Ground-based aerosol optical depth trends at three high-altitude sites in Switzerland and Southern Germany from 1995–2010

Ground-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) climatologies at three high-altitude sites in Switzerland (Jungfraujoch and Davos) and Southern Germany (Hohenpeissenberg) are updated and re-calibrated for the period 1995 – 2010. In addition, AOD time-series are augmented with previously unreported data, and are homogenized for the first time. Trend analysis revealed weak AOD trends (λ = 500 nm) at Jungfraujoch (JFJ; +0.007 decade-1), Davos (DAV; +0.002 decade-1) and Hohenpeissenberg (HPB; -0.011 decade-1) where the JFJ and HPB trends were statistically significant at the 95% and 90% confidence levels. However, a linear trend for the JFJ 1995 – 2005 period was found to be more appropriate than for 1995 – 2010 due to the influence of stratospheric AOD which gave a trend -0.003 decade-1 (significant at 95% level). When correcting for a recently available stratospheric AOD time-series, accounting for Pinatubo (1991) and more recent volcanic eruptions, the 1995 – 2010 AOD trends decreased slightly at DAV and HPB but remained weak at +0.000 decade-1 and -0.013 decade-1 (significant at 95% level). The JFJ 1995 – 2005 AOD time-series similarly decreased to -0.003 decade-1 (significant at 95% level). We conclude that despite a more detailed re40 analysis of these three time-series, which have been extended by five years to the end of 2010, a significant decrease in AOD at these three high-altitude sites has still not been observed.

A global perspective on Langmuir turbulence in the ocean surface boundary layer.

The turbulent mixing in thin ocean surface boundary layers (OSBL), which occupy the upper 100 m or so of the ocean, control the exchange of heat and trace gases between the atmosphere and ocean. Here we show that current parameterizations of this turbulent mixing lead to systematic and substantial errors in the depth of the OSBL in global climate models, which then leads to biases in sea surface temperature. One reason, we argue, is that current parameterizations are missing key surface-wave processes that force Langmuir turbulence that deepens the OSBL more rapidly than steady wind forcing. Scaling arguments are presented to identify two dimensionless parameters that measure the importance of wave forcing against wind forcing, and against buoyancy forcing. A global perspective on the occurrence of waveforced turbulence is developed using re-analysis data to compute these parameters globally. The diagnostic study developed here suggests that turbulent energy available for mixing the OSBL is under-estimated without forcing by surface waves. Wave-forcing and hence Langmuir turbulence could be important over wide areas of the ocean and in all seasons in the Southern Ocean. We conclude that surfacewave- forced Langmuir turbulence is an important process in the OSBL that requires parameterization.

An iterative contractive framework for probe methods: LASSO

We present a new iterative approach called Line Adaptation for the Singular Sources Objective (LASSO) to object or shape reconstruction based on the singular sources method (or probe method) for the reconstruction of scatterers from the far-field pattern of scattered acoustic or electromagnetic waves. The scheme is based on the construction of an indicator function given by the scattered field for incident point sources in its source point from the given far-field patterns for plane waves. The indicator function is then used to drive the contraction of a surface which surrounds the unknown scatterers. A stopping criterion for those parts of the surfaces that touch the unknown scatterers is formulated. A splitting approach for the contracting surfaces is formulated, such that scatterers consisting of several separate components can be reconstructed. Convergence of the scheme is shown, and its feasibility is demonstrated using a numerical study with several examples.

Initialized decadal predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s

In the mid 1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) warmed rapidly, with sea surface temperatures (SST) increasing by 1°C in just a few years. By examining initialized hindcasts made with the UK Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys), it is shown that the warming could have been predicted. Conversely, hindcasts that only consider changes in radiative forcings are not able to capture the rapid warming. Heat budget analysis shows that the success of the DePreSys hindcasts is due to the initialization of anomalously strong northward ocean heat transport. Furthermore, it is found that initializing a strong Atlantic circulation, and in particular a strong Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, is key for successful predictions. Finally, we show that DePreSys is able to predict significant changes in SST and other surface climate variables related to the North Atlantic warming.

Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background

Three prominent quasi-global patterns of variability and change are observed using the Met Office's sea surface temperature (SST) analysis and almost independent night marine air temperature analysis. The first is a global warming signal that is very highly correlated with global mean SST. The second is a decadal to multidecadal fluctuation with some geographical similarity to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and its Pacific-wide manifestation has been termed the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). We present model investigations of the relationship between the IPO and ENSO. The third mode is an interhemispheric variation on multidecadal timescales which, in view of climate model experiments, is likely to be at least partly due to natural variations in the thermohaline circulation. Observed climatic impacts of this mode also appear in model simulations. Smaller-scale, regional atmospheric phenomena also affect climate on decadal to interdecadal timescales. We concentrate on one such mode, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This shows strong decadal to interdecadal variability and a correspondingly strong influence on surface climate variability which is largely additional to the effects of recent regional anthropogenic climate change. The winter NAO is likely influenced by both SST forcing and stratospheric variability. A full understanding of decadal changes in the NAO and European winter climate may require a detailed representation of the stratosphere that is hitherto missing in the major climate models used to study climate change.

Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays during grand solar minima: past and future variations

Galactic cosmic ray flux at Earth is modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field. Heliospheric modulation potential, Φ, during grand solar minima is investigated using an open solar flux (OSF) model with OSF source based on sunspot number, R, and OSF loss on heliospheric current sheet inclination. Changing dominance between source and loss means Φ varies in- (anti-) phase with R during strong (weak) cycles, in agreement with Φ estimates from ice core records of 10Be concentration, which are in-phase during most of the last 300 years, but anti-phase during the Maunder Minimum. Model results suggest “flat” OSF cycles, such as solar cycle 20 result from OSF source and loss terms temporarily balancing throughout the cycle. Thus even if solar activity continues to decline steadily, the long-term drop in OSF through SC21 to SC23 may plateau during SC24, though reemerge in SC25 with the inverted phase relation.

Multispacecraft observation of magnetic cloud erosion by magnetic reconnection during propagation

During propagation, Magnetic Clouds (MC) interact with their environment and, in particular, may reconnect with the solar wind around it, eroding away part of its initial magnetic flux. Here we quantitatively analyze such an interaction using combined, multipoint observations of the same MC flux rope by STEREO A, B, ACE, WIND and THEMIS on November 19–20, 2007. Observation of azimuthal magnetic flux imbalance inside a MC flux rope has been argued to stem from erosion due to magnetic reconnection at its front boundary. The present study adds to such analysis a large set of signatures expected from this erosion process. (1) Comparison of azimuthal flux imbalance for the same MC at widely separated points precludes the crossing of the MC leg as a source of bias in flux imbalance estimates. (2) The use of different methods, associated errors and parametric analyses show that only an unexpectedly large error in MC axis orientation could explain the azimuthal flux imbalance. (3) Reconnection signatures are observed at the MC front at all spacecraft, consistent with an ongoing erosion process. (4) Signatures in suprathermal electrons suggest that the trailing part of the MC has a different large-scale magnetic topology, as expected. The azimuthal magnetic flux erosion estimated at ACE and STEREO A corresponds respectively to 44% and 49% of the inferred initial azimuthal magnetic flux before MC erosion upon propagation. The corresponding average reconnection rate during transit is estimated to be in the range 0.12–0.22 mV/m, suggesting most of the erosion occurs in the inner parts of the heliosphere. Future studies ought to quantify the influence of such an erosion process on geo-effectiveness.

Timing and climatic imprint of Greenland interstadials recorded in stalagmites from Northern Turkey

A 50 kyr-long exceptionally well-dated and highly resolved stalagmite oxygen (δ 18O) and carbon (δ 13C) isotope record from Sofular Cave in northwestern Turkey helps to further improve the dating of Greenland Interstadials (GI) 1, and 3–12. Timing of most GI in the Sofular record is consistent within ±10 to 300 years with the “iconic” Hulu Cave record. Larger divergences (>500 years) between Sofular and Hulu are only observed for GI 4 and 7. The Sofular record differs from the most recent NGRIP chronology by up to several centuries, whereas age offsets do not increase systematically with depth. The Sofular record also reveals a rapid and sensitive climate and ecosystem response in the eastern Mediterranean to GI, whereas a phase lag of ∼100 years between climate and full ecosystem response is evident. Finally, results of spectral analyses of the Sofular isotope records do not support a 1,470-year pacing of GI.

