Bayesian modelling of surveillance and proof of freedom : the mathematical, logical & psychological challenges

Keeping exotic plant pests out of our country relies on good border control or quarantine. However with increasing globalization and mobilization some things slip through. Then the back up systems become important. This can include an expensive form of surveillance that purposively targets particular pests. A much wider net is provided by general surveillance, which is assimilated into everyday activities, like farmers checking the health of their crops. In fact farmers and even home gardeners have provided a front line warning system for some pests (eg European wasp) that could otherwise have wreaked havoc. Mathematics is used to model how surveillance works in various situations. Within this virtual world we can play with various surveillance and management strategies to "see" how they would work, or how to make them work better. One of our greatest challenges is estimating some of the input parameters : because the pest hasn't been here before, it's hard to predict how well it might behave: establishing, spreading, and what types of symptoms it might express. So we rely on experts to help us with this. This talk will look at the mathematical, psychological and logical challenges of helping experts to quantify what they think. We show how the subjective Bayesian approach is useful for capturing expert uncertainty, ultimately providing a more complete picture of what they think... And what they don't!

The hazards of starting and quitting smoking: Some Australian evidence

The empirical analysis employs individual level data from the Australian Health Survey combined with retrospective data on tobacco price matched to the age at which the individual started and quit smoking. Split-population hazard models are estimated for both starting and quitting smoking. The analysis suggests price plays a significant role in the decision to start smoking but not in the decision to quit. Further sensitivity analysis of different age groups and an alternative data source, questions the robustness of the significant role of price in the smoking initiation decision. From a policy perspective, the results indicate that increases in tobacco taxation can be an important instrument in reducing the incidence of smoking, but should be combined with other mechanisms such as mandating smoke-free environments and antismoking education. Our results strongly support the targeting of antismoking campaigns towards teenagers.

Cytogenetics of melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancer

Cytogenetic analysis of melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancers has revealed recurrent aberrations, the frequency of which is reflective of malignant potential. Highly aberrant karyotypes are seen in melanoma, squamous cell carcinoma, solar keratosis and Merkel cell carcinoma with more stable karyotypes seen in basal cell carcinoma, keratoacanthoma, Bowen’s disease, dermatofibrosarcomarotuberans and cutaneous lymphomas. Some aberrations were common amongst a number of skin cancer types including rearrangements and numerical abnormalities of chromosome 1, −3p, +3q, partial or entire trisomy 6, trisomy 7, +8q, −9p, +9q, partial or entire loss of chromosome 10, −17p, + 17q and partial or entire gain of chromosome 20. Combination of cytogenetic analysis with other molecular genetic techniques has enabled the identification of not only aberrant chromosomal regions, but also the genes that contribute to a malignant phenotype. This review provides a comprehensive summary of the pertinent cytogenetic aberrations associated with a variety of melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancers.

Mutations in cardiac T-Box Factor gene TBX20 are associated with diverse cardiac pathologies, including defects of septation and valvulogenesis and cardiomyopathy

The T-box family transcription factor gene TBX20 acts in a conserved regulatory network, guiding heart formation and patterning in diverse species. Mouse Tbx20 is expressed in cardiac progenitor cells, differentiating cardiomyocytes, and developing valvular tissue, and its deletion or RNA interference-mediated knockdown is catastrophic for heart development. TBX20 interacts physically, functionally, and genetically with other cardiac transcription factors, including NKX2-5, GATA4, and TBX5, mutations of which cause congenital heart disease (CHD). Here, we report nonsense (Q195X) and missense (I152M) germline mutations within the T-box DNA-binding domain of human TBX20 that were associated with a family history of CHD and a complex spectrum of developmental anomalies, including defects in septation, chamber growth, and valvulogenesis. Biophysical characterization of wild-type and mutant proteins indicated how the missense mutation disrupts the structure and function of the TBX20 T-box. Dilated cardiomyopathy was a feature of the TBX20 mutant phenotype in humans and mice, suggesting that mutations in developmental transcription factors can provide a sensitized template for adult-onset heart disease. Our findings are the first to link TBX20 mutations to human pathology. They provide insights into how mutation of different genes in an interactive regulatory circuit lead to diverse clinical phenotypes, with implications for diagnosis, genetic screening, and patient follow-up.

The role of vascular and hormonal genes in migraine susceptibility

Migraine is a primary headache disorder that involves both genetic and environmental components. Migraine is considered to be a polygenic disorder with a number of susceptibility genes having a minor but nonetheless significant impact on susceptibility. Migraine candidate gene studies have concentrated mainly on genes involved in neurotransmitter pathways, however evidence also exists for a role for alterations in vascular and hormonal function in migraine susceptibility. We present here a mini-review of genetic studies, investigating the potential role of vascular and hormonal gene variants, and discuss how vascular and hormonal dysfunction may impact on migraine susceptibility. We propose that the potential role of vascular and hormonal genes in this disorder warrants further investigation.

