Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (B) acidity mass balance critical loads on a sensitive site

This paper reports an uncertainty analysis of critical loads for acid deposition for a site in southern England, using the Steady State Mass Balance Model. The uncertainty bounds, distribution type and correlation structure for each of the 18 input parameters was considered explicitly, and overall uncertainty estimated by Monte Carlo methods. Estimates of deposition uncertainty were made from measured data and an atmospheric dispersion model, and hence the uncertainty in exceedance could also be calculated. The uncertainties of the calculated critical loads were generally much lower than those of the input parameters due to a "compensation of errors" mechanism - coefficients of variation ranged from 13% for CLmaxN to 37% for CL(A). With 1990 deposition, the probability that the critical load was exceeded was > 0.99; to reduce this probability to 0.50, a 63% reduction in deposition is required; to 0.05, an 82% reduction. With 1997 deposition, which was lower than that in 1990, exceedance probabilities declined and uncertainties in exceedance narrowed as deposition uncertainty had less effect. The parameters contributing most to the uncertainty in critical loads were weathering rates, base cation uptake rates, and choice of critical chemical value, indicating possible research priorities. However, the different critical load parameters were to some extent sensitive to different input parameters. The application of such probabilistic results to environmental regulation is discussed.

Water quality and ecology of the River Lee: mass balance and a review of temporal and spatial data

A regional overview of the water quality and ecology of the River Lee catchment is presented. Specifically, data describing the chemical, microbiological and macrobiological water quality and fisheries communities have been analysed, based on a division into river, sewage treatment works, fish-farm, lake and industrial samples. Nutrient enrichment and the highest concentrations of metals and micro-organics were found in the urbanised, lower reaches of the Lee and in the Lee Navigation. Average annual concentrations of metals were generally within environmental quality standards although, oil many occasions, concentrations of cadmium, copper, lead, mercury and zinc were in excess of the standards. Various organic substances (used as herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, chlorination by-products and industrial solvents) were widely detected in the Lee system. Concentrations of ten micro-organic substances were observed in excess of their environmental quality standards, though not in terms of annual averages. Sewage treatment works were the principal point source input of nutrients. metals and micro-organic determinands to the catchment. Diffuse nitrogen sources contributed approximately 60% and 27% of the in-stream load in the upper and lower Lee respectively, whereas approximately 60% and 20% of the in-stream phosphorus load was derived from diffuse sources in the upper and lower Lee. For metals, the most significant source was the urban runoff from North London. In reaches less affected by effluent discharges, diffuse runoff from urban and agricultural areas dominated trends. Flig-h microbiological content, observed in the River Lee particularly in urbanised reaches, was far in excess of the EC Bathing Water Directive standards. Water quality issues and degraded habitat in the lower reaches of the Lee have led to impoverished aquatic fauna but, within the mid-catchment reaches and upper agricultural tributaries, less nutrient enrichment and channel alteration has permitted more diverse aquatic fauna.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of lateral ocean physics in the upper ocean thermal balance of a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

The sensitivity of the upper ocean thermal balance of an ocean-atmosphere coupled GCM to lateral ocean physics is assessed. Three 40-year simulations are performed using horizontal mixing, isopycnal mixing, and isopycnal mixing plus eddy induced advection. The thermal adjustment of the coupled system is quite different between the simulations, confirming the major role of ocean mixing on the heat balance of climate. The initial adjustment phase of the upper ocean (SST) is used to diagnose the physical mechanisms involved in each parametrisation. When the lateral ocean physics is modified, significant changes of SST are seen, mainly in the southern ocean. A heat budget of the annual mixed layer (defined as the “bowl”) shows that these changes are due to a modified heat transfer between the bowl and the ocean interior. This modified heat intake of the ocean interior is directly due to the modified lateral ocean physics. In isopycnal diffusion, this heat exchange, especially marked at mid-latitudes, is both due to an increased effective surface of diffusion and to the sign of the isopycnal gradients of temperature at the base of the bowl. As this gradient is proportional to the isopycnal gradient of salinity, this confirms the strong role of salinity in the thermal balance of the coupled system. The eddy induced advection also leads to increased exchanges between the bowl and the ocean interior. This is both due to the shape of the bowl and again to the existence of a salinity structure. The lateral ocean physics is shown to be a significant contributor to the exchanges between the diabatic and the adiabatic parts of the ocean.

