965 resultados para Mean Field Analysis


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Objective Biomonitoring of solvents using the unchanged substance in urine as exposure indicator is still relatively scarce due to some discrepancies between the results reported in the literature. Based on the assessment of toluene exposure, the aim of this work was to evaluate the effects of some steps likely to bias the results and to measure urinary toluene both in volunteers experimentally exposed and in workers of rotogravure factories. Methods Static headspace was used for toluene analysis. o-Cresol was also measured for comparison. Urine collection, storage and conservation conditions were studied to evaluate possible loss or contamination of toluene in controlled situations applied to six volunteers in an exposure chamber according to four scenarios with exposure at stable levels from 10 to 50 ppm. Kinetics of elimination of toluene were determined over 24 h. A field study was then carried out in a total of 29 workers from two rotogravure printing facilities. Results Potential contamination during urine collection in the field is confirmed to be a real problem but technical precautions for sampling, storage and analysis can be easily followed to control the situation. In the volunteers at rest, urinary toluene showed a rapid increase after 2 h with a steady level after about 3 h. At 47.1 ppm the mean cumulated excretion was about 0.005% of the amount of the toluene ventilated. Correlation between the toluene levels in air and in end of exposure urinary sample was excellent (r = 0.965). In the field study, the median personal exposure to toluene was 32 ppm (range 3.6-148). According to the correlations between environmental and biological monitoring data, the post-shift urinary toluene (r = 0.921) and o-cresol (r = 0.873) concentrations were, respectively, 75.6 mu g/l and 0.76 mg/g creatinine for 50 ppm toluene personal exposure. The corresponding urinary toluene concentration before the next shift was 11 mu g/l (r = 0.883). Conclusion Urinary toluene was shown once more time a very interesting surrogate to o-cresol and could be recommended as a biomarker of choice for solvent exposure. [Authors]

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Network analysis naturally relies on graph theory and, more particularly, on the use of node and edge metrics to identify the salient properties in graphs. When building visual maps of networks, these metrics are turned into useful visual cues or are used interactively to filter out parts of a graph while querying it, for instance. Over the years, analysts from different application domains have designed metrics to serve specific needs. Network science is an inherently cross-disciplinary field, which leads to the publication of metrics with similar goals; different names and descriptions of their analytics often mask the similarity between two metrics that originated in different fields. Here, we study a set of graph metrics and compare their relative values and behaviors in an effort to survey their potential contributions to the spatial analysis of networks.

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The basal sliding surfaces in large rockslides are often composed of several surfaces and possess a complex geometry. The exact morphology and location in three dimensions of the sliding surface remains generally unknown, in spite of extensive field and subsurface investigations, such as those at the Åknes rockslide (western Norway). This knowledge is crucial for volume estimations, failure mechanisms, and numerical slope stability modeling. This paper focuses on the geomorphologic characterization of the basal sliding surface of a postglacial rockslide scar in the vicinity of Åknes. This scar displays a stepped basal sliding surface formed by dip slopes of the gneiss foliation linked together by steeply dipping fractures. A detailed characterization of the rockslide scar by means of high-resolution digital elevation models permits statistical parameters of dip angle, spacing, persistence, and roughness of foliation surfaces and step fractures to be obtained. The characteristics are used for stochastic simulations of stepped basal sliding surfaces at the Åknes rockslide. These findings are compared with previous models based on geophysical investigations. This study discusses the investigation of rockslide scars and rock outcrops for a better understanding of potential rockslides. This work identifies possible basal sliding surface locations, which is a valuable input for volume estimates, design and location of monitoring instrumentation, and numerical slope stability modeling.

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Moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with lower coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. However, data on the CAD risk associated with high alcohol consumption are conflicting. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of heavier drinking on 10-year CAD risk in a population with high mean alcohol consumption. In a population-based study of 5,769 adults (aged 35 to 75 years) without cardiovascular disease in Switzerland, 1-week alcohol consumption was categorized as 0, 1 to 6, 7 to 13, 14 to 20, 21 to 27, 28 to 34, and > or =35 drinks/week or as nondrinkers (0 drinks/week), moderate (1 to 13 drinks/week), high (14 to 34 drinks/week), and very high (> or =35 drinks/week). Blood pressure and lipids were measured, and 10-year CAD risk was calculated according to the Framingham risk score. Seventy-three percent (n = 4,214) of the participants consumed alcohol; 16% (n = 909) were high drinkers and 2% (n = 119) very high drinkers. In multivariate analysis, increasing alcohol consumption was associated with higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (from a mean +/- SE of 1.57 +/- 0.01 mmol/L in nondrinkers to 1.88 +/- 0.03 mmol/L in very high drinkers); triglycerides (1.17 +/- 1.01 to 1.32 +/- 1.05 mmol/L), and systolic and diastolic blood pressure (127.4 +/- 0.4 to 132.2 +/- 1.4 mm Hg and 78.7 +/- 0.3 to 81.7 +/- 0.9 mm Hg, respectively) (all p values for trend <0.001). Ten-year CAD risk increased from 4.31 +/- 0.10% to 4.90 +/- 0.37% (p = 0.03) with alcohol use, with a J-shaped relation. Increasing wine consumption was more related to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, whereas beer and spirits were related to increased triglyceride levels. In conclusion, as measured by 10-year CAD risk, the protective effect of alcohol consumption disappears in very high drinkers, because the beneficial increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol is offset by the increases in blood pressure levels.

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Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.