Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging due to reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semi-structured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision-making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. All scenarios showed increased wildfire risk in the event of more droughts. The ‘Hands-off’ scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production. The ‘Fire management’ scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the ‘Fire suppression’ scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a ‘boundary object’ to facilitate collaboration and integration of different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire in the region. This approach has also the potential to support decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Large reorganizations in butterfly communities during an extreme weather event

Drought events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude, which may alter the composition of ecological communities. Using a functional community metric that describes abundance, life history traits and conservation status, based upon Grime’s CSR (Competitive-Stress tolerant-Ruderal)¬ scheme, we investigated how British butterfly communities changed during an extreme drought in 1995. Throughout Britain, the total abundance of these insects had a significant tendency to increase, accompanied by substantial changes in community composition, particularly in more northerly, wetter sites. Communities tended to shift away from specialist, vulnerable species, and towards generalist, widespread species and, in the year following, communities had yet to return to equilibrium. Importantly, heterogeneity in surrounding landscapes mediated community responses to the drought event. Contrary to expectation, however, community shifts were more extreme in areas of greater topographic diversity, whilst land-cover diversity buffered community changes and limited declines in vulnerable specialist butterflies.

Comparing species and measures of landscape structure as indicators of conservation importance

P>1. The use of indicators to identify areas of conservation importance has been challenged on several grounds, but nonetheless retains appeal as no more parsimonious approach exists. Among the many variants, two indicator strategies stand out: the use of indicator species and the use of metrics of landscape structure. While the first has been thoroughly studied, the same cannot be said about the latter. We aimed to contrast the relative efficacy of species-based and landscape-based indicators by: (i) comparing their ability to reflect changes in community integrity at regional and landscape spatial scales, (ii) assessing their sensitivity to changes in data resolution, and (iii) quantifying the degree to which indicators that are generated in one landscape or at one spatial scale can be transferred to additional landscapes or scales. 2. We used data from more than 7000 bird captures in 65 sites from six 10 000-ha landscapes with different proportions of forest cover in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. Indicator species and landscape-based indicators were tested in terms of how effective they were in reflecting changes in community integrity, defined as deviations in bird community composition from control areas. 3. At the regional scale, indicator species provided more robust depictions of community integrity than landscape-based indicators. At the landscape scale, however, landscape-based indicators performed more effectively, more consistently and were also more transferable among landscapes. The effectiveness of high resolution landscape-based indicators was reduced by just 12% when these were used to explain patterns of community integrity in independent data sets. By contrast, the effectiveness of species-based indicators was reduced by 33%. 4. Synthesis and applications. The use of indicator species proved to be effective; however their results were variable and sensitive to changes in scale and resolution, and their application requires extensive and time-consuming field work. Landscape-based indicators were not only effective but were also much less context-dependent. The use of landscape-based indicators may allow the rapid identification of priority areas for conservation and restoration, and indicate which restoration strategies should be pursued, using remotely sensed imagery. We suggest that landscape-based indicators might often be a better, simpler, and cheaper strategy for informing decisions in conservation.

Effects of species turnover on reserve site selection in a fragmented landscape

Changes in species composition is an important process in many ecosystems but rarely considered in systematic reserve site selection. To test the influence of temporal variability in species composition on the establishment of a reserve network, we compared network configurations based on species data of small mammals and frogs sampled during two consecutive years in a fragmented Atlantic Forest landscape (SE Brazil). Site selection with simulated annealing was carried out with the datasets of each single year and after merging the datasets of both years. Site selection resulted in remarkably divergent network configurations. Differences are reflected in both the identity of the selected fragments and in the amount of flexibility and irreplaceability in network configuration. Networks selected when data for both years were merged did not include all sites that were irreplaceable in one of the 2 years. Results of species number estimation revealed that significant changes in the composition of the species community occurred. Hence, temporal variability of community composition should be routinely tested and considered in systematic reserve site selection in dynamic systems.

Consequences of Simulated Loss of Open Cerrado Areas to Bird Functional Diversity

Over the past 35 years, more than two thirds of the Cerrado`s original expanse has been taken by agriculture. Even if some attempts have been made to conserve closed cerrado physiognomies, open cerrado physiognomies, richer in species and more fragile, have been systematically ignored. These open physiognomies are used by almost half of the Cerrado bird species, many of which being endemics. Using data from 11 surveys carried out in Cerrado landscapes, we asked what would happen to bird functional diversity if open cerrado species became extinct. Open cerrado birds would be able to keep on average 59% of the functional diversity. If they became extinct, on average 27% of the functional diversity would be lost. In this case, the remaining functional diversity would be lower than what would be expected by chance in five sites. Although many functions were shared by both open cerrado and forest species, there was some degree of complementarity between them, highlighted by the decrease in functional diversity when the former became extinct. Destruction of open cerrado physiognomies would lead to a habitat simplification, decrease in bird functional diversity, and, ultimately, to a considerable impact on community functioning. Thus, open cerrado physiognomies must receive much more conservation attention than they are currently receiving, because they maintain a high bird functional diversity that would otherwise be considerably diminished Were open cerrado species to become extinct.

