A jackknife variance estimator for unequal probability sampling

The jackknife method is often used for variance estimation in sample surveys but has only been developed for a limited class of sampling designs.We propose a jackknife variance estimator which is defined for any without-replacement unequal probability sampling design. We demonstrate design consistency of this estimator for a broad class of point estimators. A Monte Carlo study shows how the proposed estimator may improve on existing estimators.

Variance estimation with highly stratified sampling designs with unequal probabilities

It is common practice to design a survey with a large number of strata. However, in this case the usual techniques for variance estimation can be inaccurate. This paper proposes a variance estimator for estimators of totals. The method proposed can be implemented with standard statistical packages without any specific programming, as it involves simple techniques of estimation, such as regression fitting.

Some general comparative points on Chao's and Zelterman's estimators of the population size

Two simple and frequently used capture–recapture estimates of the population size are compared: Chao's lower-bound estimate and Zelterman's estimate allowing for contaminated distributions. In the Poisson case it is shown that if there are only counts of ones and twos, the estimator of Zelterman is always bounded above by Chao's estimator. If counts larger than two exist, the estimator of Zelterman is becoming larger than that of Chao's, if only the ratio of the frequencies of counts of twos and ones is small enough. A similar analysis is provided for the binomial case. For a two-component mixture of Poisson distributions the asymptotic bias of both estimators is derived and it is shown that the Zelterman estimator can experience large overestimation bias. A modified Zelterman estimator is suggested and also the bias-corrected version of Chao's estimator is considered. All four estimators are compared in a simulation study.

Adjusted jackknife for imputation under unequal probability sampling without replacement

Imputation is commonly used to compensate for item non-response in sample surveys. If we treat the imputed values as if they are true values, and then compute the variance estimates by using standard methods, such as the jackknife, we can seriously underestimate the true variances. We propose a modified jackknife variance estimator which is defined for any without-replacement unequal probability sampling design in the presence of imputation and non-negligible sampling fraction. Mean, ratio and random-imputation methods will be considered. The practical advantage of the method proposed is its breadth of applicability.

Review: intellectual property aspects of plant transformation

One of the recurring themes of the debates concerning the application of genetic transformation technology has been the role of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). This term covers both the content of patents and the confidential expertise usually related to methodology and referred to as 'Trade Secrets'. This review explains the concepts behind patent protection, and discusses the wide-ranging scope of existing patents that cover all aspects of transgenic technology, from selectable markers and novel promoters to methods of gene introduction. Although few of the patents in this area have any real commercial value, there are a small number of key patents that restrict the 'freedom to operate' of new companies seeking to exploit the methods. Over the last 20 years, these restrictions have forced extensive cross-licensing between ag-biotech companies and have been one of the driving forces behind the consolidation of these companies. Although such issues are often considered of little interest to the academic scientist working in the public sector, they are of great importance in any discussion of the role of 'public-good breeding' and of the relationship between the public and private sectors.

Educational participation post-16: a longitudinal analysis of intentions and outcomes

The issue of levels of participation in post-compulsory education has been emphasised by the current policy initiatives to increase the age to which some form of participation is compulsory. One of the acknowledged weaknesses of research in the field of children's intentions with regard to participation is the lack of longitudinal data. This paper offers a longitudinal analysis using the Youth Survey from the British Household Panel Survey. The results show that most children can express intentions with regard to future participation very early in their secondary school careers and that these intentions are good predictors of actual behaviour five years later. Intentions to stay on are more consistent than intentions to leave and most children who finally leave at 16 have at some point said they want to remain in education post-16. The strongest association with participation levels is attainment at GCSE. However, there are also influences of gender and parental background and these remain, even after attainment is held constant. The results show the value of focusing on intentions for participation at a very early stage of children's school careers and also the importance of current attempts to reform curriculum and assessment for the 14-19 age group.

A new theory of educational change - punctuated equilibrium: the case of the internationalisation of Higher Education institutions

This article argues for a new theoretical paradigm for the analysis of change in educational institutions that is able to deal with such issues as readiness for change, transformational change and the failure of change strategies. Punctuated equilibrium (Tushman and Romanelli, 1985) is a theory which has wide application. It envisages long-term change as being made up of a succession of long periods of relative stability interspersed by brief periods of rapid profound change. In the periods of stability only relatively small incremental changes are possible. The periods of transformational change may be triggered by external or internal influences. A recent study of the long-term process of internationalisation in higher education institutions shows evidence to support the theory: long periods of incremental change, events precipitating profound change and the failure of externally imposed attempts to change. Also, as the theory predicts, changes in collegial organisations are slower and more uncertain than changes in managed organisations.

Student perceptions of their IEP targets

The 2001 Code of Practice for Special Educational Needs (DfES, 2001) explicitly states that students with IEPs should have an active role in the writing and implementing of them. A research project was conducted in which 19 Year 8 students in three schools were interviewed, with the findings cross-referenced against an examination of their individual education plans (IEPs) and interviews with the SENCos. Very few students were able to communicate a clear understanding of IEPs. Students' stated targets mostly reflected mainstream target-setting: very few stated targets matched with those in their IEPs. Consistent with these findings is literature which argues that meaningfully involving students in the IEP process takes considerable time and effort, which would appear to imply that the number of students with IEPs in any one school must be limited. Against this are pressures, particularly from OFSTED but also from examination boards, to have IEPs available as evidence that students' needs are being met. The article concludes by suggesting that SENCos look to limit the number of IEPs issued, alongside a robust defence of the school's special educational needs policy within the school evaluation form to ensure that students' needs are met and also are seen to be met.

