Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

Distribution of metals exposure and associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the "Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study".

BACKGROUND: Metals are known endocrine disruptors and have been linked to cardiometabolic diseases via multiple potential mechanisms, yet few human studies have both the exposure variability and biologically-relevant phenotype data available. We sought to examine the distribution of metals exposure and potential associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the "Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study" (METS), a prospective cohort study designed to assess energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five countries at different stages of social and economic development. METHODS: Young adults (25-45 years) of African descent were enrolled (N = 500 from each site) in: Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the U.S.A. We randomly selected 150 blood samples (N = 30 from each site) to determine concentrations of selected metals (arsenic, cadmium, lead, mercury) in a subset of participants at baseline and to examine associations with cardiometabolic risk factors. RESULTS: Median (interquartile range) metal concentrations (μg/L) were: arsenic 8.5 (7.7); cadmium 0.01 (0.8); lead 16.6 (16.1); and mercury 1.5 (5.0). There were significant differences in metals concentrations by: site location, paid employment status, education, marital status, smoking, alcohol use, and fish intake. After adjusting for these covariates plus age and sex, arsenic (OR 4.1, 95% C.I. 1.2, 14.6) and lead (OR 4.0, 95% C.I. 1.6, 9.6) above the median values were significantly associated with elevated fasting glucose. These associations increased when models were further adjusted for percent body fat: arsenic (OR 5.6, 95% C.I. 1.5, 21.2) and lead (OR 5.0, 95% C.I. 2.0, 12.7). Cadmium and mercury were also related with increased odds of elevated fasting glucose, but the associations were not statistically significant. Arsenic was significantly associated with increased odds of low HDL cholesterol both with (OR 8.0, 95% C.I. 1.8, 35.0) and without (OR 5.9, 95% C.I. 1.5, 23.1) adjustment for percent body fat. CONCLUSIONS: While not consistent for all cardiometabolic disease markers, these results are suggestive of potentially important associations between metals exposure and cardiometabolic risk. Future studies will examine these associations in the larger cohort over time.

Distribution profile of zwitterions and hydrolysis of esters derived from N-benzylpiperazine

