Reconstruction of the Regional GDP of Portugal, 1890 – 1980

[cat] Aquest article metodològic ofereix estimacions del PIB per càpita regional de les regions portugueses, entre 1890 i 1980. Aquestes estimacions s’han obtingut seguint la metodologia proposada per (Geary and Stark, 2002) per a la industria, i considerant estimacions de producció directa per la resta de sectors.

The determinants of social spending in Spain, 1950-1980, Are dictatorships less redistributive?

[spa] La mayoría de estudios sobre el Estado del Bienestar, hasta el momento, se han centrado en países democráticos y ricos. Sin embargo, los países pobres y no democráticos han recibido mucha menos atención. Este artículo aporta nueva evidencia empírica sobre la evolución del gasto social en España y Portugal entre 1950 y 1980. A partir de ésta se ha podido analizar la relación entre dictaduras y redistribución, ya que ambos países sufrieron gobiernos no democráticos durante la mayor parte del periodo. Además del gasto social público y su clasificación por funciones, en este artículo se analiza también la forma de financiación de dicho gasto social.

Intrinsic ROS-production capacity of nanoparticles

Engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) exhibit special physicochemical properties and thus are finding their way into an increasing number of industries, enabling products with improved properties. Their increased use brings a greater likelihood of exposure to the nanoparticles (NPs) that could be released during the life cycle of nano-abled products. The field of nanotoxicology has emerged as a consequence of the development of these novel materials, and it has gained ever more attention due to the urgent need to gather information on exposure to them and to understand the potential hazards they engender. However, current studies on nanotoxicity tend to focus on pristine ENMs, and they use these toxicity results to generalize risk assessments on human exposure to NPs. ENMs released into the environment can interact with their surroundings, change characteristics and exhibit toxicity effects distinct from those of pristine ENMs. Furthermore, NPs' large surface areas provide extra-large potential interfaces, thus promoting more significant interactions between NPs and other co-existing species. In such processes, other species can attach to a NP's surface and modify its surface functionality, in addition to the toxicity in normally exhibits. One particular occupational health scenario involves NPs and low-volatile organic compounds (LVOC), a common type of pollutant existing around many potential sources of NPs. LVOC can coat a NP's surface and then dominate its toxicity. One important mechanism in nanotoxicology is the creation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) on a NP's surface; LVOC can modify the production of these ROS. In summary, nanotoxicity research should not be limited to the toxicity of pristine NPs, nor use their toxicity to evaluate the health effects of exposure to environmental NPs. Instead, the interactions which NPs have with other environmental species should also be considered and researched. The potential health effects of exposure to NPs should be derived from these real world NPs with characteristics modified by the environment and their distinct toxicity. Failure to suitably address toxicity results could lead to an inappropriate treatment of nano- release, affect the environment and public health and put a blemish on the development of sustainable nanotechnologies as a whole. The main objective of this thesis is to demonstrate a process for coating NP surfaces with LVOC using a well-controlled laboratory design and, with regard to these NPs' capacity to generate ROS, explore the consequences of changing particle toxicity. The dynamic coating system developed yielded stable and replicable coating performance, simulating an important realistic scenario. Clear changes in the size distribution of airborne NPs were observed using a scanning mobility particle sizer, were confirmed using both liquid nanotracking analyses and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) imaging, and were verified thanks to the LVOC coating. Coating thicknesses corresponded to the amount of coating material used and were controlled using the parameters of the LVOC generator. The capacity of pristine silver NPs (Ag NPs) to generate ROS was reduced when they were given a passive coating of inert paraffin: this coating blocked the reactive zones on the particle surfaces. In