Computer simulations of pyroclastic flows from dome collapse

We present a method of simulating both the avalanche and surge components of pyroclastic flows generated by lava collapsing from a growing Pelean dome. This is used to successfully model the pyroclastic flows generated on 12 May 1996 by the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat. In simulating the avalanche component we use a simple 3-fold parameterisation of flow acceleration for which we choose values using an inverse method. The surge component is simulated by a 1D hydraulic balance of sedimentation of clasts and entrainment of air away from the avalanche source. We show how multiple simulations based on uncertainty of the starting conditions and parameters, specifically location and size (mass flux), could be used to map hazard zones.

Climate change and water in the UK: past changes and future prospects

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make

Geoffrey Hill and performative utterance

Utterance of a sentence in poetry can be performative, and explicitly so. The best-known of Geoffrey Hill’s critical essays denies this, but his own poetry demonstrates it. I clarify these claims and explain why they matter. What Hill denies illuminates anxieties about responsibility and commitment that poets and critics share with philosophers. What Hill demonstrates affords opportunities for mutual benefit between philosophy and criticism.

Determination of controls on Holocene barrier progradation through application of OSL dating: The Ilha Comprida Barrier example, Southeastern Brazil

Barrier development during the Holocene is studied using the example of the Ilha Comprida, Southeastern Brazil. Aerial photos, facies analysis, and optically stimulated luminescence dating are used to define the barrier emergence and evolution. Optically stimulated luminescence ages and facies successions indicate that the Ilha Comprida probably began as a Holocene transgressive barrier island 6000 years ago, just before the last relative sea-level maximum. Since then the barrier has progradated through the addition of curved beach ridges. Based on beach ridge alignments, six units of growth are identified with two growth directions, transverse and longitudinal. Rates of progradation with transverse growth vary from 0.13 to 4.6 m/year. Rates of longitudinal growth to NE range from 5.2 to 30 m/year. Variation in coastal progradation rates and sediment retention during the last 6000 years is compared with climate, physiography and relative sea-level changes. The physiography, represented by pre-Cenozoic hills, is the major control on sediment retention and alternation between longitudinal and transverse growth. Climate variations, such as the Little Ice Age event, apparently control the formation of ridges types: beach ridges, foredunes, and blowouts. These results allow the use of the Ilha Comprida Barrier as an example to analyze the major controls on barriers progradation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Obfuscation and Strict Online Anonymity

I consider the case for genuinely anonymous web searching. Big data seems to have it in for privacy. The story is well known, particularly since the dawn of the web. Vastly more personal information, monumental and quotidian, is gathered than in the pre-digital days. Once gathered it can be aggregated and analyzed to produce rich portraits, which in turn permit unnerving prediction of our future behavior. The new information can then be shared widely, limiting prospects and threatening autonomy. How should we respond? Following Nissenbaum (2011) and Brunton and Nissenbaum (2011 and 2013), I will argue that the proposed solutions—consent, anonymity as conventionally practiced, corporate best practices, and law—fail to protect us against routine surveillance of our online behavior. Brunton and Nissenbaum rightly maintain that, given the power imbalance between data holders and data subjects, obfuscation of one’s online activities is justified. Obfuscation works by generating “misleading, false, or ambiguous data with the intention of confusing an adversary or simply adding to the time or cost of separating good data from bad,” thus decreasing the value of the data collected (Brunton and Nissenbaum, 2011). The phenomenon is as old as the hills. Natural selection evidently blundered upon the tactic long ago. Take a savory butterfly whose markings mimic those of a toxic cousin. From the point of view of a would-be predator the data conveyed by the pattern is ambiguous. Is the bug lunch or potential last meal? In the light of the steep costs of a mistake, the savvy predator goes hungry. Online obfuscation works similarly, attempting for instance to disguise the surfer’s identity (Tor) or the nature of her queries (Howe and Nissenbaum 2009). Yet online obfuscation comes with significant social costs. First, it implies free riding. If I’ve installed an effective obfuscating program, I’m enjoying the benefits of an apparently free internet without paying the costs of surveillance, which are shifted entirely onto non-obfuscators. Second, it permits sketchy actors, from child pornographers to fraudsters, to operate with near impunity. Third, online merchants could plausibly claim that, when we shop online, surveillance is the price we pay for convenience. If we don’t like it, we should take our business to the local brick-and-mortar and pay with cash. Brunton and Nissenbaum have not fully addressed the last two costs. Nevertheless, I think the strict defender of online anonymity can meet these objections. Regarding the third, the future doesn’t bode well for offline shopping. Consider music and books. Intrepid shoppers can still find most of what they want in a book or record store. Soon, though, this will probably not be the case. And then there are those who, for perfectly good reasons, are sensitive about doing some of their shopping in person, perhaps because of their weight or sexual tastes. I argue that consumers should not have to pay the price of surveillance every time they want to buy that catchy new hit, that New York Times bestseller, or a sex toy.