The socioeconomics of food crop production and climate change vulnerability: a global scale quantitative analysis of how grain crops are sensitive to drought

Many studies warn that climate change may undermine global food security. Much work on this topic focuses on modelling crop-weather interactions but these models do not generally account for the ways in which socio-economic factors influence how harvests are affected by weather. To address this gap, this paper uses a quantitative harvest vulnerability index based on annual soil moisture and grain production data as the dependent variables in a Linear Mixed Effects model with national scale socio-economic data as independent variables for the period 1990-2005. Results show that rice, wheat and maize production in middle income countries were especially vulnerable to droughts. By contrast, harvests in countries with higher investments in agriculture (e.g higher amounts of fertilizer use) were less vulnerable to drought. In terms of differences between the world's major grain crops, factors that made rice and wheat crops vulnerable to drought were quite consistent, whilst those of maize crops varied considerably depending on the type of region. This is likely due to the fact that maize is produced under very different conditions worldwide. One recommendation for reducing drought vulnerability risks is coordinated development and adaptation policies, including institutional support that enables farmers to take proactive action.

Cognitive, affective and behavioural characteristics of mothers with anxiety disorders in the context of child anxiety disorder

Parental emotional distress, particularly high maternal anxiety, is one of the most consistent predictors of child anxiety treatment outcome. In order to identify the cognitive, affective and behavioural parenting characteristics of mothers of children with anxiety disorders who themselves have an anxiety disorder, we assessed the expectations and appraisals of 88 mothers of anxious children (44 not anxious (NONANX) and 44 with a current anxiety disorder (ANX)) before and after interacting with their 7-12 year old children. There were no observed differences in anxiety and avoidance among children of ANX and NONANX mothers, but, compared to NONANX mothers, ANX mothers held more negative expectations and differed on observations of intrusiveness, expressed anxiety, warmth and the quality of the relationship. Associations were moderated by the degree to which children expressed anxiety during the tasks. Maternal reported negative emotions during the task significantly mediated the association between maternal anxiety status and the observed quality of the relationship. These findings suggest that maternal anxiety disorder is associated with reduced tolerance of children’s negative emotions. This may interfere with the maintenance of a positive, supportive mother-child interaction under conditions of stress, and as such impede optimum treatment outcomes. The findings identify potential cognitive, affective and behavioural targets to improve treatment outcomes for children with anxiety disorders in the context of a current maternal anxiety disorder.

Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe

New crop cultivars will be required for a changing climate characterised by increased summer drought and heat stress in Europe. However, the uncertainty in climate predictions poses a challenge to crop scientists and breeders who have limited time and resources and must select the most appropriate traits for improvement. Modelling is a powerful tool to quantify future threats to crops and hence identify targets for improvement. We have used a wheat simulation model combined with local-scale climate scenarios to predict impacts of heat stress and drought on winter wheat in Europe. Despite the lower summer precipitation projected for 2050s across Europe, relative yield losses from drought is predicted to be smaller in the future, because wheat will mature earlier avoiding severe drought. By contrast, the risk of heat stress around flowering will increase, potentially resulting in substantial yield losses for heat sensitive cultivars commonly grown in northern Europe.

Does training improve understanding of core concepts in cognitive behaviour therapy by people with intellectual disabilities? A randomized experiment

Background. People with intellectual disabilities (ID) experience similar or even higher rates of mental health problems than the general population and there is a need to develop appropriate treatments. Cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) is effective for a wide range of disorders in the general population. However, there is some evidence that people with ID may lack the cognitive skills needed to take part in CBT. Aims. To test if people with ID can learn skills required for CBT, specifically the ability to distinguish between thoughts, feelings, and behaviours and to link thoughts and feelings (cognitive mediation). Method. A randomized independent groups design was used to examine the effect of training in CBT on two tasks measuring CBT skills. Thirty-four adults with ID were randomly allocated to the experimental condition ðN ¼ 18Þ or to the control condition ðN ¼ 16Þ. CBT skills were assessed blind at baseline and after the intervention. Results. The training led to significant improvements in participants’ ability to link thoughts and feelings, and this skill was generalized to new material. There was no effect of training on participants’ ability to distinguish amongst thoughts, feelings, and behaviours. People with ID can, therefore, learn some skills required for CBT. This implies that preparatory training for CBT might be useful for people with ID. The results might be applicable to other groups who find aspects of CBT difficult.

