Geographic distribution of plant pathogens in response to climate change

Geographic distributions of pathogens are the outcome of dynamic processes involving host availability, susceptibility and abundance, suitability of climate conditions, and historical contingency including evolutionary change. Distributions have changed fast and are changing fast in response to many factors, including climatic change. The response time of arable agriculture is intrinsically fast, but perennial crops and especially forests are unlikely to adapt easily. Predictions of many of the variables needed to predict changes in pathogen range are still rather uncertain, and their effects will be profoundly modified by changes elsewhere in the agricultural system, including both economic changes affecting growing systems and hosts and evolutionary changes in pathogens and hosts. Tools to predict changes based on environmental correlations depend on good primary data, which is often absent, and need to be checked against the historical record, which remains very poor for almost all pathogens. We argue that at present the uncertainty in predictions of change is so great that the important adaptive response is to monitor changes and to retain the capacity to innovate, both by access to economic capital with reasonably long-term rates of return and by retaining wide scientific expertise, including currently less fashionable specialisms.

The distribution of solar wind speeds during solar minimum: calibration for numerical solar wind modeling constraints on the source of the slow solar wind

It took the solar polar passage of Ulysses in the early 1990s to establish the global structure of the solar wind speed during solar minimum. However, it remains unclear if the solar wind is composed of two distinct populations of solar wind from different sources (e.g., closed loops which open up to produce the slow solar wind) or if the fast and slow solar wind rely on the superradial expansion of the magnetic field to account for the observed solar wind speed variation. We investigate the solar wind in the inner corona using the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model incorporating a new empirical magnetic topology–velocity relationship calibrated for use at 0.1 AU. In this study the empirical solar wind speed relationship was determined by using Helios perihelion observations, along with results from Riley et al. (2003) and Schwadron et al. (2005) as constraints. The new relationship was tested by using it to drive the ENLIL 3-D MHD solar wind model and obtain solar wind parameters at Earth (1.0 AU) and Ulysses (1.4 AU). The improvements in speed, its variability, and the occurrence of high-speed enhancements provide confidence that the new velocity relationship better determines the solar wind speed in the outer corona (0.1 AU). An analysis of this improved velocity field within the WSA model suggests the existence of two distinct mechanisms of the solar wind generation, one for fast and one for slow solar wind, implying that a combination of present theories may be necessary to explain solar wind observations.

The distribution of the ring current: Cluster observations

Extending previous studies, a full-circle investigation of the ring current has been made using Cluster 4-spacecraft observations near perigee, at times when the Cluster array had relatively small separations and nearly regular tetrahedral configurations, and when the Dst index was greater than −30 nT (non-storm conditions). These observations result in direct estimations of the near equatorial current density at all magnetic local times (MLT) for the first time and with sufficient accuracy, for the following observations. The results confirm that the ring current flows westward and show that the in situ average measured current density (sampled in the radial range accessed by Cluster 4–4.5RE) is asymmetric in MLT, ranging from 9 to 27 nAm−2. The direction of current is shown to be very well ordered for the whole range of MLT. Both of these results are in line with previous studies on partial ring extent. The magnitude of the current density, however, reveals a distinct asymmetry: growing from 10 to 27 nAm−2 as azimuth reduces from about 12:00MLT to 03:00 and falling from 20 to 10 nAm−2 less steadily as azimuth reduces from 24:00 to 12:00MLT. This result has not been reported before and we suggest it could reflect a number of effects. Firstly, we argue it is consistent with the operation of region-2 field aligned-currents (FACs), which are expected to flow upward into the ring current around 09:00MLT and downward out of the ring current around 14:00MLT. Secondly, we note that it is also consistent with a possible asymmetry in the radial distribution profile of current density (resulting in higher peak at 4– 4.5RE). We note that part of the enhanced current could reflect an increase in the mean AE activity (during the periods in which Cluster samples those MLT).

