Ensemble wind forecasting based on the HARMONIE model and adaptive finite elements in complex orography

[EN]Ensemble forecasting is a methodology to deal with uncertainties in the numerical wind prediction. In this work we propose to apply ensemble methods to the adaptive wind forecasting model presented in. The wind field forecasting is based on a mass-consistent model and a log-linear wind profile using as input data the resulting forecast wind from Harmonie, a Non-Hydrostatic Dynamic model used experimentally at AEMET with promising results. The mass-consistent model parameters are estimated by using genetic algorithms. The mesh is generated using the meccano method and adapted to the geometry…

Business Clusters in Eastern Europe: Policy Analysis and Cluster Performance

Clusters have increasingly become an essential part of policy discourses at all levels, EU, national, regional, dealing with regional development, competitiveness, innovation, entrepreneurship, SMEs. These impressive efforts in promoting the concept of clusters on the policy-making arena have been accompanied by much less academic and scientific research work investigating the actual economic performance of firms in clusters, the design and execution of cluster policies and going beyond singular case studies to a more methodologically integrated and comparative approach to the study of clusters and their real-world impact. The theoretical background is far from being consolidated and there is a variety of methodologies and approaches for studying and interpreting this phenomenon while at the same time little comparability among studies on actual cluster performances. The conceptual framework of clustering suggests that they affect performance but theory makes little prediction as to the ultimate distribution of the value being created by clusters. This thesis takes the case of Eastern European countries for two reasons. One is that clusters, as coopetitive environments, are a new phenomenon as the previous centrally-based system did not allow for such types of firm organizations. The other is that, as new EU member states, they have been subject to the increased popularization of the cluster policy approach by the European Commission, especially in the framework of the National Reform Programmes related to the Lisbon objectives. The originality of the work lays in the fact that starting from an overview of theoretical contributions on clustering, it offers a comparative empirical study of clusters in transition countries. There have been very few examples in the literature that attempt to examine cluster performance in a comparative cross-country perspective. It adds to this an analysis of cluster policies and their implementation or lack of such as a way to analyse the way the cluster concept has been introduced to transition economies. Our findings show that the implementation of cluster policies does vary across countries with some countries which have embraced it more than others. The specific modes of implementation, however, are very similar, based mostly on soft measures such as funding for cluster initiatives, usually directed towards the creation of cluster management structures or cluster facilitators. They are essentially founded on a common assumption that the added values of clusters is in the creation of linkages among firms, human capital, skills and knowledge at the local level, most often perceived as the regional level. Often times geographical proximity is not a necessary element in the application process and cluster application are very similar to network membership. Cluster mapping is rarely a factor in the selection of cluster initiatives for funding and the relative question about critical mass and expected outcomes is not considered. In fact, monitoring and evaluation are not elements of the cluster policy cycle which have received a lot of attention. Bulgaria and the Czech Republic are the countries which have implemented cluster policies most decisively, Hungary and Poland have made significant efforts, while Slovakia and Romania have only sporadically and not systematically used cluster initiatives. When examining whether, in fact, firms located within regional clusters perform better and are more efficient than similar firms outside clusters, we do find positive results across countries and across sectors. The only country with negative impact from being located in a cluster is the Czech Republic.

Molecular phylogeography of the Woodland Ringlet (Erebia medusa [Denis and Schiffermüller] 1775) in Europe

