Adaptive model selection using empirical complexities

Given $n$ independent replicates of a jointly distributed pair $(X,Y)\in {\cal R}^d \times {\cal R}$, we wish to select from a fixed sequence of model classes ${\cal F}_1, {\cal F}_2, \ldots$ a deterministic prediction rule $f: {\cal R}^d \to {\cal R}$ whose risk is small. We investigate the possibility of empirically assessingthe {\em complexity} of each model class, that is, the actual difficulty of the estimation problem within each class. The estimated complexities are in turn used to define an adaptive model selection procedure, which is based on complexity penalized empirical risk.The available data are divided into two parts. The first is used to form an empirical cover of each model class, and the second is used to select a candidate rule from each cover based on empirical risk. The covering radii are determined empirically to optimize a tight upper bound on the estimation error. An estimate is chosen from the list of candidates in order to minimize the sum of class complexity and empirical risk. A distinguishing feature of the approach is that the complexity of each model class is assessed empirically, based on the size of its empirical cover.Finite sample performance bounds are established for the estimates, and these bounds are applied to several non-parametric estimation problems. The estimates are shown to achieve a favorable tradeoff between approximation and estimation error, and to perform as well as if the distribution-dependent complexities of the model classes were known beforehand. In addition, it is shown that the estimate can be consistent,and even possess near optimal rates of convergence, when each model class has an infinite VC or pseudo dimension.For regression estimation with squared loss we modify our estimate to achieve a faster rate of convergence.

Body size, activity, employment and wages in Europe: A first approach

This paper examines the associations between obesity, employment status and wages for several European countries. Our results provide weak evidence that obese workers are more likely to be unemployed or tend to be more segregated in self-employment jobs than their non-obese counterparts. We also find difficult to detect statistically significant relationships between obesity and wages. As previously reported in the literature, the association between obesity, unemployment and wages seems to be different for men and women. Moreover, heterogeneity is also found across countries. Such heterogeneity can be somewhat explained by some labor market institutions, such as the collective bargaining coverage and the employer-provided health insurance.

Openness, government size and the terms of trade

This paper investigates the relationship between trade openness and the size of government, both theoretically and empirically. We show that openness can increase the size of governments through two channels: (1) a terms of trade externality, whereby trade lowers the domestic cost of taxation and (2) the demand for insurance, whereby trade raises risk and public transfers. We provide a unified framework for studying and testing these two mechanisms. First, we show how their relative strength depends on a key parameter, the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Second, while the terms of trade externality leads to inefficiently large governments, the increase in public spending due to the demand for insurance is optimal. We show that large volumes of trade may result in welfare losses if the terms of trade externality is strong enough while small volumes of trade are always beneficial. Third, we provide new evidence on the positive association between openness and the size of government and test whether it is consistent with the terms of trade externality or the demand for insurance. Our findings suggest that the positive relationship is remarkably robust and that the terms of trade externality may be the driving force behind it, thus raising warnings that globalization may have led to inefficiently large governments.

Effect of an I.V. bolus of phenylephrine or ephedrine on skin blood flow during spinal anesthesia

