Stratospheric heating by potential geoengineering aerosols

A fixed dynamical heating model is used to investigate the pattern of zonal-mean stratospheric temperature change resulting from geoengineering with aerosols composed of sulfate, titania, limestone and soot. Aerosol always heats the tropical lower stratosphere, but at the poles the response can be either heating, cooling, or neutral. The sign of the change in stratospheric Pole-Equator temperature difference depends on aerosol type, size and season. This has implications for modelling geoengineering impacts and the response of the stratospheric circulation.

The effects of variation in snow properties on passive microwave snow mass estimation

Estimating snow mass at continental scales is difficult, but important for understanding land-atmosphere interactions, biogeochemical cycles and the hydrology of the Northern latitudes. Remote sensing provides the only consistent global observations, butwith unknown errors. Wetest the theoretical performance of the Chang algorithm for estimating snow mass from passive microwave measurements using the Helsinki University of Technology (HUT) snow microwave emission model. The algorithm's dependence upon assumptions of fixed and uniform snow density and grainsize is determined, and measurements of these properties made at the Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) Colorado field site in 2002–2003 used to quantify the retrieval errors caused by differences between the algorithm assumptions and measurements. Deviation from the Chang algorithm snow density and grainsize assumptions gives rise to an error of a factor of between two and three in calculating snow mass. The possibility that the algorithm performsmore accurately over large areas than at points is tested by simulating emission from a 25 km diameter area of snow with a distribution of properties derived from the snow pitmeasurements, using the Chang algorithm to calculate mean snow-mass from the simulated emission. The snowmass estimation froma site exhibiting the heterogeneity of the CLPX Colorado site proves onlymarginally different than that from a similarly-simulated homogeneous site. The estimation accuracy predictions are tested using the CLPX field measurements of snow mass, and simultaneous SSM/I and AMSR-E measurements.

Inferring convective responses to El Niño with atmospheric electricity measurements at Shetland

Pacific ocean temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulate atmospheric convection and hence thunderstorm electrification. The generated current flows globally via the atmospheric electric circuit, which can be monitored anywhere on Earth. Atmospheric electricity measurements made at Shetland (in Scotland) display a mean global circuit response to ENSO that is characterized by strengthening during 'El Niño' conditions, and weakening during 'La Niña' conditions. Examining the hourly varying response indicates that a potential gradient (PG) increase around noon UT is likely to be associated with a change in atmospheric convection and resultant lightning activity over equatorial Africa and Eastern Asia. A secondary increase in PG just after midnight UT can be attributed to more shower clouds in the central Pacific ocean during an 'El Niño'.

A 3D cloud-construction algorithm for the EarthCARE satellite mission

This article presents and assesses an algorithm that constructs 3D distributions of cloud from passive satellite imagery and collocated 2D nadir profiles of cloud properties inferred synergistically from lidar, cloud radar and imager data. It effectively widens the active–passive retrieved cross-section (RXS) of cloud properties, thereby enabling computation of radiative fluxes and radiances that can be compared with measured values in an attempt to perform radiative closure experiments that aim to assess the RXS. For this introductory study, A-train data were used to verify the scene-construction algorithm and only 1D radiative transfer calculations were performed. The construction algorithm fills off-RXS recipient pixels by computing sums of squared differences (a cost function F) between their spectral radiances and those of potential donor pixels/columns on the RXS. Of the RXS pixels with F lower than a certain value, the one with the smallest Euclidean distance to the recipient pixel is designated as the donor, and its retrieved cloud properties and other attributes such as 1D radiative heating rates are consigned to the recipient. It is shown that both the RXS itself and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery can be reconstructed extremely well using just visible and thermal infrared channels. Suitable donors usually lie within 10 km of the recipient. RXSs and their associated radiative heating profiles are reconstructed best for extensive planar clouds and less reliably for broken convective clouds. Domain-average 1D broadband radiative fluxes at the top of theatmosphere(TOA)for (21 km)2 domains constructed from MODIS, CloudSat andCloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) data agree well with coincidental values derived from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) radiances: differences betweenmodelled and measured reflected shortwave fluxes are within±10Wm−2 for∼35% of the several hundred domains constructed for eight orbits. Correspondingly, for outgoing longwave radiation∼65% are within ±10Wm−2.

Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty

Global climate change results from a small yet persistent imbalance between the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the thermal radiation emitted back to space. An apparent inconsistency has been diagnosed between interannual variations in the net radiation imbalance inferred from satellite measurements and upper-ocean heating rate from in situ measurements, and this inconsistency has been interpreted as ‘missing energy’ in the system. Here we present a revised analysis of net radiation at the top of the atmosphere from satellite data, and we estimate ocean heat content, based on three independent sources. We find that the difference between the heat balance at the top of the atmosphere and upper-ocean heat content change is not statistically significant when accounting for observational uncertainties in ocean measurements, given transitions in instrumentation and sampling. Furthermore, variability in Earth’s energy imbalance relating to El Niño-Southern Oscillation is found to be consistent within observational uncertainties among the satellite measurements, a reanalysis model simulation and one of the ocean heat content records. We combine satellite data with ocean measurements to depths of 1,800 m, and show that between January 2001 and December 2010, Earth has been steadily accumulating energy at a rate of 0.50±0.43 Wm−2 (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level). We conclude that energy storage is continuing to increase in the sub-surface ocean.

Microwave-assisted hydrogel synthesis: a new method for crosslinking polymers in aqueous solutions

It has been found that hydrogels may be formed by microwave irradiation of aqueous solutions containing appropriate combinations of polymers. This new method of hydrogel synthesis yields sterile hydrogels without the use of monomers, eliminating the need for the removal of unreacted species from the final product. Results for two particularly successful combinations, poly(vinyl alcohol) with either poly(acrylic acid) or poly(methylvinylether-alt-maleic anhydride), are presented. Irradiation using temperatures of 100–150 °C was found to yield hydrogels with large equilibrium swelling degrees of 500–1000 g g−1. Material leached from both types of hydrogel shows little cytotoxicity towards HT29 cells.

Occupants’ behavioural adaptation in workplaces with non-central heating and cooling systems

Occupants’ behaviour when improving the indoor environment plays a significant role in saving energy in buildings. Therefore the key step to reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions from buildings is to understand how occupants interact with the environment they are exposed to in terms of achieving thermal comfort and well-being; though such interaction is complex. This paper presents a dynamic process of occupant behaviours involving technological, personal and psychological adaptations in response to varied thermal conditions based on the data covering four seasons gathered from the field study in Chongqing, China. It demonstrates that occupants are active players in environmental control and their adaptive responses are driven strongly by ambient thermal stimuli and vary from season to season and from time to time, even on the same day. Positive, dynamic, behavioural adaptation will help save energy used in heating and cooling buildings. However, when environmental parameters cannot fully satisfy occupants’ requirements, negative behaviours could conflict with energy saving. The survey revealed that about 23% of windows are partly open for fresh air when air-conditioners are in operation in summer. This paper addresses the issues how the building and environmental systems should be designed, operated and managed in a way that meets the requirements of energy efficiency without compromising wellbeing and productivity.

Space heating and hot water demand analysis of dwellings connected to district heating scheme in UK

To achieve CO2 emissions reductions the UK Building Regulations require developers of new residential buildings to calculate expected CO2 emissions arising from their energy consumption using a methodology such as Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP 2005) or, more recently SAP 2009. SAP encompasses all domestic heat consumption and a limited proportion of the electricity consumption. However, these calculations are rarely verified with real energy consumption and related CO2 emissions. This paper presents the results of an analysis based on weekly head demand data for more than 200 individual flats. The data is collected from recently built residential development connected to a district heating network. A methodology for separating out the domestic hot water use (DHW) and space heating demand (SH) has been developed and compares measured values to the demand calculated using SAP 2005 and 2009 methodologies. The analysis shows also the variance in DHW and SH consumption between both size of the flats and tenure (privately owned or housing association). Evaluation of the space heating consumption includes also an estimation of the heating degree day (HDD) base temperature for each block of flats and its comparison to the average base temperature calculated using the SAP 2005 methodology.