Phylogeography is a recent field of biological research that links phylogenetics to biogeography through deciphering the imprint that evolutionary history has left on the genetic structure of extant populations. During the cold phases of the successive ice ages, which drastically shaped species’ distributions since the Pliocene, populations of numerous species were isolated in refugia where many of them evolved into different genetic lineages. My dissertation deals with the phylogeography of the Woodland Ringlet (Erebia medusa [Denis and Schiffermüller] 1775) in Central and Eastern Europe. This Palaearctic butterfly species is currently distributed from central France and south eastern Belgium over large parts of Central Europe and southern Siberia to the Pacific. It is absent from those parts of Europe with mediterranean, oceanic and boreal climates. It was supposed to be a Siberian faunal element with a rather homogeneous population structure in Central Europe due to its postglacial expansion out of a single eastern refugium. An already existing evolutionary scenario for the Woodland Ringlet in Central and Eastern Europe is based on nuclear data (allozymes). To know if this is corroborated by organelle evolutionary history, I sequenced two mitochondrial markers (part of the cytochrome oxydase subunit one and the control region) for populations sampled over the same area. Phylogeography largely relies on the construction of networks of uniparentally inherited haplotypes that are compared to geographic haplotype distribution thanks to recent developed methods such as nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA). Several ring-shaped ambiguities (loops) emerged from both haplotype networks in E. medusa. They can be attributed to recombination and homoplasy. Such loops usually avert the straightforward extraction of the phylogeographic signal contained in a gene tree. I developed several new approaches to extract phylogeographic information in the presence of loops, considering either homoplasy or recombination. This allowed me to deduce a consistent evolutionary history for the species from the mitochondrial data and also adds plausibility for the occurrence of recombination in E. medusa mitochondria. Despite the fact that the control region is assumed to have a lack of resolving power in other species, I found a considerable genetic variation of this marker in E. medusa which makes it a useful tool for phylogeographic studies. In combination with the allozyme data, the mitochondrial genome supports the following phylogeographic scenario for E. medusa in Europe: (i) a first vicariance, due to the onset of the Würm glaciation, led to the formation of several major lineages, and is mirrored in the NCPA by restricted gene flow, (ii) later on further vicariances led to the formation of two sub-lineages in the Western lineage and two sub-lineages in the Eastern lineage during the Last Glacial Maximum or Older Dryas; additionally the NCPA supports a restriction of gene flow with isolation by distance, (iii) finally, vicariance resulted in two secondary sub-lineages in the area of Germany and, maybe, to two other secondary sub-lineages in the Czech Republic. The last postglacial warming was accompanied by strong range expansions in most of the genetic lineages. The scenario expected for a presumably Siberian faunal element such as E. medusa is a continuous loss of genetic diversity during postglacial westward expansion. Hence, the pattern found in this thesis contradicts a typical Siberian origin of E. medusa. In contrast, it corroboratess the importance of multiple extra-Mediterranean refugia for European fauna as it was recently assumed for other continental species.

Molecular variability of Meningococcal antigens in carriage and disease strains and in other Neisseria species

This PhD thesis is focused on the study of the molecular variability of some specific proteins, part of the outer membrane of the pathogen Neisseria meningitidis, and described as protective antigens and important virulence factors. These antigens have been employed as components of the vaccine developed by Novartis Vaccines against N. meningitidis of serogroup B, and their variability in the meningococcal population is a key aspect when the effect of the vaccine is evaluated. The PhD project has led to complete three major studies described in three different manuscritps, of which two have been published and the third is in preparation. The thesis is structured in three main chapters, each of them dedicated to the three studies. The first, described in Chapter 1, is specifically dedicated to the analysis of the molecular conservation of meningococcal antigens in the genomes of all species classified in the genus Neisseria (Conservation of Meningococcal Antigens in the Genus Neisseria. A. Muzzi et al.. 2013. mBio 4 (3)). The second study, described in Chapter 2, focuses on the analysis of the presence and conservation of the antigens in a panel of bacterial isolates obtained from cases of the disease and from healthy individuals, and collected in the same year and in the same geographical area (Conservation of fHbp, NadA, and NHBA in carrier and pathogenic isolates of Neisseria meningitidis collected in the Czech Republic in 1993. A. Muzzi et al.. Manuscript in preparation). Finally, Chapter 3 describes the molecular features of the antigens in a panel of bacterial isolates collected over a period of 50 years, and representatives of the epidemiological history of meningococcal disease in the Netherlands (An Analysis of the Sequence Variability of Meningococcal fHbp, NadA and NHBA over a 50-Year Period in the Netherlands. S. Bambini et al.. 2013. PloS one e65043).

