Statistical modeling on coordinates

This paper is a first draft of the principle of statistical modelling on coordinates. Several causes —which would be long to detail—have led to this situation close to the deadline for submitting papers to CODAWORK’03. The main of them is the fast development of the approach along thelast months, which let appear previous drafts as obsolete. The present paper contains the essential parts of the state of the art of this approach from my point of view. I would like to acknowledge many clarifying discussions with the group of people working in this field in Girona, Barcelona, Carrick Castle, Firenze, Berlin, G¨ottingen, and Freiberg. They have given a lot of suggestions and ideas. Nevertheless, there might be still errors or unclear aspects which are exclusively my fault. I hope this contribution serves as a basis for further discussions and new developments

A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

The oldest Triassic platform margin reef from the Alpine - Carpathian region (Aggtelek, NE Hungary): platform evolution, reefal biota and biostratigraphic framework

The 1:10,000 scale mapping of the southern part of the Aggtelek Plateau (Western Carpathians, Silica Nappe, NE Hungary) and the study of five sections revealed two Middle Triassic reef bodies. In the late Pelsonian the uniform Steinalm Platform was drowned and dissected due to the Reifling Event. A connection with the open sea was established, indicated by the appearance of gladigondolellid conodonts from the early Illyrian. Basins and highs were formed. In the NW part of the studied area lower - middle? Illyrian basinal carbonates were followed by a platform margin reef (early? - middle Illyrian; reef stage 1) developed on a morphological high. This is the oldest known Triassic platform margin reef within the Alpine-Carpathian region. The reef association is dominated by sphinctozoans and microproblematics. The fossils are characteristic of the Wetterstein - type reef communities. Differently from this in the SE part of the studied region a basin existed from the late Pelsonian until the early Ladinian. During the late Illyrian - early Ladinian, the reef prograded to the SE, and reef stage 2 was established. Meanwhile, on the NW part of the platform a lagoon was formed behind the reef. Based on our palaeontological study the stratigraphic range of Colospongia catenulata, Follicatena cautica, Solenolmia manon manon, Vesicocaulis oenipontanus must be extended down to the middle Illyrian. Synsedimentary tectonics were detected in the 1. Binodosus Subzone, 2. Trinodosus Zone - the most part of the Reitzi Zone, 3. Avisianum Subzone.

Evidence evaluation in fingerprint comparison and automated fingerprint identification systems: modeling between finger variability

In the context of the investigation of the use of automated fingerprint identification systems (AFIS) for the evaluation of fingerprint evidence, the current study presents investigations into the variability of scores from an AFIS system when fingermarks from a known donor are compared to fingerprints that are not from the same source. The ultimate goal is to propose a model, based on likelihood ratios, which allows the evaluation of mark-to-print comparisons. In particular, this model, through its use of AFIS technology, benefits from the possibility of using a large amount of data, as well as from an already built-in proximity measure, the AFIS score. More precisely, the numerator of the LR is obtained from scores issued from comparisons between impressions from the same source and showing the same minutia configuration. The denominator of the LR is obtained by extracting scores from comparisons of the questioned mark with a database of non-matching sources. This paper focuses solely on the assignment of the denominator of the LR. We refer to it by the generic term of between-finger variability. The issues addressed in this paper in relation to between-finger variability are the required sample size, the influence of the finger number and general pattern, as well as that of the number of minutiae included and their configuration on a given finger. Results show that reliable estimation of between-finger variability is feasible with 10,000 scores. These scores should come from the appropriate finger number/general pattern combination as defined by the mark. Furthermore, strategies of obtaining between-finger variability when these elements cannot be conclusively seen on the mark (and its position with respect to other marks for finger number) have been presented. These results immediately allow case-by-case estimation of the between-finger variability in an operational setting.

A framework for assessing the scale of influence of environmental factors on ecological patterns

The distribution of living organisms, habitats and ecosystems is primarily driven by abiotic environmental factors that are spatially structured. Assessing the spatial structure of environmental factors, e.g., through spatial autocorrelation analyses (SAC), can thus help us understand their scale of influence on the distribution of organisms, habitats, and ecosystems. Yet SAC analyses of environmental factors are still rarely performed in biogeographic studies. Here, we describe a novel framework that combines SAC and statistical clustering to identify scales of spatial patterning of environmental factors, which can then be interpreted as the scales at which those factors influence the geographic distribution of biological and ecological features. We illustrate this new framework with datasets at different spatial or thematic resolutions. This framework is conceptually and statistically robust, providing a valuable approach to tackle a wide range of issues in ecological and environmental research and particularly when building predictors for ecological models. The new framework can significantly promote fundamental research on all spatially-structured ecological patterns. It can also foster research and application in such fields as global change ecology, conservation planning, and landscape management.

