Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets

We address credit cycle dependent sovereign credit risk determinants. In our model, the spread determinants' magnitude is conditional on an unobservable endogenous sovereign credit cycle as represented by the underlying state of a Markov regime switching process. Our explanatory variables are motivated in the tradition of structural credit risk models and include changes in asset prices, interest rates, implied market volatility, gold price changes and foreign exchange rates. We examine daily frequency variations of U.S. dollar denominated Eurobond credit spreads of four major Latin American sovereign bond issuers (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) with liquid bond markets during March 2000 to June 2011. We find that spread determinants are statistically significant and consistent with theory, while their magnitude remarkably varies with the state of the credit cycle. Crisis states are characterized by high spread change uncertainty and high sensitivities with respect to the spread change determinants. We further document that not only changes of local currencies, but also changes of the Euro with respect to the U.S. dollar are significant spread drivers and argue that this is consistent with the sovereigns' ability to pay.

Metabolic profile analysis of zebrafish embryos

A growing goal in the field of metabolism is to determine the impact of genetics on different aspects of mitochondrial function. Understanding these relationships will help to understand the underlying etiology for a range of diseases linked with mitochondrial dysfunction, such as diabetes and obesity. Recent advances in instrumentation, has enabled the monitoring of distinct parameters of mitochondrial function in cell lines or tissue explants. Here we present a method for a rapid and sensitive analysis of mitochondrial function parameters in vivo during zebrafish embryonic development using the Seahorse bioscience XF 24 extracellular flux analyser. This protocol utilizes the Islet Capture microplates where a single embryo is placed in each well, allowing measurement of bioenergetics, including: (i) basal respiration; (ii) basal mitochondrial respiration (iii) mitochondrial respiration due to ATP turnover; (iv) mitochondrial uncoupled respiration or proton leak and (iv) maximum respiration. Using this approach embryonic zebrafish respiration parameters can be compared between wild type and genetically altered embryos (mutant, gene over-expression or gene knockdown) or those manipulated pharmacologically. It is anticipated that dissemination of this protocol will provide researchers with new tools to analyse the genetic basis of metabolic disorders in vivo in this relevant vertebrate animal model.

A profile of Australian adults who have discussed their posthumous organ donation wishes with family members

Next of kin who are aware of the deceased's organ donation wishes usually will honor those wishes, while next of kin who are unaware of these wishes typically withhold consent for posthumous donation. Encouraging individuals to communicate or register their organ donation wishes is therefore important. Using a sample of 409 participants, the current study sought to develop a profile of Australian adults who had communicated their organ donation wishes to family members. Christian participants and those who had a higher income were more likely to have communicated their donation wishes. Conversely, participants were less likely to have communicated their donation wishes if they were unregistered and undecided/opposed to organ donation, unregistered but willing to donate, or fearful of death. Finally, whether participants had communicated, registered, or communicated and registered their donation wishes was associated with their age, religion, attitude toward organ donation, and recall of media content about organ donation. Messages encouraging the communication of organ donation wishes to family members should therefore be targeted toward those individuals who are most likely to be receptive toward enacting this behavior.

An effective VAR planning to improve dynamic voltage profile of distribution networks with distributed wind generation

This paper proposes an effective VAR planning based on reactive power margin for the enhancement of dynamic voltage stability in distribution networks with distributed wind generation. The analysis is carried over a distribution test system representative of the Kumamoto area in Japan. The detailed mathematical modeling of the system is also presented. Firstly, this paper provides simulation results showing the effects of composite load on voltage dynamics in the distribution network through an accurate time-domain analysis. Then, a cost-effective combination of shunt capacitor bank and distribution static synchronous compensator (D-STATCOM) is selected to ensure fast voltage recovery after a sudden disturbance. The analysis shows that the proposed approach can reduce the size of compensating devices, which in turn, reduces the cost. It also reduces power loss of the system.