Dynamic simulation for closed loops in heating systems with decision-making support

Nowadays utilising the proper HVAC system is essential both in extreme weather conditions and dense buildings design. Hydraulic loops are the most common parts in all air conditioning systems. This article aims to investigate the performance of different hydraulic loop arrangements in variable flow systems. Technical, economic and environmental assessments have been considered in this process. A dynamic system simulation is generated to evaluate the system performance and an economic evaluation is conducted by whole life cost assessment. Moreover, environmental impacts have been studied by considering the whole life energy consumption, CO2 emission, the embodied energy and embodied CO2 of the system components. Finally, decision-making in choosing the most suitable hydraulic system among five well-known alternatives has been proposed.

Breakdown of hydrostatic balance at convective scales in the forecast errors in the Met Office Unified Model

For data assimilation in numerical weather prediction, the initial forecast-error covariance matrix Pf is required. For variational assimilation it is particularly important to prescribe an accurate initial matrix Pf, since Pf is either static (in the 3D-Var case) or constant at the beginning of each assimilation window (in the 4D-Var case). At large scales the atmospheric flow is well approximated by hydrostatic balance and this balance is strongly enforced in the initial matrix Pf used in operational variational assimilation systems such as that of the Met Office. However, at convective scales this balance does not necessarily hold any more. Here we examine the extent to which hydrostatic balance is valid in the vertical forecast-error covariances for high-resolution models in order to determine whether there is a need to relax this balance constraint in convective-scale data assimilation. We use the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) and a 1.5 km resolution version of the Unified Model for a case study characterized by the presence of convective activity. An ensemble of high-resolution forecasts valid up to three hours after the onset of convection is produced. We show that at 1.5 km resolution hydrostatic balance does not hold for forecast errors in regions of convection. This indicates that in the presence of convection hydrostatic balance should not be enforced in the covariance matrix used for variational data assimilation at this scale. The results show the need to investigate covariance models that may be better suited for convective-scale data assimilation. Finally, we give a measure of the balance present in the forecast perturbations as a function of the horizontal scale (from 3–90 km) using a set of diagnostics. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Quantitative precipitation estimation over ocean using Bayesian approach from microwave observations during the typhoon season

We have developed a new Bayesian approach to retrieve oceanic rain rate from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), with an emphasis on typhoon cases in the West Pacific. Retrieved rain rates are validated with measurements of rain gauges located on Japanese islands. To demonstrate improvement, retrievals are also compared with those from the TRMM/Precipitation Radar (PR), the Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF), and a multi-channel linear regression statistical method (MLRS). We have found that qualitatively, all methods retrieved similar horizontal distributions in terms of locations of eyes and rain bands of typhoons. Quantitatively, our new Bayesian retrievals have the best linearity and the smallest root mean square (RMS) error against rain gauge data for 16 typhoon overpasses in 2004. The correlation coefficient and RMS of our retrievals are 0.95 and ~2 mm hr-1, respectively. In particular, at heavy rain rates, our Bayesian retrievals outperform those retrieved from GPROF and MLRS. Overall, the new Bayesian approach accurately retrieves surface rain rate for typhoon cases. Accurate rain rate estimates from this method can be assimilated in models to improve forecast and prevent potential damages in Taiwan during typhoon seasons.

