Quantifying the value of improved wind energy forecasts in a pool-based electricity market

This work illustrates the influence of wind forecast errors on system costs, wind curtailment and generator dispatch in a system with high wind penetration. Realistic wind forecasts of different specified accuracy levels are created using an auto-regressive moving average model and these are then used in the creation of day-ahead unit commitment schedules. The schedules are generated for a model of the 2020 Irish electricity system with 33% wind penetration using both stochastic and deterministic approaches. Improvements in wind forecast accuracy are demonstrated to deliver: (i) clear savings in total system costs for deterministic and, to a lesser extent, stochastic scheduling; (ii) a decrease in the level of wind curtailment, with close agreement between stochastic and deterministic scheduling; and (iii) a decrease in the dispatch of open cycle gas turbine generation, evident with deterministic, and to a lesser extent, with stochastic scheduling.

Chicana poetics: genre and style in Gloria Anzaldúa and Lorna Dee Cervantes

This thesis conducts a formal study of the poetry of Gloria Anzaldúa and Lorna Dee Cervantes, placing their work in dialogue with genre and style. These two Chicana poets are exemplary of politicised experimentation with poetics, underpinned by a keen awareness of the rich history of form, genre and style. In the work of each poet, two poetic modes are examined: one traditional, and one experimental. Anzaldúa’s uses of the dramatic monologue as a border genre, and her construction of [auto]poetics, stemming from her multi-genre, autobiographical approach to writing, are considered. Cervantes’s complex approach to the construction of docupoetics that achieves a depth of field in terms of merging a multidimensional approach to aesthetics with highly politicised transnational content, as well as her engagement with the longstanding poetic of elegy via various formal points of entry, is investigated. These poetic modes are primarily explored via close readings, supported by a multidisciplinary framework that includes Anzaldúa’s feminist theories of identity and writing, abjection theory, postcolonialism, and transnationalism. Overall, these four key areas demonstrate the ways in which aesthetics is a crucial consideration in the exploration of the broader issues of content and context in Chicana poetry.

Essays on Vietnam’s Financial Reforms: Foreign Exchange Statistics and Evidence of Long-Run Equilibrium

In this paper, we examine exchange rates in Vietnam’s transitional economy. Evidence of long-run equilibrium are established in most cases through a single co-integrating vector among endogenous variables that determine the real exchange rates. This supports relative PPP in which ECT of the system can be combined linearly into a stationary process, reducing deviation from PPP in the long run. Restricted coefficient vectors ß’ = (1, 1, -1) for real exchange rates of currencies in question are not rejected. This empirics of relative PPP adds to found evidences by many researchers, including Flre et al. (1999), Lee (1999), Johnson (1990), Culver and Papell (1999), Cuddington and Liang (2001). Instead of testing for different time series on a common base currency, we use different base currencies (USD, GBP, JPY and EUR). By doing so we want to know the whether theory may posit significant differences against one currency? We have found consensus, given inevitable technical differences, even with smallerdata sample for EUR. Speeds of convergence to PPP and adjustment are faster compared to results from other researches for developed economies, using both observed and bootstrapped HL measures. Perhaps, a better explanation is the adjustment from hyperinflation period, after which the theory indicates that adjusting process actually accelerates. We observe that deviation appears to have been large in early stages of the reform, mostly overvaluation. Over time, its correction took place leading significant deviations to gradually disappear.

Déficits immunitaires primaires: diagnostic, prise en charge, quelques perspectives.

Severe primary immunodeficiencies (PID) are rare; their global incidence is comparable to that of childhood leukemia; they include more than 100 different entities. Clinical manifestations are: unusually severe or frequent infections or infections that do not respond to adequate treatment; an increased risk of certain malignancies; sometimes auto-immune manifestations. Delayed diagnosis and management of PID can lead to severe and irreversible complications or to death. PID can become manifest only in the adult; in common variable immune deficiency, the median age at diagnosis is between the 2nd and the 3rd decade of life. PID are often transmitted genetically; recent progresses in molecular biology have allowed more precise and earlier, including antenatal, diagnosis. Molecular treatment of 3 infants with a severe immunodeficiency has recently been achieved in April 2000. Those progresses were mostly based on the study of immunodeficiency databases. We present here the work of a Belgian group specialized in PID; meetings have started in June 1997. This group establishes guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of PID, adapted to the local situation. The elaboration of a national register of PID is also underway; this has to provide all guaranties of anonymity to patients and families. Such a register already exists at the European level; it has provided the basis for new diagnostic and therapeutic possibilities. The inclusion of Belgian data in this register should allow essential progresses essential for our patients.