Résumé Les esters sont des agents thérapeutiques largement utilisés comme médicaments et prodrogues. Leurs dégradation est chimique et enzymatique. Le Chapitre IV de cette thèse a comme objet l'hydrolyse chimique de plusieurs dérivés esters du 2,3-dimethoxyphenol. Des composés modèles ont été synthétisés dans le but de déterminer leur mécanismes de dégradation. Les profils d'ionisation et d'hydrolyse de ces composés ont permis d'identifier la présence d'une catalyse intramoléculaire basique par un atome d'azote non-protoné. Les effets électroniques exercés par les groupes phenylethenyle et phenylcyclopropyle influencent également la vitesse d'hydrolyse des esters. La résolution des problèmes liés à l'adsorption et la perméation est devenue à nos jours l'étape limitante dans la conception de nouveaux médicaments car de trop nombreux candidats prometteurs ont échoué à cause d'une mauvaise biodisponibilité. La lipophilie décrit le partage d'un médicament entre une membrane lipidique et son environnement physiologique aqueux, et de ce fait elle influence sa pharmacocinétique. Des études récents ont mis en évidence l'importance de la détermination de la lipophilie des espèces ionisées vu leur considérable impact biologique. Le Chapitre V de cette thèse est centré sur une classe particulière de composés ionisables, les zwitterions. Plusieurs methoxybenzylpiperazines de nature zwitterionique ont été étudiées. Leurs profils d'ionisation ont montré que dans un large intervalle de pH, l'espèce prédominante est le zwitterion. Les profils de lipophilie ont montré que leur lipophilie est plus élevée que celles des zwitterions courants. Une interaction électrostatique entre l'oxygène du carboxylate et l'azote protoné est responsable de ce profil et rend la plupart des zwitterions non-donneurs de liaison hydrogène. Ces deux aspects peuvent favoriser le passage de la barrière hémato-éncephalique. Les données biologiques ont par la suite confirmé cette hypothèse pour un certain nombre de composés. Résumé large public Les esters sont des composés souvent rencontrés en chimie thérapeutique. Ils sont dégradés en milieu aqueux par une réaction d'hydrolyse, avec ou sans la participation d'enzymes. Dans ce travail de thèse, une série d'esters ont été étudiés dans le but d'établir une relation entre leur structure et les mécanismes responsables de leur dégradation chimique. Il a été prouvé que la dégradation est accélérée par un atome d'azote non-protoné. D'autres mécanismes peuvent intervenir en fonction du pH du milieu. La présence d'une liaison simple ou double ou d'un groupe phenylcyclopropyle peut également influencer la vitesse de dégradation. Il est essentiel, dans la conception de nouveaux médicaments, d'optimiser les étapes qui influencent leur distribution dans le corps. Ce dernier peut être visualisé comme une série infinie de compartiments aqueux séparés par des membranes lipidiques. La lipophilie est une propriété moléculaire importante qui décrit le passage des barrières rencontrées par les médicaments. Des études récentes ont mis en évidence l'importance de déterminer la lipophilie des espèces ionisées vu leur considérable impact biologique. Dans ce travail de thèse a été étudiée une série particulière de composés ionisables , les zwitterions. Une relation a été établie entre leur structure et leur proprietés physico-chimiques. Une lipophilie plus élevée par rapport à celle des zwitterions courants a été trouvée. Une interaction entre les groupes chargés des zwitterions étudiés est responsable de ce comportement inattendu et rend la plupart d'entre eux non-donneurs de liaison hydrogène. Ces deux facteurs peuvent favoriser la pénétration cérébrale. Les données biologiques ont confirmé cette hypothèse pour un certain nombre de composés. Summary Esters are often encountered in medicinal chemistry. Their hydrolysis may be chemical as well as enzymatic. Chapter IV of this manuscript provides a mechanistic insight into the chemical hydrolysis of a particular series of basic esters derived from 2,3-dimethoxyphenol. Their ionization and pH-rate profiles allowed to identify the presence of an intramolecular base catalysis by a non-protonated nitrogen atom. Electronic effects exerted by the phenylethenyl and phenylcyclopropyl groups that are present in the structure of the esters also influenced their rate of hydrolysis. Numerous works in the literature witness of the importance of lipophilicity in determining the fate of a drug. Most published partition coefficients are those of neutral species. In contrast, no exhaustive treatment of the lipophilicity of charged molecules is available at present, and a lack of information characterizes in particular zwitterions. Chapter V of this manuscript provides an insight into the physicochemical parameters of a series of zwitterionic methoxybenzylpiperazines. Their ionization profiles showed that they exist predominantly in the zwitterionic form in a broad pH-range. An electrostatic interaction between the oxygen of the carboxylate and the protonated nitrogen atom is increases the lipophilicity of the investigated zwitterions, and prevents the majority of them to express their hydrogen-bonding capacity. These two aspects may favor the crossing of the blood-brain barrier. The available ratios PSt/PSf measured in vitro have confirmed this point for a number of compounds.

Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space?