Initial results from Phase 2 of the international urban energy balance model comparison

Urban land surface schemes have been developed to model the distinct features of the urban surface and the associated energy exchange processes. These models have been developed for a range of purposes and make different assumptions related to the inclusion and representation of the relevant processes. Here, the first results of Phase 2 from an international comparison project to evaluate 32 urban land surface schemes are presented. This is the first large-scale systematic evaluation of these models. In four stages, participants were given increasingly detailed information about an urban site for which urban fluxes were directly observed. At each stage, each group returned their models' calculated surface energy balance fluxes. Wide variations are evident in the performance of the models for individual fluxes. No individual model performs best for all fluxes. Providing additional information about the surface generally results in better performance. However, there is clear evidence that poor choice of parameter values can cause a large drop in performance for models that otherwise perform well. As many models do not perform well across all fluxes, there is need for caution in their application, and users should be aware of the implications for applications and decision making.

Alternatives to linear analysis of energy balance data from lactating dairy cows

The current energy requirements system used in the United Kingdom for lactating dairy cows utilizes key parameters such as metabolizable energy intake (MEI) at maintenance (MEm), the efficiency of utilization of MEI for 1) maintenance, 2) milk production (k(l)), 3) growth (k(g)), and the efficiency of utilization of body stores for milk production (k(t)). Traditionally, these have been determined using linear regression methods to analyze energy balance data from calorimetry experiments. Many studies have highlighted a number of concerns over current energy feeding systems particularly in relation to these key parameters, and the linear models used for analyzing. Therefore, a database containing 652 dairy cow observations was assembled from calorimetry studies in the United Kingdom. Five functions for analyzing energy balance data were considered: straight line, two diminishing returns functions, (the Mitscherlich and the rectangular hyperbola), and two sigmoidal functions (the logistic and the Gompertz). Meta-analysis of the data was conducted to estimate k(g) and k(t). Values of 0.83 to 0.86 and 0.66 to 0.69 were obtained for k(g) and k(t) using all the functions (with standard errors of 0.028 and 0.027), respectively, which were considerably different from previous reports of 0.60 to 0.75 for k(g) and 0.82 to 0.84 for k(t). Using the estimated values of k(g) and k(t), the data were corrected to allow for body tissue changes. Based on the definition of k(l) as the derivative of the ratio of milk energy derived from MEI to MEI directed towards milk production, MEm and k(l) were determined. Meta-analysis of the pooled data showed that the average k(l) ranged from 0.50 to 0.58 and MEm ranged between 0.34 and 0.64 MJ/kg of BW0.75 per day. Although the constrained Mitscherlich fitted the data as good as the straight line, more observations at high energy intakes (above 2.4 MJ/kg of BW0.75 per day) are required to determine conclusively whether milk energy is related to MEI linearly or not.

Effect of prolonged intravenous glucose and essential amino acid infusion on nitrogen balance, muscle protein degradation and ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme gene expression in calves

