972 resultados para Boiling curve
Resumo:
1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.
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PURPOSE: We determined the effect of entrance pupil size on retinal illumination. The influence of unilateral miosis on the magnitude of the pupil light reflex was studied to ascertain how a clinically significant anisocoria influences the relative afferent pupil defect (RAPD). METHODS: Miosis was induced by topical 1% pilocarpine in the right eye of 14 healthy subjects with normal eyes. The interocular difference in retinal illumination was assessed by computerized pupillometry from the stimulus response curve of the right and left eyes. The main outcome measure was the RAPD, determined by computerized pupillography, at baseline and after pilocarpine-induced anisocoria. RESULTS: Induced anisocoria produced a significant change in RAPD from baseline (mean = 1.60 dB in the miotic eye, P = 0.007). However, anisocoria correlated with RAPD only in subjects with darkly pigmented irides (Pearson correlation coefficient 0.793, P = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In darkly pigmented eyes, entrance pupil size significantly influenced the retinal illumination. However, retinal illumination of lightly pigmented eyes is relatively independent of entrance pupil size, presumably due to extrapupillary transmission of light through the iris and sclera. This has important implications in understanding the potential influence of anisocoria on the RAPD and also greater susceptibility of lightly pigmented eyes to light toxicity.
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We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods which incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods not only allow for coe¢ cients to change over time, but also allow for the entire forecasting model to change over time. We nd that dynamic model averaging leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions and more sophisticated approaches such as those using time varying coe¢ cient models. We also provide evidence on which sets of predictors are relevant for forecasting in each period.
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In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a lack of identification may not be evident since the posterior of a parameter of interest may differ from its prior even if the parameter is unidentified. We show that this can even be the case even if the priors assumed on the structural parameters are independent. We suggest two Bayesian identification indicators that do not suffer from this difficulty and are relatively easy to compute. The first applies to DSGE models where the parameters can be partitioned into those that are known to be identified and the rest where it is not known whether they are identified. In such cases the marginal posterior of an unidentified parameter will equal the posterior expectation of the prior for that parameter conditional on the identified parameters. The second indicator is more generally applicable and considers the rate at which the posterior precision gets updated as the sample size (T) is increased. For identified parameters the posterior precision rises with T, whilst for an unidentified parameter its posterior precision may be updated but its rate of update will be slower than T. This result assumes that the identified parameters are pT-consistent, but similar differential rates of updates for identified and unidentified parameters can be established in the case of super consistent estimators. These results are illustrated by means of simple DSGE models.
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This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables, we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric speci cation. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neo-classical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.
Resumo:
We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods which incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods not only allow for coe¢ cients to change over time, but also allow for the entire forecasting model to change over time. We nd that dynamic model averaging leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions and more sophisticated approaches such as those using time varying coe¢ cient models. We also provide evidence on which sets of predictors are relevant for forecasting in each period.
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BACKGROUND: EMD 521873 (Selectikine), an immunocytokine comprising a DNA-targeting antibody, aimed at tumour necrosis, fused with a genetically modified interleukin-2 (IL-2) moiety, was investigated in this first-in-human phase I study. METHODS: Patients had metastatic or locally advanced solid tumours failing previous standard therapy. Selectikine was administered as a 1-hour intravenous infusion on 3 consecutive days, every 3weeks. A subgroup of patients also received 300mg/m(2) cyclophosphamide on day 1 of each cycle. Escalating doses of Selectikine were investigated with the primary objective of determining the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). RESULTS: Thirty-nine patients were treated with Selectikine alone at dose levels from 0.075 to 0.9mg/kg, and nine were treated at doses of 0.45 and 0.6mg/kg in combination with cyclophosphamide. A dose-dependent linear increase of peak serum concentrations and area under curve was found. The dose-limiting toxicity was grade 3 skin rash at the 0.9mg/kg dose-level; the MTD was 0.6mg/kg. Rash and flu-like symptoms were the most frequent side-effects. No severe cardiovascular side-effects (hypotension or vascular leak) were observed. At all dose-levels, transient increases in total lymphocyte, eosinophil and monocyte counts were recorded. No objective tumour responses, but long periods of disease stabilisation were observed. Transient and non-neutralising Selectikine antibodies were detected in 69% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: The MTD of Selectikine with or without cyclophosphamide administered under this schedule was 0.6mg/kg. The recommended phase II dose was 0.45-0.6mg/kg. Selectikine had a favourable safety profile and induced biological effects typical for IL-2.
Resumo:
‘Modern’ Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated, or near integrated, process. However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies and so cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agents believe inflation is integrated as in the ‘modern’ theories then they are making systematic errors concerning the statistical process of inflation. An alternative theory of the Phillips curve is developed that is consistent with the ‘true’ statistical process of inflation. It is demonstrated that United States inflation data is consistent with the alternative theory but not with the existing ‘modern’ theories.
