Comparison of sample size formulae for 2x2 cross-over designs applied to bioequivalence studies

We consider the comparison of two formulations in terms of average bioequivalence using the 2 × 2 cross-over design. In a bioequivalence study, the primary outcome is a pharmacokinetic measure, such as the area under the plasma concentration by time curve, which is usually assumed to have a lognormal distribution. The criterion typically used for claiming bioequivalence is that the 90% confidence interval for the ratio of the means should lie within the interval (0.80, 1.25), or equivalently the 90% confidence interval for the differences in the means on the natural log scale should be within the interval (-0.2231, 0.2231). We compare the gold standard method for calculation of the sample size based on the non-central t distribution with those based on the central t and normal distributions. In practice, the differences between the various approaches are likely to be small. Further approximations to the power function are sometimes used to simplify the calculations. These approximations should be used with caution, because the sample size required for a desirable level of power might be under- or overestimated compared to the gold standard method. However, in some situations the approximate methods produce very similar sample sizes to the gold standard method. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A breakthrough in lupin biotechnology: prolific protocolonisation in recalcitrant white lupin (Lupinus albus) triggered by bovine serum albumin

Six nutrient formulations were studied for their efficacy in inducing mitosis in white lupin seedling cotyledon protoplasts of which the formulations of Schafer-Menuhr & Sturmer (AS) and Kao (K8p) were found to be superior over the other four when supplemented with 6-benzylaminopurine and alpha-naphthaleneacetic acid (alpha-NAA). An unltrafiltration treatment of K8p increased mitotic frequency by 130% when compared with the untreated control. Medium enrichment with 0.2% bovine serum albumin (BSA) brought about a dramatic 1341% rise in protoplast division in comparison with BSA-free medium but only when the enrichment was carried out in Kao and Michayluk (KM8p) background containing 2, 4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid, alpha-NAA and zeatin. A higher number of protocolonies (each proliferating from single protoplast following multiple divisions) were seen in 0.4% BSA. With this breakthrough in white lupin protoplast research, it is now possible to reproducibly obtain protocolonies that was hitherto not possible.

Bayesian sample size for exploratory clinical trials incorporating historical data

This paper presents a simple Bayesian approach to sample size determination in clinical trials. It is required that the trial should be large enough to ensure that the data collected will provide convincing evidence either that an experimental treatment is better than a control or that it fails to improve upon control by some clinically relevant difference. The method resembles standard frequentist formulations of the problem, and indeed in certain circumstances involving 'non-informative' prior information it leads to identical answers. In particular, unlike many Bayesian approaches to sample size determination, use is made of an alternative hypothesis that an experimental treatment is better than a control treatment by some specified magnitude. The approach is introduced in the context of testing whether a single stream of binary observations are consistent with a given success rate p(0). Next the case of comparing two independent streams of normally distributed responses is considered, first under the assumption that their common variance is known and then for unknown variance. Finally, the more general situation in which a large sample is to be collected and analysed according to the asymptotic properties of the score statistic is explored. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Endocrine disrupters and human health: Could oestrogenic chemicals in body care cosmetics adversely affect breast cancer incidence in women? A review of evidence and call for further research

In the decade that has elapsed since the suggestion that exposure of the foetal/developing male to environmental oestrogens could be the cause of subsequent reproductive and developmental effects in men, there has been little definitive research to provide conclusions to the hypothesis. Issues of exposure and low potency of environmental oestrogens may have reduced concerns. However, the hypothesis that chemicals applied in body care cosmetics (including moisturizers, creams, sprays or lotions applied to axilla or chest or breast areas) may be affecting breast cancer incidence in women presents a different case scenario, not least in the consideration of the exposure issues. The specific cosmetic type is not relevant but the chemical ingredients in the formulations and the application to the skin is important. The most common group of body care cosmetic formulation excipients, namely p-hydroxybenzoic acid esters or parabens, have been shown recently to be oestrogenic in vitro and in vivo and now have been detected in human breast tumour tissue, indicating absorption (route and causal associations have yet to be confirmed). The hypothesis for a link between oestrogenic ingredients in underarm and body care cosmetics and breast cancer is forwarded and reviewed here in terms of. data on exposure to body care cosmetics and parabens, including dermal absorption; paraben oestrogenicity; the role of oestrogen in breast cancer; detection of parabens in breast tumours; recent epidemiology studies of underarm cosmetics use and breast cancer; the toxicology database; the current regulatory status of parabens and regulatory toxicology data uncertainties. Notwithstanding the major public health issue of the causes of the rising incidence of breast cancer in women, this call for further research may provide the first evidence that environmental factors may be adversely affecting human health by endocrine disruption, because exposure to oestrogenic chemicals through application of body care products (unlike diffuse environmental chemical exposures) should be amenable to evaluation, quantification and control. The exposure issues are clear and the exposed population is large, and these factors should provide the necessary impetus to investigate this potential issue of public health. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Optimal foraging when regulating intake of multiple nutrients

