Methods for constructing uncertainty intervals for queries of Bayesian nets

In this paper the issue of finding uncertainty intervals for queries in a Bayesian Network is reconsidered. The investigation focuses on Bayesian Nets with discrete nodes and finite populations. An earlier asymptotic approach is compared with a simulation-based approach, together with further alternatives, one based on a single sample of the Bayesian Net of a particular finite population size, and another which uses expected population sizes together with exact probabilities. We conclude that a query of a Bayesian Net should be expressed as a probability embedded in an uncertainty interval. Based on an investigation of two Bayesian Net structures, the preferred method is the simulation method. However, both the single sample method and the expected sample size methods may be useful and are simpler to compute. Any method at all is more useful than none, when assessing a Bayesian Net under development, or when drawing conclusions from an ‘expert’ system.

General practitioners learning qualitative research: A case study of postgraduate education

Background Qualitative research is increasingly being recognised as a vital aspect of primary healthcare research. Teaching and learning how to conduct qualitative research is especially important for general practitioners and other clinicians in the professional educational setting. This article examines a case study of postgraduate professional education in qualitative research for clinicians, for the purpose of enabling a robust discussion around teaching and learning in medicine and the health sciences. Method A series of three workshops was delivered for primary healthcare academics. The workshops were evaluated using a quantitative survey and qualitative free-text responses to enable descriptive analyses. Results Participants found qualitative philosophy and theory the most difficult areas to engage with, and learning qualitative coding and analysis was considered the easiest to learn. Discussion Key elements for successful teaching were identified, including the use of adult learning principles, the value of an experienced facilitator and an awareness of the impact of clinical subcultures on learning.

Editorial for Journal of Learning Design, 6(3) - "Special issue: Legal education and curriculum renewal"

Welcome to this special edition of the Journal of Learning Design which focuses on legal education and curriculum renewal in law. At the outset ,we would like to thank the editors of the Journal, Margaret Lloyd and Nan Bahr for agreeing to host this special edition. The special edition is timely as legal education in Australia is enjoying a lively period of renewal.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Draft genome and plasmid sequences of Chlamydia pneumoniae strain B21 from an Australian endangered marsupial, the western barred bandicoot

Chlamydia pneumoniae is a ubiquitous intracellular pathogen, first associated with human respiratory disease and subsequently detected in a range of mammals, amphibians, and reptiles. Here we report the draft genome sequence for strain B21 of C. pneumoniae, isolated from the endangered Australian marsupial the western barred bandicoot.

Men in nursing: A thematic analysis of male nursing students experiences of nursing education in regional New Zealand

There is considerable debate about the effects the inclusion of men in nursing have on the quality of patient care and the profession itself. Whilst nursing is seen as a predominately female orientated career, it is often forgotten that the patron saint of nursing is actually a man – St Camillus of Lellis, a 16th century Italian Monk. However, evolution both politically and religiously had meant that the contemporary male figure within the nursing fraternity slowly gave way to women as men became more engaged with careers more befitting their social standing such as medicine, the church or the military Surprisingly, opinion about whether men are suitable within the profession continues to be a divided issue. Men enter the profession for a multitude of reasons, yet barriers whether emotional, verbal or sexual are still present. However, nursing is attractive because the variety of work enables an easy transition between specialties and the scope for career advancement is exciting both clinically and academically especially with the recent inception of nurse practitioner and nurse consultant roles.

The right to a voice and the fight to be heard: The experience of being an ESL user in Australia

This paper focuses on the fundamental right to be heard, that is, the right to have one’s voice heard and listened to – to impose reception (Bourdieu, 1977). It focuses on the ways that non-mainstream English is heard and received in Australia, where despite public policy initiatives around equal opportunity, language continues to socially disadvantage people (Burridge & Mulder, 1998). English is the language of the mainstream and most people are monolingually English (Ozolins, 1993). English has no official status yet it remains dominant and its centrality is rarely challenged (Smolicz, 1995). This paper takes the position that the lack of language engagement in mainstream Australia leads to linguistic desensitisation. Writing in the US context where English is also the unofficial norm, Lippi-Green (1997) maintains that discrimination based on speech features or accent is commonly accepted and widely perceived as appropriate. In Australia, non-standard forms of English are often disparaged or devalued because they do not conform to the ‘standard’ (Burridge & Mulder, 1998). This paper argues that talk cannot be taken for granted: ‘spoken voices’ are critical tools for representing the self and negotiating and manifesting legitimacy within social groups (Miller, 2003). In multicultural, multilingual countries like Australia, the impact of the spoken voice, its message and how it is heard are critical tools for people seeking settlement, inclusion and access to facilities and services. Too often these rights are denied because of the way a person sounds. This paper reports a study conducted with a group that has been particularly vulnerable to ongoing ‘panics’ about language – international students. International education is the third largest revenue source for Australia (AEI, 2010) but has been beset by concerns from academics (Auditor-General, 2002) and the media about student language levels and falling work standards (e.g. Livingstone, 2004). Much of the focus has been high-stakes writing but with the ascendancy of project work in university assessment and the increasing emphasis on oracy, there is a call to recognise the salience of talk, especially among students using English as a second language (ESL) (Kettle & May, 2012). The study investigated the experiences of six international students in a Master of Education course at a large metropolitan university. It utilised data from student interviews, classroom observations, course materials, university policy documents and media reports to examine the ways that speaking and being heard impacted on the students’ learning and legitimacy in the course. The analysis drew on Fairclough’s (2003) model of the dialectical-relational Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) to analyse the linguistic, discursive and social relations between the data texts and their conditions of production and interpretation, including the wider socio-political discourses on English, language difference, and second language use. The interests of the study were if and how discourses of marginalisation and discrimination manifested and if and how students recognised and responded to them pragmatically. Also how they juxtaposed with and/or contradicted the official rhetoric about diversity and inclusion. The underpinning rationale was that international students’ experiences can provide insights into the hidden politics and practices of being heard and afforded speaking rights as a second language speaker in Australia.