Prowess, the Nine Worthies and the Hundred Years War: the Prologues to the Chroniques of Jean Froissart and Enguerrand de Monstrelet

An analysis of the evolution of the image of chivalry in the successive redactions of the Prologue to Froissart's Chroniques, focussing on the figures of the Nine Worthies as models of behaviour for young noblemen. This is then compared and contrasted with the prologue written by his continuator, Enguerrand de Monstrelet, whose work betrays a shift in sensibilities that expresses itself, inter alia, by a near-total absence of the Worthies in his Chronique. Close textual analysis suggests that the two choniclers shared a comparable sense of disillusion, though expressed in different ways.

10,000 years in the life of the river Wandle: excavations at the former Vinamul site, Butter Hill, Wallington

Archaeological excavations alongside the river Wandle in Wallington produced evidence of the environmental history and human exploitation of the area. The recovery of a large assemblage of struck flint provided information on the nature of the prehistoric activities represented, while a detailed environmental archaeological programme permitted an examination of both the local sediment successions and thus an opportunity to reconstruct the environmental history of the site. The site revealed a complex sedimentary sequence deposited in riverine conditions, commencing during the early Holocene (from c 10,000 years before present) and continuing through the late Holocene (c last 3000 years). Large flint nodules were washed by the river onto the site where they were procured and worked by Mesolithic and Bronze Age communities. Potentially usable nodules had been tested, and suitable pieces completely reduced, while the majority of useful flakes and blades had been removed for use elsewhere. Small numbers of retouched pieces, such as scrapers and piercers, indicate that domestic activities took place nearby. By the Saxon period the site had begun to stabilise, although it remained marshy and probably peripheral to habitation. Two pits from this period were excavated, one of which contained an antler pick. A small quantity of cereal grain also suggests that cultivated land lay in the vicinity of the site. During the 19th century a mill race was dug across the site, redirecting water from the river Wandle, which resulted in episodic flooding.

Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model

The mechanisms involved in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) decadal variability and predictability over the last 50 years are analysed in the IPSL–CM5A–LR model using historical and initialised simulations. The initialisation procedure only uses nudging towards sea surface temperature anomalies with a physically based restoring coefficient. When compared to two independent AMOC reconstructions, both the historical and nudged ensemble simulations exhibit skill at reproducing AMOC variations from 1977 onwards, and in particular two maxima occurring respectively around 1978 and 1997. We argue that one source of skill is related to the large Mount Agung volcanic eruption starting in 1963, which reset an internal 20-year variability cycle in the North Atlantic in the model. This cycle involves the East Greenland Current intensity, and advection of active tracers along the subpolar gyre, which leads to an AMOC maximum around 15 years after the Mount Agung eruption. The 1997 maximum occurs approximately 20 years after the former one. The nudged simulations better reproduce this second maximum than the historical simulations. This is due to the initialisation of a cooling of the convection sites in the 1980s under the effect of a persistent North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) positive phase, a feature not captured in the historical simulations. Hence we argue that the 20-year cycle excited by the 1963 Mount Agung eruption together with the NAO forcing both contributed to the 1990s AMOC maximum. These results support the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic in the observations. Hindcasts following the CMIP5 protocol are launched from a nudged simulation every 5 years for the 1960–2005 period. They exhibit significant correlation skill score as compared to an independent reconstruction of the AMOC from 4-year lead-time average. This encouraging result is accompanied by increased correlation skills in reproducing the observed 2-m air temperature in the bordering regions of the North Atlantic as compared to non-initialized simulations. To a lesser extent, predicted precipitation tends to correlate with the nudged simulation in the tropical Atlantic. We argue that this skill is due to the initialisation and predictability of the AMOC in the present prediction system. The mechanisms evidenced here support the idea of volcanic eruptions as a pacemaker for internal variability of the AMOC. Together with the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic they propose a novel and complementary explanation for the AMOC variations over the last 50 years.

Humid periods in southern Arabia: windows of opportunity for modern human dispersal.

Arabia is a key area for the dispersal of anatomically modern humans (AMH, Homo sapiens) out of Africa. Given its modern hostile environment, the question of the timing of dispersal is also a question of climatic conditions. Fresh water and food were crucial factors facilitating AMH expansions into Arabia. By dating relict lake deposits, four periods of lake formation were identified: one during the early Holocene and three during the late Pleistocene centered ca. 80, ca. 100, and ca. 125 ka. Favorable environmental conditions during these periods allowed AMH to migrate across southern Arabia. Between ca. 75 and 10.5 ka, arid conditions prevailed and turned southern Arabia into a natural barrier for human dispersal. Thus, expansion of AMH through the southern corridor into Asia must have taken place before 75 ka, possibly in multiple dispersals.

Methodologies for the generation of design summer years for building energy simulation using UKCP09 probabilitic climate projections

Design summer years representing near-extreme hot summers have been used in the United Kingdom for the evaluation of thermal comfort and overheating risk. The years have been selected from measured weather data basically representative of an assumed stationary climate. Recent developments have made available ‘morphed’ equivalents of these years by shifting and stretching the measured variables using change factors produced by the UKCIP02 climate projections. The release of the latest, probabilistic, climate projections of UKCP09 together with the availability of a weather generator that can produce plausible daily or hourly sequences of weather variables has opened up the opportunity for generating new design summer years which can be used in risk-based decision-making. There are many possible methods for the production of design summer years from UKCP09 output: in this article, the original concept of the design summer year is largely retained, but a number of alternative methodologies for generating the years are explored. An alternative, more robust measure of warmth (weighted cooling degree hours) is also employed. It is demonstrated that the UKCP09 weather generator is capable of producing years for the baseline period, which are comparable with those in current use. Four methodologies for the generation of future years are described, and their output related to the future (deterministic) years that are currently available. It is concluded that, in general, years produced from the UKCP09 projections are warmer than those generated previously. Practical applications: The methodologies described in this article will facilitate designers who have access to the output of the UKCP09 weather generator (WG) to generate Design Summer Year hourly files tailored to their needs. The files produced will differ according to the methodology selected, in addition to location, emissions scenario and timeslice.