Edge effects as the principal cause of area effects on birds in fragmented secondary forest

Bird communities in tropical forests are strongly affected by both patch area and habitat edges. The fact that both effects are intrinsically confounded in space raises questions about how these two widely reported ecological patterns interact, and whether they are independent or simply different spatial manifestations of the same phenomenon. Moreover, do small patches of secondary forest, in landscapes where the most sensitive species have gone locally extinct, exhibit similar patterns to those previously observed in fragmented and continuous primary forests? We addressed these questions by testing edge-related differences in vegetation structure and bird community composition at 31 sites in fragmented and continuous landscapes in the imperilled Atlantic forest of Brazil. Over a two-year period, birds were captured with mist nets to a standardized effort of 680 net-hours at each site (similar to 22 000 net-hours resulting in 3381 captures from 114 species). We found that the bird community in patches of secondary forest was degraded in species composition compared to primary continuous forest, but still exhibited a strong response to edge effects. In fragmented secondary forests, edge and area effects also interacted, such that the magnitude of edge to interior differences on bird community composition declined markedly with patch size. The change in bird species composition between forest interiors and edges was similar to the change in community composition between large and small patches (because species had congruent responses to edge and area), but after controlling for edge effects community composition was no longer affected by patch area. Our results show that although secondary forests hold an impoverished bird community, ecological patterns such as area and edge effects are similar to those reported for primary forests. Our data provide further evidence that edge effects are the main drivers of area effects in fragmented landscapes.

Landscape perception by forest understory birds in the Atlantic Rainforest: black-and-white versus shades of grey

Even among forest specialists, species-specific responses to anthropogenic forest fragmentation may vary considerably. Some appear to be confined to forest interiors, and perceive a fragmented landscape as a mosaic of suitable fragments and hostile matrix. Others, however, are able to make use of matrix habitats and perceive the landscape in shades of grey rather than black-and-white. We analysed data of 42 Chiroxiphia caudata (Blue Manakin), 10 Pyriglena leucoptera (White-shouldered Fire-eye) and 19 Sclerurus scansor (Rufous-breasted Leaftosser) radio-tracked in the Atlantic Rainforest of Brazil between 2003 and 2005. We illustrate how habitat preferences may determine how species respond to or perceive the landscape structure. We compared available with used habitat to develop a species-specific preference index for each of six habitat classes. All three species preferred old forest, but relative use of other classes differed significantly. S. scansor perceived great contrast between old forest and matrix, whereas the other two species perceived greater habitat continuity. For conservation planning, our study offers three important messages: (1) some forest specialist species are able to persist in highly fragmented landscapes; (2) some forest species may be able to make use of different anthropogenic habitat types to various degrees; whereas (3) others are restricted to the remaining forest fragments. Our study suggests species most confined to forest interiors to be considered as potential umbrella species for landscape-scale conservation planning.

Habitat Split as a Cause of Local Population Declines of Amphibians with Aquatic Larvae

Most amphibian species have biphasic life histories and undergo an ontogenetic shift from aquatic to terrestrial habitats. In deforested landscapes, streams and forest fragments are frequently disjunct, jeopardizing the life cycle of forest-associated amphibians with aquatic larvae. We tested the impact of habitat split-defined as human-induced disconnection between habitats used by different life-history stages of a species-on four forest-associated amphibian species in a severely fragmented landscape of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We surveyed amphibians in forest fragments with and without streams (referred to as wet and dry fragments, respectively), including the adjacent grass-field matrix. Our comparison of capture rates in dry fragments and nearby streams in the matrix allowed us to evaluate the number of individuals that engaged in high-risk migrations through nonforested habitats. Adult amphibians moved from dry fragments to matrix streams at the beginning of the rainy season, reproduced, and returned at the end of the breeding period. Juveniles of the year moved to dry fragments along with adults. These risky reproductive migrations through nonforested habitats that expose individuals to dehydration, predation, and other hazards may cause population declines in dry fragments. Indeed, capture rates were significantly lower in dry fragments compared with wet fragments. Declining amphibians would strongly benefit from investments in the conservation and restoration of riparian vegetation and corridors linking breeding and nonbreeding areas.

Are corridors, fragment size and forest structure important for the conservation of leaf-litter lizards in a fragmented landscape?

To investigate the implications of forest fragmentation for conservation of leaf-litter lizards the importance of fragment size, corridors and forest structure was examined in 20 forest fragments and six localities within a continuous forest in the Atlantic Plateau of Sao Paulo state, Brazil. The fragments were 2-276 ha in area and had different degrees of connectivity depending on the presence or absence of corridors. Two species of lizards were dominant, Ecpleopus gaudichaudii and Enyalius perditus. Variation in forest structure among sites was important only in explaining the abundance of E. perditus. Regardless of variation in forest structure, lizard species composition, total lizard abundance, number of species and abundance of E. perditus were sensitive to fragmentation per se but not to fragment size or corridor linkage. The inhospitable matrix surrounding fragments is probably what determines the presence and abundance of E. perditus and the high er lizard richness in continuous forests. These conditions may have prevented lizard species from recolonizing the forest fragments. Our results emphasize that the conservation of this leaf-litter fauna depends on the maintenance of large tracts of continuous forests and not on the size of fragments or on the presence of forest connections. Strategies for conservation of leaf-litter lizards in such highly fragmented Atlantic Forest landscapes should consider the enlargement of landscape connectivity between fragments and continuous forest, allowing the latter areas to act as a source of individuals for fragments.