New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions

Early and effective flood warning is essential to initiate timely measures to reduce loss of life and economic damage. The availability of several global ensemble weather prediction systems through the “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble” (TIGGE) archive provides an opportunity to explore new dimensions in early flood forecasting and warning. TIGGE data has been used as meteorological input to the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) for a case study of a flood event in Romania in October 2007. Results illustrate that awareness for this case of flooding could have been raised as early as 8 days before the event and how the subsequent forecasts provide increasing insight into the range of possible flood conditions. This first assessment of one flood event illustrates the potential value of the TIGGE archive and the grand-ensembles approach to raise preparedness and thus to reduce the socio-economic impact of floods.

Pulsatory andesite lava flow at Bagana Volcano

Using a time series of TerraSAR-X spaceborne radar images we have measured the pulsatory motion of an andesite lava flow over a 14-month period at Bagana volcano, Papua New Guinea. Between October 2010 and December 2011, lava flowed continuously down the western flank of the volcano forming a 3 km-long blocky lava flow with a channel, levees, overflows and branches. We captured four successive pulses of lava advancing down the channel system, the first such behaviour of an andesite flow to be recorded using radar. Each pulse had a volume of the order of 107 m3 emplaced over many weeks. The average extrusion rate estimated from the radar data was 0.92 ± 0.35 m3 s-1 , and varied between 0.3 and 1.8 m3 s-1, with higher rates occurring earlier in each pulse. This, together with observations of sulphur dioxide emissions, explosions and incandescence suggest a variable supply rate of magma through Bagana’s conduit as the most likely source of the pulsatory behaviour.

How vegetation impacts affect climate metrics for ozone precursors

We examine the effect of ozone damage to vegetation as caused by anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species and quantify it in terms of its impact on terrestrial carbon stores. A simple climate model is then used to assess the expected changes in global surface temperature from the resulting perturbations to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and ozone. The concept of global temperature change potential (GTP) metric, which relates the global average surface temperature change induced by the pulse emission of a species to that induced by a unit mass of carbon dioxide, is used to characterize the impact of changes in emissions of ozone precursors on surface temperature as a function of time. For NOx emissions, the longer-timescale methane perturbation is of the opposite sign to the perturbations in ozone and carbon dioxide, so NOx emissions are warming in the short term, but cooling in the long term. For volatile organic compound (VOC), CO, and methane emissions, all the terms are warming for an increase in emissions. The GTPs for the 20 year time horizon are strong functions of emission location, with a large component of the variability owing to the different vegetation responses on different continents. At this time horizon, the induced change in the carbon cycle is the largest single contributor to the GTP metric for NOx and VOC emissions. For NOx emissions, we estimate a GTP20 of −9 (cooling) to +24 (warming) depending on assumptions of the sensitivity of vegetation types to ozone damage.

Sensitivity of an Earth system climate model to idealized radiative forcing

We diagnose forcing and climate feedbacks in benchmark sensitivity experiments with the new Met Office Hadley Centre Earth system climate model HadGEM2-ES. To identify the impact of newly-included biogeophysical and chemical processes, results are compared to a parallel set of experiments performed with these processes switched off, and different couplings with the biogeochemistry. In abrupt carbon dioxide quadrupling experiments we find that the inclusion of these processes does not alter the global climate sensitivity of the model. However, when the change in carbon dioxide is uncoupled from the vegetation, or when the model is forced with a non-carbon dioxide forcing – an increase in solar constant – new feedbacks emerge that make the climate system less sensitive to external perturbations. We identify a strong negative dust-vegetation feedback on climate change that is small in standard carbon dioxide sensitivity experiments due to the physiological/fertilization effects of carbon dioxide on plants in this model.

Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution

Understanding the surface O3 response over a “receptor” region to emission changes over a foreign “source” region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O3) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O3 response over east Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA), and south Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O3 precursors, NOx, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surface O3 concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by >10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern United States and Japan. The sum of the O3 responses to NOx, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental-scale “import sensitivity” as the ratio of the O3 response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus “domestic” (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from the three foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O3 response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7–0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the three foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8–1.6 ppb). High O3 values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O3 levels are typically highest and by the weaker relative response of annual incidences of daily maximum 8-h average O3 above 60 ppb to emission reductions in a foreign region (<10–20% of that to domestic) as compared to the annual mean response (up to 50% of that to domestic). Applying the ensemble annual mean results to changes in anthropogenic emissions from 1996 to 2002, we estimate a Northern Hemispheric increase in background surface O3 of about 0.1 ppb a−1, at the low end of the 0.1–0.5 ppb a−1 derived from observations. From an additional simulation in which global atmospheric methane was reduced, we infer that 20% reductions in anthropogenic methane emissions from a foreign source region would yield an O3 response in a receptor region that roughly equals that produced by combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic NOx, NMVOC, and CO emissions from the foreign source region.

The influence of ozone precursor emissions from four world regions on tropospheric composition and radiative climate forcing

Ozone (O3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO42−). We examine changes in the tropospheric composition of O3, CH4, SO42− and global net radiative forcing (RF) for 20% reductions in global CH4 burden and in anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions (NOx, NMVOC, and CO) from four regions (East Asia, Europe and Northern Africa, North America, and South Asia) using the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, assessing uncertainty (mean ± 1 standard deviation) across multiple CTMs. We evaluate steady state O3 responses, including long-term feedbacks via CH4. With a radiative transfer model that includes greenhouse gases and the aerosol direct effect, we find that regional NOx reductions produce global, annually averaged positive net RFs (0.2 ± 0.6 to 1.7 ± 2 mWm−2/Tg N yr−1), with some variation among models. Negative net RFs result from reductions in global CH4 (−162.6 ± 2 mWm−2 for a change from 1760 to 1408 ppbv CH4) and regional NMVOC (−0.4 ± 0.2 to −0.7 ± 0.2 mWm−2/Tg C yr−1) and CO emissions (−0.13 ± 0.02 to −0.15 ± 0.02 mWm−2/Tg CO yr−1). Including the effect of O3 on CO2 uptake by vegetation likely makes these net RFs more negative by −1.9 to −5.2 mWm−2/Tg N yr−1, −0.2 to −0.7 mWm−2/Tg C yr−1, and −0.02 to −0.05 mWm−2/Tg CO yr−1. Net RF impacts reflect the distribution of concentration changes, where RF is affected locally by changes in SO42−, regionally to hemispherically by O3, and globally by CH4. Global annual average SO42− responses to oxidant changes range from 0.4 ± 2.6 to −1.9 ± 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 ± 1.2 to −0.9 ± 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and −0.09 ± 0.5 to −0.9 ± 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP100) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 ± 3.7 without stratospheric O3 or water vapor, 24.2 ± 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (−18.7 ± 25.9 to −1.9 ± 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 ± 1.7 to 8.3 ± 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 ± 0.4 to 1.7 ± 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP100 for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion of O3 precursors in future policies that address air quality and climate change simultaneously. Both global net RF and GWP100 are more sensitive to NOx and NMVOC reductions from South Asia than the other three regions.

Fingerprints of changes in annual and seasonal precipitation from CMIP5 models over land and ocean

By comparing annual and seasonal changes in precipitation over land and ocean since 1950 simulated by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) climate models in which natural and anthropogenic forcings have been included, we find that clear global-scale and regional-scale changes due to human influence are expected to have occurred over both land and ocean. These include moistening over northern high latitude land and ocean throughout all seasons and over the northern subtropical oceans during boreal winter. However we show that this signal of human influence is less distinct when considered over the relatively small area of land for which there are adequate observations to make assessments of multi-decadal scale trends. These results imply that extensive and significant changes in precipitation over the land and ocean may have already happened, even though, inadequacies in observations in some parts of the world make it difficult to identify conclusively such a human fingerprint on the global water cycle. In some regions and seasons, due to aliasing of different kinds of variability as a result of sub sampling by the sparse and changing observational coverage, observed trends appear to have been increased, underscoring the difficulties of interpreting the apparent magnitude of observed changes in precipitation.