Cognitive behaviour therapy for low self-esteem: A preliminary randomized controlled trial in a primary care setting

Background and Objectives Low self-esteem (LSE) is associated with psychiatric disorder, and is distressing and debilitating in its own right. Hence, it is frequent target for treatment in cognitive behavioural interventions, yet it has rarely been the primary focus for intervention. This paper reports on a preliminary randomized controlled trial of cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for LSE using Fennell’s (1997) cognitive conceptualisation and transdiagnostic treatment approach ( [Fennell, 1997] and [Fennell, 1999]). Methods Twenty-two participants were randomly allocated to either immediate treatment (IT) (n = 11) or to a waitlist condition (WL) (n = 11). Treatment consisted of 10 sessions of individual CBT accompanied by workbooks. Participants allocated to the WL condition received the CBT intervention once the waitlist period was completed and all participants were followed up 11 weeks after completing CBT. Results The IT group showed significantly better functioning than the WL group on measures of LSE, overall functioning and depression and had fewer psychiatric diagnoses at the end of treatment. The WL group showed the same pattern of response to CBT as the group who had received CBT immediately. All treatment gains were maintained at follow-up assessment. Limitations The sample size is small and consists mainly of women with a high level of educational attainment and the follow-up period was relatively short. Conclusions These preliminary findings suggest that a focused, brief CBT intervention can be effective in treating LSE and associated symptoms and diagnoses in a clinically representative group of individuals with a range of different and co-morbid disorders.

Neural correlates of true and false memory in mild cognitive impairment

The goal of this research was to investigate the changes in neural processing in mild cognitive impairment. We measured phase synchrony, amplitudes, and event-related potentials in veridical and false memory to determine whether these differed in participants with mild cognitive impairment compared with typical, age-matched controls. Empirical mode decomposition phase locking analysis was used to assess synchrony, which is the first time this analysis technique has been applied in a complex cognitive task such as memory processing. The technique allowed assessment of changes in frontal and parietal cortex connectivity over time during a memory task, without a priori selection of frequency ranges, which has been shown previously to influence synchrony detection. Phase synchrony differed significantly in its timing and degree between participant groups in the theta and alpha frequency ranges. Timing differences suggested greater dependence on gist memory in the presence of mild cognitive impairment. The group with mild cognitive impairment had significantly more frontal theta phase locking than the controls in the absence of a significant behavioural difference in the task, providing new evidence for compensatory processing in the former group. Both groups showed greater frontal phase locking during false than true memory, suggesting increased searching when no actual memory trace was found. Significant inter-group differences in frontal alpha phase locking provided support for a role for lower and upper alpha oscillations in memory processing. Finally, fronto-parietal interaction was significantly reduced in the group with mild cognitive impairment, supporting the notion that mild cognitive impairment could represent an early stage in Alzheimer’s disease, which has been described as a ‘disconnection syndrome’.

A parentally-administered cognitive development assessment for children from 10 to 24 months

The Cognitive Development Questionnaire (CDQ) allows accurate assessment of cognitive development of children from 10 to 24 months by parents and caregivers in the home. It takes between one and two hours to complete over about a week. Three phases of work are described, in which the instrument is progressively refined to improve its validity and reliability. This resulting version of the CDQ shows excellent correlation with age, and with the Mental Scale of the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (Bayley, 1993). The CDQ thus offers researchers and clinicians a useful alternative to professionally-administered cognitive assessment in infancy.

Impact of serving method on the consumption of nutritional supplement drinks: randomised trial in older adults with cognitive impairment

Aim: To analyse the influence of serving method on compliance and consumption of nutritional supplement drinks in older adults with cognitive impairment. Background: Oral nutritional supplement drinks have positive benefits on increasing nutritional status within undernourished elderly people leading to weight gain. However, consumption of these drinks is low and therefore limits their effectiveness. Design: This study was a non blind randomised control trial where participants either consumed nutritional supplement drinks in a glass/beaker or consumed them through a straw inserted directly into the container. Method: Participants with longstanding cognitive impairment were recruited from nursing homes (n=31) and hospitals (n=14). Participants were randomised to serving method. Nursing and care staff were instructed to give the supplement drinks three times per day on alternate days over a week by the allocated serving method. The researcher weighed the amount of supplement drink remaining after consumption. Data were collected over 12 months in 2011-2012. Results: 45 people participated in this study mean age 86.7 (SD 7.5 ) years. After randomisation there was no significant difference between the baseline characteristics of the two groups. Participants randomised to consume nutritional drinks from a glass / beaker drank significantly more than those who consumed them via a straw inserted directly into the container. However, supplements allocated to be given in a glass/beaker were more frequently omitted. Conclusion: Nutritional supplement drinks should be given to people with dementia who are able to feed themselves in a glass or a beaker if staffing resources allow (NIHR CSP ref 31101).

Predicting outcomes following cognitive behavior therapy in child anxiety disorders: the influence of genetic, demographic and clinical information

Background. Within a therapeutic gene by environment (GxE) framework, we recently demonstrated that variation in the Serotonin Transporter Promoter Polymorphism; 5HTTLPR and marker rs6330 in Nerve Growth Factor gene; NGF is associated with poorer outcomes following cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for child anxiety disorders. The aim of this study was to explore one potential means of extending the translational reach of G×E data in a way that may be clinically informative. We describe a ‘risk-index’ approach combining genetic, demographic and clinical data and test its ability to predict diagnostic outcome following CBT in anxious children. Method. DNA and clinical data were collected from 384 children with a primary anxiety disorder undergoing CBT. We tested our risk model in five cross-validation training sets. Results. In predicting treatment outcome, six variables had a minimum mean beta value of 0.5: 5HTTLPR, NGF rs6330, gender, primary anxiety severity, comorbid mood disorder and comorbid externalising disorder. A risk index (range 0-8) constructed from these variables had moderate predictive ability (AUC = .62-.69) in this study. Children scoring high on this index (5-8) were approximately three times as likely to retain their primary anxiety disorder at follow-up as compared to those children scoring 2 or less. Conclusion. Significant genetic, demographic and clinical predictors of outcome following CBT for anxiety-disordered children were identified. Combining these predictors within a risk-index could be used to identify which children are less likely to be diagnosis free following CBT alone or thus require longer or enhanced treatment. The ‘risk-index’ approach represents one means of harnessing the translational potential of G×E data.

