970 resultados para DSGE, Monte Carlo, Misspecification


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Purpose The purpose of this investigation was to assess the angular dependence of a commercial optically stimulated luminescence dosimeter (OSLD) dosimetry system in MV x-ray beams at depths beyondd max and to find ways to mitigate this dependence for measurements in phantoms. Methods Two special holders were designed which allow a dosimeter to be rotated around the center of its sensitive volume. The dosimeter's sensitive volume is a disk, 5 mm in diameter and 0.2 mm thick. The first holder rotates the disk in the traditional way. It positions the disk perpendicular to the beam (gantry pointing to the floor) in the initial position (0°). When the holder is rotated the angle of the disk towards the beam increases until the disk is parallel with the beam (“edge on,” 90°). This is referred to as Setup 1. The second holder offers a new, alternative measurement position. It positions the disk parallel to the beam for all angles while rotating around its center (Setup 2). Measurements with five to ten dosimeters per point were carried out for 6 MV at 3 and 10 cm depth. Monte Carlo simulations using GEANT4 were performed to simulate the response of the active detector material for several angles. Detector and housing were simulated in detail based on microCT data and communications with the manufacturer. Various material compositions and an all-water geometry were considered. Results For the traditional Setup 1 the response of the OSLD dropped on average by 1.4% ± 0.7% (measurement) and 2.1% ± 0.3% (Monte Carlo simulation) for the 90° orientation compared to 0°. Monte Carlo simulations also showed a strong dependence of the effect on the composition of the sensitive layer. Assuming the layer to completely consist of the active material (Al2O3) results in a 7% drop in response for 90° compared to 0°. Assuming the layer to be completely water, results in a flat response within the simulation uncertainty of about 1%. For the new Setup 2, measurements and Monte Carlo simulations found the angular dependence of the dosimeter to be below 1% and within the measurement uncertainty. Conclusions The dosimeter system exhibits a small angular dependence of approximately 2% which needs to be considered for measurements involving other than normal incident beams angles. This applies in particular to clinicalin vivo measurements where the orientation of the dosimeter is dictated by clinical circumstances and cannot be optimized as otherwise suggested here. When measuring in a phantom, the proposed new setup should be considered. It changes the orientation of the dosimeter so that a coplanar beam arrangement always hits the disk shaped detector material from the thin side and thereby reduces the angular dependence of the response to within the measurement uncertainty of about 1%. This improvement makes the dosimeter more attractive for clinical measurements with multiple coplanar beams in phantoms, as the overall measurement uncertainty is reduced. Similarly, phantom based postal audits can transition from the traditional TLD to the more accurate and convenient OSLD.

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This paper demonstrates the procedures for probabilistic assessment of a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, to elucidate the modeling uncertainty using the Monte Carlo technique. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the influence of herbicide characteristics and related soil properties on model outputs using four popular rice herbicides: mefenacet, pretilachlor, bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron. Uncertainty quantification showed that the simulated concentrations in paddy water varied more than those of paddy soil. This tendency decreased as the simulation proceeded to a later period but remained important for herbicides having either high solubility or a high 1st-order dissolution rate. The sensitivity analysis indicated that PCPF-1 parameters requiring careful determination are primarily those involve with herbicide adsorption (the organic carbon content, the bulk density and the volumetric saturated water content), secondary parameters related with herbicide mass distribution between paddy water and soil (1st-order desorption and dissolution rates) and lastly, those involving herbicide degradations. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

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Uncertainty assessments of herbicide losses from rice paddies in Japan associated with local meteorological conditions and water management practices were performed using a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, under the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation scheme. First, MC simulations were conducted for five different cities with a prescribed water management scenario and a 10-year meteorological dataset of each city. The effectiveness of water management was observed regarding the reduction of pesticide runoff. However, a greater potential of pesticide runoff remained in Western Japan. Secondly, an extended analysis was attempted to evaluate the effects of local water management and meteorological conditions between the Chikugo River basin and the Sakura River basin using uncertainty inputs processed from observed water management data. The results showed that because of more severe rainfall events, significant pesticide runoff occurred in the Chikugo River basin even when appropriate irrigation practices were implemented. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

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BACKGROUND: Monitoring studies revealed high concentrations of pesticides in the drainage canal of paddy fields. It is important to have a way to predict these concentrations in different management scenarios as an assessment tool. A simulation model for predicting the pesticide concentration in a paddy block (PCPF-B) was evaluated and then used to assess the effect of water management practices for controlling pesticide runoff from paddy fields. RESULTS: The PCPF-B model achieved an acceptable performance. The model was applied to a constrained probabilistic approach using the Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the best management practices for reducing runoff of pretilachlor into the canal. The probabilistic model predictions using actual data of pesticide use and hydrological data in the canal showed that the water holding period (WHP) and the excess water storage depth (EWSD) effectively reduced the loss and concentration of pretilachlor from paddy fields to the drainage canal. The WHP also reduced the timespan of pesticide exposure in the drainage canal. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that: (1) the WHP be applied for as long as possible, but for at least 7 days, depending on the pesticide and field conditions; (2) an EWSD greater than 2 cm be maintained to store substantial rainfall in order to prevent paddy runoff, especially during the WHP.

