An improved methodology for the recovery of Zea mays and other large crop pollen, with implications for environmental archaeology in the Neotropics

We present a simple sieving methodology to aid the recovery of large cultigen pollen grains, such as maize (Zea mays L.), manioc (Manihot esculenta Crantz), and sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas L.), among others, for the detection of food production using fossil pollen analysis of lake sediments in the tropical Americas. The new methodology was tested on three large study lakes located next to known and/or excavated pre-Columbian archaeological sites in South and Central America. Five paired samples, one treated by sieving, the other prepared using standard methodology, were compared for each of the three sites. Using the new methodology, chemically digested sediment samples were passed through a 53 µm sieve, and the residue was retained, mounted in silicone oil, and counted for large cultigen pollen grains. The filtrate was mounted and analysed for pollen according to standard palynological procedures. Zea mays (L.) was recovered from the sediments of all three study lakes using the sieving technique, where no cultigen pollen had been previously recorded using the standard methodology. Confidence intervals demonstrate there is no significant difference in pollen assemblages between the sieved versus unsieved samples. Equal numbers of exotic Lycopodium spores added to both the filtrate and residue of the sieved samples allow for direct comparison of cultigen pollen abundance with the standard terrestrial pollen count. Our technique enables the isolation and rapid scanning for maize and other cultigen pollen in lake sediments, which, in conjunction with charcoal and pollen records, is key to determining land-use patterns and the environmental impact of pre-Columbian societies.

A methodology for in-situ and remote sensing of microphysical and radiative properties of contrails as they evolve into cirrus

Contrails and especially their evolution into cirrus-like clouds are thought to have very important effects on local and global radiation budgets, though are generally not well represented in global climate models. Lack of contrail parameterisations is due to the limited availability of in situ contrail measurements which are difficult to obtain. Here we present a methodology for successful sampling and interpretation of contrail microphysical and radiative data using both in situ and remote sensing instrumentation on board the FAAM BAe146 UK research aircraft as part of the COntrails Spreading Into Cirrus (COSIC) study.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Motivational, emotional, and behavioral correlates of fear of missing out

Social media utilities have made it easier than ever to know about the range of online or offline social activities one could be engaging. On the upside, these social resources provide a multitude of opportunities for interaction; on the downside, they often broadcast more options than can be pursued, given practical restrictions and limited time. This dual nature of social media has driven popular interest in the concept of Fear of Missing Out – popularly referred to as FoMO. Defined as a pervasive apprehension that others might be having rewarding experiences from which one is absent, FoMO is characterized by the desire to stay continually connected with what others are doing. The present research presents three studies conducted to advance an empirically based understanding of the fear of missing out phenomenon. The first study collected a diverse international sample of participants in order to create a robust individual differences measure of FoMO, the Fear of Missing Out scale (FoMOs); this study is the first to operationalize the construct. Study 2 recruited a nationally representative cohort to investigate how demographic, motivational and well-being factors relate to FoMO. Study 3 examined the behavioral and emotional correlates of fear of missing out in a sample of young adults. Implications of the FoMOs measure and for the future study of FoMO are discussed.

Urban surface energy balance models: model characteristics and methodology for a comparison study

Many urban surface energy balance models now exist. These vary in complexity from simple schemes that represent the city as a concrete slab, to those which incorporate detailed representations of momentum and energy fluxes distributed within the atmospheric boundary layer. While many of these schemes have been evaluated against observations, with some models even compared with the same data sets, such evaluations have not been undertaken in a controlled manner to enable direct comparison. For other types of climate model, for instance the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) experiments (Henderson-Sellers et al., 1993), such controlled comparisons have been shown to provide important insights into both the mechanics of the models and the physics of the real world. This paper describes the progress that has been made to date on a systematic and controlled comparison of urban surface schemes. The models to be considered, and their key attributes, are described, along with the methodology to be used for the evaluation.

Modelling methodology and forecast failure

We analyse by simulation the impact of model-selection strategies (sometimes called pre-testing) on forecast performance in both constant-and non-constant-parameter processes. Restricted, unrestricted and selected models are compared when either of the first two might generate the data. We find little evidence that strategies such as general-to-specific induce significant over-fitting, or thereby cause forecast-failure rejection rates to greatly exceed nominal sizes. Parameter non-constancies put a premium on correct specification, but in general, model-selection effects appear to be relatively small, and progressive research is able to detect the mis-specifications.