Experimental Modeling and Control Strategies on an Open Mobile Robot Platform PRIM

This research work deals with the problem of modeling and design of low level speed controller for the mobile robot PRIM. The main objective is to develop an effective educational tool. On one hand, the interests in using the open mobile platform PRIM consist in integrating several highly related subjects to the automatic control theory in an educational context, by embracing the subjects of communications, signal processing, sensor fusion and hardware design, amongst others. On the other hand, the idea is to implement useful navigation strategies such that the robot can be served as a mobile multimedia information point. It is in this context, when navigation strategies are oriented to goal achievement, that a local model predictive control is attained. Hence, such studies are presented as a very interesting control strategy in order to develop the future capabilities of the system

Modeling stochasticity and robustness in gene regulatory networks.

MOTIVATION: Understanding gene regulation in biological processes and modeling the robustness of underlying regulatory networks is an important problem that is currently being addressed by computational systems biologists. Lately, there has been a renewed interest in Boolean modeling techniques for gene regulatory networks (GRNs). However, due to their deterministic nature, it is often difficult to identify whether these modeling approaches are robust to the addition of stochastic noise that is widespread in gene regulatory processes. Stochasticity in Boolean models of GRNs has been addressed relatively sparingly in the past, mainly by flipping the expression of genes between different expression levels with a predefined probability. This stochasticity in nodes (SIN) model leads to over representation of noise in GRNs and hence non-correspondence with biological observations. RESULTS: In this article, we introduce the stochasticity in functions (SIF) model for simulating stochasticity in Boolean models of GRNs. By providing biological motivation behind the use of the SIF model and applying it to the T-helper and T-cell activation networks, we show that the SIF model provides more biologically robust results than the existing SIN model of stochasticity in GRNs. AVAILABILITY: Algorithms are made available under our Boolean modeling toolbox, GenYsis. The software binaries can be downloaded from http://si2.epfl.ch/ approximately garg/genysis.html.

A nutritional intervention study with hydrolyzed collagen in pre-pubertal Spanish children: influence on bone modeling biomarkers

Aim: The aim of the study was to investigate the influence of dietary intake of commercial hydrolyzed collagen (Gelatine Royal ®) on bone remodeling in pre-pubertal children. Methods: A randomized double-blind study was carried out in 60 children (9.42 ± 1.31 years) divided into three groups according to the amount of partially hydrolyzed collagen taken daily for 4 months: placebo (G-I, n = 18), collagen (G-II, n = 20) and collagen + calcium (G-III, n = 22) groups. Analyses of the following biochemical markers were carried out: total and bone alkaline phosphatase (tALP and bALP), osteocalcin, tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP), type I collagen carboxy terminal telopeptide, lipids, calcium, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), thyroid-stimulating hormone, free thyroxin and intact parathormone. Results: There was a significantly greater increase in serum IGF-1 in G-III than in G II (p < 0.01) or G-I (p < 0.05) during the study period, and a significantly greater increase in plasma tALP in G-III than in G-I (p < 0.05). Serum bALP behavior significantly (p < 0.05) differed between G-II (increase) and G-I (decrease). Plasma TRAP behavior significantly differed between G-II and G-I (p < 0.01) and between G-III and G-II (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Daily dietary intake of hydrolyzed collagen seems to have a potential role in enhancing bone remodeling at key stages of growth and development.

Homology modeling and metabolism prediction of human carboxylesterase-2 using docking analyses by GriDock: a parallelized tool based on AutoDock 4.0.

Metabolic problems lead to numerous failures during clinical trials, and much effort is now devoted to developing in silico models predicting metabolic stability and metabolites. Such models are well known for cytochromes P450 and some transferases, whereas less has been done to predict the activity of human hydrolases. The present study was undertaken to develop a computational approach able to predict the hydrolysis of novel esters by human carboxylesterase hCES2. The study involved first a homology modeling of the hCES2 protein based on the model of hCES1 since the two proteins share a high degree of homology (congruent with 73%). A set of 40 known substrates of hCES2 was taken from the literature; the ligands were docked in both their neutral and ionized forms using GriDock, a parallel tool based on the AutoDock4.0 engine which can perform efficient and easy virtual screening analyses of large molecular databases exploiting multi-core architectures. Useful statistical models (e.g., r (2) = 0.91 for substrates in their unprotonated state) were calculated by correlating experimental pK(m) values with distance between the carbon atom of the substrate's ester group and the hydroxy function of Ser228. Additional parameters in the equations accounted for hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions between substrates and contributing residues. The negatively charged residues in the hCES2 cavity explained the preference of the enzyme for neutral substrates and, more generally, suggested that ligands which interact too strongly by ionic bonds (e.g., ACE inhibitors) cannot be good CES2 substrates because they are trapped in the cavity in unproductive modes and behave as inhibitors. The effects of protonation on substrate recognition and the contrasting behavior of substrates and products were finally investigated by MD simulations of some CES2 complexes.