Biases in the distribution of bilateral aid: a regional decomposition analysis

This article investigates income and population biases in the distribution of aid and decomposes recipients by geographic region. Previous analyses aggregate recipients and assume biases have an equal impact. Results demonstrate that although while a bias towards middle-income and medium-sized countries persists in the full sample, the extent of such biases differs significantly by region.

Distribution of esterase activity in porcine ear skin, and the effects of freezing and heat separation

Porcine ear skin is widely used to study skin permeation and absorption of ester compounds, whose permeation and absorption profiles may be directly influenced by in situ skin esterase activity. Importantly, esterase distribution and activity in porcine ear skin following common protocols of skin handling and storage have not been characterised. Thus, we have compared the distribution and hydrolytic activity of esterases in freshly excised, frozen, heated and explanted porcine ear skin. Using an esterase staining kit, esterase activity was found to be localised in the stratum corneum and viable epidermis. Under frozen storage and a common heating protocol of epidermal sheet separation, esterase staining in the skin visibly diminished. This was confirmed by a quantitative assay using HPLC to monitor the hydrolysis of aspirin, in freshly excised, frozen or heated porcine ear skin. Compared to vehicle-only control, the rate of aspirin hydrolysis was approximately three-fold higher in the presence of freshly excised skin, but no different in the presence of frozen or heated skin. Therefore, frozen and heat-separated porcine ear skin should not be used to study the permeation of ester-containing permeants, in particular co-drugs and pro-drugs, whose hydrolysis or degradation can be modulated by skin esterases.

The role of the international cocoa germplasm database and the international cocoa quarantine centre in information management and distribution of cocoa genetic resources

A range of physiological parameters (canopy light transmission, canopy shape, leaf size, flowering and flushing intensity) were measured from the International Clone Trial, typically over the course of two years. Data were collected from six locations, these being: Brazil, Ecuador, Trinidad, Venezuela, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Canopy shape varied significantly between clones, although it showed little variation between locations. Genotypic variation in leaf size was differentially affected by the growth location; such differences appeared to underlie a genotype by environment interaction in relation to canopy light transmission. Flushing data were recorded at monthly intervals over the course of a year. Within each location, a significant interaction was observed between genotype and time of year, suggesting that some genotypes respond to a greater extent than others to environmental stimuli. A similar interaction was observed for flowering data, where significant correlations were found between flowering intensity and temperature in Brazil and flowering intensity and rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire. The results demonstrate the need for local evaluation of cocoa clones and also suggest that the management practices for particular planting material may need to be fine-tuned to the location in which they are cultivated.

Moderate drought alters biomass and depth distribution of fine roots in Norway spruce

A rain shelter experiment was conducted in a 90-year-old Norway spruce stand, in the Kysucké Beskydy Mts (Slovakia). Three rain shelters were constructed in the stand to prevent the rainfall from reaching the soil and to reduce water availability in the rhizosphere. Fine root biomass and necromass were repeatedly measured throughout a growing season by soil coring. We established the quantities of fine root biomass (live) and necromass (dead) at soil depths of 0-5, 5-15, 15-25, and 25-35 cm. Significant differences in soil moisture contents between control and drought plots were found in the top 15 cm of soil after 20 weeks of rainfall manipulation (lasting from early June to late October). Our observations show that even relatively light drought decreased total fine root biomass from 272.0 to 242.8 g m-2 and increased the amount of necromass from 79.2 to 101.2 g m-2 in the top 35 cm of soil. Very fine roots, i.e. those with diameter up to 1 mm, were more affected than total fine roots defined as 0-2 mm. The effect of reduced water availability was depth-specific, as a result we observed a modification of vertical distribution of fine roots. More roots in drought treatment were produced in the wetter soil horizons at 25-35 cm depth than at the surface. We conclude that fine and very fine root systems of Norway spruce have the capacity to re-allocate resources to roots at different depths in response to environmental signals, resulting in changes in necromass to biomass ratio.

