Stepwise multiple testing as formalized data snooping

It is common in econometric applications that several hypothesis tests arecarried out at the same time. The problem then becomes how to decide whichhypotheses to reject, accounting for the multitude of tests. In this paper,we suggest a stepwise multiple testing procedure which asymptoticallycontrols the familywise error rate at a desired level. Compared to relatedsingle-step methods, our procedure is more powerful in the sense that itoften will reject more false hypotheses. In addition, we advocate the useof studentization when it is feasible. Unlike some stepwise methods, ourmethod implicitly captures the joint dependence structure of the teststatistics, which results in increased ability to detect alternativehypotheses. We prove our method asymptotically controls the familywise errorrate under minimal assumptions. We present our methodology in the context ofcomparing several strategies to a common benchmark and deciding whichstrategies actually beat the benchmark. However, our ideas can easily beextended and/or modied to other contexts, such as making inference for theindividual regression coecients in a multiple regression framework. Somesimulation studies show the improvements of our methods over previous proposals. We also provide an application to a set of real data.

Are Voting Advice Applications (VVAs) more than Toys ? : First findings on Impact and Accountability of VAAs

To what extent do Voting Advice Applications (VAA) have an influence on voting behaviour and to what extent should providers be hold accountable for such tools? This paper puts forward some empirical evidence from the Swiss VAA smartvote. The enormous popularity of smartvote in the last national elections in 2007 and the feedback of users and candidates let us come to the conclusion that smartvote is more than a toy and likely to have an influence on the voting decisions. Since Swiss citizens not only vote for parties but also for candidates, and the voting recommendation of smartvote is based on the political positions of the candidates, smartvote turns out to be particularly helpful. Political scientists must not keep their hands off such tools. Scientific research is needed to understand their functioning and possibilities to manipulate elections. On the bases of a legal study we come to the conclusion, that a science driven way of setting up such tools is essential for their legitimacy. However, we do not believe that there is a single best way of setting up such a tool and rather support a market like solution with different competing tools, provided they meet minimal standards like transparency and equal access for all parties and candidates. Once the process of selecting candidates and parties are directly linked to the act of voting, all these questions will become even more salient.

