Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the brazilian economy

This paper has three original contributions. The first is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re)establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by TCB and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business Cycles literature.

Tópicos em Econometria Aplicada

This paper has three original contributions. The first is the reconstruction of employment and income series to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business Cycles literature.

Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the brazilian economy

This paper has three original contributions. The first is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business Cycles literature.

Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy

This paper has three original contributions. The fi rst is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business-Cycle literature.

Estimating Brazilian Monthly GDP: a State-Space Approach

This paper has several original contributions. The first is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series- all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Common factors in Latin America's business cycles

This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external trade, fiscal and financial variables. The analysis spans the 135 years since the insertion of these economies into the global economy in the 1870s. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cyc1e chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that ali four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cyc1e volatility and persistence relative to advanced country benchmarks. Volatility changed considerably over time, however, being very high during early formative decades through the Great Depression, and again during the 1970s and ear1y 1980s, before declining sharply in three of the four countries. We also identify a sizeable common factor across the four economies which variance decompositions ascribe mostly to foreign interest rates and shocks to commodity terms of trade.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

This paper has several original contributions. The rst is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). Second, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), we propose and test a myriad of interpolation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we nally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil- the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that the our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, whichmay not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. Third, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, we illustrate the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

The first contribution of this paper is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). The second contribution, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), is to propose and test a myriad of inter-polation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. The third contribution is to illustrate, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

A construção da ponte metálica sobre o Rio Pontengi: aspectos históricos, construtivos e de durabilidade - Natal/RN, Brasil (1912-1916) - estudo de caso

It is a case study that reports the construction of metal truss bridge in the river Potengi in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, between the years 1912 and 1916. From testimonials on steel bridges in Brazil and worldwide including foundations. Documentary research from procurement of projects and contracts was performed. A chronology of construction, with a description of the equipment used and its original budget with the Brazilian government. Still, we used interviews and surveys with experimental sampling / testimonies, laboratory tests. This study aims to analyze historically and technically the Bridge over the River Potengi, emphasizing primarily the construction process, the qualities and characteristics of the materials used and the technological, chemical, mineralogical and microstructural properties of cement and concrete used in its construction. Taking as conclusions that cements pozolônicos ensured a good durability to the concrete in a hundred-year period and that the solution employed with the compressed air caissons was right

Estruturas tectônicas cenozóicas na porção leste da Bacia Potiguar - RN

This thesis encompasses the integration of geological, geophysical, and seismological data in the east part of the Potiguar basin, northeastern Brazil. The northeastern region is located in South American passive margin, which exhibits important areas that present neotectonic activity. The definition of the chronology of events, geometry of structures generated by these events, and definition of which structures have been reactivated is a necessary task in the region. The aims of this thesis are the following: (1) to identify the geometry and kinematics of neotectonic faults in the east part of the Potiguar basin; (2) to date the tectonic events related to these structures and related them to paleoseismicity in the region; (3) to present evolutional models that could explain evolution of Neogene structures; (4) and to investigate the origin of the reactivation process, mainly the type of related structure associated with faulting. The main type of data used comprised structural field data, well and resistivity data, remote sensing imagery, chronology of sediments, morphotectonic analysis, x-ray analysis, seismological and aeromagnetic data. Paleostress analysis indicates that at least two tectonic stress fields occurred in the study area: NSoriented compression and EW-oriented extension from the late Campanian to the early Miocene and EW-oriented compression and NS-oriented extension from the early Miocene to the Holocene. These stress fields reactivated NE-SW- and NW-SE-trending faults. Both set of faults exhibit right-lateral strike-slip kinematics, associated with a minor normal component. It was possible to determine the en echelon geometry of the Samambaia fault, which is ~63 km long, 13 km deep, presents NE-SW trend and strong dip to NW. Sedimentfilled faults in granite rocks yielded Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) and Single-Aliquot Regeneration (SAR) ages at 8.000 - 9.000, 11.000 - 15.000, 16.000 - 24.000, 37.000 - 45.500, 53.609 - 67.959 e 83.000 - 84.000 yr BP. The analysis of the ductile fabric in the João Câmara area indicate that the regional foliation is NE-SW-oriented (032o - 042o), which coincides with the orientation of the epicenters and Si-rich veins. The collective evidence points to reactivation of preexisting structures. Paleoseismological data suggest paleoseismic activity much higher than the one indicated by the short historical and instrumental record

A utilização da modelagem física no estudo do desenvolvimento, geometria e cinemática de falhas distensionais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Osteocalcin immunolabeling during the alveolar healing process in ovariectomized rats treated with estrogen or raloxifene

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Histomorphometric analysis and immunolocalization of RANKL and OPG during the alveolar healing process in female ovariectomized rats treated with oestrogen or raloxifene

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Efeitos da radiação laser de dióxido de carbono em tecido ósseo: estudo macroscópico em ratos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)