Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.

On the critical thickness for non-localized to localized plastic flow transition in metallic glasses: A molecular dynamics study

Molecular dynamics simulations were employed to investigate the specimen thickness-dependent tensile behavior of a series of Cu(x)Z(100-x) (x = 20, 40, 50, 64 and 80 at%) metallic glass (MG) films, with a particular focus on the critical thickness, tc, below which non-localized plastic flow takes place. The simulation results reveal that while the transition occurs in all the alloys examined, t(c) is sensitive to the composition. We rationalize t(c) by postulating that the strain energy stored in the sample at the onset of plastic deformation has to be sufficient for the formation of shear bands. The composition-dependence of t(c) was found to correlate with the average activation energy of the atomic level plastic deformation events. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of sine-triangle and zero-sequence injection modulation schemes for split-phase induction motor drive

A split-phase induction motor is fed from two three-phase voltage source inverters for speed control. This study analyses carrier-comparison based pulse width modulation (PWM) schemes for a split-phase motor drive, from a space-vector perspective. Sine-triangle PWM, one zero-sequence injection PWM where the same zero-sequence signal is used for both the inverters, and another zero-sequence injection PWM where different zero-sequence signals are employed for the two inverters are considered. The set of voltage vectors applied, the sequence in which the voltage vectors are applied, and the resulting current ripple vector are analysed for all the PWM methods. Besides all the PWM methods are compared in terms of dc bus utilisation. For the same three-phase sine reference, the PWM method with different zero-sequence signals for the two inverters is found to employ a set of vectors different from the other methods. Both analysis and experimental results show that this method results in lower total harmonic distortion and higher dc bus utilisation than the other two PWM methods.

Critical investigation of high performance spin-coated high-kappa titania thin films based MOS capacitor

We report the tunable dielectric constant of titania films with low leakage current density. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) films of three different thicknesses (36, 63 and 91 nm) were deposited by the consecutive steps of solution preparation, spin-coating, drying, and firing at different temperatures. The problem of poor adhesion between Si substrate and TiO2 insulating layer was resolved by using the plasma activation process. The surface roughness was found to increase with increasing thickness and annealing temperature. The electrical investigation was carried out using metal-oxide-semiconductor structure. The flat band voltage (V-FB), oxide trapped charge (Q(ot)), dielectric constant (kappa) and equivalent oxide thicknesses are calculated from capacitance-voltage (C-V) curves. The C-V characteristics indicate a thickness dependent dielectric constant. The dielectric constant increases from 31 to 78 as thickness increases from 36 to 91 nm. In addition to that the dielectric constant was found to be annealing temperature and frequency dependent. The films having thickness 91 nm and annealed at 600 A degrees C shows the low leakage current density. Our study provides a broad insight of the processing parameters towards the use of titania as high-kappa insulating layer, which might be useful in Si and polymer based flexible devices.

On the issues of resolving a low melting combination as a definite eutectic or an elusive cocrystal: A critical evaluation

Cocrystals and eutectics are different yet related crystalline multi-component adducts with diverse applications in pharmaceutical and materials fields. Recently, they were shown to be alternate products of cocrystallization experiments. Whereas a cocrystal shows distinct diffraction, spectroscopic and thermal signatures as compared to parent components, the hallmark of a eutectic is its low melting nature. However, in certain cases, there can be a problem when one resorts to design a cocrystal and assess its formation vis-A -vis a eutectic. In the absence of a gold standard method to make a cocrystal, it is often difficult to judge how exhaustive should the cocrystallization trials be to ensure the accomplishment of a desired/putative cocrystal. Further, a cocrystal can manifest with intermolecular interactions and/or crystal structure similar to that of its parent compounds such that the conventional diffraction and spectroscopic techniques will be of little help to conclusively infer the formation of cocrystal in the lack of single crystals. Such situations combined with low melting behavior of a combination brings the complication of resolving the combination as a cocrystal or eutectic since now both the adducts share common features. Based on the curious case of Caffeine-Benzoic acid combination, this study aims to unfold the intricate issues related to the design, formation and characterization of cocrystals and eutectics for a way forward. The utility of heteronuclear seeding methodology in establishing a given combination as a cocrystal-forming one or a eutectic-forming one in four known systems is appraised.

Increasing Critical Sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Large Earthquakes with Identified Stress Acclumulation Pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Experimental Evidence of Critical Sensitivity in Catastrophe

The paper presents an experimental study on critical sensitivity in rocks. Critical sensitivity means that the response of a system to external controlling variable may become significantly sensitive as the system approaches its catastrophic rupture point. It is found that the sensitivities measured by responses on three scales (sample scale, locally macroscopic scales and mesoscopic scale) display increase prior to catastrophic transition point. These experimental results do support the concept that critical sensitivity might be a common precursory feature of catastrophe. Furthermore, our previous theoretical model is extended to explore the fluctuations in critical sensitivity in the rock tests.

Mechanical effects of the self-organization of dislocations and related critical characteristics

The effects of the dislocation pattern formed due to the self-organization of the dislocations in crystals on the macroscopic hardening and dynamic internal friction (DIF) during deformation are studied. The classic dislocation models for the hardening and DIF corresponding to the homogeneous dislocation configuration are extended to the case for the non-homogeneous one. In addition, using the result of dislocation patterning deduced from the non-linear dlislocation dynamics model for single slip, the correlation between the dislocation pattern and hardening as well as DIF is obtained. It is shown that in the case of the tension with a constant strain rate, the bifurcation point of dislocation patterning corresponds to the turning point in the stress versus strain and DIF versus strain curves. This result along with the critical characteristics of the macroscopic behavior near the bifurcation point is microscopically and macroscopically in agreement with the experimental findings on mono-crystalline pure aluminum at temperatures around 0.5T(m). The present study suggests that measuring the DIF would be a sensitive and useful mechanical means in order to study the critical phenomenon of materials during deformation.

Two critical crack propagating velocities for PMMA fracture surface

Ultrasonic fractography and scanning electronic microscopy (SEM) are used to determine the direct relationship between the fracture surface morphology and the main crack velocity during the rapid rupture of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA). Two critical crack velocities are found for the fracture. Quasi-parabolic markings will appear when the crack speed exceeds the first critical speed. Crack propagating at speed above the second critical speed leaves a thicket of small branches penetrating the surface behind them. Both critical speeds are functions of the thickness of the specimens.

Load-Unload Response Ratio and Accelerating Moment/Energy Release Critical Region Scaling and Earthquake Prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

A New Ignition Criterion Based Upon a Critical Thermal Energy Density

It has long been known that various ignition criteria of energetic materials have been limited in applicability to small regions. In order to explore the physical nature of ignition, we calculated how much thermal energy per unit mass of energetic materials was absorbed under different external stimuli. Hence, data of several typical sensitivity tests were analyzed by order of magnitude estimation. Then a new concept on critical thermal energy density was formulated. Meanwhile, the chemical nature of ignition was probed into by chemical kinetics.

Characters of variation of LURR during the earthquake sequence of Xinjiang

The theory of the loading/unloading response ratio (LURR) was applied to the Jiashi earthquake sequence which occurred at the beginning of 1997 in Xinjiang, and found that, before the earthquakes with relatively high magnitudes In the sequence, the ratio showed anomalies of high values. That is to say, the LURR theory can be applied to the short-term earthquake prediction in some cases, especially in the early period after a strong earthquake, such as the forecasts for some strong earthquakes in the Jiashi sequence.

Simulation of the Load-Unload Response Ratio and Critical Sensitivity in the Lattice Solid Model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.