contrast, a coating of active reduced-anthraquinone contributed to redox reactions and generated ROS itself, despite the fact that ROS generation due to oxidation by Ag NPs themselves was quenched. Further objectives of this thesis included development of ROS methodology and the analysis of ROS case studies. Since the capacity of NPs to create ROS is an important effect in nanotoxicity, we attempted to refine and standardize the use of 2'7-dichlorodihydrofluorescin (DCFH) as a chemical tailored for the characterization of NPs' capacity for ROS generation. Previous studies had reported a wide variety of results, which were due to a number of insufficiently well controlled factors. We therefore cross-compared chemicals and concentrations, explored ways of dispersing NP samples in liquid solutions, identified sources of contradictions in the literature and investigated ways of reducing artificial results. The most robust results were obtained by sonicating an optimal sample of NPs in a DCFH-HRP solution made of 5,M DCFH and 0.5 unit/ml horseradish peroxidase (HRP). Our findings explained how the major reasons for previously conflicting results were the different experimental approaches used and the potential artifacts appearing when using high sample concentrations. Applying our advanced DCFH protocol with other physicochemical characterizations and biological analyses, we conducted several case studies, characterizing aerosols and NP samples. Exposure to aged brake wear dust engenders a risk of potential deleterious health effects in occupational scenarios. We performed microscopy and elemental analyses, as well as ROS measurements, with acellular and cellular DCFH assays. TEM images revealed samples to be heterogeneous mixtures with few particles in the nano-scale. Metallic and non-metallic elements were identified, primarily iron, carbon and oxygen. Moderate amounts of ROS were detected in the cell-free fluorescent tests; however, exposed cells were not dramatically activated. In addition to their highly aged state due to oxidation, the reason aged brake wear samples caused less oxidative stress than fresh brake wear samples may be because of their larger size and thus smaller relative reactive surface area. Other case studies involving welding fumes and differently charged NPs confirmed the performance of our DCFH assay and found ROS generation linked to varying characteristics, especially the surface functionality of the samples. Les nanomatériaux manufacturés (ENM) présentent des propriétés physico-chimiques particulières et ont donc trouvés des applications dans un nombre croissant de secteurs, permettant de réaliser des produits ayant des propriétés améliorées. Leur utilisation accrue engendre un plus grand risque pour les êtres humains d'être exposés à des nanoparticules (NP) qui sont libérées au long de leur cycle de vie. En conséquence, la nanotoxicologie a émergé et gagné de plus en plus d'attention dû à la nécessité de recueillir les renseignements nécessaires sur l'exposition et les risques associés à ces nouveaux matériaux. Cependant, les études actuelles sur la nanotoxicité ont tendance à se concentrer sur les ENM et utiliser ces résultats toxicologiques pour généraliser l'évaluation des risques sur l'exposition humaine aux NP. Les ENM libérés dans l'environnement peuvent interagir avec l'environnement, changeant leurs caractéristiques, et montrer des effets de toxicité distincts par rapport aux ENM originaux. Par ailleurs, la grande surface des NP fournit une grande interface avec l'extérieur, favorisant les interactions entre les NP et les autres espèces présentes. Dans ce processus, d'autres espèces peuvent s'attacher à la surface des NP et modifier leur fonctionnalité de surface ainsi que leur toxicité. Un scénario d'exposition professionnel particulier implique à la fois des NP et des composés organiques peu volatils (LVOC), un type commun de polluant associé à de nombreuses sources de NP. Les LVOC peuvent se déposer sur la surface des NP et donc dominer la toxicité globale de la particule. Un mécanisme important en nanotoxicologie est la création d'espèces réactives d'oxygène (ROS) sur la surface des particules, et les LVOC peuvent modifier cette production de ROS. En résumé, la recherche en nanotoxicité ne devrait pas être limitée à la toxicité des ENM originaux, ni utiliser leur toxicité pour évaluer les effets sur la santé de l'exposition aux NP de l'environnement; mais les interactions que les NP ont avec d'autres espèces environnementales doivent être