Applying machine learning methods to avalanche forecasting

Avalanche forecasting is a complex process involving the assimilation of multiple data sources to make predictions over varying spatial and temporal resolutions. Numerically assisted forecasting often uses nearest neighbour methods (NN), which are known to have limitations when dealing with high dimensional data. We apply Support Vector Machines to a dataset from Lochaber, Scotland to assess their applicability in avalanche forecasting. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) belong to a family of theoretically based techniques from machine learning and are designed to deal with high dimensional data. Initial experiments showed that SVMs gave results which were comparable with NN for categorical and probabilistic forecasts. Experiments utilising the ability of SVMs to deal with high dimensionality in producing a spatial forecast show promise, but require further work.

Biomarkers of oxidative stress and its association with the urinary reducing capacity in bus maintenance workers.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to particles (PM) induces adverse health effects (cancer, cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases). A key-role in these adverse effects seems to be played by oxidative stress, which is an excess of reactive oxygen species relative to the amount of reducing species (including antioxidants), the first line of defense against reactive oxygen species. The aim of this study was to document the oxidative stress caused by exposure to respirable particles in vivo, and to test whether exposed workers presented changes in their urinary levels for reducing species.METHODS: Bus depot workers (n = 32) exposed to particles and pollutants (respirable PM4, organic and elemental carbon, particulate metal content, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, NOx, O3) were surveyed over two consecutive days. We collected urine samples before and after each shift, and quantified an oxidative stress biomarker (8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine), the reducing capacity and a biomarker of PAH exposure (1-hydroxypyrene). We used a linear mixed model to test for associations between the oxidative stress status of the workers and their particle exposure as well as with their urinary level of reducing species.RESULTS: Workers were exposed to low levels of respirable PM4 (range 25-71 μg/m3). However, urinary levels of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine increased significantly within each shift and between both days for non-smokers. The between-day increase was significantly correlated (p < 0.001) with the concentrations of organic carbon, NOx, and the particulate copper content. The within-shift increase in 8OHdG was highly correlated to an increase of the urinary reducing capacity (Spearman ρ = 0.59, p < 0.0001).CONCLUSIONS: These findings confirm that exposure to components associated to respirable particulate matter causes a systemic oxidative stress, as measured with the urinary 8OHdG. The strong association observed between urinary 8OHdG with the reducing capacity is suggestive of protective or other mechanisms, including circadian effects. Additional investigations should be performed to understand these observations.

Alternate Methods of Bridge Strengthening, HR-302, 1989

The need for upgrading a large number of understrength and obsolete bridges in the United States has been well documented in the literature. Through the performance of several Iowa DOT projects, the concept of strengthening bridges (simple and continuous spans) by post-tensioning has been developed. The purpose of this project was to investigate two additional strengthening alternatives that may be more efficient than post-tensioning in certain situations. The research program for each strengthening scheme included a literature review, laboratory testing of the strengthening scheme, and a finite-element analysis of the scheme. For clarity the two strengthening schemes are presented separately. In Part 1 of this report, the strengthening of existing steel stringers in composite steel beam concrete-deck bridges by providing partial end restraint was shown to be feasible. Part 2 of this report summarizes the research that was undertaken to strengthen the negative moment regions of continuous, composite bridges. Two schemes were investigated: post-compression of stringers and superimposed trusses within the stringers.