Use of an on-line student response system : an analysis of adoption and continuance

The goal of this project was to initiate the use of an internet-based student response system in a large, first year chemistry class at a typical Australian university, and to verify its popularity and utility. A secondary goal was to influence other academic staff to adopt the system, initiating change at the discipline and Faculty level. The first goal was achieved with a high response rate using a commercial on-line system; however, the number of students engaging with the system dropped gradually during each class and over the course of the semester. Factors affecting student and staff adoption and continuance with technology are explored using established models.

An assessment of MMP and TIMP gene expression in cell lines and stroma : tumour differences in microdissected breast cancer biopsies

To examine matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases (TIMP) mRNA levels in archival breast cancer biopsies, we employed microdissection to separate tumour tissue from the surrounding breast tissue, or stroma and RT-PCR to determine gross qualitative and small quantitative differences in the patterns of expression. In this study, a significant correlation (p < 0.05, by Mann-Whitney U analysis) between TIMP-2 expression and lymph node involvement was identified, while MMP-11 and TIMP-1 expression patterning also significantly (p < 0.05) differed between those tumours showing calcification and those that did not. When compared by Spearmans’ ρ correlation analysis, a significant association (p < 0.05, ρ = 0.404) was identified in the pattern of MMP-2 and MMP-9 gene expression. In this study, the use of microdissection and a systematic strategy of RT-PCR analysis have allowed us to investigate localized MMP and MMP inhibitor expression within breast tumours. We have identified patterns of gene expression that may further reveal aspects of breast carcinogenesis, and a robust method for examining changes in clinically important genes using archival biopsies and across stroma-tumour boundaries.

The measurement of adenosine and estrogen receptor expression in rat brains following ovariectomy using quantitative PCR analysis

In our laboratory we have developed a quantitative-polymerase chain reaction (Q-PCR) strategy to examine the differential expression of adenosine receptor (ADOR), A(1), A(2A), A(2B) and A(3), and estrogen receptors (ER) alpha and beta. Brain and uterine mRNA were first used to optimise specific amplification conditions prior to SYBR Green I real time analysis of receptor subtype expression. SYBR Green I provided a convenient and sensitive means of examining specific PCR amplification product in real time, and allowed the generation of standard curves from which relative receptor abundance could be determined. Real time Q-PCR analysis was then performed, to examine changes in receptor expression levels in brains of adult female Wistar rats 3-month post ovariectomy. Comparison with sham-operated age-matched control rats demonstrated both comparative and absolute-copy number changes in receptor levels. Evaluation of both analytical methods investigated 18S rRNA as an internal reference for comparative gene expression analysis in the brain. The results of this study revealed preferential repression of ADORA(2A) (>4-fold down) and consistent (>2-fold) down-regulation of ADORA(1), ADORA(3), and ER-beta, following ovariectomy. No change was found in ADORA(2B) or ER-alpha. Analysis of absolute copy number in this study revealed a correlation between receptor expression in response to ovariectomy, and relative receptor subtype abundance in the brain.

The role of psychological and physiological factors in decision making under risk and in a dilemma

We study the difference in the result of two different risk elicitation methods by linking estimates of risk attitudes to gender, age, personality traits, a decision in a dilemma situation, and physiological states measured by heart rate variability (HRV). Our results indicate that differences between the methods can partly be explained by gender, but not by personality traits. Furthermore, HRV is linked to risktaking in the experiment for at least one of the methods, indicating that more stressed individuals display more risk aversion. Finally, we and that risk attitudes are not predictive of the ability to decide in a dilemma, but personality traits are. Surprisingly, there is also no apparent relationship between the physiological state during the dilemma situation and the ability to make a decision.

Gender and other determinants of trust and reciprocity in an experimental labour market amongst Chinese students

Due to economic and demographic changes highly educated women play an important role on the Chinese labour market. Gender has been shown to be an important characteristic that influences behaviour in economic experiments, as have, to a lesser degree, academic major, age and income. We provide a study looking at trust and reciprocity and their determinants in a labour market laboratory experiment. Our experimental data is based on two games, the Gift Exchange Game (GEG) and a variant of this game (the Wage Promising Game, WPG) where the employer's wage offer is non-binding and the employer can choose the wage freely after observing the workers effort. We and that women are less trusting and reciprocal than men in the GEG while this cannot be found in the WPG. Letting participants play the GEG and the WPG, allows us to disentangle reciprocal and risk attitudes. While in the employer role, it seems to be that risk attitude is the main factor, this is not confirmed analysing decisions in the worker role.