Aim To assess the geographical transferability of niche-based species distribution models fitted with two modelling techniques. Location Two distinct geographical study areas in Switzerland and Austria, in the subalpine and alpine belts. Methods Generalized linear and generalized additive models (GLM and GAM) with a binomial probability distribution and a logit link were fitted for 54 plant species, based on topoclimatic predictor variables. These models were then evaluated quantitatively and used for spatially explicit predictions within (internal evaluation and prediction) and between (external evaluation and prediction) the two regions. Comparisons of evaluations and spatial predictions between regions and models were conducted in order to test if species and methods meet the criteria of full transferability. By full transferability, we mean that: (1) the internal evaluation of models fitted in region A and B must be similar; (2) a model fitted in region A must at least retain a comparable external evaluation when projected into region B, and vice-versa; and (3) internal and external spatial predictions have to match within both regions. Results The measures of model fit are, on average, 24% higher for GAMs than for GLMs in both regions. However, the differences between internal and external evaluations (AUC coefficient) are also higher for GAMs than for GLMs (a difference of 30% for models fitted in Switzerland and 54% for models fitted in Austria). Transferability, as measured with the AUC evaluation, fails for 68% of the species in Switzerland and 55% in Austria for GLMs (respectively for 67% and 53% of the species for GAMs). For both GAMs and GLMs, the agreement between internal and external predictions is rather weak on average (Kulczynski's coefficient in the range 0.3-0.4), but varies widely among individual species. The dominant pattern is an asymmetrical transferability between the two study regions (a mean decrease of 20% for the AUC coefficient when the models are transferred from Switzerland and 13% when they are transferred from Austria). Main conclusions The large inter-specific variability observed among the 54 study species underlines the need to consider more than a few species to test properly the transferability of species distribution models. The pronounced asymmetry in transferability between the two study regions may be due to peculiarities of these regions, such as differences in the ranges of environmental predictors or the varied impact of land-use history, or to species-specific reasons like differential phenotypic plasticity, existence of ecotypes or varied dependence on biotic interactions that are not properly incorporated into niche-based models. The lower variation between internal and external evaluation of GLMs compared to GAMs further suggests that overfitting may reduce transferability. Overall, a limited geographical transferability calls for caution when projecting niche-based models for assessing the fate of species in future environments.

Distribution de la fraction d'excrétion rénale du lithium et de l'acide urique dans l'étude de population Hercules

Problématique¦L'évaluation fonctionnelle du tubule proximal du rein est intéressante pour la compréhension de la physiopathologie des anomalies du transport du sodium à ce niveau du néphron. Ces anomalies participent au développement de l'hypertension artérielle (HTA) et de la sensibilité au sel. Environ 60% à 80% du sodium est réabsorbé proximalement dans le néphron. Chez l'animal, la fonction du tube proximal peut être estimée directement par microponction. Une telle approche directe n'étant pas possible chez l'homme, seul des approches indirectes permettent de recueillir des informations sur la physiologie de ce segment du néphron, comme par exemple par la mesure de la clairance du lithium (endogène ou exogène) ou de l'acide urique. La fraction d'excrétion du lithium (FELi) et la fraction d'excrétion de l'acide urique (FEAU) permettent d'estimer la réabsorption proximale de sodium chez l'homme. Plusieurs études expérimentales et cliniques ont montré l'existence d'une relation linéaire entre la FELi et la fraction excrétée du sodium (FENa) chez l'animal et l'homme.¦Objectif¦Décrire la distribution de la FELi et de la FEAU et analyser les associations de ces deux variables avec l'âge, le sexe, la consommation d'alcool, le tabagisme, la pression artérielle et l'IMC dans l'étude de population Hercules.¦Méthodes¦Sélection au hasard d'un sous-groupe de participants de l'étude CoLaus (N=6188). Nombre de participants à l'étude Hercules: 437, dont 229 femmes et 208 hommes. Les participants ont effectué une récolte d'urine sur 24 heures afin de déterminer la fonction rénale et les FELi et FEAU. Le TFG a été mesuré à l'aide de la clairance de la créatinine. Le test des rangs signés de Wilcoxon pour données appariées ( Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed rank test) et le test de comparaison des médianes ont été utilisés pour la comparaison entre groupes. Le coefficient de corrélation de Spearman a été utilisé pour évaluer la relation entre les variables continues. Les box-plots ont été utilisés pour la description de la distribution du lithium et de l'acide urique selon l'âge, le sexe et la période de la journée. Le logiciel Stata 11.0 a été utilisé pour les analyses statistiques.¦Résultats¦La prévalence de l'HTA dans la population de l'étude Hercules était 33%, la prévalence du diabète était 8%, la prévalence de l'obésité était 15.3%, la prévalence du tabagisme était 23%. La FELi reste stable avec l'âge et est similaire dans les deux sexes. Chez les hommes, la FELi est plus grande la nuit que le jour, c'est-à-dire qu'ils résorbent plus de sodium proximalement le jour que la nuit. Un IMC plus grand est associé à une FELi plus basse dans les deux sexes. Il y a une corrélation négative entre la FEAU et l'IMC (significative) et la consommation d'alcool.¦Conclusion¦Les résultats obtenus avec les données de l'étude Hercules sont similaires à ceux qu'on retrouve dans la littérature sur la FELi et la FEAU , ce qui rassure sur la qualité des données. La FELi varie peu avec l'âge et le sexe, contrairement à la FEAU, qui varie fortement avec l'âge et le sexe. L'HTA, le diabète, l'obésité, le tabagisme et la consommation d'alcool sont associées à une FELi et FEAU plus basses. Les sujets qui présentent ces caractéristiques réabsorbent donc plus de sodium au niveau proximal.

