Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.

Policy Diffusion: An Agent-Based Approach

Methods like Event History Analysis can show the existence of diffusion and part of its nature, but do not study the process itself. Nowadays, thanks to the increasing performance of computers, processes can be studied using computational modeling. This thesis presents an agent-based model of policy diffusion mainly inspired from the model developed by Braun and Gilardi (2006). I first start by developing a theoretical framework of policy diffusion that presents the main internal drivers of policy diffusion - such as the preference for the policy, the effectiveness of the policy, the institutional constraints, and the ideology - and its main mechanisms, namely learning, competition, emulation, and coercion. Therefore diffusion, expressed by these interdependencies, is a complex process that needs to be studied with computational agent-based modeling. In a second step, computational agent-based modeling is defined along with its most significant concepts: complexity and emergence. Using computational agent-based modeling implies the development of an algorithm and its programming. When this latter has been developed, we let the different agents interact. Consequently, a phenomenon of diffusion, derived from learning, emerges, meaning that the choice made by an agent is conditional to that made by its neighbors. As a result, learning follows an inverted S-curve, which leads to partial convergence - global divergence and local convergence - that triggers the emergence of political clusters; i.e. the creation of regions with the same policy. Furthermore, the average effectiveness in this computational world tends to follow a J-shaped curve, meaning that not only time is needed for a policy to deploy its effects, but that it also takes time for a country to find the best-suited policy. To conclude, diffusion is an emergent phenomenon from complex interactions and its outcomes as ensued from my model are in line with the theoretical expectations and the empirical evidence.Les méthodes d'analyse de biographie (event history analysis) permettent de mettre en évidence l'existence de phénomènes de diffusion et de les décrire, mais ne permettent pas d'en étudier le processus. Les simulations informatiques, grâce aux performances croissantes des ordinateurs, rendent possible l'étude des processus en tant que tels. Cette thèse, basée sur le modèle théorique développé par Braun et Gilardi (2006), présente une simulation centrée sur les agents des phénomènes de diffusion des politiques. Le point de départ de ce travail met en lumière, au niveau théorique, les principaux facteurs de changement internes à un pays : la préférence pour une politique donnée, l'efficacité de cette dernière, les contraintes institutionnelles, l'idéologie, et les principaux mécanismes de diffusion que sont l'apprentissage, la compétition, l'émulation et la coercition. La diffusion, définie par l'interdépendance des différents acteurs, est un système complexe dont l'étude est rendue possible par les simulations centrées sur les agents. Au niveau méthodologique, nous présenterons également les principaux concepts sous-jacents aux simulations, notamment la complexité et l'émergence. De plus, l'utilisation de simulations informatiques implique le développement d'un algorithme et sa programmation. Cette dernière réalisée, les agents peuvent interagir, avec comme résultat l'émergence d'un phénomène de diffusion, dérivé de l'apprentissage, où le choix d'un agent dépend en grande partie de ceux faits par ses voisins. De plus, ce phénomène suit une courbe en S caractéristique, poussant à la création de régions politiquement identiques, mais divergentes au niveau globale. Enfin, l'efficacité moyenne, dans ce monde simulé, suit une courbe en J, ce qui signifie qu'il faut du temps, non seulement pour que la politique montre ses effets, mais également pour qu'un pays introduise la politique la plus efficace. En conclusion, la diffusion est un phénomène émergent résultant d'interactions complexes dont les résultats du processus tel que développé dans ce modèle correspondent tant aux attentes théoriques qu'aux résultats pratiques.

ARCHITECTING USER-CENTRIC PRIVACY-AS-A-SET-OF-SERVICES: DIGITAL IDENTITY RELATED PRIVACY FRAMEWORK

AbstractDigitalization gives to the Internet the power by allowing several virtual representations of reality, including that of identity. We leave an increasingly digital footprint in cyberspace and this situation puts our identity at high risks. Privacy is a right and fundamental social value that could play a key role as a medium to secure digital identities. Identity functionality is increasingly delivered as sets of services, rather than monolithic applications. So, an identity layer in which identity and privacy management services are loosely coupled, publicly hosted and available to on-demand calls could be more realistic and an acceptable situation. Identity and privacy should be interoperable and distributed through the adoption of service-orientation and implementation based on open standards (technical interoperability). Ihe objective of this project is to provide a way to implement interoperable user-centric digital identity-related privacy to respond to the need of distributed nature of federated identity systems. It is recognized that technical initiatives, emerging standards and protocols are not enough to guarantee resolution for the concerns surrounding a multi-facets and complex issue of identity and privacy. For this reason they should be apprehended within a global perspective through an integrated and a multidisciplinary approach. The approach dictates that privacy law, policies, regulations and technologies are to be crafted together from the start, rather than attaching it to digital identity after the fact. Thus, we draw Digital Identity-Related Privacy (DigldeRP) requirements from global, domestic and business-specific privacy policies. The requirements take shape of business interoperability. We suggest a layered implementation framework (DigldeRP framework) in accordance to model-driven architecture (MDA) approach that would help organizations' security team to turn business interoperability into technical interoperability in the form of a set of services that could accommodate Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA): Privacy-as-a-set-of- services (PaaSS) system. DigldeRP Framework will serve as a basis for vital understanding between business management and technical managers on digital identity related privacy initiatives. The layered DigldeRP framework presents five practical layers as an ordered sequence as a basis of DigldeRP project roadmap, however, in practice, there is an iterative process to assure that each layer supports effectively and enforces requirements of the adjacent ones. Each layer is composed by a set of blocks, which determine a roadmap that security team could follow to successfully implement PaaSS. Several blocks' descriptions are based on OMG SoaML modeling language and BPMN processes description. We identified, designed and implemented seven services that form PaaSS and described their consumption. PaaSS Java QEE project), WSDL, and XSD codes are given and explained.