Characterization of NALP2 and NALP3 IL-1β processing inflammasomes

Résumé II y a cinq ans, la découverte d'un nouveau domaine, le PYD domaine, lié aux domaines de la mort, a permis la description de la nouvelle famille des NALP protéines. L'analyse structurelle de cette famille de protéines révéla la présence de deux autres domaines, impliqués dans l'oligomerisation, NACHT, et la détection des ligands, Leucine rich repeats ou LRR. Cette architecture protéique est homologue à celle qui est décrite pour les NODs, les Tol1 récepteurs et tes protéines de résistance chez les plantes. Cette homologie suggère une possible implication des NALPs dans la régulation de l'immunité innée. Premièrement, nous avons décrit les composants minimaux qui permettent à l'inflammasomeNALP3 d'activer la caspase pro-inflammatoire, caspase-1. En comparaison à NALP1, NALP3 ne contient pas de FIIND domaine, ni de CARD domaine en C-terminus et n'interagit pas avec caspase-5. Nous avons découvert une protéine très homologue au C-terminus de NALP1, Cardinal, qui se lie au NACHT domaine de NALP2 et NALP3 par l'intermédiaire de son FIIND domaine. Cardinal possède la capacité d'interagir avec caspase-l, mais seul ASC semble être nécessaire à la maturation de la prointerleukine-1β suite à la stimulation de NALP3. Deuxièmement, notre étude s'est concentrée sur la nature du stimulus capable d'induire la formation et l'activation de l'inflammasome-NALP3. Nous avons démontré que l'ajout de muramyl dipeptide (MDP), produit à partir de la digestion enzymatique de peptidoglycaris bactériens, induit à la fois l'expression de la proIL-1β par la voie NOD2 et sa maturation en IL-1β active par la voie NALP3. Bien que le MDP active l'inflammasome-NALP3, il est incapable d'induire la sécrétion de l'IL-1β mature dans la lignée cellulaire THP1, comparé aux monocytes primaires humains. Cette différence pourrait être liée à l'absence, dans les THP1, de la protéine Filamin, qui est proposée d'interagir avec Cardinal. L'implication de NALP3 dans la maturation de l'IL-lb est confirmée suite à la découverte de mutations sur le gène CIAS1/NALP3/cryopyrin associées à trois maladies auto-inflammatoires : le syndrome de Muckle-Wells (MWS), l'urticaire familial au froid (FCU) et le syndrome CINCA/NOMID. Une élévation constitutive de la maturation et de la sécrétion de la proIL-1β en absence de stimulation MDP est détectée dans les macrophages des patients Muckle-Wells. En conclusion, nos études ont démontré que l'inflammasome-NALP3 doit être finement régulé pour éviter une activité incontrôlée qui représente la base moléculaire des symptômes associés aux syndromes auto-inflammatoires liés à NALP3. Summary Five years ago, the description of the NALP family originated from the discovery of a new death-domain fold family, the PYD domain. NALP contains aprotein-protein interaction domain (PYD), an oligomerization domain (NACHT) and a ligand-sensing domain, leucine rich repeats or LRR. This protein architecture shares similarity with receptors involved in immunity, such as NODS, Toll receptors (TLRs) and related plant resistance proteins, and points to an important role of NALPs in defense mechanisms. We first described the minimal complex involved in the pro-inflammatory Interleukin-1beta (IL-1β) cytokine maturation, called the inflammasome, which contains NALP3. In contrast to NALP1, NALP3, like other members of the NALP family, is devoid of C-terminal FIIND and CARD domains and does not interact with the pro-inflammatory caspase-5. Interestingly, a homolog of the C-terminal portion of NALP1 was found in the human genome and was named Cardinal. We found that NALP2 and NALP3 interact with the CARD-containing proteins Cardinal. Cardinal is able to bind to caspase-1 but is not required for IL-1β maturation through NALP3 activation, as demonstrated for the adaptor ASC. Secondly, our study focused on the stimuli involved in the activation of the NALP3 inflammasome. MDP was shown to induce the expression of proIL1β through NOD2 and then the maturation into active IL-1β by activation of the NALP3 inflammasome. However, in the monocytic THP1 cell line, secretion of IL-1β upon MDP stimulation seems to be independent of the inflammasome activation compared to human primary monocytes. This difference might be linked to a Cardinal-interacting protein, filamin. Until now, the role of Cardinal and filamin is still unknown and remains to be elucidated. Finally, mutations in the NALP3/cryopyrin/CIAS1 gene are associated with three autoinflammatory diseases: Muckle-Wells syndrome, familial cold autoinflammatory syndrome, and CINCA. Constitutive, elevated IL-1β maturation and secretion, even in the absence of MDP stimulation, was observed in macrophages from Muckle-Wells patients and confirmed a key role for the NALP3 inflammasome in innate immunity In conclusion, our studies describes the formation of the NALP3 inflammasome and suggests that this complex has to be tightly regulated to avoid an increased deregulated inflammasome activity that is the molecular basis for the symptoms associated with NALP3-dependent autoinflammatory disorders.

Armazenagem de pequenos insetos secos em bandeja-manta adaptada de "cd box"

The display tray holds the specimens over a thin cotton layer glued to a thick paper attached to the cd holder tray. Althought only a temporary storing method, it is a good alternative when compared to other layer models. It has the advantages of low cost, protection of specimens, minimal or no damage, as well as good visibility through its cover.

Calibration of stochastic volatility models via second order approximation: the Heston model case

Using a suitable Hull and White type formula we develop a methodology to obtain asecond order approximation to the implied volatility for very short maturities. Using thisapproximation we accurately calibrate the full set of parameters of the Heston model. Oneof the reasons that makes our calibration for short maturities so accurate is that we alsotake into account the term-structure for large maturities. We may say that calibration isnot "memoryless", in the sense that the option's behavior far away from maturity doesinfluence calibration when the option gets close to expiration. Our results provide a wayto perform a quick calibration of a closed-form approximation to vanilla options that canthen be used to price exotic derivatives. The methodology is simple, accurate, fast, andit requires a minimal computational cost.