Distribution of neuropeptide Y Y1 receptors in rodent peripheral tissues.

Using a sensitive immunohistochemical technique, the localization of neuropeptide Y (NPY) Y1-receptor (Y1R)-like immunoreactivity (LI) was studied in various peripheral tissues of rat. Wild-type (WT) and Y1R-knockout (KO) mice were also analyzed. Y1R-LI was found in small arteries and arterioles in many tissues, with particularly high levels in the thyroid and parathyroid glands. In the thyroid gland, Y1R-LI was seen in blood vessel walls lacking alpha-smooth muscle actin, i.e., perhaps in endothelial cells of capillaries. Larger arteries lacked detectable Y1R-LI. A distinct Y1R-immunoreactive (IR) reticulum was seen in the WT mouse spleen, but not in Y1R-KO mouse or rat. In the gastrointestinal tract, Y1R-positive neurons were observed in the myenteric plexus, and a few enteroendocrine cells were Y1R-IR. Some cells in islets of Langerhans in the pancreas were Y1R-positive, and double immunostaining showed coexistence with somatostatin in D-cells. In the urogenital tract, Y1R-LI was observed in the collecting tubule cells of the renal papillae and in some epithelial cells of the seminal vesicle. Some chromaffin cells of adrenal medulla were positive for Y1R. The problem of the specificity of the Y1R-LI is evaluated using adsorption tests as well as comparisons among rat, WT mouse, and mouse with deleted Y1R. Our findings support many earlier studies based on other methodologies, showing that Y1Rs on smooth muscle cells of blood vessels mediate NPY-induced vasoconstriction in various organs. In addition, Y1Rs in other cells in parenchymal tissues of several organs suggest nonvascular effects of NPY via the Y1R.

Extreme population differentiation in vulnerable slavemaking ant with fragmented distribution

Understanding levels of population differentiation and inbreeding are important issues in conservation biology, especially for social Hymenoptera with fragmented and small population sizes. Isolated populations are more vulnerable to genetic loss and extinction than those with extended continuous distributions. However, small populations are not always a consequence of a recent reduction of their habitat. Thus, determining the history of population isolation and current patterns of genetic variation of a species is crucial for its conservation. Rossomyrmex minuchae is a slave-making ant with patchy distribution in South Eastern Spain and is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN. In contrast, the other three known species of the genus are presumed to show more uniform distributions. Here we investigate the genetic diversity and population structure of R. minuchae and compare it with that found in two other species of the genus: R. anatolicus and R. quandratinodum. We conclude that although genetic diversity of R. minuchae is low, there is no evidence of a recent bottleneck, suggesting a gradual and natural fragmentation process. We also show extreme population differentiation at nuclear and mitochondrial markers, and isolation by distance at a local scale. Despite some evidence for inbreeding and low genetic variation within populations, we found almost no diploid males, a finding which contrasts with that expected in inbred Hymenoptera with single locus complementary sex determination. This could mean that sex is determined by another mechanism. We argue that continued low population size means that detrimental effects of inbreeding and low genetic variation are likely in the future. We suggest that a policy of artificial gene flow aimed at increasing within population variation is considered as a management option.