Intérêt clinique de la recherche des auto-anticorps

info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Correcting the errors: Volatility forecast evaluation using high-frequency data and realized volatilities

We develop general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy-to-implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing literature can result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return volatility predictability.

Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances

This paper considers forecasting the conditional mean and variance from a single-equation dynamic model with autocorrelated disturbances following an ARMA process, and innovations with time-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity as represented by a linear GARCH process. Expressions for the minimum MSE predictor and the conditional MSE are presented. We also derive the formula for all the theoretical moments of the prediction error distribution from a general dynamic model with GARCH(1, 1) innovations. These results are then used in the construction of ex ante prediction confidence intervals by means of the Cornish-Fisher asymptotic expansion. An empirical example relating to the uncertainty of the expected depreciation of foreign exchange rates illustrates the usefulness of the results. © 1992.

Quality control autophagy: a joint effort of ubiquitin, protein deacetylase and actin cytoskeleton.

Autophagy has been predominantly studied as a nonselective self-digestion process that recycles macromolecules and produces energy in response to starvation. However, autophagy independent of nutrient status has long been known to exist. Recent evidence suggests that this form of autophagy enforces intracellular quality control by selectively disposing of aberrant protein aggregates and damaged organelles--common denominators in various forms of neurodegenerative diseases. By definition, this form of autophagy, termed quality-control (QC) autophagy, must be different from nutrient-regulated autophagy in substrate selectivity, regulation and function. We have recently identified the ubiquitin-binding deacetylase, HDAC6, as a key component that establishes QC. HDAC6 is not required for autophagy activation per se; rather, it is recruited to ubiquitinated autophagic substrates where it stimulates autophagosome-lysosome fusion by promoting F-actin remodeling in a cortactin-dependent manner. Remarkably, HDAC6 and cortactin are dispensable for starvation-induced autophagy. These findings reveal that autophagosomes associated with QC are molecularly and biochemically distinct from those associated with starvation autophagy, thereby providing a new molecular framework to understand the emerging complexity of autophagy and therapeutic potential of this unique machinery.

Oil and gas projects in the Western Amazon: threats to wilderness, biodiversity, and indigenous peoples.

BACKGROUND: The western Amazon is the most biologically rich part of the Amazon basin and is home to a great diversity of indigenous ethnic groups, including some of the world's last uncontacted peoples living in voluntary isolation. Unlike the eastern Brazilian Amazon, it is still a largely intact ecosystem. Underlying this landscape are large reserves of oil and gas, many yet untapped. The growing global demand is leading to unprecedented exploration and development in the region. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We synthesized information from government sources to quantify the status of oil development in the western Amazon. National governments delimit specific geographic areas or "blocks" that are zoned for hydrocarbon activities, which they may lease to state and multinational energy companies for exploration and production. About 180 oil and gas blocks now cover approximately 688,000 km(2) of the western Amazon. These blocks overlap the most species-rich part of the Amazon. We also found that many of the blocks overlap indigenous territories, both titled lands and areas utilized by peoples in voluntary isolation. In Ecuador and Peru, oil and gas blocks now cover more than two-thirds of the Amazon. In Bolivia and western Brazil, major exploration activities are set to increase rapidly. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Without improved policies, the increasing scope and magnitude of planned extraction means that environmental and social impacts are likely to intensify. We review the most pressing oil- and gas-related conservation policy issues confronting the region. These include the need for regional Strategic Environmental Impact Assessments and the adoption of roadless extraction techniques. We also consider the conflicts where the blocks overlap indigenous peoples' territories.

Can exchange rates forecast commodity prices?

We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have surprisingly robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policy makers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We offer a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward-looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances. © 2010 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.