Intermittent Escherichia coli O157:H7 colonisation at the terminal rectum mucosa of conventionally-reared lambs

In cattle, the lymphoid rich regions of the rectal-anal mucosa at the terminal rectum are the preferred site for Escherichia coli O157:H7 colonisation. All cattle infected by rectal swab administration demonstrate long-term E. coli O157:H7 colonisation, whereas orally challenged cattle do not demonstrate long-term E. coli O157:H7 colonisation in all animals. Oral, but not rectal challenge of sheep with E. coli O157:H7 has been reported, but an exact site for colonisation in sheep is unknown. To determine if E. coli O157:H7 can effectively colonise the ovine terminal rectum, in vitro organ culture (IVOC) was initiated. Albeit sparsely, large, densely packed E. coli O157:H7 micro-colonies were observed on the mucosa of ovine and control bovine terminal rectum explants. After necropsy of orally inoculated lambs, bacterial enumeration of the proximal and distal gastrointestinal tract did suggest a preference for E. coli O157:H7 colonisation at the ovine terminal rectum, albeit for both lymphoid rich and non-lymphoid sites. As reported for cattle, rectal inoculation studies were then conducted to determine if all lambs would demonstrate persistent colonisation at the terminal rectum. After necropsy of E. coli O157:H7 rectally inoculated lambs, most animals were not colonised at gastrointestinal sites proximal to the rectum, however, large densely packed micro-colonies of E. coli O157:H7 were observed on the ovine terminal rectum mucosa. Nevertheless, at the end point of the study (day 14), only one lamb had E. coli O157:H7 micro-colonies associated with the terminal rectum mucosa. A comparison of E. coli O157:H7 shedding yielded a similar pattern of persistence between rectally and orally inoculated lambs. The inability of E. coli O157:H7 to effectively colonise the terminal rectum mucosa of all rectally inoculated sheep in the long term, suggests that E. coli O157:H7 may colonise this site, but less effectively than reported previously for cattle.

Properties of singular vectors using convective available potential energy as final time norm

We study the feasibility of using the singular vector technique to create initial condition perturbations for short-range ensemble prediction systems (SREPS) focussing on predictability of severe local storms and in particular deep convection. For this a new final time semi-norm based on the convective available potential energy (CAPE) is introduced. We compare singular vectors using the CAPE-norm with SVs using the more common total energy (TE) norm for a 2-week summer period in 2007, which includes a case of mesoscale extreme rainfall in the south west of Finland. The CAPE singular vectors perturb the CAPE field by increasing the specific humidity and temperature of the parcel and increase the lapse rate above the parcel in the lower troposphere consistent with physical considerations. The CAPE-SVs are situated in the lower troposphere. This in contrast to TE-SVs with short optimization times which predominantly remain in the high troposphere. By examining the time evolution of the CAPE singular values we observe that the convective event in the south west of Finland is clearly associated with high CAPE singular values.

Interactions between shallow and deep convection under a finite departure from convective quasi–equilibrium

The present paper presents a simple theory for the transformation of non-precipitating, shallow convection into precipitating, deep convective clouds. In order to make the pertinent point a much idealized system is considered, consisting only of shallow and deep convection without large–scale forcing. The transformation is described by an explicit coupling between these two types of convection. Shallow convection moistens and cools the atmosphere, whereas deep convection dries and warms, leading to destabilization and stabilization respectively. Consequently, in their own stand–alone modes, shallow convection perpetually grows, whereas deep convection simply damps: the former never reaches equilibrium, and the latter is never spontaneously generated. Coupling the modes together is the only way to reconcile these undesirable separate tendencies so that the convective system as a whole can remain in a stable periodic state under this idealized setting. Such coupling is a key missing element in current global atmospheric models. The energy–cycle description as originally formulated by Arakawa and Schubert, and presented herein is suitable for direct implementation into models using a mass–flux parameterization, and would alleviate the current problems with the representation of these two types of convection in numerical models. The present theory also provides a pertinent framework for analyzing large–eddy simulations and cloud–resolving modelling.