Modelling optimal risk allocation in PPP projects using artificial neural networks

This paper aims to establish, train, validate, and test artificial neural network (ANN) models for modelling risk allocation decision-making process in public-private partnership (PPP) projects, mainly drawing upon transaction cost economics. An industry-wide questionnaire survey was conducted to examine the risk allocation practice in PPP projects and collect the data for training the ANN models. The training and evaluation results, when compared with those of using traditional MLR modelling technique, show that the ANN models are satisfactory for modelling risk allocation decision-making process. The empirical evidence further verifies that it is appropriate to utilize transaction cost economics to interpret risk allocation decision-making process. It is recommended that, in addition to partners' risk management mechanism maturity level, decision-makers, both from public and private sectors, should also seriously consider influential factors including partner's risk management routines, partners' cooperation history, partners' risk management commitment, and risk management environmental uncertainty. All these factors influence the formation of optimal risk allocation strategies, either by their individual or interacting effects.

Credit risk of interest rate swaps : a comparative study of CIR and Monte Carlo simulation approach

This paper compares the credit risk profile for two types of model, the Monte Carlo model used in the existing literature, and the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (CIR) model. Each of the profiles has a concave or hump-backed shape, reflecting the amortisation and diffusion effects. However, the CIR model generates significantly different results. In addition, we consider the sensitivity of these models of credit risk to initial interest rates, volatility, maturity, kappa and delta. The results show that the sensitivities vary across the models, and we explore the meaning of that variation.

Australian and US interest rate swap markets : comparison and linkages

We investigate and compare the determinants of US and Australian interest rate swap spreads and the linkages between these markets. The slope of the risk-free term structure is the most significant determinant and its importance is greater for longer terms to maturity. Interest rate levels and, in Australia, the default premium also have some impact. The influences of interest rate volatility, the liquidity premium and (in the USA) the default premium are small or negligible. We hypothesise, and our evidence confirms, that the US swap market significantly affects the Australian swap market but not vice-versa.

Modeling volatility and changes in the swap spread

We investigate the determinants of changes in U.S. interest rate swap spreads using a model that explicitly allows for volatility interactions between swaps of different terms to maturity. Changes in the swap spread are found to be positively related to interest rate volatility, to changes in the default risk premium in the corporate bond market, and to changes in the liquidity premium for government securities. Swap spread changes are negatively related to changes in the level of interest rates and changes in the slope of the term structure. We also find that there is a strong and significant volatility interaction among spreads for swaps of different maturities and that the process for the conditional variance of the spread is highly persistent across all maturities.

Weight status associations with physical activity intensity and physical self-perceptions in 10-to 11-year-old children

The study examined associations between children’s weight status, physical activity intensity, and physical self-perceptions. Data were obtained from 409 children (224 girls) aged 10–11 years categorized as normal-weight or overweight/obese. Physical activity was assessed using accelerometry, and children completed the Physical Self-Perception Profile. After controlling for the effects of age, maturation, and socioeconomic status vigorous physical activity was significantly associated with normal-weight status among boys (OR = 1.13, p = .01) and girls (OR = 1.13, p = .03). Normal-weight status was significantly associated with perceived Physical Condition (Boys: OR = 5.05, p = .008; Girls: OR = 2.50, p = .08), and Body Attractiveness (Boys: OR = 4.44, p = .007; Girls: OR = 2.56, p = .02). Weight status of 10–11 year old children was significantly associated with time spent in vigorous physical activity and self-perceptions of Body Attractiveness and Physical Condition.

Biennial reproductive cycle in an extensive matrotrophic viviparous batoid : the sandyback stingaree Urolophus bucculentus from south-eastern Australia

Urolophus bucculentus, the largest urolophid species found in southern Australia, exhibits a biennial reproductive cycle. Ovulation occurs during October to January followed by a 15–19 month period of gestation followed by parturition during April to May and a short rest period while the ovarian follicles continue to develop for subsequent ovulation. Male breeding condition peaks during April to June to coincide with the period of parturition. Urolophus bucculentus has the highest matrotrophic contribution reported for any urolophid species, with a mean wet mass gain from egg in utero (4 g) to full-term embryo in utero (250 g) of c. 6250% (maximum c. 7200%), and perhaps explains the biennial female reproductive cycle where 50% of females contribute to each year's recruitment. Litter size (one to five) increases with total length (L_T). Females reach a longer maximum L_T (L_Tmax) than do males (885 v. 660 mm). The L_T at maturity for males and females at 50% mature (L_T50) is c. 414 mm (63% of L_Tmax) for males and c. 502 mm (57% of L_Tmax) for females, length at maternity indicates that recruitment production occurs later in life at c. 632 mm L_T (71% of L_Tmax).

