Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures.

Lyme borreliosis in the UK: ecology and risks to domestic animals and man

The different associations of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato spirochaetes with their natural reservoir hosts and tick vectors are slowly being unravelled. This review discusses the interactions of different genospecies of Lyme borreliosis spirochaetes and their differing tick vectors, vertebrate reservoirs and 'accidental hosts'. Particular reference is made to spirochaete-host interactions and occurrence of pathological consequences. Attention is focused on the unique prevalence of enzoonotic cycles in operation within the UK. Risk factors for acquiring Lyme borreliosis in man are discussed. (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Prevalence of Leptospira species among farmed and domestic animals in Greece

A total of 1527 serum samples from pigs, goats, sheep, cattle and dogs in Greece were examined by the microscopic agglutination test and 11.8 per cent of them had antibodies against one or more Leptospira serovars at titres of 1/100 or more. The predominant serovar affecting farm animal species was Bratislava, and Copenhageni was common among dogs and the second most important serovar when all animals were considered together. Another prevalent serovar was Australis, but antibodies to Pomona were detected only in goats and cattle.

Consumption and social identity: evidence from India

We examine spending on consumption items which have signaling value in social interactions across groups with distinctive social identities in India, where social identities are defined by caste and religious affiliations. Using nationally representative micro data on household consumption expenditures, we find that disadvantaged caste groups such as Other Backward Castes spend 8 percent more on visible consumption than Brahmin and High Caste groups while social groups such as Muslims spend 14 percent less, after controlling for differences in permanent income, household assets and household demographic composition. The differences across social groups are significant and robust and these differences persist within different sub populations. We find that the higher spending of OBC households on visible consumption is diverted from education spending, while Muslim households divert spending from visible consumption and education towards greater food spending. Additionally, we find that these consumption patterns can be partly explained as a result of the status signaling nature of the consumption items. We also discuss alternative sources of differences in consumption patterns across groups which stem from religious observance.

Does consumption-wealth ratio signal stock returns? VECM results for Germany

This paper studies the signalling effect of the consumption−wealth ratio (cay) on German stock returns via vector error correction models (VECMs). The effect of cay on U.S. stock returns has been recently confirmed by Lettau and Ludvigson with a two−stage method. In this paper, performance of the VECMs and the two−stage method are compared in both German and U.S. data. It is found that the VECMs are more suitable to study the effect of cay on stock returns than the two−stage method. Using the Conditional−Subset VECM, cay signals real stock returns and excess returns in both data sets significantly. The estimated coefficient on cay for stock returns turns out to be two times greater in U.S. data than in German data. When the two−stage method is used, cay has no significant effect on German stock returns. Besides, it is also found that cay signals German wealth growth and U.S. income growth significantly.

Impact of serving method on the consumption of nutritional supplement drinks: randomised trial in older adults with cognitive impairment

Aim: To analyse the influence of serving method on compliance and consumption of nutritional supplement drinks in older adults with cognitive impairment. Background: Oral nutritional supplement drinks have positive benefits on increasing nutritional status within undernourished elderly people leading to weight gain. However, consumption of these drinks is low and therefore limits their effectiveness. Design: This study was a non blind randomised control trial where participants either consumed nutritional supplement drinks in a glass/beaker or consumed them through a straw inserted directly into the container. Method: Participants with longstanding cognitive impairment were recruited from nursing homes (n=31) and hospitals (n=14). Participants were randomised to serving method. Nursing and care staff were instructed to give the supplement drinks three times per day on alternate days over a week by the allocated serving method. The researcher weighed the amount of supplement drink remaining after consumption. Data were collected over 12 months in 2011-2012. Results: 45 people participated in this study mean age 86.7 (SD 7.5 ) years. After randomisation there was no significant difference between the baseline characteristics of the two groups. Participants randomised to consume nutritional drinks from a glass / beaker drank significantly more than those who consumed them via a straw inserted directly into the container. However, supplements allocated to be given in a glass/beaker were more frequently omitted. Conclusion: Nutritional supplement drinks should be given to people with dementia who are able to feed themselves in a glass or a beaker if staffing resources allow (NIHR CSP ref 31101).

Partially identified treatment effects under imperfect compliance: the case of domestic violence

The Minneapolis Domestic Violence Experiment (MDVE) is a randomized social experiment with imperfect compliance which has been extremely influential in how police officers respond to misdemeanor domestic violence. This paper re-examines data from the MDVE, using recent literature on partial identification to find recidivism associated with a policy that arrests misdemeanor domestic violence suspects rather than not arresting them. Using partially identified bounds on the average treatment effect I find that arresting rather than not arresting suspects can potentially reduce recidivism by more than two-and-a-half times the corresponding intent-to-treat estimate and more than two times the corresponding local average treatment effect, even when making minimal assumptions on counterfactuals.