There is growing evidence that, rather than maximizing energy intake subject to constraints, many animals attempt to regulate intake of multiple nutrients independently. In the complex diets of animals such as herbivores, the consumption of nutritionally imbalanced foods is sometimes inevitable, forcing trade-offs between eating too much of nutrients present in the foods in relative excess against too little of those in deficit. Such situations are not adequately represented in existing formulations of foraging theory. Here we provide the necessary theory to fit this case, using an approach that combines state-space models of nutrition with Tilman's models of resource exploitation (Tilman 1982, Resource Competition and Community Structure, Princeton: Princeton University Press). Our approach was to construct a smooth fitness landscape over nutrient space, centred on a 'target' intake at which no fitness cost is incurred, and this leads to a natural classification of the simple possible fitness landscapes based on Taylor series approximations of landscape shape. We next examined how needs for multiple nutrients can be assessed experimentally using direct measures of animal performance as the common currency, so that the nutritional strategies of animals can be mapped on to the performance surface, including the position of regulated points of intake and points of nutrient balance when fed suboptimal foods. We surveyed published data and conducted an experiment to map out the performance landscape of a generalist leaf-feeding caterpillar, Spodoptera littoralis. (C) 2004 Tire Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Poblished by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Galactooligosaccharides (GOS) inhibit Vibrio cholerae toxin binding to its GM1 receptor

It is widely reported that cholera toxin (Ctx) remains a significant cause of gastrointestinal disease globally, particularly in developing countries where access to clean drinking water is at a premium. Vaccines are prohibitively expensive and have shown only short-term protection. Consequently, there is scope for continued development of novel treatment strategies. One example is the use of galactooligosaccharides (GOS) as functional mimics for the cell-surface toxin receptor (GM1). In this study, GOS fractions were fractionated using cation exchange chromatography followed by structural characterization using a combination of hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) and electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS) such that their molecular weight profiles were known. Each profile was correlated against biological activity measured using a competitive inhibitory GM1-linked ELISA. GOS fractions containing > 5% hexasaccharides (DP6) exhibited > 90% binding, with EC50 values between 29.27 and 56.04 mg/mL. Inhibition by GOS DP6, was dose dependent, with an EC50 value of 5.10 mg/mL (5.15 mu M MW of 990 Da). In removing low molecular weight carbohydrates that do possess prebiotic, nutraceutical, and/or biological properties and concentrating GOS DP5 and/or DP6, Ctx antiadhesive activity per unit of (dry) weight was improved. This could be advantageous in the manufacture of pharmaceutical or nutraceutical formulations for the treatment or prevention of an acute or chronic disease associated with or caused by the adhesion and/or uptake of a Ctx or HLT.

Volatile compounds produced by the probiotic strain Lactobacillus plantarum NCIMB 8826 in cereal-based substrates

The production of volatile compounds by the probiotic strain, Lactobacillus plantarum NCIMB 8826, in cereal-based media (oat, wheat. barley and malt) was investigated. Sixty compounds, including fatty acids and their esters, amides, alcohols, aldehydes, aromatic hydrocarbons, furans, ketones, peroxides and pyrans, were identified. L. plantarum significantly changed the aroma profile of the four cereal broths. and each substrate showed a specific volatiles profile. Oat and barley media were the substrates more influenced by the fermentation process. The most abundant volatiles detected in oat, wheat, barley and malt were oleic acid, linoleic acid. acetic acid, and 5-hydroxymethylfurfural, respectively. Analysis of these products confirmed the heterofermentative pathway of L plantarum. Maillard compounds were not detected during sterilisation and fermentation. This study is the first to report the volatile composition of probiotic drinks produce with non-supplemented cereal-based media and the results obtained could contribute to the development of new non-dairy probiotic formulations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Functional petit-suisse cheese: measure of the prebiotic effect