Biological vulnerability of two exploited sharks of the genus Deania (Centrophoridae)

Life-history parameters of Deania calcea and Deania quadrispinosa suggested that their productivity was very low. Maturity (L_T50) occurs at c. 80% of maximum observed total lengths (L_T) for both species and sexes. A large proportion of mature females were neither pre-ovulatory nor pregnant, and the reproductive cycle included a distinct resting phase after pregnancy. For D. calcea, mean ovarian fecundity was 12 and maximum observed litter size was 10 (average of six); D. quadrispinosa averaged 17 pups per litter. Birth L_T was 28-33 cm for D. calcea and 23-25 cm for D. quadrispinosa. The male and female reproductive cycles were aseasonal, and consequently, the length of the reproductive cycle could not be determined. Preliminary ageing data from dorsal-spine growth bands suggested that female D. calcea lived to 31-36 years and males to 24-32 years. The L_T-at-age data using external bands on the spines showed maturity occurring at 15·5 years (males) and 21·5 years (females), whereas banding on the internal dentine indicated maturity at 10·5 and 17·5 years for males and females. Thus, a female lifetime of 31-36 years allowed for a maximum of 7 litters if a 2 year cycle is assumed or only five litters with a 3 year cycle, resulting in a lifetime fecundity of only 42 pups (2 year cycle) or even lower (3 year cycle).

Aspects of the biology of Galaxias maculatus

The biology of three landlocked and a riverine population of Galaxias maculatus were examined in western Victoria, Australia. All systems supported reproducing populations of these fish, including Lake Corangamite which had salinities that on occasion reached 82. Spawning sites in Lake Corangamite were located in adjacent tributaries and not in the main lake as was the case for other populations. The smallest fish were found in the fresh water Lake Purrumbete and the largest in the hypersaline Lake Corangamite. The size at which 50% of the population attained sexual maturity varied across sites, with fish maturing at a smaller size in Lake Purrumbete, followed by the Merri River, Lake Bullen Merri and Lake Corangamite. Condition was higher in the freshwater Lake Purrumbete and there was no relationship between condition and temperature, conductivity, turbidity and pH; but there was a positive relationship between condition and dissolved oxygen. Length frequency analysis suggested that the majority of fishes live for a year.

Real estate employability : differing perceptions of graduates from undergraduate and postgraduate courses

Purpose – Employability is likely to be at the forefront of any degree applicant's mind in England and Wales due to an impending large increase in the cost of tuition. The purpose of this paper is to report the findings of a Centre for Education in the Built Environment-funded project which has investigated real estate graduate competencies and employability. The paper concentrates on significant differences in emphasis by graduates from undergraduate (UG) and postgraduate (PG) courses.

Design/methodology/approach – Following an extensive literature review, 72 competencies have been identified and the Confederation of British Industry classification of knowledge, skills and attributes has been adopted. An online survey of 639 graduates (half UG and half PG) asked respondents to complete five-point Likert attitude scales to rate how their course enabled development of the 72 competencies. Themes developed from the results of the questionnaire study have been explored in greater detail with five real estate education providers and the human resource managers of four large London employers.

Findings – Rather surprisingly, UGs rated their gaining of the vast majority of the competencies more highly than PGs. This finding seems to be at odds with the impression given by the educators and employers, both of whom perceive a preference for the greater maturity and commercial awareness of graduates from PG courses.

Originality/value – Real estate course providers can use the results of this study to ensure that their programmes of study adequately address what is likely to become the crucial factor in the choice of any future programme of study – employability.

Applying King et al.'s taxonomy to frame the IS discipline's engagement in green IS discourse

This paper considers how the IS discipline can engage with discourse on the institutions and their interventions which influence and regulate green IS innovation. To consider possible responses, we apply King et al.’s (1994) taxonomy, based on Institutional Theory, to frame a research agenda to guide future exploration and debate on the interventions to facilitate green IS innovation. Through the application of the taxonomy, we derive several pertinent questions for the discipline to consider as part of this debate. We conclude that the IS discipline can, and indeed should, play a more prominent role both through traditional responses (e.g., descriptive studies of green IS methodologies, organisational best practice, maturity models, etc.), but also through more active engagement in the form of participation and advocacy in shaping future green policy and regulation.

