Daher ist die Untersuchung des Verhältnisses zwischen der Produktion von Jets, die solche \textit{bottom}-Quarks enthalten, auch bekannt als $b$-Jets, und aller nachgewiesener Jets ein wichtiger Indikator für neue massive Objekte. In dieser Arbeit werden die Produktionsrate und die Korrelationen von Paaren aus $b$-Jets bestimmt und nach ersten Hinweisen eines neuen massiven Teilchens, das bisher nicht im Standard-Modell enthalten ist, in dem invarianten Massenspektrum der $b$-Jets gesucht. Am Large Hadron Collider (LHC) kollidieren zwei Protonenstrahlen bei einer Schwerpunktsenergie von $\sqrt s = 7$ TeV, und es werden viele solcher Paare aus $b$-Jets produziert. Diese Analyse benutzt die aufgezeichneten Kollisionen des ATLAS-Detektors. Die integrierte Luminosität der verwendbaren Daten beläuft sich auf 34~pb$^{-1}$. $b$-Jets werden mit Hilfe ihrer langen Lebensdauer und den rekonstruierten, geladenen Zerfallsprodukten identifiziert. Für diese Analyse müssen insbesondere die Unterschiede im Verhalten von Jets, die aus leichten Objekten wie Gluonen und leichten Quarks hervorgehen, zu diesen $b$-Jets beachtet werden. Die Energieskala dieser $b$-Jets wird untersucht und die zusätzlichen Unsicherheit in der Energiemessung der Jets bestimmt. Effekte bei der Jet-Rekonstruktion im Detektor, die einzigartig für $b$-Jets sind, werden studiert, um letztlich diese Messung unabhängig vom Detektor und auf Niveau der Hadronen auswerten zu können. Hiernach wird die Messung zu Vorhersagen auf nächst-zu-führender Ordnung verglichen. Dabei stellt sich heraus, dass die Vorhersagen in Übereinstimmung zu den aufgenommenen Daten sind. Daraus lässt sich schließen, dass der zugrunde liegende Produktionsmechanismus auch in diesem neu erschlossenen Energiebereich am LHC gültig ist. Jedoch werden auch erste Hinweise auf Mängel in der Beschreibung der Eigenschaften dieser Ereignisse gefunden. Weiterhin können keine Anhaltspunkte für eine neue Resonanz, die in Paare aus $b$-Jets zerfällt, in dem invarianten Massenspektrum bis etwa 1.7~TeV gefunden werden. Für das Auftreten einer solchen Resonanz mit einer Gauß-förmigen Massenverteilung werden modell-unabhängige Grenzen berechnet.

Essays in Macroecometrics: methodological aspects and empirical applications

In the first chapter, I develop a panel no-cointegration test which extends Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001)'s bounds test to the panel framework by considering the individual regressions in a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) system. This allows to take into account unobserved common factors that contemporaneously affect all the units of the panel and provides, at the same time, unit-specific test statistics. Moreover, the approach is particularly suited when the number of individuals of the panel is small relatively to the number of time series observations. I develop the algorithm to implement the test and I use Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the properties of the test. The small sample properties of the test are remarkable, compared to its single equation counterpart. I illustrate the use of the test through a test of Purchasing Power Parity in a panel of EU15 countries. In the second chapter of my PhD thesis, I verify the Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure in the repurchasing agreements (repo) market with a new testing approach. I consider an "inexact" formulation of the EHTS, which models a time-varying component in the risk premia and I treat the interest rates as a non-stationary cointegrated system. The effect of the heteroskedasticity is controlled by means of testing procedures (bootstrap and heteroskedasticity correction) which are robust to variance and covariance shifts over time. I fi#nd that the long-run implications of EHTS are verified. A rolling window analysis clarifies that the EHTS is only rejected in periods of turbulence of #financial markets. The third chapter introduces the Stata command "bootrank" which implements the bootstrap likelihood ratio rank test algorithm developed by Cavaliere et al. (2012). The command is illustrated through an empirical application on the term structure of interest rates in the US.

