Modelling habitat selection and distribution of the critically endangered Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus in scrub jungle: an application of a new tracking method

1. Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is a nocturnally active cursorial bird that is only known to occur in a small area of scrub jungle in Andhra Pradesh, India, and is listed as critically endangered by the IUCN. Information on its habitat requirements is needed urgently to underpin conservation measures. We quantified the habitat features that correlated with the use of different areas of scrub jungle by Jerdon's coursers, and developed a model to map potentially suitable habitat over large areas from satellite imagery and facilitate the design of surveys of Jerdon's courser distribution. 2. We used 11 arrays of 5-m long tracking strips consisting of smoothed fine soil to detect the footprints of Jerdon's coursers, and measured tracking rates (tracking events per strip night). We counted the number of bushes and trees, and described other attributes of vegetation and substrate in a 10-m square plot centred on each strip. We obtained reflectance data from Landsat 7 satellite imagery for the pixel within which each strip lay. 3. We used logistic regression models to describe the relationship between tracking rate by Jerdon's coursers and characteristics of the habitat around the strips, using ground-based survey data and satellite imagery. 4. Jerdon's coursers were most likely to occur where the density of large (>2 m tall) bushes was in the range 300-700 ha(-1) and where the density of smaller bushes was less than 1000 ha(-1). This habitat was detectable using satellite imagery. 5. Synthesis and applications. The occurrence of Jerdon's courser is strongly correlated with the density of bushes and trees, and is in turn affected by grazing with domestic livestock, woodcutting and mechanical clearance of bushes to create pasture, orchards and farmland. It is likely that there is an optimal level of grazing and woodcutting that would maintain or create suitable conditions for the species. Knowledge of the species' distribution is incomplete and there is considerable pressure from human use of apparently suitable habitats. Hence, distribution mapping is a high conservation priority. A two-step procedure is proposed, involving the use of ground surveys of bush density to calibrate satellite image-based mapping of potential habitat. These maps could then be used to select priority areas for Jerdon's courser surveys. The use of tracking strips to study habitat selection and distribution has potential in studies of other scarce and secretive species.

The impact of contractor selection method on transaction costs: a review

The basic premise of transaction-cost theory is that the decision to outsource, rather than to undertake work in-house, is determined by the relative costs incurred in each of these forms of economic organization. In construction the "make or buy" decision invariably leads to a contract. Reducing the costs of entering into a contractual relationship (transaction costs) raises the value of production and is therefore desirable. Commonly applied methods of contractor selection may not minimise the costs of contracting. Research evidence suggests that although competitive tendering typically results in the lowest bidder winning the contract this may not represent the lowest project cost after completion. Multi-parameter and quantitative models for contractor selection have been developed to identify the best (or least risky) among bidders. A major area in which research is still needed is in investigating the impact of different methods of contractor selection on the costs of entering into a contract and the decision to outsource.

Selection rules for rovibronic transitions in symmetric top molecules

A simple diagrammatic rule is presented for determining the rotational selection rules governing transitions between any pair of vibronic states in electric dipole spectra of symmetric top molecules. The rule is useful in cases where degenerate vibronic levels with first-order Coriolis splittings occur, because it gives immediately the selection rule for the (+l) and (-l) components in any degenerate state. The rule is also helpful in determining the symmetry species and the effective zeta constants in overtone and combination levels involving degenerate vibrations. Particular attention is devoted to the conventions concerning the signs of zeta constants.

Raman selection rules for vibration-rotation transitions in symmetric top molecules

Symmetry restrictions on Raman selection rules can be obtained, quite generally, by considering a Raman allowed transition as the result of two successive dipole allowed transitions, and imposing the usual symmetry restrictions on the dipole transitions. This leads to the same results as the more familiar polarizability theory, but the vibration-rotation selection rules are easier to obtain by this argument. The selection rules for symmetric top molecules involving the (+l) and (-l) components of a degenerate vibrational level with first-order Coriolis splitting are derived in this paper. It is shown that these selection rules depend on the order of the highest-fold symmetry axis Cn, being different for molecules with n=3, n=4, or n ≧ 5; moreover the selection rules are different again for molecules belonging to the point groups Dnd with n even, and Sm with 1/2m even, for which the highest-fold symmetry axes Cn and Sm are related by m=2n. Finally it is shown that an apparent anomaly between the observed Raman and infra-red vibration-rotation spectra of the allene molecule is resolved when the correct selection rules are used, and a value for the A rotational constant of allene is derived without making use of the zeta sum rule.

Selection of candidate coding DNA barcoding regions for use on land plants

An in silico screen of 41 of the 81 coding regions of the Nicotiana plastid genome generated a shortlist of 12 candidates as DNA barcoding loci for land plants. These loci were evaluated for amplification and sequence variation against a reference set of 98 land plant taxa. The deployment of multiple primers and a modified multiplexed tandem polymerase chain reaction yielded 85–94% amplification across taxa, and mean sequence differences between sister taxa of 6.1 from 156 bases of accD to 22 from 493 bases of matK. We conclude that loci should be combined for effective diagnosis, and recommend further investigation of the following six loci: matK, rpoB, rpoC1, ndhJ, ycf5 and accD.

Infrared and Raman selection rules for cyclopentane

Infra-red and Raman selection rules are obtained for the cyclopentane molecule, on the assumption that it has a free pseudo-rotation with a large potential hump at the D5h configuration. The selection rules obtained, which concern the vibrational, pseudo-rotational, and rotational quantum numbers, are summarized in tables 1, 2 and 3.