Prebiotics and probiotics are increasingly being used to produce potentially synbiotic foods, particularly through dairy products as vehicles. It is well known that both ingredients may offer benefits to improve the host health. This research aimed to evaluate the prebiotic potential of novel petit-suisse cheeses using an in vitro fermentation model. Five petit-suisse cheese formulations combining candidate prebiotics (inulin. oligofructose. hone) and probiotics (Lactobacillus acidophilus, Bifidobacterium lactis) were tested in vitro using, sterile. stirred, batch culture fermentations with human faecal slurry. Measurement of prebiotic effect (MPE) values were generated comparing bacterial changes through determination of maximum growth rates of groups, rate of substrate assimilation and production of lactate and short chain fatty acids. Fastest fermentation and high lactic acid production, promoting increased growth rates of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli. were achieved with addition of prebiotics to a probiotic cheese (made using starter + probiotics). Addition of probiotic strains to control cheese (made using just a starter culture) also resulted in high lactic acid production. Highest MPE values were obtained with addition of prebiotics to a probiotic cheese, followed by addition of prebiotics and/or probiotics to a control cheese. Under the in vitro conditions used, cheese made with the combination of different prebiotics and probiotics resulted in the most promising functional petit-suisse cheese. The study allowed comparison of potentially functional petit-suisse cheeses and screening of preferred synbiotic potential for future market use. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What does a transdiagnostic approach have to offer the treatment of anxiety disorders?

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to review the rationale for 'transdiagnostic' approaches to the understanding and treatment of anxiety disorders. Methods: Databases searches and examination of the reference lists of relevant studies were used to identify papers of relevance. Results: There is increasing recognition that diagnosis-specific interventions for single anxiety-disorders are of less value than might appear since a large proportion of patients have more than one co-existing anxiety disorder and the treatment of one anxiety disorder does not necessarily lead to the resolution of others. As transdiagnostic approaches have the potential to address multiple co-existing anxiety disorders they are potentially more clinically relevant than single anxiety disorder interventions. They may also have advantages in ease of dissemination and in treating anxiety disorder not otherwise specified. Conclusions: The merits of the various transdiagnostic cognitive-behavioral approaches that have been proposed are reviewed. Such approaches have potential benefits, particularly in striking the balance between completely idiosyncratic formulations and diagnosis-driven treatments of anxiety disorders. However, caution is needed to ensure that transdiagnostic theories and treatments benefit from progress made by research on diagnosis-specific treatments, and further empirical work is needed to identify the shared maintaining processes that need to be targeted in the treatment of anxiety disorders.

Coupling aerosol surface and bulk chemistry with a kinetic double layer model (K2-SUB): oxidation of oleic acid by ozone

We present a kinetic double layer model coupling aerosol surface and bulk chemistry (K2-SUB) based on the PRA framework of gas-particle interactions (Poschl-Rudich-Ammann, 2007). K2-SUB is applied to a popular model system of atmospheric heterogeneous chemistry: the interaction of ozone with oleic acid. We show that our modelling approach allows de-convoluting surface and bulk processes, which has been a controversial topic and remains an important challenge for the understanding and description of atmospheric aerosol transformation. In particular, we demonstrate how a detailed treatment of adsorption and reaction at the surface can be coupled to a description of bulk reaction and transport that is consistent with traditional resistor model formulations. From literature data we have derived a consistent set of kinetic parameters that characterise mass transport and chemical reaction of ozone at the surface and in the bulk of oleic acid droplets. Due to the wide range of rate coefficients reported from different experimental studies, the exact proportions between surface and bulk reaction rates remain uncertain. Nevertheless, the model results suggest an important role of chemical reaction in the bulk and an approximate upper limit of similar to 10(-11) cm(2) s(-1) for the surface reaction rate coefficient. Sensitivity studies show that the surface accommodation coefficient of the gas-phase reactant has a strong non-linear influence on both surface and bulk chemical reactions. We suggest that K2-SUB may be used to design, interpret and analyse future experiments for better discrimination between surface and bulk processes in the oleic acid-ozone system as well as in other heterogeneous reaction systems of atmospheric relevance.

Perturbation, extraction and refinement of invariant pairs for matrix polynomials

Generalizing the notion of an eigenvector, invariant subspaces are frequently used in the context of linear eigenvalue problems, leading to conceptually elegant and numerically stable formulations in applications that require the computation of several eigenvalues and/or eigenvectors. Similar benefits can be expected for polynomial eigenvalue problems, for which the concept of an invariant subspace needs to be replaced by the concept of an invariant pair. Little has been known so far about numerical aspects of such invariant pairs. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap. The behavior of invariant pairs under perturbations of the matrix polynomial is studied and a first-order perturbation expansion is given. From a computational point of view, we investigate how to best extract invariant pairs from a linearization of the matrix polynomial. Moreover, we describe efficient refinement procedures directly based on the polynomial formulation. Numerical experiments with matrix polynomials from a number of applications demonstrate the effectiveness of our extraction and refinement procedures.