Calcoli di sezioni d'urto efficaci di riflettore in sistemi PWR di terza generazione

La corretta modellizzazione della zona del riflettore dei sistemi GEN III+ è un passaggio fondamentale per un’accurata predizione dei parametri di cella il cui valore influenza direttamente la distribuzione di potenza su tutto il nocciolo. Tale esigenza si è resa ancora più stringente dopo la constatazione che il fenomeno del “tilt power” risulta essere più amplificato nei noccioli nucleari equipaggiati con un riflettore pesante. Per tali ragioni, nel presente lavoro di tesi si è dedicata particolare attenzione alle metodiche di modellizzazione ed alla generazione delle sezioni d’urto efficaci omogenee ed agli assembly discontinuity factors (ADF) nella zona di riflessione. Il codice deterministico utilizzato per il calcolo è SCALE 6.1.3. La notevole differenza nelle proprietà neutroniche associata ad un’elevata eterogeneità geometrica tra un nocciolo ed un riflettore hanno suggerito di effettuare un’analisi preliminare sul sistema riflettente GEN II proposto nel benchmark NEA-NSC-DOC (2013) per testare la capacità di SCALE 6.1.3 di effettuare un corretto calcolo di cella adottando una modellizzazione monodimensionale assembly/riflettore. I risultati ottenuti sono confrontati con quelli presentati nel benchmark e e con quelli valutati attraverso il codice Monte Carlo SERPENT 2.0 confermando la capacità di calcolo di SCALE 6.1.3. L’analisi sulla modellizzazione dei sistemi riflettenti GEN III+ è stata effettuata ricavando il valore dei parametri di cella per configurazioni omogenee ed una serie di configurazioni geometriche esatte che comprendono tutte le modellizzazioni del sistema riflettente lungo la direzione angolare del riflettore. Si è inoltre effettuata un’analisi di sensitività su parametri operativi e sui parametri di codice. Si è infine effettuato un calcolo in color-set per indagare l’influenza degli effetti 2-D sui parametri di cella. I risultati prodotti rappresentano un contributo migliorativo nella conoscenza dei parametri di cella di riflettore e potranno essere utilizzati per una più precisa valutazione del fenomeno del tilt nei sistemi GEN III+.

Computer simulation methods to study interfacial tensions : from the Ising model to colloidal crystals

In condensed matter systems, the interfacial tension plays a central role for a multitude of phenomena. It is the driving force for nucleation processes, determines the shape and structure of crystalline structures and is important for industrial applications. Despite its importance, the interfacial tension is hard to determine in experiments and also in computer simulations. While for liquid-vapor interfacial tensions there exist sophisticated simulation methods to compute the interfacial tension, current methods for solid-liquid interfaces produce unsatisfactory results.rnrnAs a first approach to this topic, the influence of the interfacial tension on nuclei is studied within the three-dimensional Ising model. This model is well suited because despite its simplicity, one can learn much about nucleation of crystalline nuclei. Below the so-called roughening temperature, nuclei in the Ising model are not spherical anymore but become cubic because of the anisotropy of the interfacial tension. This is similar to crystalline nuclei, which are in general not spherical but more like a convex polyhedron with flat facets on the surface. In this context, the problem of distinguishing between the two bulk phases in the vicinity of the diffuse droplet surface is addressed. A new definition is found which correctly determines the volume of a droplet in a given configuration if compared to the volume predicted by simple macroscopic assumptions.rnrnTo compute the interfacial tension of solid-liquid interfaces, a new Monte Carlo method called ensemble switch method'' is presented which allows to compute the interfacial tension of liquid-vapor interfaces as well as solid-liquid interfaces with great accuracy. In the past, the dependence of the interfacial tension on the finite size and shape of the simulation box has often been neglected although there is a nontrivial dependence on the box dimensions. As a consequence, one needs to systematically increase the box size and extrapolate to infinite volume in order to accurately predict the interfacial tension. Therefore, a thorough finite-size scaling analysis is established in this thesis. Logarithmic corrections to the finite-size scaling are motivated and identified, which are of leading order and therefore must not be neglected. The astounding feature of these logarithmic corrections is that they do not depend at all on the model under consideration. Using the ensemble switch method, the validity of a finite-size scaling ansatz containing the aforementioned logarithmic corrections is carefully tested and confirmed. Combining the finite-size scaling theory with the ensemble switch method, the interfacial tension of several model systems, ranging from the Ising model to colloidal systems, is computed with great accuracy.