MALDI MS profiling of post-DRE urine samples highlights the potential of b-Microseminoprotein as a marker for prostatic diseases

BACKGROUND. To use spectra acquired by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) mass spectrometry (MS) from pre- and post-digital rectal examination (DRE) urine samples to search for discriminating peaks that can adequately distinguish between benign and malignant prostate conditions, and identify the peaks’ underlying biomolecules. METHODS. Twenty-five participants with prostate cancer (PCa) and 27 participants with a variety of benign prostatic conditions as confirmed by a 10-core tissue biopsy were included. Pre- and post-DRE urine samples were prepared for MALDI MS profiling using an automated clean-up procedure. Following mass spectra collection and processing, peak mass and intensity were extracted and subjected to statistical analysis to identify peaks capable of distinguishing between benign and cancer. Logistic regression was used to combine markers to create a sensitive and specific test. RESULTS. A peak at m/z 10,760 was identified as b-microseminoprotein (b-MSMB) and found to be statistically lower in urine from PCa participants using the peak’s average areas. By combining serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels with MALDI MS-measured b-MSMB levels, optimum threshold values obtained from Receiver Operator characteristics curves gave an increased sensitivity of 96% at a specificity of 26%. CONCLUSIONS. These results demonstrate that with a simple sample clean-up followed by MALDI MS profiling, significant differences of MSMB abundance were found in post-DRE urine samples. In combination with PSA serum levels, obtained from a classic clinical assay led to high classification accuracy for PCa in the studied sample set. Our results need to be validated in a larger multicenter prospective randomized clinical trial.

PRESENTATION. Experimental and behavioral economics. Theory, tools and topics

This note presents the special issue on Experimental and Behavioral Economics. The volume includes some recent contributions from these correlated disciplines –empirical the former and theoretical the latter– and their potential contribution to the intersection of Economics with Psychology and Sociology. The project “El papel de la comparación social en las decisiones económicas bajo incertidumbre” (Junta de Andalucía, P07-SEJ-03155)” provided us with inspiration and financial support to publish this volume.

Memory suppression can help people “unlearn” behavioral responses—but only for nonemotional memories

When encountering reminders of memories that we prefer not to think about, we often try to exclude those memories from awareness. Past studies have revealed that such suppression attempts can reduce the subsequent recollection of unwanted memories. In the present study, we examined whether the inhibitory effects extend even to associated behavioral responses. Participants learned cue–target pairs for emotional and nonemotional targets and were additionally trained in behavioral responses for each cue. Afterward, they were shown the cues and instructed either to think or to avoid thinking about the targets without performing any behaviors. In a final test phase, behavioral performance was tested for all of the cues. When the targets were neutral, participants’ attempts to avoid retrieval reduced accuracy and increased reaction times in generating behavioral responses associated with cues. By contrast, behavioral performance was not affected by suppression attempts when the targets were emotional. These results indicate that controlling unwanted recollection is powerful enough to inhibit associated behavioral responses—but only for nonemotional memories.

Resistance to the anticoagulant rodenticides – the deployment of the new molecular methodology to identify mutations of the VKORC1 ‘resistance gene’, and understanding their potential impact on treatment outcome

Anticoagulants rodenticides have already known for over half a century, as effective and safe method of rodent control. However, discovered in 1958 anticoagulant resistance has given us a very important problem for their future long-term use. Laboratory tests provide the main method for identification the different types of anticoagulant resistances, quantify the magnitude of their effect and help us to choose the best pest control strategy. The main important tests are lethal feeding period (LFP) and blood clotting response (BCR) tests. These tests can now be used to quantify the likely effect of the resistance on treatment outcome by providing an estimate of the ‘resistance factor’. In 2004 the gene responsible for anticoagulant resistance (VKORC1) was identified and sequenced. As a result, a new molecular resistance testing methodology has been developed, and a number of resistance mutations, particularly in Norway rats and house mice. Three mutations of the VKORC1 gene in Norway rats have been identified to date that confer a degree of resistance to bromadiolone and difenacoum, sufficient to affect treatment outcome in the field.

The greater whole: towards a synthesis of system dynamics and soft systems methodology

This paper makes a theoretical case for using these two systems approaches together. The theoretical and methodological assumptions of system dynamics (SD) and soft system methodology (SSM) are briefly described and a partial critique is presented. SSM generates and represents diverse perspectives on a problem situation and addresses the socio-political elements of an intervention. However, it is weak in ensuring `dynamic coherence'. consistency between the intuitive behaviour resulting from proposed changes and behaviour deduced from ideas on causal structure. Conversely, SD examines causal structures and dynamic behaviours. However, whilst emphasising the need for a clear issue focus, it has little theory for generating and representing diverse issues. Also, there is no theory for facilitating sensitivity to socio-political elements. A synthesis of the two called ‘Holon Dynamics' is proposed. After an SSM intervention, a second stage continues the socio-political analysis and also operates within a new perspective which values dynamic coherence of the mental construct - the holon - which is capable of expressing the proposed changes. A model of this holon is constructed using SD and the changes are thus rendered `systemically desirable' in the additional sense that dynamic consistency has been confirmed. The paper closes with reflections on the proposal and the need for theoretical consistency when mixing tools is emphasised.

Modelling as learning: a consultancy methodology for enhancing learning in management teams

This article reviews the experiences of a practising business consultancy division. It discusses the reasons for the failure of the traditional, expert consultancy approach and states the requirements for a more suitable consultancy methodology. An approach called ‘Modelling as Learning’ is introduced, its three defining aspects being: client ownership of all analytical work performed, consultant acting as facilitator and sensitivity to soft issues within and surrounding a problem. The goal of such an approach is set as the acceleration of the client's learning about the business. The tools that are used within this methodological framework are discussed and some case studies of the methodology are presented. It is argued that a learning experience was necessary before arriving at the new methodology but that it is now a valuable and significant component of the division's work.