High mobility rates during the period of the "Celtic migrations"? - 87 Sr, 86 Sr and delta 18 O evidence from Early La Tène Europe

Although the period of the historic “Celtic migrations” is archaeologically extensively studied, the long-lasting question whether mass migration or increased individual mobility caused the expansion of the La Tène culture throughout continental Europe persist. Strontium (Sr) and in part oxygen (O) isotope analysis of human remains from the early La Tène cemeteries of Nebringen (Germany), Münsingen-Rain (Switzerland), Monte Bibele (Italy) and the Czech cemeteries of Radovesice I, Radovesice II and Kutná Hora was, therefore, carried out to investigate the importance of residential changes during this time period. These isotope analyses showed that most analysed individuals either came from the area they were buried in or from the surrounding area of the cemetery. An exception was formed by the Czech cemeteries, where almost a quarter of the studied individuals appeared non-local. Together with Nebringen, these cemeteries also had the most varied Sr isotope ratios, which suggest highly mobile communities in which individuals regularly changed their residency. The isotopic ratios of the cemeteries of Münsingen-Rain and Monte Bibele appeared far less varied. In part, these differences might be explained by the community structures of these cemeteries. Morphological kinship analysis in Münsingen-Rain demonstrated biological relatedness among most of the analysed individuals. These related individuals also shared similar isotope signatures, which suggest an origin from the surrounding Aar Valley. In the vicinity of the cemetery of Monte Bibele, an associated settlement site was discovered. The deceased presumably not only shared this settlement, but also cultivated the same land plots. Dispersed settlement structures were suggested for Nebringen, Radovesice and Kutná Hora, as these agriculturally favourable landscapes were densely populated during prehistoric times. Connected to these community structures are the prevailing geological conditions in these areas. Both Münsingen-Rain and Monte Bibele are located in a region where homogeneous geological conditions prevail, whereas the landscapes of Nebringen, Radovesice and Kutná Hora are characterised by complex heterogeneous geological conditions. As the majority of individuals in Nebringen and the Czech cemeteries correspond to the expected isotope values for the studied areas, regularly changing land plots might have contributed to the observed variation. Although mass migration as depicted by the historical sources was not observed individual mobility of a small part of these studied communities certainly played a role. Males appeared, thereby, to have slightly more often a non-local birthplace or moved during childhood. Male mobility was, however, not always associated with burial as a warrior. Females, on the other hand, originated more often from the region. Patrilocal residential patterns, with the exception of the Czech cemeteries, were nevertheless not observed. Objects and ideas also seem to have been exchanged freely, as there are no indications that individuals with particular grave goods came from specific areas. It rather appears that the individuals buried with them were either local or had different places of origin. This can be explained by the fact that the exact origin of grave goods is difficult to establish and the occurrence of similar 87Sr/86Sr values in different areas. This study provided important new insights on the period of the “Celtic migrations” and the way of life of these prehistoric people.

Lessons in Software Evolution Learned by Listening to Smalltalk

The biggest challenge facing software developers today is how to gracefully evolve complex software systems in the face of changing requirements. We clearly need software systems to be more dynamic, compositional and model-centric, but instead we continue to build systems that are static, baroque and inflexible. How can we better build change-enabled systems in the future? To answer this question, we propose to look back to one of the most successful systems to support change, namely Smalltalk. We briefly introduce Smalltalk with a few simple examples, and draw some lessons for software evolution. Smalltalk's simplicity, its reflective design, and its highly dynamic nature all go a long way towards enabling change in Smalltalk applications. We then illustrate how these lessons work in practice by reviewing a number of research projects that support software evolution by exploiting Smalltalk's design. We conclude by summarizing open issues and challenges for change-enabled systems of the future.