Production and Evaluation of Calcium Magnesium Acetate, HR-243, 1982

Calcium magnesium acetate (CMA) has been identified by Bjorksten Research Laboratories as an environmentally harmless alternative to sodium or calcium chloride for deicing highways. Their study found CMA to be noncorrosive to steel, aluminum and zinc with little or no anticipated environmental impact. When used, it degrades into elements found in abundance in nature. The deicing capabilities were found to be similar to sodium chloride. The neutralized CMA they produced did cause scaling of PC concrete, but they did not expect mildly alkaline CMA to have this effect. In the initial investigation of CMA at the Iowa DOT laboratory, it was found that CMA produced from hydrated lime and acetic acid was a light, fluffy material. It was recognized that a deicer in this form would be difficult to effectively distribute on highways without considerable wind loss. A process was developed to produce CMA in the presence of sand to increase particle weight. In this report the product of this process, which consists of sand particles coated with CMA, is referred to as "CMA deicer". The mixture of salts, calcium magnesium acetate, is referred to as "CMA". The major problems with CMA for deicing are: (1) it is not commercially available, (2) it is expensive with present production methods and (3) there is very little known about how it performs on highways under actual deicing conditions. In view of the potential benefits this material offers, it is highly desirable to find solutions or answers to these problems. This study provides information to advance that effort. The study consisted of four principal tasks which were: 1. Production of CMA Deicer The objective was to further develop the laboratory process for producing CMA deicer on a pilot plant basis and to produce a sufficient quantity for field trials. The original proposal called for producing 20 tons of CMA deicer. 2. Field Evaluation of CMA Deicer The objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of CMA deicer when used under field conditions and obtain information on application procedures. Performance was compared with a regular 50/50 mixture of sand and sodium chloride. 3. Investigation of Effects of CMA on PC Concrete The objective was to determine any scaling effect that mildly alkaline CMA might have on PC concrete. Comparison was made with calcium chloride. 4. Determine Feasibility of Producing High Magnesium CMA The objective was to investigate the possibility of producing a CMA deicer with magnesium acetate content well above that produced from dolomitic lime. A high magnesium acetate content is desirable because pure magnesium acetate has a water eutectic of -22 F° as compared with +5 F° for calcium acetate and is therefore a more effective deicer.

Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks. Part 1: a guide to Bayesian parameter estimation using forensic science data

As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches - with the help of Bayesian networks - for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).

Refinement of Rapid PCC Coarse Aggregate Testing Program, HR-1071, 1999

The characterization and categorization of coarse aggregates for use in portland cement concrete (PCC) pavements is a highly refined process at the Iowa Department of Transportation. Over the past 10 to 15 years, much effort has been directed at pursuing direct testing schemes to supplement or replace existing physical testing schemes. Direct testing refers to the process of directly measuring the chemical and mineralogical properties of an aggregate and then attempting to correlate those measured properties to historical performance information (i.e., field service record). This is in contrast to indirect measurement techniques, which generally attempt to extrapolate the performance of laboratory test specimens to expected field performance. The purpose of this research project was to investigate and refine the use of direct testing methods, such as X-ray analysis techniques and thermal analysis techniques, to categorize carbonate aggregates for use in portland cement concrete. The results of this study indicated that the general testing methods that are currently used to obtain data for estimating service life tend to be very reliable and have good to excellent repeatability. Several changes in the current techniques were recommended to enhance the long-term reliability of the carbonate database. These changes can be summarized as follows: (a) Limits that are more stringent need to be set on the maximum particle size in the samples subjected to testing. This should help to improve the reliability of all three of the test methods studied during this project. (b) X-ray diffraction testing needs to be refined to incorporate the use of an internal standard. This will help to minimize the influence of sample positioning errors and it will also allow for the calculation of the concentration of the various minerals present in the samples. (c) Thermal analysis data needs to be corrected for moisture content and clay content prior to calculating the carbonate content of the sample.

Comparing simulation methods for modelling the errors of stand inventory data

Abstract

Evaluation of Alternative Methods to Obtain Specific Gravity of Coarse Aggregate, MLR-89-7, 1990

AASHTO has a standard test method for determining the specific gravity of aggregates. The people in the Aggregate Section of the Central Materials Laboratory perform the AASHTO T-85 test for AMRL inspections and reference samples. Iowa's test method 201B, for specific gravity determinations, requires more time and more care to perform than the AASHTO procedure. The major difference between the two procedures is that T-85 requires the sample to be weighed in water and 201B requires the 2 quart pycnometer jar. Efficiency in the Central Laboratory would be increased if the AASHTO procedure for coarse aggregate specific gravity determinations was adopted. The questions to be answered were: (1) Do the two procedures yield the same test results? (2) Do the two procedures yield the same precision? An experiment was conducted to study the different test methods. From the experimental results, specific gravity determinations by AASHTO T-85 method were found to correlate to those obtained by the Iowa 201B method with an R-squared value of 0.99. The absorption values correlated with an R-squared value of 0.98. The single operator precision was equivalent for the two methods. Hence, this procedure was recommended to be adopted in the Central Laboratory.