Sequence analysis and distribution of an IS3-like insertion element isolated from Salmonella enteritidis

The nucleotide sequence of a 3 kb region immediately upstream of the sef operon operon of Salmonella enteritidis was determined. A 1230 base pair insertion sequence which shared sequence identity (> 75%) with members of the IS3 family was revealed. This element, designated IS1230, had almost identical (90% identity) terminal inverted repeats to Escherichia coli IS3 but unlike other IS3-like sequences lacked the two characteristic open reading frames which encode the putative transposase. S. enteritidis possessed only one copy of this insertion sequence although Southern hybridisation analysis of restriction digests of genomic DNA revealed another fragment located in a region different from the sef operon which hybridised weakly which suggested the presence of an IS1230 homologue. The distribution of IS1230 and IS1230-like elements was shown to be widespread amongst salmonellas and the patterns of restriction fragments which hybridised differed significantly between Salmonella serotypes and it is suggested that IS1230 has potential for development as a differential diagnostic tool.

Volume-based size distribution of accumulation and coarse particles (PM0.1–10) from cooking fume during oil heating

Particulate matter generated during the cooking process has been identified as one of the major problems of indoor air quality and indoor environmental health. Reliable assessment of exposure to cooking-generated particles requires accurate information of emission characteristics especially the size distribution. This study characterizes the volume/mass-based size distribution of the fume particles at the oil-heating stage for the typical Chinese-style cooking in a laboratory kitchen. A laser-diffraction size analyzer is applied to measure the volume frequency of fume particles ranged from 0.1 to 10 μm, which contribute to most mass proportion in PM2.5 and PM10. Measurements show that particle emissions have little dependence on the types of vegetable oil used but have a close relationship with the heating temperature. It is found that volume frequency of fume particles in the range of 1.0–4.0 μm accounts for nearly 100% of PM0.1–10 with the mode diameter 2.7 μm, median diameter 2.6 μm, Sauter mean diameter 3.0 μm, DeBroukere mean diameter 3.2 μm, and distribution span 0.48. Such information on emission characteristics obtained in this study can be possibly used to improve the assessment of indoor air quality due to PM0.1–10 in the kitchen and residential flat.

Distribution of research gains in multistage production systems: further results

The "marketing" sector in Muth's single-stage model is disaggregated in to two sequential stages: "processing" and "distribution. "Comparative statics are used to derive necessary and sufficient conditions for farmers to gain from downstream research. The farm benefits are shown to depend crucially on the stage in "marketing" to which research is directed.

Describing seasonal variability in the distribution of daily effective temperatures for 1985-2009 compared to 1904-1984 for De Bilt, Holland

This paper proposes a method for describing the distribution of observed temperatures on any day of the year such that the distribution and summary statistics of interest derived from the distribution vary smoothly through the year. The method removes the noise inherent in calculating summary statistics directly from the data thus easing comparisons of distributions and summary statistics between different periods. The method is demonstrated using daily effective temperatures (DET) derived from observations of temperature and wind speed at De Bilt, Holland. Distributions and summary statistics are obtained from 1985 to 2009 and compared to the period 1904–1984. A two-stage process first obtains parameters of a theoretical probability distribution, in this case the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, which describes the distribution of DET on any day of the year. Second, linear models describe seasonal variation in the parameters. Model predictions provide parameters of the GEV distribution, and therefore summary statistics, that vary smoothly through the year. There is evidence of an increasing mean temperature, a decrease in the variability in temperatures mainly in the winter and more positive skew, more warm days, in the summer. In the winter, the 2% point, the value below which 2% of observations are expected to fall, has risen by 1.2 °C, in the summer the 98% point has risen by 0.8 °C. Medians have risen by 1.1 and 0.9 °C in winter and summer, respectively. The method can be used to describe distributions of future climate projections and other climate variables. Further extensions to the methodology are suggested.