Effects of a nonpressor dose of neuropeptide Y on cardiac output, regional blood flow distribution and plasma renin, vasopressin and catecholamine levels.

Neuropeptide Y (NPY) is a peptide with vasoconstrictor properties known to be present in the central nervous system as well as in sympathetic nerve endings and the adrenal medulla. The purposes of this study were to investigate in normotensive conscious rats the effects of nonpressor doses of NPY on cardiac output and regional blood flow distribution (using radiolabeled microspheres) as well as on plasma renin activity, plasma catecholamine and vasopressin levels. NPY (0.1 microgram/min) infused i.v. for 30 min modified neither blood pressure nor heart rate. Cardiac index was at comparable levels in NPY- as in vehicle-treated rats (17.7 +/- 1.6, n = 8, vs. 21.3 +/- 0.9 ml/min/100 g, n = 8, mean +/- S.E.M.). There was no significant difference in regional blood flow distribution between the two groups of rats, except for the large intestine (0.42 +/- 0.06 vs. 0.71 +/- 0.1 ml/min/g in NPY- and vehicle-treated rats, respectively, P less than .05). Basal plasma renin activity and catecholamine levels were not modified by NPY whereas plasma vasopressin levels were lower (P less than .05) in rats given NPY (0.76 +/- 0.3 pg/ml, n = 8) than in those having received the vehicle (2.2 +/- 0.4 pg/ml).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Spatial Polarization of the Ecological Footprint distribution

The international allocation of natural resources is determined, not by any ethical or ecological criteria, but by the dominance of market mechanisms. From a core-periphery perspective, this allocation may even be driven by historically determined structural patterns, with a core group of countries whose consumption appropriates most available natural resources, and another group, having low natural resource consumption, which plays a peripheral role. This article consists of an empirical distributional analysis of natural resource consumption (as measured by Ecological Footprints) whose purpose is to assess the extent to which the distribution of consumption responds to polarization (as opposed to mere inequality). To assess this, we estimate and decompose different polarization indices for a balanced sample of 119 countries over the period 1961 to 2007. Our results points toward a polarized distribution which is consistent with a core-periphery framework.

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.

Introduction of snow and geomorphic disturbance variables into predictive models of alpine plant distribution in the Western Swiss Alps

Indirect topographic variables have been used successfully as surrogates for disturbance processes in plant species distribution models (SDM) in mountain environments. However, no SDM studies have directly tested the performance of disturbance variables. In this study, we developed two disturbance variables: a geomorphic index (GEO) and an index of snow redistribution by wind (SNOW). These were developed in order to assess how they improved both the fit and predictive power of presenceabsence SDM based on commonly used topoclimatic (TC) variables for 91 plants in the Western Swiss Alps. The individual contribution of the disturbance variables was compared to TC variables. Maps of models were prepared to spatially test the effect of disturbance variables. On average, disturbance variables significantly improved the fit but not the predictive power of the TC models and their individual contribution was weak (5.6% for GEO and 3.3% for SNOW). However their maximum individual contribution was important (24.7% and 20.7%). Finally, maps including disturbance variables (i) were significantly divergent from TC models in terms of predicted suitable surfaces and connectivity between potential habitats, and (ii) were interpreted as more ecologically relevant. Disturbance variables did not improve the transferability of models at the local scale in a complex mountain system, and the performance and contribution of these variables were highly species-specific. However, improved spatial projections and change in connectivity are important issues when preparing projections under climate change because the future range size of the species will determine the sensitivity to changing conditions.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.