Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of climate change and management responses in tropical forests depend on complex frugivore-mediated seed dispersal

AimBiodiversity outcomes under global change will be influenced by a range of ecological processes, and these processes are increasingly being considered in models of biodiversity change. However, the level of model complexity required to adequately account for important ecological processes often remains unclear. Here we assess how considering realistically complex frugivore-mediated seed dispersal influences the projected climate change outcomes for plant diversity in the Australian Wet Tropics (all 4313 species). LocationThe Australian Wet Tropics, Queensland, Australia. MethodsWe applied a metacommunity model (M-SET) to project biodiversity outcomes using seed dispersal models that varied in complexity, combined with alternative climate change scenarios and habitat restoration scenarios. ResultsWe found that the complexity of the dispersal model had a larger effect on projected biodiversity outcomes than did dramatically different climate change scenarios. Applying a simple dispersal model that ignored spatial, temporal and taxonomic variation due to frugivore-mediated seed dispersal underestimated the reduction in the area of occurrence of plant species under climate change and overestimated the loss of diversity in fragmented tropical forest remnants. The complexity of the dispersal model also changed the habitat restoration approach identified as the best for promoting persistence of biodiversity under climate change. Main conclusionsThe consideration of complex processes such as frugivore-mediated seed dispersal can make an important difference in how we understand and respond to the influence of climate change on biodiversity.

Structural crossover from nonmodulated to long-period modulated tetragonal phase and anomalous change in ferroelectric properties in the lead-free piezoelectric Na1/2Bi1/2TiO3-BaTiO3

The highly complex structure-property interrelationship in the lead-free piezoelectric (x) Na1/2Bi1/2TiO3 - (1 - x) BaTiO3 is a subject of considerable contemporary debate. Using comprehensive x-ray, neutron diffraction, dielectric, and ferroelectric studies, we have shown the existence of a new criticality in this system at x = 0.80, i.e., well within the conventional tetragonal phase field. This criticality manifests as a nonmonotonic variation of the tetragonality and coercivity and is shown to be associated with a crossover from a nonmodulated tetragonal phase (for x < 0.8) to a long-period modulated tetragonal phase (for x > 0.80). It is shown that the stabilization of long-period modulation introduces a characteristic depolarization temperature in the system. While differing qualitatively from the two-phase model often suggested for the critical compositions of this system, our results support the view with regard to the tendency in perovskites to stabilize long-period modulated structures as a result of complex interplay of antiferrodistortive modes Bellaiche and Iniguez, Phys. Rev. B 88, 014104 ( 2013); Prosandeev, Wang, Ren, Iniguez, ands Bellaiche, Adv. Funct. Mater. 23, 234 (2013)].

Change in Mesoherbivore Browsing Is Mediated by Elephant and Hillslope Position

Elephant are considered major drivers of ecosystems, but their effects within small-scale landscape features and on other herbivores still remain unclear. Elephant impact on vegetation has been widely studied in areas where elephant have been present for many years. We therefore examined the combined effect of short-term elephant presence (< 4 years) and hillslope position on tree species assemblages, resource availability, browsing intensity and soil properties. Short-term elephant presence did not affect woody species assemblages, but did affect height distribution, with greater sapling densities in elephant access areas. Overall tree and stem densities were also not affected by elephant. By contrast, slope position affected woody species assemblages, but not height distributions and densities. Variation in species assemblages was statistically best explained by levels of total cations, Zinc, sand and clay. Although elephant and mesoherbivore browsing intensities were unaffected by slope position, we found lower mesoherbivore browsing intensity on crests with high elephant browsing intensity. Thus, elephant appear to indirectly facilitate the survival of saplings, via the displacement of mesoherbivores, providing a window of opportunity for saplings to grow into taller trees. In the short-term, effects of elephant can be minor and in the opposite direction of expectation. In addition, such behavioural displacement promotes recruitment of saplings into larger height classes. The interaction between slope position and elephant effect found here is in contrast with other studies, and illustrates the importance of examining ecosystem complexity as a function of variation in species presence and topography. The absence of a direct effect of elephant on vegetation, but the presence of an effect on mesoherbivore browsing, is relevant for conservation areas especially where both herbivore groups are actively managed.

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end-use efficiency, improved land carbon-stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small-scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100EJ: high agreement; 100-300EJ: medium agreement; above 300EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245EJyr(-1) to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large-scale deployment (>200EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2 degrees degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.

Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5A degrees. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960-1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region.

Two-Phase Flow With Phase Change in Porous Channels

Phase change heat transfer in porous media finds applications in various geological flows and modern heat pipes. We present a study to show the effect of phase change on heat transfer in a porous channel. We show that the ratio of Jakob numbers based on wall superheat and inlet fluid subcooling governs the liquid-vapor interface location in the porous channel and below a critical value of the ratio, the liquid penetrates all the way to the extent of the channel in the flow direction. In such cases, the Nusselt number is higher due to the proximity of the liquid-vapor interface to the heat loads. For higher heat loads or lower subcooling of the liquid, the liquid-vapor interface is pushed toward the inlet, and heat transfer occurs through a wider vapor region thus resulting in a lower Nusselt number. This study is relevant in the designing of efficient two-phase heat exchangers such as capillary suction based heat pipes where a prior estimation of the interface location for the maximum heat load is required to ensure that the liquid-vapor interface is always inside the porous block for its operation.

