Marginal and Interaction Effects in Ordered Response Models

In discrete choice models the marginal effect of a variable of interest that is interacted with another variable differs from the marginal effect of a variable that is not interacted with any variable. The magnitude of the interaction effect is also not equal to the marginal effect of the interaction term. I present consistent estimators of both marginal and interaction effects in ordered response models. This procedure is general and can easily be extended to other discrete choice models.

Assessment of habitat representation across a network of marine protected areas with implications for the spatial design of monitoring

Networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) are being adopted globally to protect ecosystems and supplement fisheries management. The state of California recently implemented a coast-wide network of MPAs, a statewide seafloor mapping program, and ecological characterizations of species and ecosystems targeted for protection by the network. The main goals of this study were to use these data to evaluate how well seafloor features, as proxies for habitats, are represented and replicated across an MPA network and how well ecological surveys representatively sampled fish habitats inside MPAs and adjacent reference sites. Seafloor data were classified into broad substrate categories (rock and sediment) and finer scale geomorphic classifications standard to marine classification schemes using surface analyses (slope, ruggedness, etc.) done on the digital elevation model derived from multibeam bathymetry data. These classifications were then used to evaluate the representation and replication of seafloor structure within the MPAs and across the ecological surveys. Both the broad substrate categories and the finer scale geomorphic features were proportionately represented for many of the classes with deviations of 1-6% and 0-7%, respectively. Within MPAs, however, representation of seafloor features differed markedly from original estimates, with differences ranging up to 28%. Seafloor structure in the biological monitoring design had mismatches between sampling in the MPAs and their corresponding reference sites and some seafloor structure classes were missed entirely. The geomorphic variables derived from multibeam bathymetry data for these analyses are known determinants of the distribution and abundance of marine species and for coastal marine biodiversity. Thus, analyses like those performed in this study can be a valuable initial method of evaluating and predicting the conservation value of MPAs across a regional network.

Marginal efficiencies of long chain-polyunsaturated fatty acid use by barramundi (Lates calcarifer) when fed diets with varying blends of fish oil and poultry fat

An experiment was conducted with barramundi (Lates calcarifer) juveniles to examine the marginal efficiency of utilisation of long chain-polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC-PUFA). A series of five diets with blends of fish (anchovy) oil and poultry fat (F100:P0, F60:P40, F30:P70, F15:P85, F0:P100) were fed to 208. ±. 4.1. g fish over a 12-week period. The replacement of fish oil with poultry fat had no impact on growth performance (average final weight of 548.3. ±. 10.2. g) or feed conversion (mean = 1.14. ±. 0.02). Analysis of the whole body composition showed that the fatty acid profile reflected that of the fed diet. However it was also shown that there was a disproportional retention of some fatty acids relative to others (notably LOA, 18:2n-6 and LNA, 18:3n-3). By examining the body mass independent retention of different fatty acids with differential levels of intake of each, the marginal efficiencies of the use of these nutrients by this species were able to be determined. The differential retention of fatty acids in the meat was also examined allowing the determination of oil blending strategies to optimise meat n-3 LC-PUFA levels.

Obesity in adults: an emerging problem in urban areas of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of overweight, obesity and underweight among Vietnamese adults living in urban areas of Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam. DESIGN: This cross-sectional survey was conducted in the local health stations of 30 randomly selected wards, which represent all 13 urban districts of HCMC, over a period of 2 months from March to April 2004. SUBJECTS: A total of 1488 participants aged 20-60 years completed the interview, physical examination and venous blood collection. MEASUREMENTS: Anthropometric measurements of body weight, height, waist and hip circumference were taken to construct indicators of adiposity including body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and waist-to-height and waist-to-hip ratios. Both systolic and diastolic blood pressure and biochemical indicators of cardiovascular disease and type II diabetes risk (lipid profile and fasting blood glucose) were also measured. RESULTS: The age and sex standardized prevalence of overweight and obesity using Asian specific BMI cutoffs of 23.0 and 27.5 kg/m2 was 26.2 and 6.4%, respectively. The prevalence of overweight and obesity was slightly higher in females (33.6%) than males (31.6%), and progressively increased with age. The age and sex-standardized prevalence of underweight (BMI <18.5 kg/m2) among Vietnamese adults living in HCMC was 20.4%. The prevalence was slightly higher in males (22.0%) than in females (18.9%), and there was a much higher prevalence in all underweight categories in younger women than in men but this was reversed for older men. CONCLUSION: The adult population in HCMC Vietnam is in an early 'nutrition transition' with approximately equal prevalence of low and high BMI. The prevalence of overweight and obesity of Vietnamese urban adults was lower than that reported for other east and southeast Asian countries.

