An auction theoretical approach to fiscal wars

I examine a situation where a firm chooses to locate a new factory in one of several jurisdictions. The value of the factory may differ among jurisdictions and it depends on the private information held by each jurisdiction. Jurisdictions compete for the location of the new factory. This competition may take the form of expenditures already incurred on infrastructure, commitments to spend on infrastructure, tax incentives or even cash payments. The model combines two elements that are usually considered separately; competition is desirable because we want the factory to be located in the jurisdiction that values it the most, but competition in itself is wasteful. I show that the expected total amount paid to the firm under a large family of arrangements is the same. Moreover, I show that the ex-ante optimal mechanism that is, the mechanism that guarantees that the firm chooses the jurisdiction with the highest value for the factory, minimizes the total expected payment to the firm, and balances the budget in an ex-ante sense - can be implemented by running a standard auction and subsidizing participation.

Long-term survival of women with breast cancer in New South Wales

Several long-term studies of breast cancer survival have shown continued excess mortality from breast cancer up to 20-40 years following treatment. The purpose of this report was to investigate temporal trends in long-term survival from breast cancer in all New South Wales (NSW) women. Breast cancer cases incident in 1972-1996 (54,228) were derived from the NSW Central Cancer Registry a population-based registry which began in 1972. All cases of breast cancer not known to be dead were matched against death records. The expected survival for NSW women was derived from published annual life tables. Relative survival analysis compared the survival of cancer cases with the age, sex and period matched mortality of the total population. Cases were considered alive at the end of 1996, except when known to be dead. Proportional hazards regression was employed to model survival on age, period and degree of spread at diagnosis. Survival at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years of follow-up was 76 per cent, 65 per cent, 60 per cent, 57 per cent and 56 per cent. The annual hazard rate for excess mortality was 4.3 per cent in year 1, maximal at 6.5 per cent in year 3, declining to 4.7 per cent in year 5, 2.7 per cent in year 10, 1.4 per cent in year 15, 1.0 per cent for years 16-20, and 0.4 per cent for years 20-25 of follow-up. Relative survival was highest in 40-49 year-olds. Cases diagnosed most recently (1992-1996) had the highest survival, compared with cases diagnosed in previous periods. Five-year survival improved over time, especially from the late 1980s for women in the screening age group (50-69 years). Survival was highest for those with localised cancer at diagnosis: 88.4 per cent, 79.1 per cent, 74.6 per cent, 72.7 per cent and 72.8 per cent at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years follow-up (excluding those aged greater than or equal to 70 years). There was no significant difference between the survival of the breast cancer cases and the general population at 20-25 years follow-up. Degree of spread was less predictive of survival 5-20 years after diagnosis, compared with 0-5 years after diagnosis, and was not significant at 20-25 years of follow-up. Relative survival from breast cancer in NSW women continues to decrease to 25 years after diagnosis, but there is little excess mortality after 15 years follow-up, especially for those with localised cancer at diagnosis, and the minimal excess mortality at 20-25 years of follow-up is not statistically significant. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity: bridging the gap between condition and conservation

The aim of this study is to create a two-tiered assessment combining restoration and conservation, both needed for biodiversity management. The first tier of this approach assesses the condition of a site using a standard bioassessment method, AUSRIVAS, to determine whether significant loss of biodiversity has occurred because of human activity. The second tier assesses the conservation value of sites that were determined to be unimpacted in the first step against a reference database. This ensures maximum complementarity without having to set a priori target areas. Using the reference database, we assign site-specific and comparable coefficients for both restoration (Observed/Expected taxa with > 50% probability of occurrence) and conservation values (O/E taxa with < 50%, rare taxa). In a trial on 75 sites on rivers around Sydney, NSW, Australia we were able to identify three regions: (1) an area that may need restoration; (2) an area that had a high conservation value and; (3) a region that was identified as having significant biodiversity loss but with high potential to respond to rehabilitation and become a biodiversity hotspot. These examples highlight the use of the new framework as a comprehensive system for biodiversity assessment.

Ten-year survival after first-ever stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Very few studies have provided information regarding long-term prognosis after stroke. We aimed to determine the absolute and relative survival over 10 years among patients with first-ever stroke from a population-based study in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-For a 12-month period beginning February 1989, all individuals with a suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack who were resident in a geographically defined and representative region of Perth, Western Australia, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria. Patients with a definite first-ever stroke were followed up prospectively at 4 months, 12 months, 5 years, and 10 years after the index event. Results-A total of 251 patients with first-ever stroke were registered, and 244 (97%) were followed up at 10 years, by which time 197 (79%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 74 to 84) had died. The major causes of death were the direct effects of the initial stroke (27%; 95% CI, 21 to 33) and cardiovascular disease (26%; 95% CI, 20 to 32). Among 1-year survivors of stroke, the average annual case fatality was 4.8%, which was 2.3 (95% CI, 1.9 to 2.7) times greater than for the general population of the same age and sex. Conclusions-One in 5 patients with first-ever stroke survived to 10 years. The average annual case fatality was 4.8% between years 1 and 10 after stroke, which was twice that expected for the general population. Vascular disease is the major cause of death among long-term survivors of stroke.

Choking deaths: the role of antipsychotic medication

Background An increased risk of choking associated with antipsychotic medication has been repeatedly postulated. Aims To examine this association in a large number of cases of choking deaths. Method Cases of individuals who had died because of choking were linked with a case register recording contacts with public mental health services. The actual and expected rates of psychiatric disorder and the presence of psychotropic medication in post-mortem blood samples were compared. Results The 70 people who had choked to death were over 20 times more likely to have been treated previously for schizophrenia. They were also more likely to have had a prior organic psychiatric syndrome. The risk for those receiving thioridazine or lithium was. respectively, 92 times and 30 times greater than expected. Other antipsychotic and psychotropic drugs were not over-represented. Conclusions The increased risk of death in people with schizophrenia may be a combination of inherent predispositions and the use of specific antipsychotic drugs. The increased risk of choking in those with organic psychiatric syndromes is consistent with the consequences of compromised neurological competence. Declaration of interest None.

Innate immune surveillance of spontaneous B cell lymphomas by natural killer cells and gamma delta T cells

Few studies have demonstrated that innate lymphocytes play a major role in preventing spontaneous tumor formation. We evaluated the development of spontaneous tumors in mice lacking beta-2 microglobulin (beta2m; and thus MHC class I, CD1d, and CD16) and/or perform, since these tumor cells would be expected to activate innate effector cells. Approximately half the cohort of perform gene-targeted mice succumbed to spontaneous disseminated B cell lymphomas and in mice that also lacked beta2m, the lymphomas developed earlier (by more than 100 d) and with greater incidence (84%). B cell lymphomas from perforin/beta2m gene-targeted mice effectively primed cell-mediated cytotoxicity and perform, but not IFN-gamma, IL-12, or IL-18, was absolutely essential for tumor rejection. Activated NK1.1(+) and gammadeltaTCR(+) T cells were abundant at the tumor site, and transplanted tumors were strongly rejected by either, or both, of these cell types. Blockade of a number of different known costimulatory pathways failed to prevent tumor rejection. These results reflect a critical role for NK cells and gammadeltaTCP(+) T cells in innate immune surveillance of B cell lymphomas, mediated by as yet undetermined pathway(s) of tumor recognition.