Background: Intravenous infusions of glucose and amino acids increase both nitrogen balance and muscle accretion. We hypothesised that co-infusion of glucose ( to stimulate insulin) and essential amino acids (EAA) would act additively to improve nitrogen balance by decreasing muscle protein degradation in association with alterations in muscle expression of components of the ubiquitin-proteasome proteolytic pathway. Methods: We examined the effect of a 5 day intravenous infusions of saline, glucose, EAA and glucose + EAA, on urinary nitrogen excretion and muscle protein degradation. We carried out the study in 6 restrained calves since ruminants offer the advantage that muscle protein degradation can be assessed by excretion of 3 methyl-histidine and multiple muscle biopsies can be taken from the same animal. On the final day of infusion blood samples were taken for hormone and metabolite measurement and muscle biopsies for expression of ubiquitin, the 14-kDa E2 ubiquitin conjugating enzyme, and proteasome sub-units C2 and C8. Results: On day 5 of glucose infusion, plasma glucose, insulin and IGF-1 concentrations were increased while urea nitrogen excretion and myofibrillar protein degradation was decreased. Co-infusion of glucose + EAA prevented the loss of urinary nitrogen observed with EAA infusions alone and enhanced the increase in plasma IGF-1 concentration but there was no synergistic effect of glucose + EAA on the decrease in myofibrillar protein degradation. Muscle mRNA expression of the ubiquitin conjugating enzyme, 14-kDa E2 and proteasome sub-unit C2 were significantly decreased, after glucose but not amino acid infusions, and there was no further response to the combined infusions of glucose + EAA. Conclusion: Prolonged glucose infusion decreases myofibrillar protein degradation, prevents the excretion of infused EAA, and acts additively with EAA to increase plasma IGF-1 and improve net nitrogen balance. There was no evidence of synergistic effects between glucose + EAA infusion on muscle protein degradation or expression of components of the ubiquitin-proteasome proteolytic pathway.

The influence of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus ssp oleifera var. biennis) cultivar and grass genotype on the competitive balance between crop and grass weeds

Three experiments conducted over two years (2002-04) at the Crops Research Unit, University of Reading, investigated competition between autumn sown oilseed rape cultivars (Brassica napus L. ssp. oleifera var. biennis (DC.) Metzg.) and Lolium multiflorum Lam., L. x boucheanum Kunth and Alopecurus myosuroides Huds., sown as indicative grass weeds. Rape cultivar (cv.) had a substantial effect on grass weed seed return. Over the six cultivars tested, L. multiflorum spikelet production ranged from just under 400 spikelets/m(2) in the presence of cv. Winner to nearly 5800 in competition with cv. Lutin. Cultivar competitiveness was associated with high biomass, large dense floral layers and early stem extension. There was some evidence of differential competitive tolerance between rape cultivars. The results suggested that rape cultivars could be screened for competitiveness by measuring floral layer interception of photosynthetic active radiation. L. x boucheanum cultivars varied in ability to compete with rape. In the absence of inter-specific competition, spikelet density was similar for Aberecho and Polly (circa 31000 spikelets/m(2)) but when grown with rape Polly outyielded Aberecho (i.e. 12 090 and 7990 spikelets/m(2) respectively).

The influence of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus ssp. oleifera var. biennis) cultivar and grass genotype on the competitive balance between crop and grass weeds

Four experiments conducted over three seasons (2002–05) at the Crops Research Unit, University of Reading, investigated effects of canopy management of autumn sown oilseed rape (Brassica napus L. ssp. oleifera var. biennis (DC.) Metzg.) on competition with grass weeds. Emphasis was placed on the effect of the crop on the weeds. Rape canopy size was manipulated using sowing date, seed rate and the application of autumn fertilizer. Lolium multiflorum Lam., L.rboucheanum Kunth and Alopecurus myosuroides Huds. were sown as indicative grass weeds. The effects of sowing date, seed rate and autumn nitrogen on crop competitive ability were correlated with rape biomass and fractional interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) by the rape floral layer, to the extent that by spring there was good evidence of crop: weed replacement. An increase in seed rate up to the highest plant densities tested increased both rape biomass and competitiveness, e.g. in 2002/3, L. multiflorum head density was reduced from 539 to 245 heads/m2 and spikelet density from 13 170 to 5960 spikelets/m2 when rape plant density was increased from 16 to 81 plants/m2. Spikelets/head of Lolium spp. was little affected by rape seed rate, but the length of heads of A. myosuroides was reduced by 9%when plant density was increased from 29–51 plants/m2. Autumn nitrogen increased rape biomass and reduced L. multiflorum head density (415 and 336 heads/m2 without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively) and spikelet density (9990 and 8220 spikelets/m2 without and with autumn nitrogen, respectively). The number of spikelets/head was not significantly affected by autumn nitrogen. Early sowing could increase biomass and competitiveness, but poor crop establishment sometimes overrode the effect. Where crop and weed establishment was similar for both sowing dates, a 2-week delay (i.e. early September to mid-September) increased L. multiflorum head density from 226 to 633 heads/m2 and spikelet density from 5780 to 15 060 spikelets/m2.