Formative assessment in teacher education: the development of a diagnostic language test for trainee teachers of German

This article describes the development and validation of a diagnostic test of German and its integration in a programme of formative assessment during a one-year initial teacher-training course. The test focuses on linguistic aspects that cause difficulty for trainee teachers of German as a foreign language and assesses implicit and explicit grammatical knowledge as well as students' confidence in this knowledge. Administration of the test to 57 German speakers in four groups (first-year undergraduates, fourth-year undergraduates, postgraduate trainees, and native speakers) provided evidence of its reliability and validity.

Preliterate phonological awareness and early literacy skills in Turkish

The role of preschool phonological awareness in early reading and spelling skills was investigated in the transparent orthography of Turkish. Fifty-six preschool children (mean age=5.6 years) were followed into Grade 2 (mean age=7.6 years). While preschool phonological awareness failed to make any reliable contribution to future reading skills, it was the strongest longitudinal correlate of spelling skills measured at the end of Grades 1 and 2. Overall findings suggested that phonological awareness may be differentially related to reading and spelling, and that spelling is a more sensitive index of phonological processing skills. In this study, verbal short-term memory emerged as the most powerful and consistent longitudinal correlate of reading speed. This finding raised important questions about the component processes of reading speed, and the role of memory and morphosyntactic skills in an agglutinative and transparent orthography such as Turkish.

The relationship between phonological awareness and word reading accuracy in Oriya and English: A Study of Oriya-speaking fifth-graders

This study investigated the relationships between phonological awareness and reading in Oriya and English. Oriya is the official language of Orissa, an eastern state of India. The writing system is an alphasyllabary. Ninety-nine fifth grade children (mean age 9 years 7 months) were assessed on measures of phonological awareness, word reading and pseudo-word reading in both languages. Forty-eight of the children attended Oriya-medium schools where they received literacy instruction in Oriya from grade 1 and learned English from grade 2. Fifty-one children attended English-medium schools where they received literacy instruction in English from grade 1 and in Oriya from grade 2. The results showed that phonological awareness in Oriya contributed significantly to reading Oriya and English words and pseudo-words for the children in the Oriya-medium schools. However, it only contributed to Oriya pseudo-word reading and English word reading for children in the English-medium schools. Phonological awareness in English contributed to English word and pseudo-word reading for both groups. Further analyses investigated the contribution of awareness of large phonological units (syllable, onsets and rimes) and small phonological units (phonemes) to reading in each language. The data suggest that cross-language transfer and facilitation of phonological awareness to word reading is not symmetrical across languages and may depend both on the characteristics of the different orthographies of the languages being learned and whether the first literacy language is also the first spoken language.

IEPs in mainstream secondary schools: an agenda for research

Providing children with special educational needs with individual education plans (IEPs) was advocated in the 1994 code of practice for SEN, and retained in the 2000 code. Specifically as it relates to mainstream secondary schools, this has proved highly controversial: many SENCos report that the writing and implementing of IEPs is a bureaucratic encumbrance, whilst others, going about the process of writing IEPs in very different ways, report that the process is both manageable and beneficial to the children concerned. Given this contradictory evidence, there is an urgent need for research into this area. Having looked at three case-studies of schools using very different methods to write IEPs in ways with which they feel comfortable, a research agenda is set out with a view to informing policies which ensure that resources spent on SEN are used as productively as possible.

Conjugated linoleic acid and human health-related outcomes

There has been increasing interest in health benefits of conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) based on findings with laboratory animals. Some human studies have also suggested health benefits of CLA, but because of the mixes used these could not be readily associated with a particular isomer of CLA. A recent study examined the separate effects of near-pure cis-9,trans-11 CLA (c9,t11 CLA) or trans-10,cis-12 CLA (t10,c12 CLA) on health-related outcomes in healthy young males. The CLA isomers were provided in capsules and at three doses (up to about 2.5 g/day) each for 8 weeks. Both c9,t11 and t10,c12 CLA were incorporated in a dose–response fashion into blood lipids and cells. At the doses and durations used, neither isomer of CLA affected bodyweight, body mass index or body composition, insulin sensitivity, immune function or markers of inflammation. However, at the doses and durations used, c9,t11 and t10,c12 CLA had opposing effects on blood lipid concentrations. Altered dairy cow-feeding practices were used to produce c9,t11 CLA-rich milk and, from this ultra heat-treated milk, cheese and butter were produced. The milk and the dairy products made from it had ninefold higher contents of c9,t11 CLA, higher contents of n-3 fatty acids and lower contents of total fat and of saturated fatty acids. They also contained much higher contents of trans-vaccenic acid (tVA). The modified dairy products were used in a 6-week controlled dietary intervention study in healthy middle-aged males. c9,t11 CLA and tVA were incorporated from dairy products into blood lipids and cells. Consumption of the CLA-rich (and tVA-rich) dairy products did not affect bodyweight or body mass index, insulin sensitivity or inflammatory markers. However, there were some detrimental effects on blood lipids. These effects may be due to tVA rather than to c9,t11 CLA, as they are consistent with the effects of trans fatty acids and not consistent with the effects of c9,t11 CLA identified in the earlier study with c9,t11 CLA in capsules.