envisagées et étudiées. Les effets possibles sur la santé de l'exposition aux NP devraient être dérivés de ces NP aux caractéristiques modifiées et à la toxicité distincte. L'utilisation de résultats de toxicité inappropriés peut conduire à une mauvaise prise en charge de l'exposition aux NP, de détériorer l'environnement et la santé publique et d'entraver le développement durable des industries de la nanotechnologie dans leur ensemble. L'objectif principal de cette thèse est de démontrer le processus de déposition des LVOC sur la surface des NP en utilisant un environnement de laboratoire bien contrôlé et d'explorer les conséquences du changement de toxicité des particules sur leur capacité à générer des ROS. Le système de déposition dynamique développé a abouti à des performances de revêtement stables et reproductibles, en simulant des scénarios réalistes importants. Des changements clairs dans la distribution de taille des NP en suspension ont été observés par spectrométrie de mobilité électrique des particules, confirmé à la fois par la méthode dite liquid nanotracking analysis et par microscopie électronique à transmission (MET), et a été vérifié comme provenant du revêtement par LVOC. La correspondance entre l'épaisseur de revêtement et la quantité de matériau de revêtement disponible a été démontré et a pu être contrôlé par les paramètres du générateur de LVOC. La génération de ROS dû aux NP d'argent (Ag NP) a été diminuée par un revêtement passif de paraffine inerte bloquant les zones réactives à la surface des particules. Au contraire, le revêtement actif d'anthraquinone réduit a contribué aux réactions redox et a généré des ROS, même lorsque la production de ROS par oxydation des Ag NP avec l'oxygène a été désactivé. Les objectifs associés comprennent le développement de la méthodologie et des études de cas spécifique aux ROS. Etant donné que la capacité des NP à générer des ROS contribue grandement à la nanotoxicité, nous avons tenté de définir un standard pour l'utilisation de 27- dichlorodihydrofluorescine (DCFH) adapté pour caractériser la génération de ROS par les NP. Des etudes antérieures ont rapporté une grande variété de résultats différents, ce qui était dû à un contrôle insuffisant des plusieurs facteurs. Nous avons donc comparé les produits chimiques et les concentrations utilisés, exploré les moyens de dispersion des échantillons HP en solution liquide, investigué les sources de conflits identifiées dans les littératures et étudié les moyens de réduire les résultats artificiels. De très bon résultats ont été obtenus par sonication d'une quantité optimale d'échantillons de NP en solution dans du DCFH-HRP, fait de 5 nM de DCFH et de 0,5 unité/ml de Peroxydase de raifort (HRP). Notre étude a démontré que les principales raisons causant les conflits entre les études précédemment conduites dans la littérature étaient dues aux différentes approches expérimentales et à des artefacts potentiels dus à des concentrations élevées de NP dans les échantillons. Utilisant notre protocole DCFH avancé avec d'autres caractérisations physico-chimiques et analyses biologiques, nous avons mené plusieurs études de cas, caractérisant les échantillons d'aérosols et les NP. La vielle poussière de frein en particulier présente un risque élevé d'exposition dans les scénarios professionnels, avec des effets potentiels néfastes sur la santé. Nous avons effectué des analyses d'éléments et de microscopie ainsi que la mesure de ROS avec DCFH cellulaire et acellulaire. Les résultats de MET ont révélé que les échantillons se présentent sous la forme de mélanges de particules hétérogènes, desquels une faible proportion se trouve dans l'échelle nano. Des éléments métalliques et non métalliques ont été identifiés, principalement du fer, du carbone et de l'oxygène. Une quantité modérée de ROS a été détectée dans le test fluorescent acellulaire; cependant les cellules exposées n'ont pas été très fortement activées. La raison pour laquelle les échantillons de vielle poussière de frein causent un stress oxydatif inférieur par rapport à la poussière de frein nouvelle peut-être à cause de leur plus grande taille engendrant une surface réactive proportionnellement plus petite, ainsi que leur état d'oxydation avancé diminuant la réactivité. D'autres études de cas sur les fumées de soudage et sur des NP différemment chargées ont confirmé la performance de notre test DCFH et ont trouvé que la génération de ROS est liée à certaines caractéristiques, notamment la fonctionnalité de surface des échantillons.