Polymorphic variants of NFKB1 and its inhibitory protein NFKBIA, and their involvement in sporadic breast cancer

Nuclear factor kappa-beta (NF-kappaB) is a transcription factor responsible for modulating the expression of many genes involved in cell proliferation, differentiation, apoptosis and metastasis. NF-kappaB interacts with IkappaB inhibitory proteins to regulate gene expression. This study investigated common variants within the genes coding for NF-kappaB and IkappaB, NFKB1 and NFKBIA, for involvement in sporadic breast cancer. Genotypes were determined in a population of breast cancer affected individuals and age-matched controls. Results do not support an involvement of the tested NFKB1 and NFKBIA polymorphisms in susceptibility to sporadic breast cancer, in the tested Caucasian population.

Modulation of in vitro platelet 5-HT release by species of Erythrina and Cymbopogon

Extracts of Australian plants were screened to detect constituents affecting adenosine di-phosphate (ADP) induced platelet aggregation and [14C]5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT) release. Extracts of four tested plants including, Eremophila gilesii, Erythrina vespertilio, Cymbopogon ambiguus, and Santalum acuminatum, were found to cause significant inhibition of platelet 5-HT release. Inhibition levels ranged from 56-98%, and was not due to the non-specific effects of protein binding tannins. These extracts, and those we have previously identified as being active, were examined further to determine if they affect epinephrine (EPN), arachidonic acid (A.A) or collagen stimulated platelet aggregation and 5-HT release. Among those extracts investigated, we found that both the methanolic extract of E. vespertilio and the dichloromethane (DCM) extract of C. ambiguus were most potent and caused significant inhibition of platelet activation induced by EPN, A.A and to a lesser extent by collagen. Inhibition of ADP induced platelet 5-HT release by both of these extracts, was dose-dependent, with IC50 values for E. vespertilio and C. ambiguus estimated to be 20.4 microl (1.855 mg/ml) and 8.34 microl (0.758 mg/ml), respectively. Overall, C. ambiguus exhibited most activity and also caused dose-dependent inhibition of A.A induced platelet activation. These results indicate that inhibition may occur specifically at a site within the A.A pathway, and suggest the presence of a cyclo-oxygenase inhibitor. Both E. vespertilio and C. ambiguus are reported to be traditional headache treatments, with the present study providing evidence that they affect 5-HT release.

The expression of HAT and HDAC enzymes in asthma airways

Asthma is chronic inflammatory disease of the lower airways that is both, genetically inherited and environmentally influenced. This project investigated how molecular mechanisms known to be influenced both genetically and environmentally, contribute to the onset of asthma.

Predictors of physical and mental health-related quality of life outcomes among myocardial infarction patients

Background Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is an important outcome for patients diagnosed with coronary heart disease. This report describes predictors of physical and mental HRQoL at six months post-hospitalisation for myocardial infarction. Methods Participants were myocardial infarction patients (n=430) admitted to two tertiary referral centres in Brisbane, Australia who completed a six month coronary heart disease secondary prevention trial (ProActive Heart). Outcome variables were HRQoL (Short Form-36) at six months, including a physical and mental summary score. Baseline predictors included demographics and clinical variables, health behaviours, and psychosocial variables. Stepwise forward multiple linear regression analyses were used to identify significant independent predictors of six month HRQoL. Results Physical HRQoL was lower in participants who: were older (p<0.001); were unemployed (p=0.03); had lower baseline physical and mental HRQoL scores (p<0.001); had lower confidence levels in meeting sufficient physical activity recommendations (p<0.001); had no intention to be physically active in the next six months (p<0.001); and were more sedentary (p=0.001). Mental HRQoL was lower in participants who: were younger (p=0.01); had lower baseline mental HRQoL (p<0.001); were more sedentary (p=0.01) were depressed (p<0.001); and had lower social support (p=0.001). Conclusions This study has clinical implications as identification of indicators of lower physical and mental HRQoL outcomes for myocardial infarction patients allows for targeted counselling or coronary heart disease secondary prevention efforts. Trial registration Australian Clinical Trials Registry, Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, CTRN12607000595415. Keywords: Myocardial infarction; Secondary prevention; Cardiac rehabilitation; Telephone-delivered; Health-related quality of life; Health coaching; Tele-health

The mechanics of microdamage and microfracture in trabecular bone

This thesis presents a study using mechanical testing techniques combined with advanced computational methods to examine the mechanics of bone. It contributes novel observations and analysis of how bones fail at the microscopic level, which will be valuable in furthering our understanding and the treatment of bone damage in health and disease, including osteoporosis.