Condition number estimates for combined potential integral operators in acoustics and their boundary element discretisation

We consider the classical coupled, combined-field integral equation formulations for time-harmonic acoustic scattering by a sound soft bounded obstacle. In recent work, we have proved lower and upper bounds on the $L^2$ condition numbers for these formulations, and also on the norms of the classical acoustic single- and double-layer potential operators. These bounds to some extent make explicit the dependence of condition numbers on the wave number $k$, the geometry of the scatterer, and the coupling parameter. For example, with the usual choice of coupling parameter they show that, while the condition number grows like $k^{1/3}$ as $k\to\infty$, when the scatterer is a circle or sphere, it can grow as fast as $k^{7/5}$ for a class of `trapping' obstacles. In this paper we prove further bounds, sharpening and extending our previous results. In particular we show that there exist trapping obstacles for which the condition numbers grow as fast as $\exp(\gamma k)$, for some $\gamma>0$, as $k\to\infty$ through some sequence. This result depends on exponential localisation bounds on Laplace eigenfunctions in an ellipse that we prove in the appendix. We also clarify the correct choice of coupling parameter in 2D for low $k$. In the second part of the paper we focus on the boundary element discretisation of these operators. We discuss the extent to which the bounds on the continuous operators are also satisfied by their discrete counterparts and, via numerical experiments, we provide supporting evidence for some of the theoretical results, both quantitative and asymptotic, indicating further which of the upper and lower bounds may be sharper.

Novel developments in process optimisation using predictive control

In industrial practice, constrained steady state optimisation and predictive control are separate, albeit closely related functions within the control hierarchy. This paper presents a method which integrates predictive control with on-line optimisation with economic objectives. A receding horizon optimal control problem is formulated using linear state space models. This optimal control problem is very similar to the one presented in many predictive control formulations, but the main difference is that it includes in its formulation a general steady state objective depending on the magnitudes of manipulated and measured output variables. This steady state objective may include the standard quadratic regulatory objective, together with economic objectives which are often linear. Assuming that the system settles to a steady state operating point under receding horizon control, conditions are given for the satisfaction of the necessary optimality conditions of the steady-state optimisation problem. The method is based on adaptive linear state space models, which are obtained by using on-line identification techniques. The use of model adaptation is justified from a theoretical standpoint and its beneficial effects are shown in simulations. The method is tested with simulations of an industrial distillation column and a system of chemical reactors.

Using pH abnormalities in diseased skin to trigger and target topical therapy

Abstract Purpose: The pH discrepancy between healthy and atopic dermatitis skin was identified as a site specific trigger for delivering hydrocortisone from microcapsules. Methods: Using Eudragit L100, a pH-responsive polymer which dissolves at pH 6, hydrocortisone-loaded microparticles were produced by oil-in-oil microencapsulation or spray drying. Release and permeation of hydrocortisone from microparticles alone or in gels was assessed and preliminary stability data was determined. Results: Drug release from microparticles was pH-dependent though the particles produced by spray drying also gave significant non-pH dependent burst release, resulting from their porous nature or from drug enrichment on the surface of these particles. This pH-responsive release was maintained upon incorporation of the oil-in-oil microparticles into Carbopol- and HPMC-based gel formulations. In-vitro studies showed 4 to 5-fold higher drug permeation through porcine skin from the gels at pH 7 compared to pH 5. Conclusions: Permeation studies showed that the oil-in-oil generated particles deliver essentially no drug at normal (intact) skin pH (5.0 – 5.5) but that delivery can be triggered and targeted to atopic dermatitis skin where the pH is elevated. The incorporation of these microparticles into Carbopol- and HPMC-based aqueous gel formulations demonstrated good stability and pH-responsive permeation into porcine skin.

A simplified pricing model for volatility futures

We develop a general model to price VIX futures contracts. The model is adapted to test both the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) and the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross formulations, with and without jumps. Empirical tests on VIX futures prices provide out-of-sample estimates within 2% of the actual futures price for almost all futures maturities. We show that although jumps are present in the data, the models with jumps do not typically outperform the others; in particular, we demonstrate the important benefits of the CEV feature in pricing futures contracts. We conclude by examining errors in the model relative to the VIX characteristics