Effet d'un bolus intraveineux de phénylephrine ou d'éphedríne sur le flux sanguin cutané lors d'une anesthésie rachidienne Introduction : La phénylephrine et l'éphedrine sont des substances vaso-actives utilisées de routine pour corriger des épisodes d'hypotension artérielle induits par l'anesthésie intrarachidienne. L'influence de ces deux vasopresseurs sur le flux sanguin cutané (FSC) dans ce contexte n'a jusqu'à maintenant pas été décrite. Cette étude évalue l'effet d'une injection intraveineuse de 75 µg de phénylephrine ou de 7.5 mg d'éphedrine sur le FSC mesuré par Laser Doppler, dans les zones concernées parle bloc sympathiqué induit par l'anesthésie intrarachidienne (membres inférieurs) et dans les zones non concernées (membres supérieurs). Méthode :Après acceptation par le Comité d'Éthique, et obtention de leur accord écrit, 20 patients devant subir une intervention chirurgicale élective en décubitus dorsal sous anesthésie. intrarachidienne ont été inclus dans cette étude randomisée en double insu. Le FSC a été mesuré en continu par deux sondes fixées l'une à la cuisse (zone avec bloc sympathique) et l'autre sur l'avantbras (zone sans bloc sympathique). Les valeurs de FSC ont été enregistrées après l'anesthésie rachidienne (valeur contrôle), puis après l'injection i.v. dè phénylephrine (10 patients) ou d'éphedrine (10 patients) pour corriger une hypotension définie comme une chute de 20 mmHg de la pression artérielle systolique. Les variations de FSC exprimées en pourcentage de la valeur contrôle moyenne (+/- écart type) ont été analysées par le test t de Student. Résultats :Les données démographiques des patients et le niveau sensitif induit par l'anesthésie rachidienne sont similaires dans les deux groupes. Aux doses utilisées, seule l'éphedrine restaure la pression artérielle aux valeurs précédant l'anesthésie rachidienne. La phénylephrine augmente le FSC de l'avant-bras de 44% (+/- 79%) et de la cuisse de 34% (+/-24%), alors que l'éphedrine diminue le débit sanguin cutané de l'avant-bras de 16% (+/- 15%) et de la cuisse de 22% (+/-11%). Conclusion : L'injection intraveineuse de phénylephrine et d'éphedrine ont des effets opposés sur le flux sanguin cutané, et cette réponse n'est pas modifiée par le bloc sympathique.. Cette différence peut s'expliquer par la distribution des sous-types de récepteurs adrénergiques alpha et leur prédominance relative dans les veines et les artères de différents diamètres perfusant le tissu sous-cutané et la peau. L'éphedrine, èn raison de sa meilleure efficacité pour traiter les épisodes d'hypotension artérielle après anesthésie intrarachidienne devrait être préféré à la phénylephrine, leurs effets opposés sur le flux sanguin cutané n'étant pas pertinents en pratique clinique. SUMMARY Background: Phenylephrine or ephedrine is routinely used to correct hypotensive episodes fallowing spinal anaesthesia (SA). The influence of these two vasopressors on skin blood flow (SBF) has not yet been described. We have therefore evaluated the effects of an i.v. bolus of 75 µg phenylephrine or 7.5 mg of ephedrine on SBF measured by laser Doppler flowmetry during sympathetic blockade induced by SA. Methods: With Ethical Committee approval and written consent, 20 patients scheduled for elective procedures in supine position under SA were enrolled in this double-blind randomized study. SBF was measured continuously by two probes fixed at the thigh (area with sympathic blockade) and forearm level (area without sympathic blockade) respectively. SBF values were recorded after SA (control values) and then after a bolus administration of phenylephriné (n=10) or ephedrine (n=10) when systolic blood pressure decreased by 20 mmHg. Changes were expressed as percentage of control SBF values and analysed by Student's paired t-test. Results: Patient characteristics and dermatomal sensory levels were similar in both groups. Phenylephrine increases mean SBF at the forearm level by 44% (79%) [mean (SD)j and at the thigh by 34% (24%). Ephedrine decreases SBF at the forearm level by 16% (15%) and at the thigh by 22% (il%). Ephedrine bolus restores arterial blood pressure to pre-anaesthesia values, whereas phenylephrine does not. Conclusion: Administratión of phenylephrine and ephedrine has opposite effects on skin blood flow and sympathetic blockade does not modify this response. These findings could be explained by the distribution of the alpha-adrenoréceptor subtypes and their relative predominance among veins and arteries of different size perfusing the subcutaneous tissue and the skin. Ephedrine, due to its better efficacy to correct hypotensive episodes following SA, should be preferred, to phenylephrine, their opposite effects on SBF being not relevant for clinical practice.

An experimental study of discharge partitioning and flow structure at symmetrical bifurcations

Recent research has examined the factors controlling the geometrical configuration of bifurcations, determined the range of stability conditions for a number of bifurcation types and assessed the impact of perturbations on bifurcation evolution. However, the flow division process and the parameters that influence flow and sediment partitioning are still poorly characterized. To identify and isolate these parameters, three-dimensional velocities were measured at 11 cross-sections in a fixed-walled experimental bifurcation. Water surface gradients were controlled, and systematically varied, using a weir in each distributary. As may be expected, the steepest distributary conveyed the most discharge ( was dominant) while the mildest distributary conveyed the least discharge ( was subordinate). A zone of water surface super-elevation was co-located with the bifurcation in symmetric cases or displaced into the subordinate branch in asymmetric cases. Downstream of a relatively acute-angled bifurcation, primary velocity cores were near to the water surface and against the inner banks, with near-bed zones of lower primary velocity at the outer banks. Downstream of an obtuse-angled bifurcation, velocity cores were initially at the outer banks, with near-bed zones of lower velocities at the inner banks, but patterns soon reverted to match the acute-angled case. A single secondary flow cell was generated in each distributary, with water flowing inwards at the water surface and outwards at the bed. Circulation was relatively enhanced within the subordinate branch, which may help explain why subordinate distributaries remain open, may play a role in determining the size of commonly-observed topographic features, and may thus exert some control on the stability of asymmetric bifurcations. Further, because larger values of circulation result from larger gradient disadvantages, the length of confluence-diffluence units in braided rivers or between diffluences within delta distributary networks may vary depending upon flow structures inherited from upstream and whether, and how, they are fed by dominant or subordinate distributaries. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Financing constraints and fixed-term employment contracts

This paper studies the interactions between financing constraints and theemployment decisions of firms when both fixed-term and permanent employmentcontracts are available. We first develop a dynamic model that shows theeffects of financing constraints and firing costs on employment decisions. Oncecalibrated, the model shows that financially constrained firms tend to use moreintensely fixed term workers, and to make them absorb a larger fraction of thetotal employment volatility than financially unconstrained firms do. We testand confirm the predictions of the model on a unique panel data of Italian manufacturingfirms with detailed information about the type of workers employedby the firms and about firm financing constraints.