Childhood adversities as specific contributors to the co-occurrence of posttraumatic stress and alcohol use disorders.

There is much evidence that alcohol use disorders (AUD) often co-occur with posttraumatic stress disorders (PTSD), and that the comorbid condition is associated with a more severe clinical profile than that of PTSD without AUD. However, little is known about the role of childhood adversities as specific risk factors for the development of AUD in individuals presenting with PTSD. The aim of the study was to explore whether specific stressors from the spectrum of trauma and childhood adversities contribute to the development of AUD among subjects with PTSD. From a large community sample, of N=140 individuals with PTSD, N=24 (17.14%) received an additional diagnosis of AUD with an onset after the onset of PTSD. Those with comorbid PTSD/AUD and those with PTSD only were compared regarding type and features of their trauma, childhood adversities and psychiatric comorbidity. Compared to PTSD alone, PTSD/AUD was associated with higher levels of stress in terms of childhood adversities; in particular, sexual abuse below the age of 16, but also with having been brought up in a foster home. PTSD/AUD was also associated with an earlier age of adverse events. Treatment of AUD should include standardized assessments of trauma, especially of trauma experienced during childhood.

Posttraumatic stress avoidance symptoms as mediators in the development of alcohol use disorders after exposure to childhood sexual abuse in a Swiss community sample.

This study examined the role of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms of re-experience, avoidance, and hyperarousal in the relationship between different types of trauma and alcohol use disorders (AUD). We used data from 731 trauma-exposed individuals who participated in the first wave of the PsyCoLaus-study. Trauma characteristics were assessed relatively to the occurrence of lifetime PTSD symptoms and AUD. The results suggest that lifetime and childhood sexual abuse as well as overall childhood trauma were directly linked to AUD and PTSD symptoms, in particular to avoidance symptoms. From single symptom clusters PTSD avoidance was found to specifically mediate the trauma-AUD pathway. Both childhood and sexual trauma strongly contribute to the comorbidity of PTSD and AUD and avoidance-type symptoms appear to play a central role in maintaining this association. Hence, the alleviation of avoidance symptoms might be an important target for therapeutic intervention among victims of sexual abuse before specific addiction treatment is initiated.

Toimittajasuhteiden kehittäminen kuormitusvaihteluiden tasaamiseksi

Työn tavoitteena oli varteenotettavien toimittajayhteistyökumppanien löytäminen pitkäaikaiseen ja vastavuoroiseen yhteistyöhön kuormitusvaihteluiden hallitsemiseksi. Yhteistyökumppania päädyttiin etsimään toimialoilta, joiden suhdannevaihtelut riippuisivat eri tekijöistä kuin massa- ja paperikoneiden valmistus -toimialan suhdannevaihtelut. Yhteistyön mahdollistamiseksi suhdanne- ja kapasiteettivaihteluiden tuli yhteistyökumppaneiden kesken kulkea mahdollisimman vastakkaiseen tahtiin.Toimialoja verrattiin niiden tuotannon bruttoarvon- sekä trendiarvon muutosprosenttien avulla. Mahdollisia yhteistyökumppaniyrityksiä etsittiin neljältä sopivimmalta toimialalta. Parhaiksi todettujen yritysten kanssa keskusteltiin yhteistyöstä ja tutustuttiin yritysten tuotantoihin ja yrityskulttuureihin. Kyseisten yritysten edustajat vierailivat myös Järvenpäässä. Työn lopuksi arvioitiin yhteistyön mahdollisuuksia parhaiksi todettujen yhteistyökumppaneiden ja Järvenpään Metso Paper Oy:n tuotannon komponenttivalmistuksen kanssa. Lisäksi esitettiin ehdotus jatkotoimenpiteistä yhteistyön syventämiseksi.

Discrepancies between clinical needs and helpseeking behaviors in co-occurring posttraumatic stress and alcohol use disorders.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to compare subjects dually diagnosed with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and alcohol use disorder (AUD) to those with only one or none of these conditions regarding helpseeking needs and behaviors. METHOD: Data from a large community sample (N=3694) were used to assess the associations among lifetime PTSD and AUD, other psychiatric disorders, clinical characteristics and lifetime helpseeking behaviors derived from a semi-structured interview. RESULTS: Comorbid individuals had more severe clinical profiles and were more impaired than individuals with either PTSD or AUD alone or those with no/other psychiatric conditions. However, they did not differ in overall helpseeking behavior from any other group. Those with comorbid PTSD/AUD were even less likely than the other groups to seek help for depression and anxiety disorders through specific treatment facilities or the use of prescribed psychotropic drugs. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a greater need for treatment the comorbid group did not seek more help than the others. Their lower use of prescribed drugs supports the self-medication hypothesis, suggesting that those individuals relieve their symptoms through higher alcohol use instead. Our findings underline the need for health care facilities to encourage helpseeking behavior in the aftermath of stressful life events.

Historical trends of organochlorine pesticides in a sediment core from the Gulf of Batabanó, Cuba.