The margin of appreciation, domestic irregularity and domestic court rulings in ECHR environmental jurisprudence: Global legal pluralism in action

Global legal pluralism is concerned, inter alia, with the growing multiplicity of normative legal orders and the ways in which these different orders intersect and are accommodated with one another. The different means used for accommodation will have a critical bearing on how individuals fare within them. This article examines the recent environmental jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights to explore some of the means of reaching an accommodation between national legal orders and the European Convention. Certain types of accommodation – such as the margin of appreciation given to states by the Court – are well known. In essence, such mechanisms of legal pluralism raise a presumptive barrier which generally works for the state and against the individual rights-bearer. However, the principal focus of the current article is on a less well-known, recent set of pluralistic devices employed by the Court, which typically operate presumptively in the other direction, in favour of the individual. First, the Court looks to instances of breaches of domestic environmental law (albeit not in isolation); and second, it places an emphasis on whether domestic courts have ruled against the relevant activity. Where domestic standards have been breached or national courts have ruled against the state, then, presumptive weight is typically shifted towards the individual.

City futures: exploring urban retrofit and sustainable transitions

Cities are responsible for up to 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption. By 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world's population will live in cities. The critical challenge for contemporary urbanism, therefore, is to understand how to develop the knowledge, capacity and capability for public agencies, the private sector and multiple users in city-regions (i.e. the city and its wider hinterland) to re-engineer systemically their built environment and urban infrastructure in response to climate change and resource constraints. To inform transitions to urban sustainability, key stakeholders' perceptions were sought though a participatory backcasting and scenario foresight process in order to illuminate challenging but realistic socio-technical scenarios for the systemic retrofit of core UK city-regions. The challenge of conceptualizing complex urban transitions is explored across multiple socio-technical ‘regimes’ (housing, non-domestic buildings, urban infrastructure), scales (building, neighbourhood, city-region), and domains (energy, water, use of resources) within a participatory process. The development of three archetypal ‘guiding visions’ of retrofit city-regional futures developed through this process are discussed, along with the contribution that such foresight processes might play in ‘opening up’ the governance and strategic navigation of urban sustainability.

Post-occupancy evaluation studies in recently refurbished office building: energy performance and employees' satisfaction

Existing buildings contribute greatly to global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. In the UK, about 18% of carbon emissions are generated by non-domestic buildings; sustainable building refurbishment can play an important role in reducing carbon emissions. This paper looks at the performance of a recently refurbished 5-storey office building in London, in terms of energy consumption as well as occupants’ satisfaction. Pre- and post-occupancy evaluation studies were conducted using online questionnaire surveys and energy consumption evaluation. Results from pre-occupancy and post-occupancy evaluation studies showed that employees, in general, were more satisfied with their work environment at the refurbished building than with that of their previous office. Employees’ self-reported productivity improved after the move to Elms House. These surveys showed a positive relationship between employees’ satisfaction with their work environment and their self-reported productivity, well-being and enjoyment at work. The factor that contributed to increasing employee satisfaction the most was: better use of interior space. Although the refurbishment was a success in terms of reducing energy consumption per m2, the performance gap was almost 3 times greater than that estimated. Unregulated loads, problems with building control, ineffective use of space and occupants’ behaviour are argued to be reasons for this gap.

Phenolic acid intake, delivered via moderate champagne wine consumption, improves spatial working memory via the modulation of hippocampal and cortical protein expression/activation.

Aims: While much data exist for the effects of flavonoid-rich foods on spatial memory in rodents, there are no such data for foods/beverages predominantly containing hydroxycinnamates and phenolic acids. To address this, we investigated the effects of moderate Champagne wine intake, which is rich in these components, on spatial memory and related mechanisms relative to the alcohol- and energy-matched controls. Results: In contrast to the isocaloric and alcohol-matched controls, supplementation with Champagne wine (1.78 ml/kg BW, alcohol 12.5% vol.) for 6 weeks led to an improvement in spatial working memory in aged rodents. Targeted protein arrays indicated that these behavioral effects were paralleled by the differential expression of a number of hippocampal and cortical proteins (relative to the isocaloric control group), including those involved in signal transduction, neuroplasticity, apoptosis, and cell cycle regulation. Western immunoblotting confirmed the differential modulation of brain-derived neurotrophic factor, cAMP response-element-binding protein (CREB), p38, dystrophin, 2',3'-cyclic-nucleotide 3'-phosphodiesterase, mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR), and Bcl-xL in response to Champagne supplementation compared to the control drink, and the modulation of mTOR, Bcl-xL, and CREB in response to alcohol supplementation. Innovation: Our data suggest that smaller phenolics such as gallic acid, protocatechuic acid, tyrosol, caftaric acid, and caffeic acid, in addition to flavonoids, are capable of exerting improvements in spatial memory via the modulation in hippocampal signaling and protein expression. Conclusion: Changes in spatial working memory induced by the Champagne supplementation are linked to the effects of absorbed phenolics on cytoskeletal proteins, neurotrophin expression, and the effects of alcohol on the regulation of apoptotic events in the hippocampus and cortex. Antioxid. Redox Signal. 00, 000-000.