Combined neurostimulation and neuroimaging in cognitive neuroscience: past, present, and future

Modern neurostimulation approaches in humans provide controlled inputs into the operations of cortical regions, with highly specific behavioral consequences. This enables causal structure–function inferences, and in combination with neuroimaging, has provided novel insights into the basic mechanisms of action of neurostimulation on dis- tributed networks. For example,more recent work has established the capacity of transcranialmagnetic stimulation (TMS) to probe causal interregional influences, and their interaction with cognitive state changes. Combinations of neurostimulation and neuroimaging now face the challenge of integrating the known physiological effects of neu- rostimulationwith theoretical and biologicalmodels of cognition, for example,when theoretical stalemates between opposing cognitive theories need to be resolved. This will be driven by novel developments, including biologically informedcomputational network analyses for predicting the impactofneurostimulationonbrainnetworks, as well as novel neuroimaging and neurostimulation techniques. Such future developments may offer an expanded set of tools withwhich to investigate structure–function relationships, and to formulate and reconceptualize testable hypotheses about complex neural network interactions and their causal roles in cognition

The treatment of child anxiety disorders via guided parent-delivered cognitive-behavioural therapy: a randomised controlled trial

Background Promising evidence has emerged of clinical gains using guided self-help cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) for child anxiety and by involving parents in treatment; however, the efficacy of guided parent-delivered CBT has not been systematically evaluated in UK primary and secondary settings. Aims To evaluate the efficacy of low-intensity guided parent-delivered CBT treatments for children with anxiety disorders. Method A total of 194 children presenting with a current anxiety disorder, whose primary carer did not meet criteria for a current anxiety disorder, were randomly allocated to full guided parent-delivered CBT (four face-to-face and four telephone sessions) or brief guided parent-delivered CBT (two face-to-face and two telephone sessions), or a wait-list control group (trial registration: ISRCTN92977593). Presence and severity of child primary anxiety disorder (Anxiety Disorders Interview Schedule for DSM-IV, child/parent versions), improvement in child presentation of anxiety (Clinical Global Impression-Improvement scale), and change in child anxiety symptoms (Spence Children’s Anxiety Scale, child/parent version and Child Anxiety Impact scale, parent version) were assessed at post-treatment and for those in the two active treatment groups, 6 months post-treatment. Results Full guided parent-delivered CBT produced superior diagnostic outcomes compared with wait-list at post-treatment, whereas brief guided parent-delivered CBT did not: at post-treatment, 25 (50%) of those in the full guided CBT group had recovered from their primary diagnosis, compared with 16 (25%) of those on the wait-list (relative risk (RR) 1.85, 95% CI 1.14-2.99); and in the brief guided CBT group, 18 participants (39%) had recovered from their primary diagnosis post-treatment (RR = 1.56, 95% CI 0.89-2.74). Level of therapist training and experience was unrelated to child outcome. Conclusions Full guided parent-delivered CBT is an effective and inexpensive first-line

Interface vulnerability and knowledge of the subjunctive/indicative distinction with negated epistemic predicates in L2 Spanish.

Much recent research in SLA is guided by the hypothesis of L2 interface vulnerability (see Sorace 2005). This study contributes to this general project by examining the acquisition of two classes of subjunctive complement clauses in L2 Spanish: subjunctive complements of volitional predicates (purely syntactic) and subjunctive vs. indicative complements with negated epistemic matrix predicates, where the mood distinction is discourse dependent (thus involving the syntax-discourse interface). We provide an analysis of the volitional subjunctive in English and Spanish, suggesting that English learners of L2 Spanish need to access the functional projection Mood P and an uninterpretable modal feature on the Force head available to them from their formal English register grammar, and simultaneously must unacquire the structure of English for-to clauses. For negated epistemic predicates, our analysis maintains that they need to revalue the modal feature on the Force head from uninterpretable to interpretable, within the L2 grammar.With others (e.g. Borgonovo & Prévost 2003; Borgonovo, Bruhn de Garavito & Prévost 2005) and in line with Sorace's (2000, 2003, 2005) notion of interface vulnerability, we maintain that the latter case is more difficult for L2 learners, which is borne out in the data we present. However, the data also show that the indicative/subjunctive distinction with negated epistemics can be acquired by advanced stages of acquisition, questioning the notion of obligatory residual optionality for all properties which require the integration of syntactic and discourse information.