Holocene land-cover reconstructions for studies on land cover-climate feedbacks

The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to review the pros and cons of the scenarios of past anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) developed during the last ten years, (2) to discuss issues related to pollen-based reconstruction of the past land-cover and introduce a new method, REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites), to infer long-term records of past land-cover from pollen data, (3) to present a new project (LANDCLIM: LAND cover – CLIMate interactions in NW Europe during the Holocene) currently underway, and show preliminary results of REVEALS reconstructions of the regional land-cover in the Czech Republic for five selected time windows of the Holocene, and (4) to discuss the implications and future directions in climate and vegetation/land-cover modeling, and in the assessment of the effects of human-induced changes in land-cover on the regional climate through altered feedbacks. The existing ALCC scenarios show large discrepancies between them, and few cover time periods older than AD 800. When these scenarios are used to assess the impact of human land-use on climate, contrasting results are obtained. It emphasizes the need for methods such as the REVEALS model-based land-cover reconstructions. They might help to fine-tune descriptions of past land-cover and lead to a better understanding of how long-term changes in ALCC might have influenced climate. The REVEALS model is demonstrated to provide better estimates of the regional vegetation/land-cover changes than the traditional use of pollen percentages. This will achieve a robust assessment of land cover at regional- to continental-spatial scale throughout the Holocene. We present maps of REVEALS estimates for the percentage cover of 10 plant functional types (PFTs) at 200 BP and 6000 BP, and of the two open-land PFTs "grassland" and "agricultural land" at five time-windows from 6000 BP to recent time. The LANDCLIM results are expected to provide crucial data to reassess ALCC estimates for a better understanding of the land suface-atmosphere interactions.

Activation of sphingosine kinase 2 is an endogenous protective mechanism in cerebral ischemia

The two ubiquitously expressed sphingosine kinases (SphK) 1 and 2 are key regulators of the sphingolipid signaling pathway. Despite the formation of an identical messenger, i.e. sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P), they exert strikingly different functions. Particularly, SphK2 is necessary for the phosphorylation of the sphingosine analog fingolimod (FTY720), which is protective in rodent stroke models. Using gene deficient mice lacking either SphK1 or SphK2, we investigated the role of the two lipid kinases in experimental stroke. We performed 2h transient middle cerebral artery occlusion (tMCAO) and analyzed lesion size and neurological function after 24h. Treatment groups received 1mg/kg FTY720. Neutrophil infiltration, microglia activation, mRNA and protein expression of SphK1, SphK2 and the S1P(1) receptor after tMCAO were studied. Genetic deletion of SphK2 but not SphK1 increased ischemic lesion size and worsened neurological function after tMCAO. The protective effect of FTY720 was conserved in SphK1(-/-) mice but not in SphK2(-/-) mice. This suggests that SphK2 activity is an important endogenous protective mechanism in cerebral ischemia and corroborates that the protective effect of FTY720 is mediated via phospho-FTY720.

Nonlethal Screening of Bat-Wing Skin with the Use of Ultraviolet Fluorescence to Detect Lesions Indicative of White-Nose Syndrome

Definitive diagnosis of the bat disease white-nose syndrome (WNS) requires histologic analysis to identify the cutaneous erosions caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus [formerly Geomyces] destructans (Pd). Gross visual inspection does not distinguish bats with or without WNS, and no nonlethal, on-site, preliminary screening methods are available for WNS in bats. We demonstrate that long-wave ultraviolet (UV) light (wavelength 366-385 nm) elicits a distinct orange yellow fluorescence in bat-wing membranes (skin) that corresponds directly with the fungal cupping erosions in histologic sections of skin that are the current gold standard for diagnosis of WNS. Between March 2009 and April 2012, wing membranes from 168 North American bat carcasses submitted to the US Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center were examined with the use of both UV light and histology. Comparison of these techniques showed that 98.8% of the bats with foci of orange yellow wing fluorescence (n=80) were WNS-positive based on histologic diagnosis; bat wings that did not fluoresce under UV light (n=88) were all histologically negative for WNS lesions. Punch biopsy samples as small as 3 mm taken from areas of wing with UV fluorescence were effective for identifying lesions diagnostic for WNS by histopathology. In a nonlethal biopsy-based study of 62 bats sampled (4-mm diameter) in hibernacula of the Czech Republic during 2012, 95.5% of fluorescent (n=22) and 100% of nonfluorescent (n=40) wing samples were confirmed by histopathology to be WNS positive and negative, respectively. This evidence supports use of long-wave UV light as a nonlethal and field-applicable method to screen bats for lesions indicative of WNS. Further, UV fluorescence can be used to guide targeted, nonlethal biopsy sampling for follow-up molecular testing, fungal culture analysis, and histologic confirmation of WNS.