Are leaf-litter frogs and lizards affected by edge effects due to forest fragmentation in Brazilian Atlantic forest?

FAPESP Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo

Can agroforest woodlots work as stepping stones for birds in the Atlantic forest region?

In fragmented landscapes, agroforest woodlots can potentially act as stepping stones facilitating movement between forest fragments. We assessed the influence of agroforest woodlots on bird distribution and diversity in the Atlantic forest region (SE Brazil), and also tested which categories of species can use different types of connection elements, and whether this use is influenced by the distance to large forest patches. We studied two fragmented landscapes, with and without stepping stones linking large fragments, and one forested landscape. Using a point count, a bird survey was undertaken in the fragmented landscapes in five different elements: large remnants (> 400 ha), agroforest woodlots (0.4-1.1 ha), small patches (0.5-7 ha), riparian corridor, and pasture areas (the main matrix). Generalist and open-area species were commonly observed in the agroforest system or other connection elements, whereas only a few forest species were present in these connections. For the latter species, the distance of woodlots to large patches was essential to determine their richness and abundance. Based on our results and data from literature, we suggest that there is an optimal relationship between the permeability of the matrix and the efficiency of stepping stones, which occurs at intermediate degrees of matrix resistance, and is species-dependent. Because the presence of agroforest system favors a higher richness of generalist species, they appeared to be more advantageous for conservation than the monoculture system; for this reason, they should be considered as a management alternative, particularly when the matrix permeability requirement is met.

Fragmentation drives tropical forest fragments to early successional states: A modelling study for Brazilian Atlantic forests

Land use leads to massive habitat destruction and fragmentation in tropical forests. Despite its global dimensions the effects of fragmentation on ecosystem dynamics are not well understood due to the complexity of the problem. We present a simulation analysis performed by the individual-based model FORMIND. The model was applied to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world`s biodiversity hot spots, at the Plateau of Sao Paulo. This study investigates the long-term effects of fragmentation processes on structure and dynamics of different sized remnant tropical forest fragments (1-100 ha) at community and plant functional type (PFT) level. We disentangle the interplay of single effects of different key fragmentation processes (edge mortality, increased mortality of large trees, local seed loss and external seed rain) using simulation experiments in a full factorial design. Our analysis reveals that particularly small forest fragments below 25 ha suffer substantial structural changes, biomass and biodiversity loss in the long term. At community level biomass is reduced up to 60%. Two thirds of the mid- and late-successional species groups, especially shade-tolerant (late successional climax) species groups are prone of extinction in small fragments. The shade-tolerant species groups were most strongly affected; its tree number was reduced more than 60% mainly by increased edge mortality. This process proved to be the most powerful of those investigated, explaining alone more than 80% of the changes observed for this group. External seed rain was able to compensate approximately 30% of the observed fragmentation effects for shade-tolerant species. Our results suggest that tropical forest fragments will suffer strong structural changes in the long term, leading to tree species impoverishment. They may reach a new equilibrium with a substantially reduced subset of the initial species pool, and are driven towards an earlier successional state. The natural regeneration potential of a landscape scattered with forest fragments appears to be limited, as external seed rain is not able to fully compensate for the observed fragmentation-induced changes. Our findings suggest basic recommendations for the management of fragmented tropical forest landscapes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Movements of neotropical understory passerines affected by anthropogenic forest edges in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest

Edge effects are suggested to have great impact on the persistence of species in fragmented landscapes. We tested edge avoidance by forest understory passerines in the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest and also compared their mobility and movement patterns in contiguous and fragmented landscapes to assess whether movements would increase in the fragmented landscape. Between 2003 and 2005, 96 Chiroxiphia caudata, 38 Pyriglena leucoptera and 27 Sclerurus scansor were radio-tracked. The most strictly forest species C. caudata and S scansor avoided forest edges while P leucoptera showed affinities for the edge Both sensitive species showed larger mean step length and maximal observed daily distance in the fragmented forest versus the unfragmented forest. P. leucoptera did not show any significant difference. There were no significant differences in proportional daily home range use for any of the three species. Our results suggested that fragmentation and the consequent increase in edge areas do influence movement behavior of sensitive forest understory birds that avoided the use of edges and increased the speed and distance they covered daily. For the most restricted forest species, it would be advisable to protect larger patches of forest instead of many small or medium fragments connected by narrow corridors. However, by comparing our data with that obtained earlier, we concluded that movement behavior of resident birds differs from that of dispersing birds and might not allow to infer functional connectivity or landscape-scale sensitivity to fragmentation; a fact that should be taken into consideration when suggesting conservation strategies. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.