A probabilistic approach to classify the levee reliability

This work aims to evaluate the reliability of these levee systems, calculating the probability of “failure” of determined levee stretches under different loads, using probabilistic methods that take into account the fragility curves obtained through the Monte Carlo Method. For this study overtopping and piping are considered as failure mechanisms (since these are the most frequent) and the major levee system of the Po River with a primary focus on the section between Piacenza and Cremona, in the lower-middle area of the Padana Plain, is analysed. The novelty of this approach is to check the reliability of individual embankment stretches, not just a single section, while taking into account the variability of the levee system geometry from one stretch to another. This work takes also into consideration, for each levee stretch analysed, a probability distribution of the load variables involved in the definition of the fragility curves, where it is influenced by the differences in the topography and morphology of the riverbed along the sectional depth analysed as it pertains to the levee system in its entirety. A type of classification is proposed, for both failure mechanisms, to give an indication of the reliability of the levee system based of the information obtained by the fragility curve analysis. To accomplish this work, an hydraulic model has been developed where a 500-year flood is modelled to determinate the residual hazard value of failure for each stretch of levee near the corresponding water depth, then comparing the results with the obtained classifications. This work has the additional the aim of acting as an interface between the world of Applied Geology and Environmental Hydraulic Engineering where a strong collaboration is needed between the two professions to resolve and improve the estimation of hydraulic risk.

Alternative derivative expansion in Functional RG and application

We give a brief review of the Functional Renormalization method in quantum field theory, which is intrinsically non perturbative, in terms of both the Polchinski equation for the Wilsonian action and the Wetterich equation for the generator of the proper verteces. For the latter case we show a simple application for a theory with one real scalar field within the LPA and LPA' approximations. For the first case, instead, we give a covariant "Hamiltonian" version of the Polchinski equation which consists in doing a Legendre transform of the flow for the corresponding effective Lagrangian replacing arbitrary high order derivative of fields with momenta fields. This approach is suitable for studying new truncations in the derivative expansion. We apply this formulation for a theory with one real scalar field and, as a novel result, derive the flow equations for a theory with N real scalar fields with the O(N) internal symmetry. Within this new approach we analyze numerically the scaling solutions for N=1 in d=3 (critical Ising model), at the leading order in the derivative expansion with an infinite number of couplings, encoded in two functions V(phi) and Z(phi), obtaining an estimate for the quantum anomalous dimension with a 10% accuracy (confronting with Monte Carlo results).

Incident cancer burden attributable to excess body mass index in 30 European countries