An information theoretic framework for image segmentation

In this paper, an information theoretic framework for image segmentation is presented. This approach is based on the information channel that goes from the image intensity histogram to the regions of the partitioned image. It allows us to define a new family of segmentation methods which maximize the mutual information of the channel. Firstly, a greedy top-down algorithm which partitions an image into homogeneous regions is introduced. Secondly, a histogram quantization algorithm which clusters color bins in a greedy bottom-up way is defined. Finally, the resulting regions in the partitioning algorithm can optionally be merged using the quantized histogram

Explaining Fiscal Balances with a Simultaneous Equation Model of Revenue and Expenditure : A Case Study of Swiss Cantons Using Panel Data

Empirical literature on the analysis of the efficiency of measures for reducing persistent government deficits has mainly focused on the direct explanation of deficit. By contrast, this paper aims at modeling government revenue and expenditure within a simultaneous framework and deriving the fiscal balance (surplus or deficit) equation as the difference between the two variables. This setting enables one to not only judge how relevant the explanatory variables are in explaining the fiscal balance but also understand their impact on revenue and/or expenditure. Our empirical results, obtained by using a panel data set on Swiss Cantons for the period 1980-2002, confirm the relevance of the approach followed here, by providing unambiguous evidence of a simultaneous relationship between revenue and expenditure. They also reveal strong dynamic components in revenue, expenditure, and fiscal balance. Among the significant determinants of public fiscal balance we not only find the usual business cycle elements, but also and more importantly institutional factors such as the number of administrative units, and the ease with which people can resort to political (direct democracy) instruments, such as public initiatives and referendum.

The cover basement contact beneath the Rawil axial depression (Western Alps) - True amplitude seismic processing, petrophysical properties, and modeling

Since 1986, several near-vertical seismic reflection profiles have been recorded in Switzerland in order to map the deep geologic structure of the Alps. One objective of this endeavour has been to determine the geometries of the autochthonous basement and of the external crystalline massifs, important elements for understanding the geodynamics of the Alpine orogeny. The PNR-20 seismic line W1, located in the Rawil depression of the western Swiss Alps, provides important information on this subject. It extends northward from the `'Penninic front'' across the Helvetic nappes to the Prealps. The crystalline massifs do not outcrop along this profile. Thus, the interpretation of `'near-basement'' reflections has to be constrained by down-dip projections of surface geology, `'true amplitude'' processing, rock physical property studies and modelling. 3-D seismic modelling has been used to evaluate the seismic response of two alternative down-dip projection models. To constrain the interpretation in the southern part of the profile, `'true amplitude'' processing has provided information on the strength of the reflections. Density and velocity measurements on core samples collected up-dip from the region of the seismic line have been used to evaluate reflection coefficients of typical lithologic boundaries in the region. The cover-basement contact itself is not a source of strong reflections, but strong reflections arise from within the overlaying metasedimentary cover sequence, allowing the geometry of the top of the basement to be determined on the basis of `'near-basement'' reflections. The front of the external crystalline massifs is shown to extend beneath the Prealps, about 6 km north of the expected position. A 2-D model whose seismic response shows reflection patterns very similar to the observed is proposed.

Conceptual framework and pilot study to benchmark phylogenomic databases based on reference gene trees.

Phylogenomic databases provide orthology predictions for species with fully sequenced genomes. Although the goal seems well-defined, the content of these databases differs greatly. Seven ortholog databases (Ensembl Compara, eggNOG, HOGENOM, InParanoid, OMA, OrthoDB, Panther) were compared on the basis of reference trees. For three well-conserved protein families, we observed a generally high specificity of orthology assignments for these databases. We show that differences in the completeness of predicted gene relationships and in the phylogenetic information are, for the great majority, not due to the methods used, but to differences in the underlying database concepts. According to our metrics, none of the databases provides a fully correct and comprehensive protein classification. Our results provide a framework for meaningful and systematic comparisons of phylogenomic databases. In the future, a sustainable set of 'Gold standard' phylogenetic trees could provide a robust method for phylogenomic databases to assess their current quality status, measure changes following new database releases and diagnose improvements subsequent to an upgrade of the analysis procedure.

Diseño de un framework de persistencia

Este proyecto de final de carrera va encaminado al análisis, diseño e implementación de componentes de software, usualmente llamado framework, con la idea de servir de base para desarrollos sencillos directos así como para rediseños escalares posteriores. El objetivo es triple: estudiar y evaluar las diferentes alternativas existentes para implementar la capa de persistencia para aplicaciones JEE de cliente delgado, hacer el diseño y la implementación de un framework de mapeo entidad-relación y, por último, construir una aplicación de ejemplo que muestre el uso del framework que ha implementado.