Model selection for the mixed logit with Bayesian estimation

In this paper, the mixed logit (ML) using Bayesian methods was employed to examine willingness-to-pay (WTP) to consume bread produced with reduced levels of pesticides so as to ameliorate environmental quality, from data generated by a choice experiment. Model comparison used the marginal likelihood, which is preferable for Bayesian model comparison and testing. Models containing constant and random parameters for a number of distributions were considered, along with models in ‘preference space’ and ‘WTP space’ as well as those allowing for misreporting. We found: strong support for the ML estimated in WTP space; little support for fixing the price coefficient a common practice advocated and adopted in the environmental economics literature; and, weak evidence for misreporting.

Bayesian estimation and selection of nonlinear vector error correction models: The case of the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially nonlinear functions of the disequilibrium errors. A range of models are estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms and compared using Bayesian model selection methods. The results suggest that the long-run drivers of Brazilian sugar prices are oil prices and that there are nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of sugar and ethanol prices to oil price but linear adjustment between ethanol and sugar prices.

Bias from farmer self-selection in genetically modified crop productivity estimates: Evidence from Indian data

In the continuing debate over the impact of genetically modified (GM) crops on farmers of developing countries, it is important to accurately measure magnitudes such as farm-level yield gains from GM crop adoption. Yet most farm-level studies in the literature do not control for farmer self-selection, a potentially important source of bias in such estimates. We use farm-level panel data from Indian cotton farmers to investigate the yield effect of GM insect-resistant cotton. We explicitly take into account the fact that the choice of crop variety is an endogenous variable which might lead to bias from self-selection. A production function is estimated using a fixed-effects model to control for selection bias. Our results show that efficient farmers adopt Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton at a higher rate than their less efficient peers. This suggests that cross-sectional estimates of the yield effect of Bt cotton, which do not control for self-selection effects, are likely to be biased upwards. However, after controlling for selection bias, we still find that there is a significant positive yield effect from adoption of Bt cotton that more than offsets the additional cost of Bt seed.

Improving participatory varietal selection processes: participatory varietal selection and the role of informal seed diffusion mechanisms for upland rice in Ghana

This paper considers the process of Participatory Varietal Selection (PVS) and presents approaches and ideas based on PVS activities conducted on upland rice throughout Ghana between 1997 and 2003. In particular the role of informal seed systems in PVS is investigated and implications for PVS design are identified. PVS programmes were conducted in two main agroecological zones, Forest and Savannah, with 1,578 and 1,143 mm of annual rainfall, respectively, and between 40 and 100 varieties tested at each site. In the Savannah zone IR12979-24-1 was officially released and in the Forest zone IDSA 85 was widely accepted by farmers. Two surveys were conducted in an area of the Forest zone to study mechanisms of spread. Here small amounts (1-2 kg) of seed of selected varieties had been given to 94 farmers. In 2002, 37% of 2,289 farmers in communities surveyed had already grown a PVS variety and had obtained seed via informal mechanisms from other farmers, i.e. through gift, exchange or purchase. A modified approach for PVS is presented which enables important issues identified in the paper to be accommodated. These issues include: utilising existing seed spread mechanisms; facilitating formal release of acceptable varieties; assessing post-harvest traits, and; the need for PVS to be an ongoing and sustainable process.

Direct versus indirect sexual selection: genetic basis of colour, size and recruitment in a wild bird

Indirect and direct models of sexual selection make different predictions regarding the quantitative genetic relationships between sexual ornaments and fitness. Indirect models predict that ornaments should have a high heritability and that strong positive genetic covariance should exist between fitness and the ornament. Direct models, on the other hand, make no such assumptions about the level of genetic variance in fitness and the ornament, and are therefore likely to be more important when environmental sources of variation are large. Here we test these predictions in a wild population of the blue tit (Parus caeruleus), a species in which plumage coloration has been shown to be under sexual selection. Using 3 years of cross-fostering data from over 250 breeding attempts, we partition the covariance between parental coloration and aspects of nestling fitness into a genetic and environmental component. Contrary to indirect models of sexual selection, but in agreement with direct models, we show that variation in coloration is only weakly heritable (h(2) < 0.11), and that two components of offspring fitness-nestling size and fledgling recruitment-are strongly dependent on parental effects, rather than genetic effects. Furthermore, there was no evidence of significant positive genetic covariation between parental colour and offspring traits. Contrary to direct benefit models, however, we find little evidence that variation in colour reliably indicates the level of parental care provided by either males or females. Taken together, these results indicate that the assumptions of indirect models of sexual selection are not supported by the genetic basis of the traits reported on here.

Bayesian ranking and selection of fishing boat efficiencies

The steadily accumulating literature on technical efficiency in fisheries attests to the importance of efficiency as an indicator of fleet condition and as an object of management concern. In this paper, we extend previous work by presenting a Bayesian hierarchical approach that yields both efficiency estimates and, as a byproduct of the estimation algorithm, probabilistic rankings of the relative technical efficiencies of fishing boats. The estimation algorithm is based on recent advances in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods—Gibbs sampling, in particular—which have not been widely used in fisheries economics. We apply the method to a sample of 10,865 boat trips in the US Pacific hake (or whiting) fishery during 1987–2003. We uncover systematic differences between efficiency rankings based on sample mean efficiency estimates and those that exploit the full posterior distributions of boat efficiencies to estimate the probability that a given boat has the highest true mean efficiency.