Sediments can be natural archives to reconstruct the history of pollutant inputs into coastal areas. This is important to improve management strategies and evaluate the success of pollution control measurements. In this work, the vertical distribution of organochlorine pesticides (DDTs, Lindane, HCB, Heptachlor, Aldrin and Mirex) was determined in a sediment core collected from the Gulf of Batabanó, Cuba, which was dated by using the (210)Pb dating method and validated with the (239,240)Pu fallout peak. Results showed significant changes in sediment accumulation during the last 40 years: recent mass accumulation rates (0.321 g cm(-2) yr(-1)) double those estimated before 1970 (0.15 g cm(-2) yr(-1)). This change matches closely land use change in the region (intense deforestation and regulation of the Colon River in the late 1970s). Among pesticides, only DDTs isomers, Lindane and HCB were detected, and ranged from 0.029 to 0.374 ng g(-1) dw for DDTs, from<0.006 to 0.05 ng g(-1) dw for Lindane and from<0.04 to 0.134 ng g(-1) dw for HCB. Heptachlor, Aldrin and Mirex were below the detection limits (∼0.003 ng g(-1)), indicating that these compounds had a limited application in the Coloma watershed. Pesticide contamination was evident since the 1970s. DDTs and HCB records showed that management strategies, namely the banning the use of organochlorine contaminants, led to a concentration decline. However, Lindane, which was restricted in 1990, can still be found in the watershed. According to NOAA guidelines, pesticides concentrations encountered in these sediments are low and probably not having an adverse effect on sediment dwelling organisms.

Gas-phase photocatalytic oxidation of volatile organic compounds

Substances emitted into the atmosphere by human activities in urban and industrial areas cause environmental problems such as air quality degradation, respiratory diseases, climate change, global warming, and stratospheric ozone depletion. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are major air pollutants, emitted largely by industry, transportation and households. Many VOCs are toxic, and some are considered to be carcinogenic, mutagenic, or teratogenic. A wide spectrum of VOCs is readily oxidized photocatalytically. Photocatalytic oxidation (PCO) over titanium dioxide may present a potential alternative to air treatment strategies currently in use, such as adsorption and thermal treatment, due to its advantageous activity under ambient conditions, although higher but still mild temperatures may also be applied. The objective of the present research was to disclose routes of chemical reactions, estimate the kinetics and the sensitivity of gas-phase PCO to reaction conditions in respect of air pollutants containing heteroatoms in their molecules. Deactivation of the photocatalyst and restoration of its activity was also taken under consideration to assess the practical possibility of the application of PCO to the treatment of air polluted with VOCs. UV-irradiated titanium dioxide was selected as a photocatalyst for its chemical inertness, non-toxic character and low cost. In the present work Degussa P25 TiO2 photocatalyst was mostly used. In transient studies platinized TiO2 was also studied. The experimental research into PCO of following VOCs was undertaken: - methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) as the basic oxygenated motor fuel additive and, thus, a major non-biodegradable pollutant of groundwater; - tert-butyl alcohol (TBA) as the primary product of MTBE hydrolysis and PCO; - ethyl mercaptan (ethanethiol) as one of the reduced sulphur pungent air pollutants in the pulp-and-paper industry; - methylamine (MA) and dimethylamine (DMA) as the amino compounds often emitted by various industries. The PCO of VOCs was studied using a continuous-flow mode. The PCO of MTBE and TBA was also studied by transient mode, in which carbon dioxide, water, and acetone were identified as the main gas-phase products. The volatile products of thermal catalytic oxidation (TCO) of MTBE included 2-methyl-1-propene (2-MP), carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and water; TBA decomposed to 2-MP and water. Continuous PCO of 4 TBA proceeded faster in humid air than dry air. MTBE oxidation, however, was less sensitive to humidity. The TiO2 catalyst was stable during continuous PCO of MTBE and TBA above 373 K, but gradually lost activity below 373 K; the catalyst could be regenerated by UV irradiation in the absence of gas-phase VOCs. Sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and water were identified as ultimate products of PCO of ethanethiol. Acetic acid was identified as a photocatalytic oxidation by-product. The limits of ethanethiol concentration and temperature, at which the reactor performance was stable for indefinite time, were established. The apparent reaction kinetics appeared to be independent of the reaction temperature within the studied limits, 373 to 453 K. The catalyst was completely and irreversibly deactivated with ethanethiol TCO. Volatile PCO products of MA included ammonia, nitrogen dioxide, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and water. Formamide was observed among DMA PCO products together with others similar to the ones of MA. TCO for both substances resulted in the formation of ammonia, hydrogen cyanide, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and water. No deactivation of the photocatalyst during the multiple long-run experiments was observed at the concentrations and temperatures used in the study. PCO of MA was also studied in the aqueous phase. Maximum efficiency was achieved in an alkaline media, where MA exhibited high fugitivity. Two mechanisms of aqueous PCO – decomposition to formate and ammonia, and oxidation of organic nitrogen directly to nitrite - lead ultimately to carbon dioxide, water, ammonia and nitrate: formate and nitrite were observed as intermediates. A part of the ammonia formed in the reaction was oxidized to nitrite and nitrate. This finding helped in better understanding of the gasphase PCO pathways. The PCO kinetic data for VOCs fitted well to the monomolecular Langmuir- Hinshelwood (L-H) model, whereas TCO kinetic behaviour matched the first order process for volatile amines and the L-H model for others. It should be noted that both LH and the first order equations were only the data fit, not the real description of the reaction kinetics. The dependence of the kinetic constants on temperature was established in the form of an Arrhenius equation.