The Constitutional-Judicial Control of the Legislative and Executive Powers in Central and Eastern European Countries

This project looked at the nature, contents, methods, means and legal and political effects of the influence that constitutional courts exercise upon the legislative and executive powers in the newly established democracies of Central and Eastern Europe. The basic hypothesis was that these courts work to provide a limitation of political power within the framework of the principal constitutional values and that they force the legislature and executive to exercise their powers and duties in strict accordance with the constitution. Following a study of the documentary sources, including primarily the relevant constitutional and statutory provisions and decisions of constitutional courts, Mr. Cvetkovski prepared a questionnaire on various aspects of the topics researched and sent it to the respective constitutional courts. A series of direct interviews with court officials in six of the ten countries then served to clarify a large number of questions relating to differences in procedures etc. that arose from the questionnaires. As a final stage, the findings were compared with those described in recent publications on constitutional control in general and in Central and Eastern Europe in particular. The study began by considering the constitutional and political environment of the constitutional courts' activities in controlling legislative and executive powers, which in all countries studied are based on the principles of the rule of law and the separation of powers. All courts are separate bodies with special status in terms of constitutional law and are independent of other political and judicial institutions. The range of matters within their jurisdiction is set by the constitution of the country in question but in all cases can be exercised only with the framework of procedural rules. This gives considerable significance to the question of who sets these rules and different countries have dealt with it in different ways. In some there is a special constitutional law with the same legal force as the constitution itself (Croatia), the majority of countries allow for regulation by an ordinary law, Macedonia gives the court the autonomy to create and change its own rules of procedure, while in Hungary the parliament fixes the rules on procedure at the suggestion of the constitutional court. The question of the appointment of constitutional judges was also considered and of the mechanisms for ensuring their impartiality and immunity. In the area of the courts' scope for providing normative control, considerable differences were found between the different countries. In some cases the courts' jurisdiction is limited to the normative acts of the respective parliaments, and there is generally no provision for challenging unconstitutional omissions by legislation and the executive. There are, however, some situations in which they may indirectly evaluate the constitutionality of legislative omissions, as when the constitution contains provision for a time limit on enacting legislation, when the parliament has made an omission in drafting a law which violates the constitutional provisions, or when a law grants favours to certain groups while excluding others, thereby violating the equal protection clause of the constitution. The control of constitutionality of normative acts can be either preventive or repressive, depending on whether it is implemented before or after the promulgation of the law or other enactment being challenged. In most countries in the region the constitutional courts provide only repressive control, although in Hungary and Poland the courts are competent to perform both preventive and repressive norm control, while in Romania the court's jurisdiction is limited to preventive norm control. Most countries are wary of vesting constitutional courts with preventive norm control because of the danger of their becoming too involved in the day-to-day political debate, but Mr. Cvetkovski points out certain advantages of such control. If combined with a short time limit it can provide early clarification of a constitutional issue, secondly it avoids the problems arising if a law that has been in force for some years is declared to be unconstitutional, and thirdly it may help preserve the prestige of the legislation. Its disadvantages include the difficulty of ascertaining the actual and potential consequences of a norm without the empirical experience of the administration and enforcement of the law, the desirability of a certain distance from the day-to-day arguments surrounding the political process of legislation, the possible effects of changing social and economic conditions, and the danger of placing obstacles in the way of rapid reactions to acute situations. In the case of repressive norm control, this can be either abstract or concrete. The former is initiated by the supreme state organs in order to protect abstract constitutional order and the latter is initiated by ordinary courts, administrative authorities or by individuals. Constitutional courts cannot directly oblige the legislature and executive to pass a new law and this remains a matter of legislative and executive political responsibility. In the case of Poland, the parliament even has the power to dismiss a constitutional