Voltage profile improvement for distributed wind generation using D-STATCOM

This paper presents the application of FACTS devices for the enhancement of dynamic voltage stability in distribution networks with distributed wind generation. The analysis is carried over a test distribution system representative of the Kumamoto area in Japan. The detailed mathematical modelling of the system is also presented. Firstly, this paper provides simulation results showing the effects of higher and lower penetration of distributed wind generation on the voltage dynamics in a faulted system. Then, a distribution static synchronous compensator (D-STATCOM) is used to improve the voltage profile of the system. This analysis shows that D-STATCOM has significant performance to improve the voltage dynamics of distribution system compared to shunt capacitor.

Impact of high wind penetration on the voltage profile of distribution systems

In this paper, simulation results showing the effect of lower and higher penetration of distributed wind generation on the voltage profile in distribution systems have been presented. The analysis is carried out over two distribution test systems. The detailed mathematical modeling of the system is also presented. It also investigates the small-signal stability of distribution systems using eigenvalue approach. The analyses show that voltage variation problems occur in different nodes of the distribution networks with an increase of penetration level. However, proper selection of dispersion level can improve the voltage profile of the distribution systems

Profiling for profit : a report on target marketing and profiling practices in the credit industry

This report examines how many businesses make significant investments to purchase and develop customer relationship management systems. Given such investments, information about these systems is not widely available, but some publicly available information gives indication of the extent, and purpose, of the use. Recognising that lenders use customer information and highly sophisticated systems to target their marketing strategies, is the first step towards ensuring that these practices are taken into account in the development of consumer policy and law reform. This research was funded by the consumer advisory panel of the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC).

Is lithium in a class of its own? A brief profile of its clinical use

Lithium is a unique and effective psychotropic agent with a long-standing history of clinical use yet it is increasingly overlooked in lieu of newer agents. The purpose of the present paper was to succinctly review the therapeutic profile of lithium particularly with respect to the treatment of mood disorders and consider its unique properties and clinical utility. A comprehensive literature review pertaining to lithium was undertaken using electronic database search engines to identify relevant clinical trials, meta-analyses and Cochrane reviews. In addition articles and book chapters known to the authors were carefully reviewed, and the authors appraised published guidelines. The evidence from these sources was rated using National Health and Medical Research Council evidence levels and synthesized according to phenotype and mood states. In addition, the authors have drawn upon published guidelines and their own clinical experience. Lithium has specificity for mood disorders with proven efficacy in the treatment of both unipolar depression and bipolar disorder. The recommendations are based predominantly on Level I evidence, but its clinical use has to be tempered against potential side-effects and the need for ongoing monitoring. In practice, lithium should be considered a first-line option in bipolar disorder, especially in prophylaxis and when onset of action is not an imperative. Lithium has been in use in modern medicine for 60 years and as such has been tried and tested across the full range of mood disorders. Arguably, lithium is the only true mood stabilizer and because of its unique properties is in a class of its own.

Modelling SME credit risk : a Thai empirical evidence

This paper develops and tests a model to predict small and medium enterprise (SME) financial distress based on empirical evidence from Thailand. A sample comprising 198 financial statements of non-financially distressed and 68 statements of financially distressed SMEs were used. A parametric t-test was conducted to establish differences between financial characteristics of the two groups of SMEs.

Results show statistically significant differences (t values significant at .001) between the two groups of SMEs in the financial ratios used for the study. Discriminant analysis was then conducted to develop a model for predicting the likelihood of an SME experiencing financial distress.

The model hits an accuracy level of 97%, which compares favourably with the probability of accurate classification by chance (i.e., 65% after adjusting for the unequal sample sizes of the two groups of SMEs). A test of the model with a new sample shows the validity of the model beyond the original sample, confirming that Thai SME financial distress is amenable to prediction to a statistically significant extent. The model is expected to serve SME managers and creditors in assessing financial health of SMEs before making important decisions. The results are also expected to inform policymakers in formulating economic policies concerning SMEs.