Establishment and development of a seabird colony : long-term trends in phenology, breeding success, recruitment, breeding density and demography

Few studies document long-term colony-level metrics from colony establishment to maturity (equilibrium) and few test predictions of general models of colony development. We describe long-term trends in a colony of Australasian Gannets (Morus serrator) which has been monitored from an early stage in its development. The colony at Pope’s Eye, within Port Phillip Bay, Victoria, Australia was established in 1984 on an artificial structure and the first nest count (25 nests) was conducted in the same year. The colony was then studied for 15 of 19 years between 1988 and 2006–2007. During the study, 2,516 eggs were recorded, resulting in 1,694 chicks hatching (67 % of eggs), of which 1,310 (77 % of those hatched) fledged. At least 184 (14 %) of fledged offspring returned to Pope’s Eye as breeding adults. Since establishment, the number and density of nests increased (number of nests increased 8.8 % annually), with density increasing at varying rates in different areas of the colony. Early recruitment involved birds from a nearby colony, but within 5 years post establishment the first natal recruits were breeding at Pope’s Eye and thereafter natal recruitment was the main source of new breeding adults (totalling 81.4 % of all recruits). Age of recruitment varied throughout the study, though not systematically, and there was no difference between the sexes. The pattern of rapid initial growth is typical of patterns reported for other seabird colonies. However, as the colony (and birds within it) aged, there was no increase in breeding success and egg laying did not become earlier, as was expected from general models of colony development.

The cries of a frustrated reformer : Lindsay Tanner’s vexed history with the left

Lindsay Tanner was one of a generation of Labor activists who came to political maturity in the 1980s. These were challenging years for the Australian left.

Lessons in aiding journalism and democracy: a study of Australian educators working in the Asia Pacific region

 This paper examines assumptions about democracy and the role of media held by journalism educators working outside Australia, and the extent to which those assumptions influence teaching styles, regardless of the maturity of the political systems in the nations in question. This paper looks at the work emerging from academics Beate Josephi, Barbie Zelizer, John Nerone, Cherian George and Silvio Waisbord, who argue in Journalism (2012) that there needs to be a change to the understanding by journalism scholars of the central place of journalism in democracy because that view is not global in its perspective. This paper specifically considers Zelizer’s point that “much of the scholarly world in the West – and specifically in the United States – depends directly or indirectly on the presumption of democracy and its accoutrements”. The researcher asks, “what can we learn about our Australian perspective on teaching journalism in the developing world where there may not, yet, be an operating democracy or a form of democracy that replicates the Western liberal model?”

Life in the really slow lane : loggerhead sea turtles mature late relative to other reptiles

1. Age at maturity is hard to estimate for species that cannot be directly marked or observed throughout their lives and yet is a key demographic parameter that is needed to assess the conservation status of endangered species. 2. For loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, juvenile growth rates (c. 10 cm year−1) were calculated by examining size increases during transoceanic journeys; durations of which were estimated from satellite-tracked Lagrangian surface drifter buoy trajectories. 3. Lagrangian-derived growth estimates were used in a weighted loglinear model of size-specific growth rates for loggerhead turtles and combined with newly available information on size at maturity to estimate an age at maturity of 45 years (older than past estimates). 4. By examining the age at maturity for 79 reptile species, we show that loggerhead turtles, along with other large-bodied Testudine (turtle and tortoise) species, take longer to reach maturity than other reptile species of comparable sizes. This finding heightens concern over the future sustainability of turtle populations. By maturing at an old age, sea turtles will be less resilient to anthropogenic mortality than previously suspected.

Minke whales maximise energy storage on their feeding grounds

Seasonal trends in energy storage of the minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata), a capital breeder, were investigated in Iceland, a North Atlantic feeding ground. The aim was to better understand the energy acquisition strategies of minke whales and the energetic costs that different reproductive classes face during the breeding season. We modelled total blubber volume, using blubber thickness and morphometric measurements of individual whales. Blubber volume was influenced by body length, and was higher for pregnant females than mature whales. Blubber volume increased linearly through the feeding season at the same rate for mature (mean ± s.e.m.=0.0028±0.00103 m3 day -1; N=61 male, 5 female) and pregnant whales (0.0024±0.00100 m3 day-1; N=49), suggesting that minke whales aim to maximise energy storage while on the feeding grounds. The total amount of blubber accumulated over the feeding season (0.51±0.119 m3 for mature and 0.43±0.112 m3 for pregnant whales), together with energy stored as muscle and intra-abdominal fats, constitutes the total amount of energy available for reproduction (fetus development and lactation) on the breeding grounds, as well as migration, daily field metabolic rates, growth and body maintenance. No seasonal variation was observed for immature whales (N=4 male, 12 female), suggesting that they are investing most of their excess energy into growth rather than reproduction, in order to reach the length of sexual maturity faster and start reproducing earlier. Our novel modelling approach provides insight into large whale bioenergetics and life history strategies, as well as the relationship between single-site measurement of blubber thickness and total blubber volume.