980 resultados para Forecast models
Resumo:
We consider evolving exponential RGGs in one dimension and characterize the time dependent behavior of some of their topological properties. We consider two evolution models and study one of them detail while providing a summary of the results for the other. In the first model, the inter-nodal gaps evolve according to an exponential AR(1) process that makes the stationary distribution of the node locations exponential. For this model we obtain the one-step conditional connectivity probabilities and extend it to the k-step case. Finite and asymptotic analysis are given. We then obtain the k-step connectivity probability conditioned on the network being disconnected. We also derive the pmf of the first passage time for a connected network to become disconnected. We then describe a random birth-death model where at each instant, the node locations evolve according to an AR(1) process. In addition, a random node is allowed to die while giving birth to a node at another location. We derive properties similar to those above.
Resumo:
Numerical modeling of saturated subsurface flow and transport has been widely used in the past using different numerical schemes such as finite difference and finite element methods. Such modeling often involves discretization of the problem in spatial and temporal scales. The choice of the spatial and temporal scales for a modeling scenario is often not straightforward. For example, a basin-scale saturated flow and transport analysis demands larger spatial and temporal scales than a meso-scale study, which in turn has larger scales compared to a pore-scale study. The choice of spatial-scale is often dictated by the computational capabilities of the modeler as well as the availability of fine-scale data. In this study, we analyze the impact of different spatial scales and scaling procedures on saturated subsurface flow and transport simulations.
Resumo:
Water-rock reactions are driven by the influx of water, which are out of equilibrium with the mineral assemblage in the rock. Here a mass balance approach is adopted to quantify these reactions. Based on field experiments carried out in a granito-gneissic small experimental watershed (SEW), Mule Hole SEW (similar to 4.5 km(2)), quartz, oligoclase, sericite, epidote and chlorite are identified as the basic primary minerals while kaolinite, goethite and smectite are identified as the secondary minerals. Observed groundwater chemistry is used to determine the weathering rates, in terms of `Mass Transfer Coefficients' (MTCs), of both primary and secondary minerals. Weathering rates for primary and secondary minerals are quantified in two steps. In the first step, top red soil is analyzed considering precipitation chemistry as initial phase and water chemistry of seepage flow as final phase. In the second step, minerals present in the saprolite layer are analyzed considering groundwater chemistry as the output phase. Weathering rates thus obtained are converted into weathering fluxes (Q(weathering)) using the recharge quantity. Spatial variability in the mineralogy observed among the thirteen wells of Mule Hole SEW is observed to be reflected in the MTC results and thus in the weathering fluxes. Weathering rates of the minerals in this silicate system varied from few 10 mu mol/L (in case of biotite) to 1000 s of micromoles per liter (calcite). Similarly, fluxes of biotite are observed to be least (7 +/- 5 mol/ha/yr) while those of calcite are highest (1265 791 mol/ha/yr). Further, the fluxes determined annually for all the minerals are observed to be within the bandwidth of the standard deviation of these fluxes. Variations in these annual fluxes are indicating the variations in the precipitation. Hence, the standard deviation indicated the temporal variations in the fluxes, which might be due to the variations in the annual rainfall. Thus, the methodology adopted defines an inverse way of determining weathering fluxes, which mainly contribute to the groundwater concentration. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In this paper, we deal with low-complexity near-optimal detection/equalization in large-dimension multiple-input multiple-output inter-symbol interference (MIMO-ISI) channels using message passing on graphical models. A key contribution in the paper is the demonstration that near-optimal performance in MIMO-ISI channels with large dimensions can be achieved at low complexities through simple yet effective simplifications/approximations, although the graphical models that represent MIMO-ISI channels are fully/densely connected (loopy graphs). These include 1) use of Markov random field (MRF)-based graphical model with pairwise interaction, in conjunction with message damping, and 2) use of factor graph (FG)-based graphical model with Gaussian approximation of interference (GAI). The per-symbol complexities are O(K(2)n(t)(2)) and O(Kn(t)) for the MRF and the FG with GAI approaches, respectively, where K and n(t) denote the number of channel uses per frame, and number of transmit antennas, respectively. These low-complexities are quite attractive for large dimensions, i.e., for large Kn(t). From a performance perspective, these algorithms are even more interesting in large-dimensions since they achieve increasingly closer to optimum detection performance for increasing Kn(t). Also, we show that these message passing algorithms can be used in an iterative manner with local neighborhood search algorithms to improve the reliability/performance of M-QAM symbol detection.