Resumo:
The empirical finding of an inverse U-shaped relationship between per capita income and pollution, the so-called Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), suggests that as countries experience economic growth, environmental deterioration decelerates and thus becomes less of an issue. Focusing on the prime example of carbon emissions, the present article provides a critical review of the new econometric techniques that have questioned the baseline polynomial specification in the EKC literature. We discuss issues related to the functional form, heterogeneity, “spurious” regressions and spatial dependence to address whether and to what extent the EKC can be observed. Despite these new approaches, there is still no clear-cut evidence supporting the existence of the EKC for carbon emissions. JEL classifications: C20; Q32; Q50; O13 Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve; Carbon emissions; Functional form; Heterogeneity; “Spurious” regressions; Spatial dependence.Residential satisfaction is often used as a barometer to assess the performance of public policy and programmes designed to raise individuals' well-being. However, the fact that responses elicited from residents might be biased by subjective, non-observable factors casts doubt on whether these responses can be taken as trustable indicators of the individuals' housing situation. Emotional factors such as aspirations or expectations might affect individuals' cognitions of their true residential situation. To disentangle this puzzle, we investigated whether identical residential attributes can be perceived differently depending on tenure status. Our results indicate that tenure status is crucial not only in determining the level of housing satisfaction, but also regarding how dwellers perceive their housing characteristics. Keywords: Housing satisfaction, subjective well-being, homeownership. JEL classification: D1, R2.
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El tema principal del treball és sobre l'estudi teòric de l'estructura i reactivitat en carbens de Fischer de la forma (CO)5Cr=C(X)R (X= OH, NH2, OMe, NMe2 i R= CHCH2 i Ph). Particularment, el nostre interès va sorgir del tipus de reaccions de cicloadicció que donen lloc a la síntesi de productes naturals i fàrmacs de gran valor afegit. Hem estudiat els mecanismes de reacció dels casos més comuns de cicloanul•lació: la reacció de benzanul•lació de Dötz i ciclopentanulacions que es troben en competència amb el primer cas, derivats de l'inserció de acetilè i fenilacetilè. En l'últim pas de les reaccions que comporten la formació d'un sistema de més d'un anell, hi tenim una migració del complex metàl•lic de crom d'un extrem a un altre anomenat com rearranjament haptotròpic. Aleshores, hem investigat sobre els mecanismes de migració haptotròpica de Cr(CO)3 sobre hidrocarburs aromàtics policíclics analitzant l'efecte de la mida i la curvatura del sistema així com la complexació d'un segon fragment metàl•lic a la manera de coordinació als anells. D'una altre banda, vam estudiar l'aromaticitat en 54 cúmuls cíclics de molecules inorgàniques mitjançant metodologia desenvolupada al nostre grup de recerca i altres. Vam proposar la tècnica del scan-NICS com nova mesura quantitativa d'aromaticitat i reportar l'escassa correlació entre els distints índexs d'aromaticitat a la literatura. Finalment, com resultat de col•laboracions en estades de recerca, he desenvolupat propostes de mecanismes de reacció en sistemes catalítics de isonitrils i fosfinetà-amides i en dímers de gassos nobles.
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A preliminary study of the pharmacokinetic parameters of t-Butylaminoethanethiol (TBAESH) was performed after administration of a single dose (35 mg/kg) either orally or intravenously. Plasma or blood samples were treated with dithiothreitol, perchloric acid and, after filtration, submitted to further purification with anionic resin. In the final step the drug was retained on a cationic resin column, eluted with NaCl lM and detected according to the method of Ellman (1958). The results suggested a pharmacokinetic behavior related to a one open compartment model with the following values for the total drug: area under the intravenous curve (AUC i.v.): 443(+ ou -) 24.0; AUC oral: 85.5(+ ou -) 14.5 ug min.ml(elevado a -1); elimination rate constant: 0.069(+ ou -) 0.0055 min(elevado a -1), biological half-life: 10.0(+ ou -) 0.80 min; distribution volume 1.15(+ ou -) 0.15 ml/g; biodisponibility: 0.19(+ ou -) 0.02. From a pharmacokinetic standpoint, TBAESH seems to have no advantage over the analogous disulfide compound.
Resumo:
Whether or not macroeconomics is a science depends on the scientific nature of macroeconomic theories and how the discipline responds when the empirical evidence fails to match the underlying assumptions and predictions of the theories. By way of an example, four conditions for macroeconomics to be a science are developed and used to examine the 'modern' theories of the Phillips curve. It is found that while the discipline in general maintains one condition it routinely violates the other three. This suggests the macroeconomics discipline has some way to go before it can call itself a 'pure science.'