Evaluation of Appropriate Maintenance, Repair and Rehabilitation Methods for Iowa Bridges, TR-429, 2003

Most states, including Iowa, have a significant number of substandard bridges. This number will increase significantly unless some type of preventative maintenance is employed. Both the Iowa Department of Transportation and Iowa counties have successfully employed numerous maintenance, repair and rehabilitation (MR&R) strategies for correcting various types of deficiencies. However, successfully employed MR&R procedures are often not systematically documented or defined for those involved in bridge maintenance. This study addressed the need for a standard bridge MR&R manual for Iowa with emphasis for secondary road applications. As part of the study, bridge MR&R activities that are relevant to the state of Iowa have been systematically categorized into a manual, in a standardized format. Where pertinent, design guidelines have been presented. Material presented in this manual is divided into two major categories: 1) Repair and Rehabilitation of Bridge Superstructure Components, and 2) Repair and Rehabilitation of Bridge Substructure Components. There are multiple subcategories within both major categories that provide detailed information. Some of the detailed information includes step-by-step procedures for accomplishing MR&R activities, material specifications and detailed drawings where available. The source of information contained in the manual is public domain technical literature and information provided by Iowa County Engineers. A questionnaire was sent to all 99 counties in Iowa to solicit information and the research team personally solicited input from many Iowa counties as a follow-up to the questionnaire.

Retrofit Methods for Distortion Cracking Problems in Plate Girder Bridges, TR-436, 2003

This report is formatted to independently present four individual investigations related to similar web gap fatigue problems. Multiple steel girder bridges commonly exhibit fatigue cracking due to out-of-plane displacement of the web near the diaphragm connections. This fatigue-prone web gap area is typically located in negative moment regions of the girders where the diaphragm stiffener is not attached to the top flange. In the past, the Iowa Department of Transportation has attempted to stop fatigue crack propagation in these steel girder bridges by drilling holes at the crack tips. Other nondestructive retrofits have been tried; in a particular case on a two-girder bridge with floor beams, angles were bolted between the stiffener and top flange. The bolted angle retrofit has failed in the past and may not be a viable solution for diaphragm bridges. The drilled hole retrofit is often only a temporary solution, so a more permanent and effective retrofit is required. A new field retrofit has been developed that involves loosening the bolts in the connection between the diaphragm and the girders. Research on the retrofit has been initiated; however, no long-term studies of the effects of bolt loosening have been performed. The intent of this research is to study the short-term effects of the bolt loosening retrofit on I-beam and channel diaphragm bridges. The research also addressed the development of a continuous remote monitoring system to investigate the bolt loosening retrofit on an X-type diaphragm bridge over a number of months, ensuring that the measured strain and displacement reductions are not affected by time and continuous traffic loading on the bridge. The testing for the first three investigations is based on instrumentation of web gaps in a negative moment region on Iowa Department of Transportation bridges with I-beam, channel, and X-type diaphragms. One bridge of each type was instrumented with strain gages and deflection transducers. Field tests, using loaded trucks of known weight and configuration, were conducted on the bridges with the bolts in the tight condition and after implementing the bolt loosening retrofit to measure the effects of loosening the diaphragm bolts. Long-term data were also collected on the X-diaphragm bridge by a data acquisition system that collected the data continuously under ambient truck loading. The collected data were retrievable by an off-site modem connection to the remote data acquisition system. The data collection features and ruggedness of this system for remote bridge monitoring make it viable as a pilot system for future monitoring projects in Iowa. Results indicate that loosening the diaphragm bolts reduces strain and out-of-plane displacement in the web gap, and that the reduction is not affected over time by traffic or environmental loading on the bridge. Reducing the strain in the web gap allows the bridge to support more cycles of loading before experiencing fatigue, thus increase the service life of the bridge. Two-girder floor beam bridges may also exhibit fatigue cracking in girder webs.