The Role of Railways in Export-Led Growth: The Case of Uruguay, 1870-1913

The social saving literature has highlighted the indispensable role that railways played before 1914 in several Latin American export-oriented economies, such as Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. The article analyses the case of Uruguay, a country that, by 1914, had built one of the densest railway networks in Latin America. The article shows that, in contrast to what happened in other economies of the region, the resource saving effects of the Uruguayan railways during the first globalisation were tiny due to the small share that railway output accounted for within the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Three complementary reasons are suggested to explain that result, namely: the geographical structure of the country; its sectoral specialisation; and the small scale of the Uruguayan economy. Due to these three characteristics, Uruguay was unable to benefit from railways in the way that other export-oriented Latin American economies did during the first period of globalisation. This conclusion draws attention to the geographic-specific character of railway technology.

Error models in hydrogeology applications

Notre consommation en eau souterraine, en particulier comme eau potable ou pour l'irrigation, a considérablement augmenté au cours des années. De nombreux problèmes font alors leur apparition, allant de la prospection de nouvelles ressources à la remédiation des aquifères pollués. Indépendamment du problème hydrogéologique considéré, le principal défi reste la caractérisation des propriétés du sous-sol. Une approche stochastique est alors nécessaire afin de représenter cette incertitude en considérant de multiples scénarios géologiques et en générant un grand nombre de réalisations géostatistiques. Nous rencontrons alors la principale limitation de ces approches qui est le coût de calcul dû à la simulation des processus d'écoulements complexes pour chacune de ces réalisations. Dans la première partie de la thèse, ce problème est investigué dans le contexte de propagation de l'incertitude, oú un ensemble de réalisations est identifié comme représentant les propriétés du sous-sol. Afin de propager cette incertitude à la quantité d'intérêt tout en limitant le coût de calcul, les méthodes actuelles font appel à des modèles d'écoulement approximés. Cela permet l'identification d'un sous-ensemble de réalisations représentant la variabilité de l'ensemble initial. Le modèle complexe d'écoulement est alors évalué uniquement pour ce sousensemble, et, sur la base de ces réponses complexes, l'inférence est faite. Notre objectif est d'améliorer la performance de cette approche en utilisant toute l'information à disposition. Pour cela, le sous-ensemble de réponses approximées et exactes est utilisé afin de construire un modèle d'erreur, qui sert ensuite à corriger le reste des réponses approximées et prédire la réponse du modèle complexe. Cette méthode permet de maximiser l'utilisation de l'information à disposition sans augmentation perceptible du temps de calcul. La propagation de l'incertitude est alors plus précise et plus robuste. La stratégie explorée dans le premier chapitre consiste à apprendre d'un sous-ensemble de réalisations la relation entre les modèles d'écoulement approximé et complexe. Dans la seconde partie de la thèse, cette méthodologie est formalisée mathématiquement en introduisant un modèle de régression entre les réponses fonctionnelles. Comme ce problème est mal posé, il est nécessaire d'en réduire la dimensionnalité. Dans cette optique, l'innovation du travail présenté provient de l'utilisation de l'analyse en composantes principales fonctionnelles (ACPF), qui non seulement effectue la réduction de dimensionnalités tout en maximisant l'information retenue, mais permet aussi de diagnostiquer la qualité du modèle d'erreur dans cet espace fonctionnel. La méthodologie proposée est appliquée à un problème de pollution par une phase liquide nonaqueuse et les résultats obtenus montrent que le modèle d'erreur permet une forte réduction du temps de calcul tout en estimant correctement l'incertitude. De plus, pour chaque réponse approximée, une prédiction de la réponse complexe est fournie par le modèle d'erreur. Le concept de modèle d'erreur fonctionnel est donc pertinent pour la propagation de l'incertitude, mais aussi pour les problèmes d'inférence bayésienne. Les méthodes de Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov (MCMC) sont les algorithmes les plus communément utilisés afin de générer des réalisations géostatistiques en accord avec les observations. Cependant, ces méthodes souffrent d'un taux d'acceptation très bas pour les problèmes de grande dimensionnalité, résultant en un grand nombre de simulations d'écoulement gaspillées. Une approche en deux temps, le "MCMC en deux étapes", a été introduite afin d'éviter les simulations du modèle complexe inutiles par une évaluation préliminaire de la réalisation. Dans la troisième partie de la thèse, le modèle d'écoulement approximé couplé à un modèle d'erreur sert d'évaluation préliminaire pour le "MCMC en deux étapes". Nous démontrons une augmentation du taux d'acceptation