Multilateral Trade and Agricultural Policy Reforms in Sugar Markets, September 2005

We analyze the impact of trade liberalization, removal of production subsidies, and elimination of consumption distortions in world sugar markets using a partial-equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 27% price increase while the removal of all trade and production distortions induces a 48% increase by 2011/12 relative to the baseline. Aggregate trade expands moderately, but location of production and trade patterns change substantially. Protectionist OECD countries (the EU, Japan, the US) experience an import expansion or export reduction and significant contraction in production in unfettered markets. Competitive producers in both OECD countries (Australia) and non-OECD countries (Brazil, Cuba), and even some protected producers (Indonesia, Turkey), expand production when all distortions are removed. Consumption distortions have marginal impacts on world markets and location of production. We discuss the significance of these results in the context of mounting pressures to increase market access in highly protected OECD countries and the impact on non-OECD countries.

Cardiovascular patterns associated with appetitive and defensive activation during affective picture viewing

In this study we assessed blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), stroke volume (SV), cardiac output (CO), and total peripheral resistance (TPR) in response to 13 picture series in 37 participants in order to investigate their hemodynamic response associated with activation of the appetitive and defensive motivational systems underlying emotional experience. BP and SV, but not TPR, increased with increasing self-rated arousal, whereas HR decelerated more in response to negative than positive and neutral pictures. These findings suggest that modulation of the cardiovascular response to pictures is primarily myocardial. The observed response pattern is consistent with a configuration of cardiac sympathetic-parasympathetic coactivation. The relationships between self-rated arousal, BP, and SV were mainly exhibited by men, suggesting that increases in the sympathetic inotropic effect to the heart with self-rated arousal may be larger in men than in women.

Rates of cultural change and patterns of cultural accumulation in stochastic models of social transmission.

Cultural variation in a population is affected by the rate of occurrence of cultural innovations, whether such innovations are preferred or eschewed, how they are transmitted between individuals in the population, and the size of the population. An innovation, such as a modification in an attribute of a handaxe, may be lost or may become a property of all handaxes, which we call "fixation of the innovation." Alternatively, several innovations may attain appreciable frequencies, in which case properties of the frequency distribution-for example, of handaxe measurements-is important. Here we apply the Moran model from the stochastic theory of population genetics to study the evolution of cultural innovations. We obtain the probability that an initially rare innovation becomes fixed, and the expected time this takes. When variation in cultural traits is due to recurrent innovation, copy error, and sampling from generation to generation, we describe properties of this variation, such as the level of heterogeneity expected in the population. For all of these, we determine the effect of the mode of social transmission: conformist, where there is a tendency for each naïve newborn to copy the most popular variant; pro-novelty bias, where the newborn prefers a specific variant if it exists among those it samples; one-to-many transmission, where the variant one individual carries is copied by all newborns while that individual remains alive. We compare our findings with those predicted by prevailing theories for rates of cultural change and the distribution of cultural variation.

Current drug discovery strategies against arenavirus infections.

Arenaviruses are a large group of emerging viruses including several causative agents of severe hemorrhagic fevers with high mortality in man. Considering the number of people affected and the currently limited therapeutic options, novel efficacious therapeutics against arenaviruses are urgently needed. Over the past decade, significant advances in knowledge about the basic virology of arenaviruses have been accompanied by the development of novel therapeutics targeting different steps of the arenaviral life cycle. High-throughput, small-molecule screens identified potent and broadly active inhibitors of arenavirus entry that were instrumental for the dissection of unique features of arenavirus fusion. Novel inhibitors of arenavirus replication have been successfully tested in animal models and hold promise for application in humans. Late in the arenavirus life cycle, the proteolytic processing of the arenavirus envelope glycoprotein precursor and cellular factors critically involved virion assembly and budding provide further promising 'druggable' targets for novel therapeutics to combat human arenavirus infection.

Alliance patterns over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy: The shape of productive relationships.

The shape of alliance processes over the course of psychotherapy has already been studied in several process-outcome studies on very brief psychotherapy. The present study applies the shape-of-change methodology to short-term dynamic psychotherapies and complements this method with hierarchical linear modeling. A total of 50 psychotherapies of up to 40 sessions were included. Alliance was measured at the end of each session. The results indicate that a linear progression model is most adequate. Three main patterns were found: stable, linear, and quadratic growth. The linear growth pattern, along with the slope parameter, was related to treatment outcome. This study sheds additional light on alliance process research, underscores the importance of linear alliance progression for outcome, and also fosters a better understanding of its limitations.

Patterns of plant subcellular responses to successful oomycete infections reveal differences in host cell reprogramming and endocytic trafficking.

Adapted filamentous pathogens such as the oomycetes Hyaloperonospora arabidopsidis (Hpa) and Phytophthora infestans (Pi) project specialized hyphae, the haustoria, inside living host cells for the suppression of host defence and acquisition of nutrients. Accommodation of haustoria requires reorganization of the host cell and the biogenesis of a novel host cell membrane, the extrahaustorial membrane (EHM), which envelops the haustorium separating the host cell from the pathogen. Here, we applied live-cell imaging of fluorescent-tagged proteins labelling a variety of membrane compartments and investigated the subcellular changes associated with accommodating oomycete haustoria in Arabidopsis and N. benthamiana. Plasma membrane-resident proteins differentially localized to the EHM. Likewise, secretory vesicles and endosomal compartments surrounded Hpa and Pi haustoria revealing differences between these two oomycetes, and suggesting a role for vesicle trafficking pathways for the pathogen-controlled biogenesis of the EHM. The latter is supported by enhanced susceptibility of mutants in endosome-mediated trafficking regulators. These observations point at host subcellular defences and specialization of the EHM in a pathogen-specific manner. Defence-associated haustorial encasements, a double-layered membrane that grows around mature haustoria, were frequently observed in Hpa interactions. Intriguingly, all tested plant proteins accumulated at Hpa haustorial encasements suggesting the general recruitment of default vesicle trafficking pathways to defend pathogen access. Altogether, our results show common requirements of subcellular changes associated with oomycete biotrophy, and highlight differences between two oomycete pathogens in reprogramming host cell vesicle trafficking for haustoria accommodation. This provides a framework for further dissection of the pathogen-triggered reprogramming of host subcellular changes.

Simple estimation of incident HIV infection rates in notification cohorts based on window periods of algorithms for evaluation of line-immunoassay result patterns.

BACKGROUND: Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. METHODS: We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship 'Prevalence = Incidence x Duration' in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship 'incident = true incident + false incident' and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. RESULTS: Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R(2) = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. CONCLUSIONS: IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.