Can nutrition be promoted through agriculture-led food price policies? A systematic review

Abstract Objective: To systematically review the available evidence on whether national or international agricultural policies that directly affect the price of food influence the prevalence rates of undernutrition or nutrition-related chronic disease in children and adults. Design: Systematic review. Setting: Global. Search strategy: We systematically searched five databases for published literature (MEDLINE, EconLit, Agricola, AgEcon Search, Scopus) and systematically browsed other databases and relevant organisational websites for unpublished literature. Reference lists of included publications were hand-searched for additional relevant studies. We included studies that evaluated or simulated the effects of national or international food-price-related agricultural policies on nutrition outcomes reporting data collected after 1990 and published in English. Primary and secondary outcomes: Prevalence rates of undernutrition (measured with anthropometry or clinical deficiencies) and overnutrition (obesity and nutrition-related chronic diseases including cancer, heart disease and diabetes). Results: We identified a total of four relevant reports; two ex post evaluations and two ex ante simulations. A study from India reported on the undernutrition rates in children, and the other three studies from Egypt, the Netherlands and the USA reported on the nutrition related chronic disease outcomes in adults. Two of the studies assessed the impact of policies that subsidised the price of agricultural outputs and two focused on public food distribution policies. The limited evidence base provided some support for the notion that agricultural policies that change the prices of foods at a national level can have an effect on population-level nutrition and health outcomes. Conclusions: A systematic review of the available literature suggests that there is a paucity of robust direct evidence on the impact of agricultural price policies on nutrition and health.

Bacillus subtilis natto: a non-toxic source of poly-γ-glutamic acid that could be used as a cryoprotectant for probiotic bacteria

It is common practice to freeze dry probiotic bacteria to improve their shelf life. However, the freeze drying process itself can be detrimental to their viability. The viability of probiotics could be maintained if they are administered within a microbially produced biodegradable polymer - poly-γ-glutamic acid (γ-PGA) - matrix. Although the antifreeze activity of γ-PGA is well known, it has not been used for maintaining the viability of probiotic bacteria during freeze drying. The aim of this study was to test the effect of γ-PGA (produced by B. subtilis natto ATCC 15245) on the viability of probiotic bacteria during freeze drying and to test the toxigenic potential of B. subtilis natto. 10% γ-PGA was found to protect Lactobacillus paracasei significantly better than 10% sucrose, whereas it showed comparable cryoprotectant activity to sucrose when it was used to protect Bifidobacterium breve and Bifidobacterium longum. Although γ-PGA is known to be non-toxic, it is crucial to ascertain the toxigenic potential of its source, B. subtilis natto. Presence of six genes that are known to encode for toxins were investigated: three component hemolysin (hbl D/A), three component non-haemolytic enterotoxin (nheB), B. cereus enterotoxin T (bceT), enterotoxin FM (entFM), sphingomyelinase (sph) and phosphatidylcholine-specific phospholipase (piplc). From our investigations, none of these six genes were present in B. subtilis natto. Moreover, haemolytic and lecithinase activities were found to be absent. Our work contributes a biodegradable polymer from a non-toxic source for the cryoprotection of probiotic bacteria, thus improving their survival during the manufacturing process.

The ideal self at play: the appeal of video games that let you be all you can be

Video games constitute a popular form of entertainment that allows millions of people to adopt virtual identities. In our research, we explored the idea that the appeal of games is due in part to their ability to provide players with novel experiences that let them “try on” ideal aspects of their selves that might not find expression in everyday life. We found that video games were most intrinsically motivating and had the greatest influence on emotions when players’ experiences of themselves during play were congruent with players’ conceptions of their ideal selves. Additionally, we found that high levels of immersion in gaming environments, as well as large discrepancies between players’ actual-self and ideal-self characteristics, magnified the link between intrinsic motivation and the experience of ideal-self characteristics during play.

Does convective aggregation need to be represented in cumulus parameterizations?

Tropical deep convection exhibits a variety of levels of aggregation over a wide range of scales. Based on a multisatellite analysis, the present study shows at mesoscale that different levels of aggregation are statistically associated with differing large-scale atmospheric states, despite similar convective intensity and large-scale forcings. The more aggregated the convection, the dryer and less cloudy the atmosphere, the stronger the outgoing longwave radiation, and the lower the planetary albedo. This suggests that mesoscale convective aggregation has the potential to affect couplings between moisture and convection and between convection, radiation, and large-scale ascent. In so doing, aggregation may play a role in phenomena such as “hot spots” or the Madden-Julian Oscillation. These findings support the need for the representation of mesoscale organization in cumulus parameterizations; most parameterizations used in current climate models lack any such representation. The ability of a cloud system-resolving model to reproduce observed relationships suggests that such models may be useful to guide attempts at parameterizations of convective aggregation.

What will be the risk-free rate and benchmark yield curve following European monetary union?

Using a linear factor model, we study the behaviour of French, Germany, Italian and British sovereign yield curves in the run up to EMU. This allows us to determine which of these yield curves might best approximate a benchmark yield curve post EMU. We find that the best approximation for the risk free yield is the UK three month T-bill yield, followed by the German three month T-bill yield. As no one sovereign yield curve dominates all others, we find that a composite yield curve, consisting of French, Italian and UK bonds at different maturity points along the yield curve should be the benchmark post EMU.

Can profitable trading strategies be derived from investment best-sellers?

A glance along the finance shelves at any bookshop reveals a large number of books that seek to show readers how to ‘make a million’ or ‘beat the market’ with allegedly highly profitable equity trading strategies. This paper investigates whether useful trading strategies can be derived from popular books of investment strategy, with What Works on Wall Street by James P. O'Shaughnessy used as an example. Specifically, we test whether this strategy would have produced a similarly spectacular performance in the UK context as was demonstrated by the author for the US market. As part of our investigation, we highlight a general methodology for determining whether the observed superior performance of a trading rule could be attributed in part or in entirety to data mining. Overall, we find that the O'Shaughnessy rule performs reasonably well in the UK equity market, yielding higher returns than the FTSE All-Share Index, but lower returns than an equally weighted benchmark

Can polar lows be objectively identified and tracked in the ECMWF operational analysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis?

Polar lows are maritime meso-cyclones associated with intense surface wind speeds and oceanic heat fluxes at high latitudes. The ability of the ERA-Interim (ERAI) reanalysis to represent polar lows in the North Atlantic is assessed by comparing ERAI and the ECMWF operational analysis for the period 2008-2011. First, the representation of a set of satellite observed polar lows over the Norwegian and Barents Seas in the operational analysis and ERAI is analysed. Then, the possibility of directly identifying and tracking the polar lows in the operational analysis and ERAI is explored using a tracking algorithm based on 850 hPa vorticity with objective identification criteria on cyclone dynamical intensity and atmospheric static stability. All but one of the satellite observed polar lows with a lifetime of at least 6 hours have an 850 hPa vorticity signature of a co-located mesocyclone in both the operational analysis and ERAI for most of their life cycles. However, the operational analysis has vorticity structures that better resemble the observed cloud patterns and stronger surface wind speed intensities compared to those in ERAI. By applying the objective identification criteria, about 55% of the satellite observed polar lows are identified and tracked in ERAI, while this fraction increases to about 70% in the operational analysis. Particularly in ERAI, the remaining observed polar lows are mainly not identified because they have too weak wind speed and vorticity intensity compared to the tested criteria. The implications of the tendency of ERAI to underestimate the polar low dynamical intensity for future studies of polar lows is discussed.