Assessment of functional forms of crop yield loss models of invasive plant species applied in decision support tools and bioeconomic modelling

AbstractObjectives Decision support tools (DSTs) for invasive species management have had limited success in producing convincing results and meeting users' expectations. The problems could be linked to the functional form of model which represents the dynamic relationship between the invasive species and crop yield loss in the DSTs. The objectives of this study were: a) to compile and review the models tested on field experiments and applied to DSTs; and b) to do an empirical evaluation of some popular models and alternatives. Design and methods This study surveyed the literature and documented strengths and weaknesses of the functional forms of yield loss models. Some widely used models (linear, relative yield and hyperbolic models) and two potentially useful models (the double-scaled and density-scaled models) were evaluated for a wide range of weed densities, maximum potential yield loss and maximum yield loss per weed. Results Popular functional forms include hyperbolic, sigmoid, linear, quadratic and inverse models. Many basic models were modified to account for the effect of important factors (weather, tillage and growth stage of crop at weed emergence) influencing weed–crop interaction and to improve prediction accuracy. This limited their applicability for use in DSTs as they became less generalized in nature and often were applicable to a much narrower range of conditions than would be encountered in the use of DSTs. These factors' effects could be better accounted by using other techniques. Among the model empirically assessed, the linear model is a very simple model which appears to work well at sparse weed densities, but it produces unrealistic behaviour at high densities. The relative-yield model exhibits expected behaviour at high densities and high levels of maximum yield loss per weed but probably underestimates yield loss at low to intermediate densities. The hyperbolic model demonstrated reasonable behaviour at lower weed densities, but produced biologically unreasonable behaviour at low rates of loss per weed and high yield loss at the maximum weed density. The density-scaled model is not sensitive to the yield loss at maximum weed density in terms of the number of weeds that will produce a certain proportion of that maximum yield loss. The double-scaled model appeared to produce more robust estimates of the impact of weeds under a wide range of conditions. Conclusions Previously tested functional forms exhibit problems for use in DSTs for crop yield loss modelling. Of the models evaluated, the double-scaled model exhibits desirable qualitative behaviour under most circumstances.

Development of type I genetic markers from expressed sequence tags in highly polymorphic species

Expressed sequence tag (EST) databases provide a primary source of nuclear DNA sequences for genetic marker development in non-model organisms. To date, the process has been relatively inefficient for several reasons: - 1) priming site polymorphism in the template leads to inferior or erratic amplification; - 2) introns in the target amplicon are too large and/or numerous to allow effective amplification under standard screening conditions, and; - 3) at least occasionally, a PCR primer straddles an exon–intron junction and is unable to bind to genomic DNA template. The first is only a minor issue for species or strains with low heterozygosity but becomes a significant problem for species with high genomic variation, such as marine organisms with extremely large effective population sizes. Problems arising from unanticipated introns are unavoidable but are most pronounced in intron-rich species, such as vertebrates and lophotrochozoans. We present an approach to marker development in the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas, a highly polymorphic and intron-rich species, which minimizes these problems, and should be applicable to other non-model species for which EST databases are available. Placement of PCR primers in the 3′ end of coding sequence and 3′ UTR improved PCR success rate from 51% to 97%. Almost all (37 of 39) markers developed for the Pacific oyster were polymorphic in a small test panel of wild and domesticated oysters.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Placental infection with Ureaplasma species is associated with histologic chorioamnionitis and adverse outcomes in moderately preterm and late-preterm infants

Objective The human Ureaplasma species are the microbes most frequently isolated from placentae of women who deliver preterm. The role of Ureaplasma species has been investigated in pregnancies at <32 weeks of gestation, but currently no studies have determined the prevalence of ureaplasmas in moderately preterm and late-preterm (hereafter, “moderate/late preterm”) infants, the largest cohort of preterm infants. Methods Women delivering moderate/late preterm infants (n = 477) and their infants/placentae (n = 535) were recruited, and swab specimens of chorioamnion tissue, chorioamnion tissue specimens, and cord blood specimens were obtained at delivery. Swab and tissue specimens were cultured and analyzed by 16S ribosomal RNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the presence of microorganisms, while cord blood specimens were analyzed for the presence of cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors. Results We detected microorganisms in 10.6% of 535 placentae (443 were delivered late preterm and 92 were delivered at term). Significantly, Ureaplasma species were the most prevalent microorganisms, and their presence alone was associated with histologically confirmed chorioamnionitis in moderate/late preterm and term placentae (P < .001). The presence of ureaplasmas in the chorioamnion was also associated with elevated levels of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (P = .02). Conclusions These findings have important implications for infection and adverse pregnancy outcomes throughout gestation and should be of major consideration for obstetricians and neonatologists.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

First report of Cotton leafroll dwarf virus in Thailand using a species-specific PCR validated with isolates from Brazil

Partial virus genome sequence with high nucleotide identity to Cotton leafroll dwarf virus (CLRDV) was identified from two cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) samples from Thailand displaying typical cotton leaf roll disease symptoms. We developed and validated a PCR assay for the detection of CLRDV isolates from Thailand and Brazil.

Fungus-feeding Thysanoptera: Phlaeothripinae of the Idiothrips genus-group in Australia, with nine new species

In a group of fungus-feeding Phlaeothripinae characterized by complex body sculpture, identification keys are provided to three genera and 15 species from Australia, including nine new species. In the genus Azaleothrips one new species is described, and one Asian species is newly recorded from Australia. The genus Stictothrips is recorded from Australia for the first time, with two new species. Within the genus Strepterothrips considerable structural diversity is recorded including three new species in which antennal segment III is greatly reduced and bears no sense cones. Some species in this genus exhibit the unusual condition of having several setae on the pelta, the first abdominal tergite. Problems in the production of generic diagnoses within the Phlaeothripinae are discussed.