par un facteur de 1.5 à 3 en comparaison avec une implémentation classique de MCMC. Une question reste sans réponse : comment choisir la taille de l'ensemble d'entrainement et comment identifier les réalisations permettant d'optimiser la construction du modèle d'erreur. Cela requiert une stratégie itérative afin que, à chaque nouvelle simulation d'écoulement, le modèle d'erreur soit amélioré en incorporant les nouvelles informations. Ceci est développé dans la quatrième partie de la thèse, oú cette méthodologie est appliquée à un problème d'intrusion saline dans un aquifère côtier. -- Our consumption of groundwater, in particular as drinking water and for irrigation, has considerably increased over the years and groundwater is becoming an increasingly scarce and endangered resource. Nofadays, we are facing many problems ranging from water prospection to sustainable management and remediation of polluted aquifers. Independently of the hydrogeological problem, the main challenge remains dealing with the incomplete knofledge of the underground properties. Stochastic approaches have been developed to represent this uncertainty by considering multiple geological scenarios and generating a large number of realizations. The main limitation of this approach is the computational cost associated with performing complex of simulations in each realization. In the first part of the thesis, we explore this issue in the context of uncertainty propagation, where an ensemble of geostatistical realizations is identified as representative of the subsurface uncertainty. To propagate this lack of knofledge to the quantity of interest (e.g., the concentration of pollutant in extracted water), it is necessary to evaluate the of response of each realization. Due to computational constraints, state-of-the-art methods make use of approximate of simulation, to identify a subset of realizations that represents the variability of the ensemble. The complex and computationally heavy of model is then run for this subset based on which inference is made. Our objective is to increase the performance of this approach by using all of the available information and not solely the subset of exact responses. Two error models are proposed to correct the approximate responses follofing a machine learning approach. For the subset identified by a classical approach (here the distance kernel method) both the approximate and the exact responses are knofn. This information is used to construct an error model and correct the ensemble of approximate responses to predict the "expected" responses of the exact model. The proposed methodology makes use of all the available information without perceptible additional computational costs and leads to an increase in accuracy and robustness of the uncertainty propagation. The strategy explored in the first chapter consists in learning from a subset of realizations the relationship between proxy and exact curves. In the second part of this thesis, the strategy is formalized in a rigorous mathematical framework by defining a regression model between functions. As this problem is ill-posed, it is necessary to reduce its dimensionality. The novelty of the work comes from the use of functional principal component analysis (FPCA), which not only performs the dimensionality reduction while maximizing the retained information, but also allofs a diagnostic of the quality of the error model in the functional space. The proposed methodology is applied to a pollution problem by a non-aqueous phase-liquid. The error model allofs a strong reduction of the computational cost while providing a good estimate of the uncertainty. The individual correction of the proxy response by the error model leads to an excellent prediction of the exact response, opening the door to many applications. The concept of functional error model is useful not only in the context of uncertainty propagation, but also, and maybe even more so, to perform Bayesian inference. Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) algorithms are the most common choice to ensure that the generated realizations are sampled in accordance with the observations. Hofever, this approach suffers from lof acceptance rate in high dimensional problems, resulting in a large number of wasted of simulations. This led to the introduction of two-stage MCMC, where the computational cost is decreased by avoiding unnecessary simulation of the exact of thanks to a preliminary evaluation of the proposal. In the third part of the thesis, a proxy is coupled to an error model to provide an approximate response for the two-stage MCMC set-up. We demonstrate an increase in acceptance rate by a factor three with respect to one-stage MCMC results. An open question remains: hof do we choose the size of the learning set and identify the realizations to optimize the construction of the error model. This requires devising an iterative strategy to construct the error model, such that, as new of simulations are performed, the error model is iteratively improved by incorporating the new information. This is discussed in the fourth part of the thesis, in which we apply this methodology to a problem of saline intrusion in a coastal aquifer.