COMMIT: Convex Optimization Modeling for Microstructure Informed Tractography.

Tractography is a class of algorithms aiming at in vivo mapping the major neuronal pathways in the white matter from diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. These techniques offer a powerful tool to noninvasively investigate at the macroscopic scale the architecture of the neuronal connections of the brain. However, unfortunately, the reconstructions recovered with existing tractography algorithms are not really quantitative even though diffusion MRI is a quantitative modality by nature. As a matter of fact, several techniques have been proposed in recent years to estimate, at the voxel level, intrinsic microstructural features of the tissue, such as axonal density and diameter, by using multicompartment models. In this paper, we present a novel framework to reestablish the link between tractography and tissue microstructure. Starting from an input set of candidate fiber-tracts, which are estimated from the data using standard fiber-tracking techniques, we model the diffusion MRI signal in each voxel of the image as a linear combination of the restricted and hindered contributions generated in every location of the brain by these candidate tracts. Then, we seek for the global weight of each of them, i.e., the effective contribution or volume, such that they globally fit the measured signal at best. We demonstrate that these weights can be easily recovered by solving a global convex optimization problem and using efficient algorithms. The effectiveness of our approach has been evaluated both on a realistic phantom with known ground-truth and in vivo brain data. Results clearly demonstrate the benefits of the proposed formulation, opening new perspectives for a more quantitative and biologically plausible assessment of the structural connectivity of the brain.

An introductory review on gravitational-deformation induced structures, fabrics and modeling

Recent studies have pointed out a similarity between tectonics and slope tectonic-induced structures. Numerous studies have demonstrated that structures and fabrics previously interpreted as of purely geodynamical origin are instead the result of large slope deformation, and this led in the past to erroneous interpretations. Nevertheless, their limit seems not clearly defined, but it is somehow transitional. Some studies point out continuity between failures developing at surface with upper crust movements. In this contribution, the main studies which examine the link between rock structures and slope movements are reviewed. The aspects regarding model and scale of observation are discussed together with the role of pre-existing weaknesses in the rock mass. As slope failures can develop through progressive failure, structures and their changes in time and space can be recognized. Furthermore, recognition of the origin of these structures can help in avoiding misinterpretations of regional geology. This also suggests the importance of integrating different slope movement classifications based on distribution and pattern of deformation and the application of structural geology techniques. A structural geology approach in the landslide community is a tool that can greatly support the hazard quantification and related risks, because most of the physical parameters, which are used for landslide modeling, are derived from geotechnical tests or the emerging geophysical approaches.

Arrested kinetic Li isotope fractionation at the margin of the llimaussaq complex, South Greenland: Evidence for open-system processes during final cooling of peralkaline igneous rocks

Li contents [Li] and isotopic composition (delta Li-7) of mafic minerals (mainly amphibole and clinopyroxene) from the alkaline to peralkaline Ilimaussaq plutonic complex, South Greenland, track the behavior of Li and its isotopes during magmatic differentiation and final cooling of an alkaline igneous system. [Li] in amphibole increase from < 10 ppm in Caamphiboles of the least differentiated unit to >3000 ppm in Na-amphiboles of the highly evolved units. In contrast, [Li] in clinopyroxene are comparatively low (<85 ppm) and do not vary systematically with differentiation. The distribution of Li between amphibole and pyroxene is controlled by the major element composition of the minerals (Ca-rich and Na-rich, respectively) and changes in oxygen fugacity (due to Li incorporation via coupled substitution with ferric iron) during magmatic differentiation. delta(7) Li values of all minerals span a wide range from + 17 to - 8 parts per thousand, with the different intrusive units of the complex having distinct Li isotopic systematics. Amphiboles, which dominate the Li budget of whole-rocks from the inner part of the complex, have constant delta Li-7 of + 1.8 +/- 2.2 parts per thousand (2 sigma, n = 15). This value reflects a homogeneous melt reservoir and is consistent with their mantle derivation, in agreement with published O and Nd isotopic data. Clinopyroxenes of these samples are consistently lighter, with Delta Li-7(amph-cpx). as large as 8 parts per thousand and are thus not in Li isotope equilibrium. These low values probably reflect late-stage diffusion of Li into clinopyroxene during final cooling of the rocks, thus enriching the clinopyroxene in 6 Li. At the margin of the complex delta(7) Li in the syenites increases systematically, from +2 to high values of + 14 parts per thousand. This, coupled with the observed Li isotope systematics of the granitic country rocks, reflects post-magmatic open-system processes occurring during final cooling of the intrusion. Although the shape and magnitude of the Li isotope and elemental profiles through syenite and country rock are suggestive of diffusion-driven isotope fractionation, they cannot be modeled by one-dimensional diffusive transport and point to circulation of a fluid having a high 67 Li value (possibly seawater) along the chilled contact. In all, this study demonstrates that Li isotopes can be used to identify complex fluid- and diffusion-governed processes taking place during the final cooling of such rocks. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Quantitative genetic modeling and inference in the presence of nonignorable missing data.

