Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: Processes and uncertainties

Many modelling studies examine the impacts of climate change on crop yield, but few explore either the underlying bio-physical processes, or the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We used a perturbed-parameter crop modelling method together with a regional climate model (PRECIS) driven by the 2071-2100 SRES A2 emissions scenario in order to examine processes and uncertainties in yield simulation. Crop simulations used the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the General Large-Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). Two sets of GLAM simulations were carried out: control simulations and fixed-duration simulations, where the impact of mean temperature on crop development rate was removed. Model results were compared to sensitivity tests using two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., and Bell, M.J., 1995, A peanut simulation model: I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. GLAM simulations were particularly sensitive to two processes. First, elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD) consistently reduced yield. The same result was seen in some simulations using both other crop models. Second, GLAM crop duration was longer, and yield greater, when the optimal temperature for the rate of development was exceeded. Yield increases were also seen in one other crop model. Overall, the models differed in their response to super-optimal temperatures, and that difference increased with mean temperature; percentage changes in yield between current and future climates were as diverse as -50% and over +30% for the same input data. The first process has been observed in many crop experiments, whilst the second has not. Thus, we conclude that there is a need for: (i) more process-based modelling studies of the impact of VPD on assimilation, and (ii) more experimental studies at super-optimal temperatures. Using the GLAM results, central values and uncertainty ranges were projected for mean 2071-2100 crop yields in India. In the fixed-duration simulations, ensemble mean yields mostly rose by 10-30%. The full ensemble range was greater than this mean change (20-60% over most of India). In the control simulations, yield stimulation by elevated CO2 was more than offset by other processes-principally accelerated crop development rates at elevated, but sub-optimal, mean temperatures. Hence, the quantification of uncertainty can facilitate relatively robust indications of the likely sign of crop yield changes in future climates. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tumour necrosis factor alpha induces rapid reduction in AMPA receptor-mediated calcium entry in motor neurones by increasing cell surface expression of the GluR2 subunit: relevance to neurodegeneration

The AMPA receptor (AMPAR) subunit GluR2, which regulates excitotoxicity and the inflammatory cytokine tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF alpha) have both been implicated in motor neurone vulnerability in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis/Motor Neurone Disease. TNF alpha has been reported to increase cell surface expression of AMPAR subunits to increase synaptic strength and enhance excitotoxicity, but whether this mechanism occurs in motor neurones is unknown. We used primary cultures of mouse motor neurones and cortical neurones to examine the interaction between TNF alpha receptor activation, GluR2 availability, AMPAR-mediated calcium entry and susceptibility to excitotoxicity. Short exposure to a physiologically relevant concentration of TNFalpha (10 ng/ml, 15 min) caused a marked redistribution of both GluR1 and GluR2 to the cell surface as determined by cell surface biotinylation and immunofluorescence. Using Fura-2 AM microfluorimetry we showed that exposure to TNFalpha caused a rapid reduction in the peak amplitude of AMPA-mediated calcium entry in a PI3-kinase and p38 kinase-dependent manner, consistent with increased insertion of GluR2-containing AMPAR into the plasma membrane. This resulted in a protection of motor neurones against kainate-induced cell death. Our data therefore, suggests that TNF alpha acts primarily as a physiological regulator of synaptic activity in motor neurones rather than a pathological drive in ALS

Reduction of arsenic uptake by lettuce with ferrous sulfate applied to contaminated soil

Soil contamination by arsenic (As) presents a hazard in many countries and there is a need for techniques to minimize As uptake by plants. A proposed in situ remediation method was tested by growing lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. cv. Kermit) in a greenhouse pot experiment on soil that contained 577 mg As kg(-1), taken from a former As smelter site. All combinations of iron (Fe) oxides, at concentrations of 0.00, 0.22, 0.54, and 1.09% (w/w), and lime, at concentrations of 0.00, 0.27, 0.68, and 1.36% (w/w), were tested in a factorial design. To create the treatments, field-moist soil, commercial-grade FeSO4, and ground agricultural lime were mixed and stored for one week, allowing Fe oxides to precipitate. Iron oxides gave highly significant (P < 0.001) reductions in lettuce As concentrations, down to 11% of the lettuce As concentration for untreated soil. For the Fe oxides and lime treatment combinations where soil pH was maintained nearly constant, the lettuce As concentration declined in an exponential relationship with increasing FeSO4 application rate and lettuce yield was almost unchanged. Iron oxides applied at a concentration of 1.09% did not give significantly lower lettuce As concentrations than the 0.54% treatment. Simultaneous addition of lime with FeSO4 was essential. Ferrous sulfate with insufficient lime lowered soil pH and caused mobilization of Al, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb, Sr, and Zn. At the highest Fe oxide to lime ratios, Mn toxicity caused severe yield loss.