Benevolence, hegemony and nationalism: fifty years of the 1949 National Parks and Access to the Countryside Act

This paper reviews the National Parks and Access to the Countryside Act 1949 fifty years since its enactment. The Act is assessed in the light of fifty years of access policy and within the present context of political debates and manoeuvres over the ‘right to roam’. It is concluded that benevolence is still the prevailing attitude towards access provision, maintaining as it does the scope for alternative freedoms and opportunities to exploit land for consumptive practices such as leisure and recreation. As such, it is argued that the notion of the gift (Mauss, 1990) continues to dominate the provision of countryside access in England and Wales.

Experiences of learning French: a snapshot at Years 11, 12 and 13

This paper considers the attitudes of students in Years 11, 12 and 13 towards French and, in particular, how they view the reasons behind their level of achievement. It reports findings from a small-scale pilot study, conducted in four schools and colleges, involving 83 students in Year 11, 26 in Year 12 and 14 in Year 13. The findings indicate that French is perceived by many Year 11 students to be difficult and uninteresting. These students, furthermore, do not consider that French is of much benefit in terms of their future career. The data suggest that there is a tendency among students in all three year groups to attribute their lack of success in French to their own low ability and to the difficulty of tasks set, which, it is argued, may affect their levels of motivation in a negative way. Few students in the study have any insight into the importance of learning strategies in overcoming difficulties experienced in language learning. Students' attitudes are then discussed in relation to learning strategy training. It is argued that if learners are encouraged to explore the possibility that their achievement in French may be related to the efficacy of the learning strategies they use, rather than to factors such as low ability or task difficulty, their self-concept, motivation and language learning achievements can be enhanced. A brief outline is given of a planned research project which proposes to address these issues further.

Croig Cave: a late Bronze Age ornament deposition and 3,500 years of coastal foraging in NW Mull, Scotland

Activity within caves provides an important element of the later prehistoric and historic settlement pattern of western Scotland. This contribution reports on a small-scale excavation within Croig Cave, on the coast of north-west Mull, that exposed a 1.95m sequence of midden deposits and cave floors that dated bewteen c 1700 BC and AD 1400. Midden analysis indicated the processing of a .... 950 BC, a penannular copper bracelet a discrete ritual episode within the cycle of otherwise potentially mundane activities. Lead isotope analysis indicates an Irish origin for the copper ore. A piece of iron slag within later midden deposits, dated to c 400 BC, along with high frequencies of wood charcoal, suggest that smithing or smelting may have occurred within the cave. High zinc levels in the historic levels of the midden c AD 1200 might indicate intensive processing of seaweed.

Will greenhouse gas-induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes?

The use of a high resolution atmospheric model at T106 resolution, for studying the influence of greenhouse warming on tropical storm climatology, is investigated. The same method for identifying the storms has been used as in a previous study by Bengtsson et al. The sea surface temperature anomalies have been taken from a previous transient climate change experiment, obtained with a low resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled model. The global distribution of the storms, at the time when the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere had doubled, agrees in geographical position and seasonal variability with that of the present climate, but the number of storms is significantly reduced, particularly at the Southern Hemisphere. The main reason to this, appear to be connected to changes in the large scale circulation, such as a weaker Hadley circulation and stronger upper air westerlies. The low level vorticity in the hurricane genesis regions is generally reduced compared to the present climate, while the vertical tropospheric wind shear is somewhat increased. Most tropical storm regions indicate reduced surface windspeeds and a slightly weaker hydrological cycle.

What happens to precocious readers’ performance by the age of 11 years?

This paper reports on the progress made by a group of fourteen 11-year-old children who had been originally identified as being precocious readers before they started primary school at the age of 5-years. The data enable comparisons to be made with the performance of the children when they were younger so that a six year longitudinal analysis can be made. The children who began school as precocious readers continued to make progress in reading accuracy, rate and comprehension, thereby maintaining their superior performance relative to a comparison group. However, their progress appeared to follow the same developmental trajectory as that of the comparison group. Measures of phonological awareness showed that there are long term, stable individual differences which correlated with all measures of reading. The children who were reading precociously early showed significantly higher levels of phonological awareness than the comparison children. In addition, they showed the same levels of performance on this task as a further group of high achieving young adults. A positive effect of being able to read at precociously early age was identified in the significantly higher levels of receptive vocabulary found amongst the these children. The analyses indicated that rises in receptive vocabulary resulted from reading performance rather than the other way round

Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years

Low variability of crop production from year to year is desirable for many reasons, including reduced income risk and stability of supplies. Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of yield variability, whether it is changing through time, and how it varies between crops and regions. Previous studies have shown that national crop yield variability has changed in the past, with the direction and magnitude dependent on crop type and location. Whilst such studies acknowledge the importance of climate variability in determining yield variability, it has been assumed that its magnitude and its effect on crop production have not changed through time and, hence, that changes to yield variability have been due to non-climatic factors. We address this assumption by jointly examining yield and climate variability for three major crops (rice, wheat and maize) over the past 50 years. National yield time series and growing season temperature and precipitation were de-trended and related using multiple linear regression. Yield variability changed significantly in half of the crop–country combinations examined. For several crop–country combinations, changes in yield variability were related to changes in climate variability.