Excess adiposity is associated with increased risks of developing adult malignancies. To inform public health policy and guide further research, the incident cancer burden attributable to excess body mass index (BMI >or= 25 kg/m(2)) across 30 European countries were estimated. Population attributable risks (PARs) were calculated using European- and gender-specific risk estimates from a published meta-analysis and gender-specific mean BMI estimates from a World Health Organization Global Infobase. Country-specific numbers of new cancers were derived from Globocan2002. A ten-year lag-period between risk exposure and cancer incidence was assumed and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated in Monte Carlo simulations. In 2002, there were 2,171,351 new all cancer diagnoses in the 30 countries of Europe. Estimated PARs were 2.5% (95% CI 1.5-3.6%) in men and 4.1% (2.3-5.9%) in women. These collectively corresponded to 70,288 (95% CI 40,069-100,668) new cases. Sensitivity analyses revealed estimates were most influenced by the assumed shape of the BMI distribution in the population and cancer-specific risk estimates. In a scenario analysis of a plausible contemporary (2008) population, the estimated PARs increased to 3.2% (2.1-4.3%) and 8.6% (5.6-11.5%), respectively, in men and women. Endometrial, post-menopausal breast and colorectal cancers accounted for 65% of these cancers. This analysis quantifies the burden of incident cancers attributable to excess BMI in Europe. The estimates reported here provide a baseline for future modelling, and underline the need for research into interventions to control weight in the context of endometrial, breast and colorectal cancer.

Different Learning Curves for Axillary Brachial Plexus Block: Ultrasound Guidance versus Nerve Stimulation

Little is known about the learning of the skills needed to perform ultrasound- or nerve stimulator-guided peripheral nerve blocks. The aim of this study was to compare the learning curves of residents trained in ultrasound guidance versus residents trained in nerve stimulation for axillary brachial plexus block. Ten residents with no previous experience with using ultrasound received ultrasound training and another ten residents with no previous experience with using nerve stimulation received nerve stimulation training. The novices' learning curves were generated by retrospective data analysis out of our electronic anaesthesia database. Individual success rates were pooled, and the institutional learning curve was calculated using a bootstrapping technique in combination with a Monte Carlo simulation procedure. The skills required to perform successful ultrasound-guided axillary brachial plexus block can be learnt faster and lead to a higher final success rate compared to nerve stimulator-guided axillary brachial plexus block.

Multiplicity of data in trial reports and the reliability of meta-analyses: empirical study

Objectives To examine the extent of multiplicity of data in trial reports and to assess the impact of multiplicity on meta-analysis results. Design Empirical study on a cohort of Cochrane systematic reviews. Data sources All Cochrane systematic reviews published from issue 3 in 2006 to issue 2 in 2007 that presented a result as a standardised mean difference (SMD). We retrieved trial reports contributing to the first SMD result in each review, and downloaded review protocols. We used these SMDs to identify a specific outcome for each meta-analysis from its protocol. Review methods Reviews were eligible if SMD results were based on two to ten randomised trials and if protocols described the outcome. We excluded reviews if they only presented results of subgroup analyses. Based on review protocols and index outcomes, two observers independently extracted the data necessary to calculate SMDs from the original trial reports for any intervention group, time point, or outcome measure compatible with the protocol. From the extracted data, we used Monte Carlo simulations to calculate all possible SMDs for every meta-analysis. Results We identified 19 eligible meta-analyses (including 83 trials). Published review protocols often lacked information about which data to choose. Twenty-four (29%) trials reported data for multiple intervention groups, 30 (36%) reported data for multiple time points, and 29 (35%) reported the index outcome measured on multiple scales. In 18 meta-analyses, we found multiplicity of data in at least one trial report; the median difference between the smallest and largest SMD results within a meta-analysis was 0.40 standard deviation units (range 0.04 to 0.91). Conclusions Multiplicity of data can affect the findings of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. To reduce the risk of bias, reviews and meta-analyses should comply with prespecified protocols that clearly identify time points, intervention groups, and scales of interest.