The influence of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus ssp oleifera var. biennis) cultivar and grass genotype on the competitive balance between crop and grass weeds

Three experiments conducted over two years (2002-04) at the Crops Research Unit, University of Reading, investigated competition between autumn sown oilseed rape cultivars (Brassica napus L. ssp. oleifera var. biennis (DC.) Metzg.) and Lolium multiflorum Lam., L. x boucheanum Kunth and Alopecurus myosuroides Huds., sown as indicative grass weeds. Rape cultivar (cv.) had a substantial effect on grass weed seed return. Over the six cultivars tested, L. multiflorum spikelet production ranged from just under 400 spikelets/m(2) in the presence of cv. Winner to nearly 5800 in competition with cv. Lutin. Cultivar competitiveness was associated with high biomass, large dense floral layers and early stem extension. There was some evidence of differential competitive tolerance between rape cultivars. The results suggested that rape cultivars could be screened for competitiveness by measuring floral layer interception of photosynthetic active radiation. L. x boucheanum cultivars varied in ability to compete with rape. In the absence of inter-specific competition, spikelet density was similar for Aberecho and Polly (circa 31000 spikelets/m(2)) but when grown with rape Polly outyielded Aberecho (i.e. 12 090 and 7990 spikelets/m(2) respectively).

Bacteria in the gut: friends and foes and how to alter the balance

The activities of the bacteria resident in the colon of companion animals can have an impact upon the health of the host. Our understanding of this microbial ecosystem is presently increasing due to the development of DNA-based microbiological tools that allow identification and enumeration of nonculturable microorganisms. These techniques are changing our view of the bacteria that live in the gut, and they are facilitating dietary-intervention approaches to modulate the colonic ecosystem. This is generally achieved by the feeding of either live bacteria (probiotics) or nondigestible oligosaccharides (prebiotics) that selectively feed the indigenous probiotics. Feeding studies with a Lactobacillus acidophilus probiotic have shown positive effects on carriage of Clostridium spp. in canines and on recovery from Campylobacter spp. infection in felines. Immune function was improved in both species. Prebiotic feeding studies with lactosucrose and fructo-oligosaccharides in both cats and dogs have shown positive effects on the microflora balance. Recently synbiotic forms (a probiotic together with a prebiotic) targeted at canines have been developed that show promise as dietary-intervention tools.

Disruption of sitting balance after stroke: influence of spoken output

Objectives: To identify the extent of dual task interference between cognitive and motor tasks, (cognitive motor interference (CMI)) in sitting balance during recovery from stroke; to compare CMI in sitting balance between stroke and non-stroke groups; and to record any changes to CMI during sitting that correlate with functional recovery. Method: 36 patients from stroke rehabilitation settings in three NHS trusts. Healthy control group: 21 older volunteers. Measures of seated postural sway were taken in unsupported sitting positions, alone, or concurrently with either a repetitive utterance task or an oral word category generation task. Outcome measures were variability of sway area, path length of sway, and the number of valid words generated. Results: Stroke patients were generally less stable than controls during unsupported sitting tasks. They showed greater sway during repetitive speech compared with quiet sitting, but did not show increased instability to posture between repetitive speech and word category generation. When compared with controls, stroke patients experienced greater dual task interferences during repetitive utterance but not during word generation. Sway during repetitive speech was negatively correlated with concurrent function on the Barthel ADL index. Conclusions: The stroke patients showed postural instability and poor word generation skills. The results of this study show that the effort of verbal utterances alone was sufficient to disturb postural control early after stroke, and the extent of this instability correlated with concomitant Barthel ADL function.