Rational molecular dynamics scheme for predicting optimum concentration loading of nano-additive in phase change materials

The present study deals with the diffusion and phase transition behaviour of paraffin reinforced with carbon nano-additives namely graphene oxide (GO) and surface functionalized single walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT). Bulk disordered systems of paraffin hydrocarbons impregnated with carbon nano-additives have been generated in realistic equilibrium conformations for potential application as latent heat storage systems. Ab initio molecular dynamics(MD) in conjugation with COMPASS forcefield has been implemented using periodic boundary conditions. The proposed scheme allows determination of optimum nano-additive loading for improving thermo-physical properties through analysis of mass, thermal and transport properties; and assists in determination of composite behaviour and related performance from microscopic point of view. It was observed that nanocomposites containing 7.8% surface functionalised SWCNT and 55% GO loading corresponds to best latent heat storage system. The propounded methodology could serve as a by-pass route for economically taxing and iterative experimental procedures required to attain the optimum composition for best performance. The results also hint at the large unexplored potential of ab-initio classical MD techniques for predicting performance of new nanocomposites for potential phase change material applications. (C) 2015 Author(s).

Mechanism of improvement in the strength and volume change behavior of lime stabilized soil

An attempt has been made to bring out the influence on strength and volume change behavior of fabric changes and new cementitious compound formation in a soil upon addition of various lime contents and with curing periods. The effects of changes in fabric of treatment with various lime contents (0, 2,4 and 6%) and with curing periods (0, 7, 14 and 28 days) have been evaluated by one-dimensional consolidation tests, in terms of void ratio changes and compressibility. The strength of soil treated with different lime contents with curing periods up to 28 days, and with the optimum lime content of 6% up to one year has been determined by unconfined compression tests. Comparison of effects of lime on the strength and volume change behavior of the soil brings out that the formation of flocculated fabric and cation exchange significantly reduces the compressibility of soil but marginally increases the strength. Cementation of soil particles and filling with cementitious compounds of the voids of flocculated fabric in the soil marginally reduces the compressibility but significantly increases the strength. Thus, the mechanism of volume change behavior of soil treated with lower lime content at short curing periods is distinctly different from that of the soil treated with optimum lime content at longer curing periods. This is consistent with the increase in the permeability caused by the addition from 2 to 4% lime and the decrease following the addition of 6% lime. Changes consistent with mechanical behavior have been determined by scanning electron microscope, X-ray diffraction and thermal analyses, energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer and pH value in microstructure, mineralogy, chemical composition and alkalinity, respectively. (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Ultrasonic Guided Wave Sensor Network Optimization for Monitoring Rivet Line

Guided waves using piezo-electric wafer active sensors (PWAS) is one of the useful techniques of damage detection. Sensor network optimization with minimal network hardware footprint and maximal area of coverage remains a challenging problem. PWAS sensors are placed at discrete locations in order to inspect damages in plates and the idea has the potential to be extended to assembled structures. Various actuator-sensor configurations are possible within the network in order to identify and locate damages. In this paper we present a correlation based approach to monitor cracks emanating from rivet line using a simulated guided wave signal whose sensor is operating in pulse echo mode. Discussions regarding the identification of phase change due to reflections from the crack are also discussed in this paper.

Volume change behavior of lime treated gypseous soil - influence of mineralogy and microstructure

Series of oedometer tests and micro-analytical studies (XRD, SEM and EDAX) have been carried out to investigate the influence of varying gypsum content on swell, compressibility and permeability of lime treated montmorillonitic soil after curing for different period. Immediate swell is observed on inundation of compacted samples with water and continuously increased with gypsum content. However, changes in swell are found to be marginal with curing. This is attributed to the formation and growth of ettringite crystals by ionic reactions of aluminum calcium-sulfate in the presence of water which is confirmed through detailed micro-analysis. The higher swell in uncured specimens and gradual reduction in swell with increase in curing periods are due to relative dominance of formation and growth of ettringite and cementitious compounds, respectively. Also, the ionic reaction products are found to bear a significant influence on the compressibility and permeability behavior. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Continuum in the X-Z-Y Weak Bonds: Z= Main Group Elements

The Continuum in the variation of the X-Z bond length change from blue-shifting to red-shifting through zero-shifting in the X-Z---Y complex is inevitable. This has been analyzed by ab-initio molecular orbital calculations using Z= Hydrogen, Halogens, Chalcogens, and Pnicogens as prototypical examples. Our analysis revealed that, the competition between negative hyperconjugation within the donor (X-Z) molecule and Charge Transfer (CT) from the acceptor (Y) molecule is the primary reason for the X-Z bond length change. Here, we report that, the proper tuning of X-and Y-group for a particular Z-can change the blue-shifting nature of X-Z bond to zero-shifting and further to red-shifting. This observation led to the proposal of a continuum in the variation of the X-Z bond length during the formation of X-Z---Y complex. The varying number of orbitals and electrons available around the Z-atom differentiates various classes of weak interactions and leads to interactions dramatically different from the H-Bond. Our explanations based on the model of anti-bonding orbitals can be transferred from one class of weak interactions to another. We further take the idea of continuum to the nature of chemical bonding in general. (C) 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.