A new approach to accurate measurement of uniaxial joint angles based on a combination of accelerometers and gyroscopes.

A new method of measuring joint angle using a combination of accelerometers and gyroscopes is presented. The method proposes a minimal sensor configuration with one sensor module mounted on each segment. The model is based on estimating the acceleration of the joint center of rotation by placing a pair of virtual sensors on the adjacent segments at the center of rotation. In the proposed technique, joint angles are found without the need for integration, so absolute angles can be obtained which are free from any source of drift. The model considers anatomical aspects and is personalized for each subject prior to each measurement. The method was validated by measuring knee flexion-extension angles of eight subjects, walking at three different speeds, and comparing the results with a reference motion measurement system. The results are very close to those of the reference system presenting very small errors (rms = 1.3, mean = 0.2, SD = 1.1 deg) and excellent correlation coefficients (0.997). The algorithm is able to provide joint angles in real-time, and ready for use in gait analysis. Technically, the system is portable, easily mountable, and can be used for long term monitoring without hindrance to natural activities.

The presence of a CD4+ CD25high CD45RO+ CD127high T-cell population correlates with the clinical status of kidney transplant recipients

Background: Recent data have suggested that a population of CD4+ CD25high T cells, phenotypically characterized by the expression of CD45RO and CD127, is significantly expanded in stable liver and kidney transplant recipients and represents alloreactive T cells. We analyzed this putative new alloreactive cellular marker in various groups of kidney transplant recipients. Patients and methods: Flow cytometry was used to analyze the expression of CD25, CD45RO and CD127 on peripheral CD4+ T cells. Of 73 kidney recipients, 59 had a stable graft function under standard immunosuppressive therapy (IS), 5 had biopsy-proven chronic humoral rejection (CHR), 8 were stable under minimal IS and one was an operationally "tolerant" patient who had discontinued IS for more than 3 years. Sixty-six healthy subjects (HS) were studied as controls. Results: Overall, the alloreactive T cell population was found to be significantly increased in the 73 kidney recipients (mean ± SE: 15.03 ± 1.04% of CD4+ CD25high T cells) compared to HS (5.93 ± 0.39%) (p <0.001). In the 5 patients with CHR, this population was highly expanded (31.33 ± 4.16%), whereas it was comparable to HS in the 8 stable recipients receiving minimal IS (6.12 ± 0.86%), in 4 patients who had been switched to sirolimus (4.21 ± 0.53%) as well as in the unique "tolerant" recipient (4.69%). Intermediate levels (15.84 ± 0.93%) were found in the 55 recipients with stable graft function on standard CNI-based IS. Regulatory T cells, defined as CD4+ CD25high FoxP3+ CD127low, were found to be significantly reduced in all recipients except in those with minimal or no IS, and this reduction was particularly striking in recipients with CHR. Conclusion: After kidney transplantation, an alloreactive T cell population was found to be significantly expanded and it correlates with the clinical status of the recipients. Interestingly, in stable patients with minimal (or no) IS as well as in patients on sirolimus, alloreactive T cells were comparable the healthy controls. Measuring circulating CD4+ CD25high CD45RO+ CD127high T cells may become a useful monitoring tool after transplantation.

Imaging of the unstable plaque: how far have we got?

Rupture of unstable plaques may lead to myocardial infarction or stroke and is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in western countries. Thus, there is a clear need for identifying these vulnerable plaques before the rupture occurs. Atherosclerotic plaques are a challenging imaging target as they are small and move rapidly, especially in the coronary tree. Many of the currently available imaging tools for clinical use still provide minimal information about the biological characteristics of plaques, because they are limited with respect to spatial and temporal resolution. Moreover, many of these imaging tools are invasive. The new generation of imaging modalities such as magnetic resonance imaging, nuclear imaging such as positron emission tomography and single photon emission computed tomography, computed tomography, fluorescence imaging, intravascular ultrasound, and optical coherence tomography offer opportunities to overcome some of these limitations. This review discusses the potential of these techniques for imaging the unstable plaque.