Simulating the impact of four control strategies on the population dynamics of Neospora caninum infection in Swiss dairy cattle

A dynamic deterministic simulation model was developed to assess the impact of different putative control strategies on the seroprevalence of Neospora caninum in female Swiss dairy cattle. The model structure comprised compartments of "susceptible" and "infected" animals (SI-model) and the cattle population was divided into 12 age classes. A reference model (Model 1) was developed to simulate the current (status quo) situation (present seroprevalence in Switzerland 12%), taking into account available demographic and seroprevalence data of Switzerland. Model 1 was modified to represent four putative control strategies: testing and culling of seropositive animals (Model 2), discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows (Model 3), chemotherapeutic treatment of calves from seropositive cows (Model 4), and vaccination of susceptible and infected animals (Model 5). Models 2-4 considered different sub-scenarios with regard to the frequency of diagnostic testing. Multivariable Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of uncertainty in input parameters. A policy of annual testing and culling of all seropositive cattle in the population reduced the seroprevalence effectively and rapidly from 12% to <1% in the first year of simulation. The control strategies with discontinued breeding with offspring from all seropositive cows, chemotherapy of calves and vaccination of all cattle reduced the prevalence more slowly than culling but were still very effective (reduction of prevalence below 2% within 11, 23 and 3 years of simulation, respectively). However, sensitivity analyses revealed that the effectiveness of these strategies depended strongly on the quality of the input parameters used, such as the horizontal and vertical transmission factors, the sensitivity of the diagnostic test and the efficacy of medication and vaccination. Finally, all models confirmed that it was not possible to completely eradicate N. caninum as long as the horizontal transmission process was not interrupted.

On the Accelerated Failure Time Model for Current Status and Interval Censored Data

This paper introduces a novel approach to making inference about the regression parameters in the accelerated failure time (AFT) model for current status and interval censored data. The estimator is constructed by inverting a Wald type test for testing a null proportional hazards model. A numerically efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based resampling method is proposed to simultaneously obtain the point estimator and a consistent estimator of its variance-covariance matrix. We illustrate our approach with interval censored data sets from two clinical studies. Extensive numerical studies are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the new estimators.

Semiparametric Latent Variable Regression Models for Spatio-temporal Modeling of Mobile Source Particles in the Greater Boston Area

Traffic particle concentrations show considerable spatial variability within a metropolitan area. We consider latent variable semiparametric regression models for modeling the spatial and temporal variability of black carbon and elemental carbon concentrations in the greater Boston area. Measurements of these pollutants, which are markers of traffic particles, were obtained from several individual exposure studies conducted at specific household locations as well as 15 ambient monitoring sites in the city. The models allow for both flexible, nonlinear effects of covariates and for unexplained spatial and temporal variability in exposure. In addition, the different individual exposure studies recorded different surrogates of traffic particles, with some recording only outdoor concentrations of black or elemental carbon, some recording indoor concentrations of black carbon, and others recording both indoor and outdoor concentrations of black carbon. A joint model for outdoor and indoor exposure that specifies a spatially varying latent variable provides greater spatial coverage in the area of interest. We propose a penalised spline formation of the model that relates to generalised kringing of the latent traffic pollution variable and leads to a natural Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for model fitting. We propose methods that allow us to control the degress of freedom of the smoother in a Bayesian framework. Finally, we present results from an analysis that applies the model to data from summer and winter separately

Kernel Estimation of Rate Function for Recurrent Event Data

Recurrent event data are largely characterized by the rate function but smoothing techniques for estimating the rate function have never been rigorously developed or studied in statistical literature. This paper considers the moment and least squares methods for estimating the rate function from recurrent event data. With an independent censoring assumption on the recurrent event process, we study statistical properties of the proposed estimators and propose bootstrap procedures for the bandwidth selection and for the approximation of confidence intervals in the estimation of the occurrence rate function. It is identified that the moment method without resmoothing via a smaller bandwidth will produce curve with nicks occurring at the censoring times, whereas there is no such problem with the least squares method. Furthermore, the asymptotic variance of the least squares estimator is shown to be smaller under regularity conditions. However, in the implementation of the bootstrap procedures, the moment method is computationally more efficient than the least squares method because the former approach uses condensed bootstrap data. The performance of the proposed procedures is studied through Monte Carlo simulations and an epidemiological example on intravenous drug users.