court decision by a special majority of votes, which means that the last word lies with the legislature. As the current constitutions of Central and Eastern European countries are newly adopted and differ significantly from the previous ones, the courts' interpretative functions should ensure a degree of unification in the application of the constitution. Some countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Russia) provide for the constitutional courts' decisions to have a binding role on the constitutions. While their decisions inevitably have an influence on the actions of public bodies, they do not set criteria for political behaviour, which depends rather on the overall political culture and traditions of the society. All constitutions except that of Belarus, provide for the courts to have jurisdiction over conflicts arising from the distribution of responsibilities between different organs and levels in the country, as well for impeachment procedures against the head of state, and for determining the constitutionality of political parties (except in Belarus, Hungary, Russia and Slovakia). All the constitutions studied guarantee individual rights and freedoms and most courts have jurisdiction over complaints of violation of these rights by the constitution. All courts also have some jurisdiction over international agreements and treaties, either directly (Belarus, Bulgaria and Hungary) before the treaty is ratified, or indirectly (Croatia, Czech Republic, Macedonia, Romania, Russia and Yugoslavia). In each country the question of who may initiate proceedings of norm control is of central importance and is usually regulated by the constitution itself. There are three main possibilities: statutory organs, normal courts and private individuals and the limitations on each of these is discussed in the report. Most courts are limited in their rights to institute ex officio a full-scale review of a point of law, and such rights as they do have rarely been used. In most countries courts' decisions do not have any binding force but must be approved by parliament or impose on parliament the obligation to bring the relevant law into conformity within a certain period. As a result, the courts' position is generally weaker than in other countries in Europe, with parliament remaining the supreme body. In the case of preventive norm control a finding of unconstitutionality may act to suspend the law and or to refer it back to the legislature, where in countries such as Romania it may even be overturned by a two-thirds majority. In repressive norm control a finding of unconstitutionality generally serves to take the relevant law out of legal force from the day of publication of the decision or from another date fixed by the court. If the law is annulled retrospectively this may or may not bring decisions of criminal courts under review, depending on the provisions laid down in the relevant constitution. In cases relating to conflicts of competencies the courts' decisions tend to be declaratory and so have a binding effect inter partes. In the case of a review of an individual act, decisions generally become effective primarily inter partes but is the individual act has been based on an unconstitutional generally binding normative act of the legislature or executive, the findings has quasi-legal effect as it automatically initiates special proceedings in which the law or other regulation is to be annulled or abrogated with effect erga omnes. This wards off further application of the law and thus further violations of individual constitutional rights, but also discourages further constitutional complaints against the same law. Thus the success of one individual's complaint extends to everyone else whose rights have equally been or might have been violated by the respective law. As the body whose act is repealed is obliged to adopt another act and in doing so is bound by the legal position of the constitutional court on the violation of constitutionally guaranteed freedoms and rights of the complainant, in this situation the decision of the constitutional court has the force of a precedent.

The Retirement Behaviour of Older Workers in Transitional Economies

Research has shown that public pay-as-you-go, defined-benefit pension plans penalise those who stay at work beyond a certain age by reducing the present discounted value of future retirement benefits. In discussions on the effectiveness of policies aimed at eliminating the age-dependency factor in workers' decisions to retire, it is often assumed either that the benefits in all future periods have the same weight in the present discounted value or that the discount rate is close to unity due to low real interest rates used in this case. Galuscak first considered the U.S. pension scheme, showing that discounting plays a crucial role since the formula for the present discounted value of future retirement benefits is sensitive to the discount rate used. He then analysed the role of social security incentives and retirement provisions on older workers' behaviour in the labour markets of the Czech and Slovak Republics and the effect of the macroeconomic environment on workers' decisions to retire. He calculated the optimal parameters of the Czech and Slovak pension rules and assessed the potential effectiveness of changes to the Czech scheme introduced in January 1996.