Predicting practical benefits of dynamic asset ratings of 33kv distribution transformers

This paper reports potential benefits around dynamic thermal rating prediction of primary transformers within Western Power Distribution (WPD) managed Project FALCON (Flexible Approaches to Low Carbon Optimised Networks). Details of the thermal modelling, parameter optimisation and results validation are presented with asset and environmental data (measured and day/week-ahead forecast) which are used for determining dynamic ampacity. Detailed analysis of ratings and benefits and confidence in ability to accurately predict dynamic ratings are presented. Investigating the effect of sustained ONAN rating compared to a dynamic rating shows that there is scope to increase sustained ratings under ONAN operating conditions by up to 10% higher between December and March with a high degree of confidence. However, under high ambient temperature conditions this dynamic rating may also reduce in the summer months.