Natural selection is typically exerted at some specific life stages. If natural selection takes place before a trait can be measured, using conventional models can cause wrong inference about population parameters. When the missing data process relates to the trait of interest, a valid inference requires explicit modeling of the missing process. We propose a joint modeling approach, a shared parameter model, to account for nonrandom missing data. It consists of an animal model for the phenotypic data and a logistic model for the missing process, linked by the additive genetic effects. A Bayesian approach is taken and inference is made using integrated nested Laplace approximations. From a simulation study we find that wrongly assuming that missing data are missing at random can result in severely biased estimates of additive genetic variance. Using real data from a wild population of Swiss barn owls Tyto alba, our model indicates that the missing individuals would display large black spots; and we conclude that genes affecting this trait are already under selection before it is expressed. Our model is a tool to correctly estimate the magnitude of both natural selection and additive genetic variance.

Nitric oxide as a regulator of inflammatory processes

Nitric oxide (NO) plays an important role in mediating many aspects of inflammatory responses. NO is an effector molecule of cellular injury, and can act as an anti-oxidant. It can modulate the release of various inflammatory mediators from a wide range of cells participating in inflammatory responses (e.g., leukocytes, macrophages, mast cells, endothelial cells, and platelets). It can modulate blood flow, adhesion of leukocytes to the vascular endothelium and the activity of numerous enzymes, all of which can have an impact on inflammatory responses. In recent years, NO-releasing drugs have been developed, usually as derivatives of other drugs, which exhibit very powerful anti-inflammatory effects.

Steady-state expression of self-regulated genes.

MOTIVATION: Regulatory gene networks contain generic modules such as feedback loops that are essential for the regulation of many biological functions. The study of the stochastic mechanisms of gene regulation is instrumental for the understanding of how cells maintain their expression at levels commensurate with their biological role, as well as to engineer gene expression switches of appropriate behavior. The lack of precise knowledge on the steady-state distribution of gene expression requires the use of Gillespie algorithms and Monte-Carlo approximations. METHODOLOGY: In this study, we provide new exact formulas and efficient numerical algorithms for computing/modeling the steady-state of a class of self-regulated genes, and we use it to model/compute the stochastic expression of a gene of interest in an engineered network introduced in mammalian cells. The behavior of the genetic network is then analyzed experimentally in living cells. RESULTS: Stochastic models often reveal counter-intuitive experimental behaviors, and we find that this genetic architecture displays a unimodal behavior in mammalian cells, which was unexpected given its known bimodal response in unicellular organisms. We provide a molecular rationale for this behavior, and we implement it in the mathematical picture to explain the experimental results obtained from this network.

Schistosoma mansoni major egg antigen Smp40: molecular modeling and potential immunoreactivity for anti-pathology vaccine development

The pathogenesis of Schistosoma mansoni infection is largely determined by host T-cell mediated immune responses such as the granulomatous response to tissue deposited eggs and subsequent fibrosis. The major egg antigens have a valuable role in desensitizing the CD4+ Th cells that mediate granuloma formation, which may prevent or ameliorate clinical signs of schistosomiasis.S. mansoni major egg antigen Smp40 was expressed and completely purified. It was found that the expressed Smp40 reacts specifically with anti-Smp40 monoclonal antibody in Western blotting. Three-dimensional structure was elucidated based on the similarity of Smp40 with the small heat shock protein coded in the protein database as 1SHS as a template in the molecular modeling. It was figured out that the C-terminal of the Smp40 protein (residues 130 onward) contains two alpha crystallin domains. The fold consists of eight beta strands sandwiched in two sheets forming Greek key. The purified Smp40 was used for in vitro stimulation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells from patients infected with S. mansoni using phytohemagglutinin mitogen as a positive control. The obtained results showed that there is no statistical difference in interferon-g, interleukin (IL)-4 and IL-13 levels obtained with Smp40 stimulation compared with the control group (P > 0.05 for each). On the other hand, there were significant differences after Smp40 stimulation in IL-5 (P = 0.006) and IL-10 levels (P < 0.001) compared with the control group. Gaining the knowledge by reviewing the literature, it was found that the overall pattern of cytokine profile obtained with Smp40 stimulation is reported to be associated with reduced collagen deposition, decreased fibrosis, and granuloma formation inhibition. This may reflect its future prospect as a leading anti-pathology schistosomal vaccine candidate.