Resumo:
We analyze the AlApana of a Carnatic music piece without the prior knowledge of the singer or the rAga. AlApana is ameans to communicate to the audience, the flavor or the bhAva of the rAga through the permitted notes and its phrases. The input to our analysis is a recording of the vocal AlApana along with the accompanying instrument. The AdhAra shadja(base note) of the singer for that AlApana is estimated through a stochastic model of note frequencies. Based on the shadja, we identify the notes (swaras) used in the AlApana using a semi-continuous GMM. Using the probabilities of each note interval, we recognize swaras of the AlApana. For sampurNa rAgas, we can identify the possible rAga, based on the swaras. We have been able to achieve correct shadja identification, which is crucial to all further steps, in 88.8% of 55 AlApanas. Among them (48 AlApanas of 7 rAgas), we get 91.5% correct swara identification and 62.13% correct R (rAga) accuracy.
Resumo:
This paper presents a novel algorithm for compression of single lead Electrocardiogram (ECG) signals. The method is based on Pole-Zero modelling of the Discrete Cosine Transformed (DCT) signal. An extension is proposed to the well known Steiglitz-Hcbride algorithm, to model the higher frequency components of the input signal more accurately. This is achieved by weighting the error function minimized by the algorithm to estimate the model parameters. The data compression achieved by the parametric model is further enhanced by Differential Pulse Code Modulation (DPCM) of the model parameters. The method accomplishes a compression ratio in the range of 1:20 to 1:40, which far exceeds those achieved by most of the current methods.
Resumo:
In this paper, we propose an approach, using Coloured Petri Nets (CPN) for modelling flexible manufacturing systems. We illustrate our methodology for a Flexible Manufacturing Cell (FMC) with three machines and three robots. We also consider the analysis of the FMC for deadlocks using the invariant analysis of CPNs.
Resumo:
Interactions of major activities involved in airfleet operations, maintenance, and logistics are investigated in the framework of closed queuing networks with finite number of customers. The system is viewed at three levels, namely: operations at the flying-base, maintenance at the repair-depot, and logistics for subsystems and their interactions in achieving the system objectives. Several performance measures (eg, availability of aircraft at the flying-base, mean number of aircraft on ground at different stages of repair, use of repair facilities, and mean time an aircraft spends in various stages of repair) can easily be computed in this framework. At the subsystem level the quantities of interest are the unavailability (probability of stockout) of a spare and the duration of its unavailability. The repair-depot capability is affected by the unavailability of a spare which in turn, adversely affects the availability of aircraft at the flying-base level. Examples illustrate the utility of the proposed models.
Resumo:
A new class of models which are based on adsorption, nucleation growth and their coupling is discussed. In particular, the potentiostatic response of a model that involves nucleative phase growth via direct incorporation and adsorptive discharge of metal ions on the free area is analysed for both instantaneous and progressive nucleation. This model is able to predict certain experimental features in the potentiostatic transient, like the initial fall, shoulder or maximum (as well as minimum) which have not been predicted by models analysed hitherto.Limiting behaviour for short and long times as well as a description of the above-mentioned features in terms of model parameters are given.A special case of the above model, viz. a reversible adsorption–nucleation model, wherein the adsorption is very fast, is shown to give rise to transients which can be distinguished from the pure nucleation-growth transients only by its parametric dependence, but not by the form.