Bringing game theory to hypothesis testing: Establishing finite sample bounds on inference

Small sample properties are of fundamental interest when only limited data is avail-able. Exact inference is limited by constraints imposed by speci.c nonrandomizedtests and of course also by lack of more data. These e¤ects can be separated as we propose to evaluate a test by comparing its type II error to the minimal type II error among all tests for the given sample. Game theory is used to establish this minimal type II error, the associated randomized test is characterized as part of a Nash equilibrium of a .ctitious game against nature.We use this method to investigate sequential tests for the di¤erence between twomeans when outcomes are constrained to belong to a given bounded set. Tests ofinequality and of noninferiority are included. We .nd that inference in terms oftype II error based on a balanced sample cannot be improved by sequential sampling or even by observing counter factual evidence providing there is a reasonable gap between the hypotheses.

An experimental study of adaptive behavior in an oligopolistic market game

We consider an oligopolistic market game, in which the players are competing firm in the same market of a homogeneous consumption good. The consumer side is represented by a fixed demand function. The firms decide how much to produce of a perishable consumption good, and they decide upon a number of information signals to be sent into the population in order to attract customers. Due to the minimal information provided, the players do not have a well--specified model of their environment. Our main objective is to characterize the adaptive behavior of the players in such a situation.

Prevalence of beryllium sensitization in patients diagnosed with sarcoidosis

Occupational exposure to beryllium (Be) may lead to development of Be-specific CD4+ T-cell immune response and occurrence of a granulomatous disorder called chronic beryllium disease (CBD). Due to similar clinical pictures, CBD may be misdiagnosed as sarcoidosis if Be exposure (BeE) and Be sensitization (BeS) are not looked for. To determine whether some patients diagnosed as sarcoidosis may have undetected CBD, we screened a retrospective cohort of patients with sarcoidosis for BeE and BeS. BeE was assessed through a self-administered questionnaire and a standardized occupational health interview. BeS was assessed using CFSE flow cytometry developed as an alternative to the classical Be lymphocyte proliferation test (BeLPT). 159 patients recorded in a Swiss interstitial lung disease registry with a diagnosis of sarcoidosis were enrolled through their pulmonary physician and received a screening questionnaire. 68 filled questionnaires were returned. 28/68 patients had positive screening. 24/28 underwent an occupational health interview. BeE was considered probable in 6/24 and possible in 18/24. Using CFSE flow cytometry, BeS was detected in 7/24 of these patients (4/6 with probable BeE and 3/18 with possible BeE). BeS testing by CFSE flow cytometry was positive in 5/6 controls with proven CBD and positive BeLPT, and negative in 10 healthy subjects. Conclusions: the minimal rate of BeE and BeS in an unselected population of patients with sarcoidosis was 7/159 (4.4%), suggesting misdiagnosed CBD. A screening questionnaire could help to detect BeE in patients diagnosed with sarcoidosis, and prompt investigations in search of CBD. CFSE flow cytometry may be an alternative to BeLPT to document BeS.

The effect of intergroup competition on group coordination: An experimental study

We report an experiment on the effect of intergroup competition on group coordination in the minimal-effort game (Van Huyck et al., 1990). The competition was between two 7-person groups. Each player in each group independently chose an integer from 1 to 7. The group with the higher minimum won the competition and each of its members was paid according to the game s original payoff matrix. Members of the losing group were paid nothing. In case of a tie, each player was paid half the payoff in the original matrix. This treatment was contrasted with two control treatments where each of the two groups played an independent coordination game, either with or without information about the minimum chosen by the outgroup. Although the intergroup competition does not change the set of strict equilibria, we found that it improved collective rationality by moving group members in the direction of higher-payoff equilibria. Merely providing group members with information about the minimal-effort level in the other group was not sufficient to generate this effect.