Hazard Areas Associated with Major Volcanoes in the Cascade Mountain Range

The Cascade Mountain Range in Washington State is the site of several active volcanoes that have the potential to erupt which would deeply affect the lives of those who live near them. This study explores the hazard areas associated with the five largest volcanoes in the region: Mt. Baker, Glacier Peak, Mt. Rainier, Mt. Adams and Mt. St. Helens. It was determined which geographic regions would be affected by tephra, pyroclastic blasts and lahar flows and the associated populations that live in each of these areas. The level of emergency preparedness necessary for a volcanic eruption could be better determined based on the findings of this study.

Reducing The Risk Of Floods In Urban Areas With Combined Inland-River System

With the change of the water environment in accordance with climate change, the loss of lives and properties has increased due to urban flood. Although the importance of urban floods has been highlighted quickly, the construction of advancement technology of an urban drainage system combined with inland-river water and its relevant research has not been emphasized in Korea. In addition, without operation in consideration of combined inland-river water, it is difficult to prevent urban flooding effectively. This study, therefore, develops the uncertainty quantification technology of the risk-based water level and the assessment technology of a flood-risk region through a flooding analysis of the combination of inland-river. The study is also conducted to develop forecast technology of change in the water level of an urban region through the construction of very short-term/short-term flood forecast systems. This study is expected to be able to build an urban flood forecast system which makes it possible to support decision making for systematic disaster prevention which can cope actively with climate change.

Modeling Of District Metered Areas With Relatively High Leakage Rate. The Case Study Of Kalipoli’s DMA

The article reviews the modelling of District Metered Areas (DMAs) with relatively high leakage rate. As a generally recognised approach in modelling of leakage does not exist, modelling of leakage by enginners and other researchers usually takes place by dividing the whole leakage rate evenly to all available nodes of the model. In this article, a new methodology is proposed to determine the nodal leakage by using a hydraulic model. The proposed methodology takes into consideration the IWA water balance methodology, the Minimum Night Flow (MNF) analysis, the number of connections related to each node and the marerial of pipes. In addition, the model is illustrated by a real case study, as it was applied in Kalipoli’s DMA. Results show that the proposed model gives reliable results.

Development Of Water Pollution Early Warning System For Oyster Harvesting Areas

The objective of this study is to develop a Pollution Early Warning System (PEWS) for efficient management of water quality in oyster harvesting areas. To that end, this paper presents a web-enabled, user-friendly PEWS for managing water quality in oyster harvesting areas along Louisiana Gulf Coast, USA. The PEWS consists of (1) an Integrated Space-Ground Sensing System (ISGSS) gathering data for environmental factors influencing water quality, (2) an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting the level of fecal coliform bacteria, and (3) a web-enabled, user-friendly Geographic Information System (GIS) platform for issuing water pollution advisories and managing oyster harvesting waters. The ISGSS (data acquisition system) collects near real-time environmental data from various sources, including NASA MODIS Terra and Aqua satellites and in-situ sensing stations managed by the USGS and the NOAA. The ANN model is developed using the ANN program in MATLAB Toolbox. The ANN model involves a total of 6 independent environmental variables, including rainfall, tide, wind, salinity, temperature, and weather type along with 8 different combinations of the independent variables. The ANN model is constructed and tested using environmental and bacteriological data collected monthly from 2001 – 2011 by Louisiana Molluscan Shellfish Program at seven oyster harvesting areas in Louisiana Coast, USA. The ANN model is capable of explaining about 76% of variation in fecal coliform levels for model training data and 44% for independent data. The web-based GIS platform is developed using ArcView GIS and ArcIMS. The web-based GIS system can be employed for mapping fecal coliform levels, predicted by the ANN model, and potential risks of norovirus outbreaks in oyster harvesting waters. The PEWS is able to inform decision-makers of potential risks of fecal pollution and virus outbreak on a daily basis, greatly reducing the risk of contaminated oysters to human health.

A gestão da diversidade nas companhias aéreas que atuam no Brasil

Dissertação apresentada ao Programa de Mestrado em Administração da Universidade Municipal de São Caetano do Sul - USCS

A gestão da diversidade nas companhias aéreas que atuam no Brasil

JUSTO, Alexandra Martins Benedetti. A gestão da diversidade nas companhias aéreas que atuam no Brasil. 2012. 195f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Administração) - Universidade Municipal de São Caetano do Sul, São Caetano do Sul, 2012.