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Neutron diffraction measurement is carried out on GexSe1-x glasses, where 0.1 less than or equal to x less than or equal to 0.4, in a Q interval of 0.55-13.8 Angstrom(-1). The first sharp diffraction peak (FSDP) in the structure factor, S(Q), shows a systematic increase in the intensity and shifts to a lower Q with increasing Ge concentration. The coherence length of FSDP increases with x and becomes maximum for 0.33 less than or equal to x less than or equal to 0.4. The Monte-Carlo method, due to Soper, is used to generate S(Q) and also the pair correlation function, g(r). The generated S(Q) is in agreement with the experimental data for all x. Analysis of the first four peaks in the total correlation function, T(r), shows that the short range order in GeSe2 glass is due to Ge(Se-1/2)(4) tetrahedra, in agreement with earlier reports. Se-rich glasses contain Se-chains which are cross-linked with Ge(Se-1/2)(4) tetrahedra. Ge-2(Se-1/2)(6) molecular units are the basic structural units in Ge-rich, x = 0.4, glass. For x = 0.2, 0.33 and 0.4 there is evidence for some of the tetrahedra being in an edge-shared configuration. The number of edge-shared tetrahedra in these glasses increase with increasing Ge content.

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We consider a two timescale model of learning by economic agents wherein active or 'ontogenetic' learning by individuals takes place on a fast scale and passive or 'phylogenetic' learning by society as a whole on a slow scale, each affecting the evolution of the other. The former is modelled by the Monte Carlo dynamics of physics, while the latter is modelled by the replicator dynamics of evolutionary biology. Various qualitative aspects of the dynamics are studied in some simple cases, both analytically and numerically, and its role as a useful modelling device is emphasized.

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The topography of the free energy landscape in phase space of a dense hard-sphere system characterized by a discretized free energy functional of the Ramakishnan-Yussouff form is investigated numerically using a specially devised Monte Carlo procedure. We locate a considerable number of glassy local minima of the free energy and analyze the distributions of the free energy at a minimum and an appropriately defined phase-space "distance" between different minima. We find evidence for the existence of pairs of closely related glassy minima("two-level systems"). We also investigate the way the system makes transitions as it moves from the basin of attraction of a minimum to that of another one after a start under nonequilibrium conditions. This allows us to determine the effective height of free energy barriers that separate a glassy minimum from the others. The dependence of the height of free energy barriers on the density is investigated in detail. The general appearance of the free energy landscape resembles that of a putting green: relatively deep minima separated by a fairly flat structure. We discuss the connection of our results with the Vogel-Fulcher law and relate our observations to other work on the glass transition.

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We study by means of experiments and Monte Carlo simulations, the scattering of light in random media, to determine the distance up to which photons travel along almost undeviated paths within a scattering medium, and are therefore capable of casting a shadow of an opaque inclusion embedded within the medium. Such photons are isolated by polarisation discrimination wherein the plane of linear polarisation of the input light is continuously rotated and the polarisation preserving component of the emerging light is extracted by means of a Fourier transform. This technique is a software implementation of lock-in detection. We find that images may be recovered to a depth far in excess of that predicted by the diffusion theory of photon propagation. To understand our experimental results, we perform Monte Carlo simulations to model the random walk behaviour of the multiply scattered photons. We present a. new definition of a diffusing photon in terms of the memory of its initial direction of propagation, which we then quantify in terms of an angular correlation function. This redefinition yields the penetration depth of the polarisation preserving photons. Based on these results, we have formulated a model to understand shadow formation in a turbid medium, the predictions of which are in good agreement with our experimental results.

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Possible integration of Single Electron Transistor (SET) with CMOS technology is making the study of semiconductor SET more important than the metallic SET and consequently, the study of energy quantization effects on semiconductor SET devices and circuits is gaining significance. In this paper, for the first time, the effects of energy quantization on SET inverter performance are examined through analytical modeling and Monte Carlo simulations. It is observed that the primary effect of energy quantization is to change the Coulomb Blockade region and drain current of SET devices and as a result affects the noise margin, power dissipation, and the propagation delay of SET inverter. A new model for the noise margin of SET inverter is proposed which includes the energy quantization effects. Using the noise margin as a metric, the robustness of SET inverter is studied against the effects of energy quantization. It is shown that SET inverter designed with CT : CG = 1/3 (where CT and CG are tunnel junction and gate capacitances respectively) offers maximum robustness against energy quantization.

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The LISA Parameter Estimation Taskforce was formed in September 2007 to provide the LISA Project with vetted codes, source distribution models and results related to parameter estimation. The Taskforce's goal is to be able to quickly calculate the impact of any mission design changes on LISA's science capabilities, based on reasonable estimates of the distribution of astrophysical sources in the universe. This paper describes our Taskforce's work on massive black-hole binaries (MBHBs). Given present uncertainties in the formation history of MBHBs, we adopt four different population models, based on (i) whether the initial black-hole seeds are small or large and (ii) whether accretion is efficient or inefficient at spinning up the holes. We compare four largely independent codes for calculating LISA's parameter-estimation capabilities. All codes are based on the Fisher-matrix approximation, but in the past they used somewhat different signal models, source parametrizations and noise curves. We show that once these differences are removed, the four codes give results in extremely close agreement with each other. Using a code that includes both spin precession and higher harmonics in the gravitational-wave signal, we carry out Monte Carlo simulations and determine the number of events that can be detected and accurately localized in our four population models.