En respuesta a la ONU : ¿Es el fútbol un indicador del progreso y desarrollo en la esfera internacional?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es corroborar la afirmación de la ONU de que el deporte es una herramienta poderosa para el progreso y el desarrollo. En este contexto, examinamos si el fútbol puede considerarse un indicador de desarrollo a nivel internacional. Un modelo empírico econométrico se diseña con el fin de analizar el desarrollo en términos de PIB per cápita, así como en términos del Índice de Desarrollo Humano. Se utiliza información transversal y temporal. Los resultados sugieren que la clasificación de la FIFA de selecciones nacionales puede ser utilizada para complementar nuestra comprensión del desarrollo multidimensional, en particular, en aquellos países donde la disponibilidad de información no es tan buena como los investigadores desearían.

En respuesta a la ONU : ¿Es el fútbol un indicador del progreso y desarrollo en la esfera internacional?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es corroborar la afirmación de la ONU de que el deporte es una herramienta poderosa para el progreso y el desarrollo. En este contexto, examinamos si el fútbol puede considerarse un indicador de desarrollo a nivel internacional. Un modelo empírico econométrico se diseña con el fin de analizar el desarrollo en términos de PIB per cápita, así como en términos del Índice de Desarrollo Humano. Se utiliza información transversal y temporal. Los resultados sugieren que la clasificación de la FIFA de selecciones nacionales puede ser utilizada para complementar nuestra comprensión del desarrollo multidimensional, en particular, en aquellos países donde la disponibilidad de información no es tan buena como los investigadores desearían.

Childhood adversities as specific contributors to the co-occurrence of posttraumatic stress and alcohol use disorders.

There is much evidence that alcohol use disorders (AUD) often co-occur with posttraumatic stress disorders (PTSD), and that the comorbid condition is associated with a more severe clinical profile than that of PTSD without AUD. However, little is known about the role of childhood adversities as specific risk factors for the development of AUD in individuals presenting with PTSD. The aim of the study was to explore whether specific stressors from the spectrum of trauma and childhood adversities contribute to the development of AUD among subjects with PTSD. From a large community sample, of N=140 individuals with PTSD, N=24 (17.14%) received an additional diagnosis of AUD with an onset after the onset of PTSD. Those with comorbid PTSD/AUD and those with PTSD only were compared regarding type and features of their trauma, childhood adversities and psychiatric comorbidity. Compared to PTSD alone, PTSD/AUD was associated with higher levels of stress in terms of childhood adversities; in particular, sexual abuse below the age of 16, but also with having been brought up in a foster home. PTSD/AUD was also associated with an earlier age of adverse events. Treatment of AUD should include standardized assessments of trauma, especially of trauma experienced during childhood.

Posttraumatic stress avoidance symptoms as mediators in the development of alcohol use disorders after exposure to childhood sexual abuse in a Swiss community sample.

This study examined the role of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms of re-experience, avoidance, and hyperarousal in the relationship between different types of trauma and alcohol use disorders (AUD). We used data from 731 trauma-exposed individuals who participated in the first wave of the PsyCoLaus-study. Trauma characteristics were assessed relatively to the occurrence of lifetime PTSD symptoms and AUD. The results suggest that lifetime and childhood sexual abuse as well as overall childhood trauma were directly linked to AUD and PTSD symptoms, in particular to avoidance symptoms. From single symptom clusters PTSD avoidance was found to specifically mediate the trauma-AUD pathway. Both childhood and sexual trauma strongly contribute to the comorbidity of PTSD and AUD and avoidance-type symptoms appear to play a central role in maintaining this association. Hence, the alleviation of avoidance symptoms might be an important target for therapeutic intervention among victims of sexual abuse before specific addiction treatment is initiated.