Uso de sistemas de informação geografica como subsidio ao planejamento em areas agricolas : um caso no planalto do Rio Grande do Sul

Os Sistemas de Informação Geográfica vêm sendo cada vez mais utilizados em estudos envolvendo o planejamento e gerenciamento de recursos e meio-ambiente. A agricultura é uma das atividades humanas mais intimamente relacionadas com o meio ambiente. Este trabalho investiga o emprego desses sistemas para integrar diferentes informações relacionadas à produção agrícola e obter respostas que subsidiem o planejamento em regiões agrícolas.A área estudada é uma localidade do município de Não-me-Toque, situado no planalto médio do Rio Grande do Sul, entre as coordenadas 28°21' e 28°34'sul e 53°40' e 53°57'oeste. Os resultados evidenciaram as vantagens dos Sistemas de Informação Geográfica sobre os métodos convencionais de análise, especialmente no que se refere à velocidade, precisão e à associação dos dados de interesse à sua localização geográfica.

Estudo da instabilidade de feixes de condutores em linhas aéreas de transmissão

A demanda de energia elétrica tem aumentado consideravelmente com o observado crescimento da atividade industrial, exigindo o desenvolvimento de novas tecnologias para aumentar a capacidade de transporte de energia por linha. Neste sentido, as linhas de transmissão de alta voltagem, anteriormente formadas por condutores isolados, podem ter a sua capacidade expressivamente incrementada dispondo-se os condutores em feixes, ou seja, com mais de um condutor por fase. A ação do vento nos condutores em forma de feixes originam problemas vibratórios diferentes daqueles comumente encontrados em condutores isolados. Além de oscilações por galope e desprendimento de vórtices, feixes são suscetíveis a oscilações de baixa freqüência causada pelo efeito de interferência das esteiras entre os condutores. Estas oscilações são de dois tipos: (i) movimento de sub-vão, que é característico do condutor a sotavento, o qual pode-se deslocar independentemente dos outros condutores vizinhos, e (ii) movimento de vão completo, no qual movimentos do feixe ocorrem no vão compreendido entre as torres de suporte. Alguns trabalhos na literatura consideram os movimentos de vão completo em condutores coberto por gelo, mas pouca informação se tem sobre o estudo de oscilações em feixes sem a presença de gelo. Devido a complexidade destes fenômenos, não há ainda critérios claros quanto à estabilidade do feixe para as configurações usuais de linhas deste tipo. Este trabalho tem então como objetivo inicial apresentar as principais características dinâmicas de condutores isolados e em feixes. Além disso, apresentar uma análise dos parâmetros que influenciam os movimentos, dentre os quais são citados: características do terreno, velocidade e turbulência do vento, número e arranjo dos condutores, rugosidade do condutor, espaçamento entre condutores, inclinação do feixe, sistemas de espaçadores e de suspensão, tração do condutor, freqüências naturais e efeito de flecha. Ensaios em túnel de vento são normalmente realizados com o propósito de obter-se dados de tipos específicos de condutores e configurações de feixes de condutores. Posteriormente, estes dados podem ser utilizados na análise teórica dos movimentos dos condutores a fim de prever-se a estabilidade dos mesmos. Neste trabalho foram projetados experimentos do tipo estático, que permitiram a obtenção dos coeficientes aerodinâmicos e suas derivadas em relação aos ângulos de incidência do vento em feixes de cabos. Para isto utilizaram-se duas células de carga com extensômetros, onde em uma delas mediu-se diretamente as forças de arrasto e de sustentação e na outra os momentos de torção. Os experimentos foram conduzidos no túnel de vento Prof. Joaquim Blessmann, da UFRGS. Os modelos eram compostos por condutores rígidos de pequeno comprimento que estavam dispostos isoladamente, em feixe de 02 cabos dispostos lado-a-lado ou em feixes de 04 cabos dispostos na configuração de um quadrado. Os ensaios foram realizados para diferentes espaçamentos entre os cabos (10, 14, 18 e 22 diâmetros), para diversos ângulos de inclinação do feixe (0o a 45o) e ainda para diferentes velocidades e condições de escoamento (suave ou turbulento). Os ensaios foram realizados com cabos lisos e cabos do tipo Rook ACSR 24/7, a fim de analisar-se a influência da rugosidade no comportamento dos modelos. Adicionalmente, foi desenvolvida uma aplicação da análise do problema de instabilidade dinâmica através da utilização de equações linearizadas do movimento de condutores em feixe. A partir destas equações, determinam-se as regiões de instabilidade das oscilações de vão completo, em feixes de dois e quatro condutores. Os coeficientes aerodinâmicos utilizados nestas equações foram aqueles determinados nos ensaios no túnel de vento Prof. Blessmann. Finalmente, o conhecimento da influência dos parâmetros vinculados as características do feixe, vão e vento incidente nos coeficientes aerodinâmicos e na conseqüente estabilidade do feixe, possibilita a determinação de alguns critérios de projeto que garantam maior estabilidade dos feixes de condutores.